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April 10, 2013

Comments

Derek

And if you want to speak about VOLUMES, then look at how well Nokia feature phones and Ashas have sold. Nokia is still the market leader in feature phones.

Huber

@Hansu: >> But if game developers dont like MS taking a 30% slice of the pie through the app store then why do have no problems developing games for Apple platforms they take 30% cut and they don seem to mind.

This is easy:

First of all, while Apple and Google also take 30%, in exchange game publishers get access to a huge market. In addition, the respective App Stores promote new games.

Microsoft has a tiny market share for non-Win32 applications, so this does not apply here.

Secondly, only Apple enforces the 30% Apple Tax. OTOH you can create alternative App Stores for Android, so you can decide whether you give 30% to Google or not.

And the third point is that MS used to only sell Windows. Now they additionally want a 30% tax. Since Windows game publishers are used to take care of the distribution of their software, they neither want nor need MS to do this for them.

NoNameRequired

@Huber - Don't forget that Microsoft is also in the games business. Is there anyone in any market that would be happy to see a competitor as a gatekeeper and toll bridge to their customers?

Tester

@Derek:

It doesn't really matter that the most popular WP device runs on WP8 when the bulk of sales is still all the old WP7 devices combined.

In the real world these numbers mean, that, assuming a 5% share of total smartphone sales globally for WP, at most 2.5% is WP8.

For me as a developer that's simply not enough to target the platform. And that doesn't even factor in that due to older devices still in use, the WP8 user share is even lower right now.

You make the same old mistake again, cherry-picking the numbers that make WP look successful but at the same time ignoring all the 'but's that are admittedly well hidden in the article. But when I start some number crunching I look at everything that's being said.

In the past it has been my biggest complaint that WP7 and WP8 numbers are always mashed together by analyst companies. This is useless for me as a developer because WP7 and WP8 development are incompatible. And please don't tell me that WP7 apps run on WP8. Sure they do, but who knows for how long? And who knows for how long they are tolerated in the app store?

No, sorry, but the numbers in the article clearly tell me that WP is still not worth targetting.

Tester

Your biased opinions are not important.

The fact is, that Windows Phone 8 hovers far below 5% market share. So, having the option to do 2 apps for Android and iOS or one app for Android, iOS and WP8 the decision is clear.

I don't care what other developers do, the fact remains that right now WP8 development cannot amortize its costs for my employer.

I also don't care what links you grab off the internet. They don't magically create consumers that might spend money on our products. Counting app quantity is bullshit anyway. It's quality that matters. It's potential profit that matters. As a small scale developer we cannot afford to spend several months working on a WP project and get pitiful earnings.

So continue bragging with Italy's 14% market share. I can't say it surprises me the least that Italy is one of the market with lowest WP8 penetration (as in: it's a completely worthless 14% for the time being.)

B a r o n 9 5

Sorry, one small correction, in some poor countries like Indonesia, BB7 is the #1 competitor to low-end Android. In others, it is still Symbian. But by the latter part of this year, Symbian will go away, and except for Indonesia BB7 should be dying off as well.

Hansu

@Derek Cnet said it was north of 150k but I giess those are the ofiicial figures but the magick app that is missing s instagram and when if and when instagram arrives the last barriers will fall since many reviews have pointed out that WP lacks instagram and that is the big obstacle for many which means that then almost all major apps are on WP like Pandora, Spotify all the Angry Birds then people look all I need is there sure it's still not as big as iOS or android but Android had big spring cleaning a while back removing over 60k apps from Google play It's not the numbers that matter it's the quality.

Derek

I think Instagram is also coming but already you have this:
http://www.wpcentral.com/download-instagraph-windows-phone-right-now-instagram
http://www.wpcentral.com/instagram-photo-sharing-windows-phone-8-instagraph

But I really can't understand what good about Instagram anyway..

Winter

The MS astroturving gang is slacking. That is what you get when your minions work 9-5 office hours. You cannot keep up with internet time.

Just like MS themselves.

Tester

I said it before and I say it again:

All those user satisfaction stories are worthless. Time and again they will only show 3 things:

1. Dying platforms will get a very low rating because they normally die due to outdated feature sets and such.
2. The leading platform will get a disproportionately weak rating. That's simply because by pure force it will most easily attract customers that may not be convinced by its features.
3. Niche and nerd platforms will always score high. Not because they are particularly good but because they develop the strongest fanboy user bases. Any niche platform not scoring high will be relagated to 1 (dying).

Most people I know hate (make that *HATE*) Metro and wouldn't even think buying a Windows phone.

@Baron95:

I doubt anybody will dispute that right now WP is ranking solidly third. But here's the thing: Later this year two new platforms will be released - and it depends on their manufacturers' backing if they stand a chance. But, if they get solid backing they may just be what people who don't like Android may seek: Something different that's not Windows! If that is the case they will end up in third place.

I'll be blunt: As a developer I hope that both Tizen and Firefox tank. It'd make my life a lot easier because if they succeed we'd have to deal with some genuine market fragmentation which will set back app development. On the other hand, getting Microsoft out of the market may be worth it...

As for Asha: Today I saw an ad in the newspaper. They had a low cost Android phone for €77,00 and an Asha for €99,00. So, since Android can already beat a non-smartphone at price I can't see Asha going on for much longer, especially if Firefox manages to release something decent.

B a r o n 9 5

@Tester - I'm not trying to convince you to develop for WP8. Why are you so insistent on telling me you won't? I could care less. I'm simply pointing out that there is a healthy number of WP apps that eclipses all other platforms with the obvious exception of iOS and Android.

@Hansu - Instagram was iOS only until this month and it was only last week released for Android. So, up until last week, you could say that Instagram was missing for Android also. Don't be so selective. There is no Instagram, and I doubt there ever will be for Jolla, FF, Bada, BB7, BB10 etc that Tomi and the ballsuckers are so hot on promoting.

There are two separate competitions going on in Mobile. One is iOS vs Android, and iOS is paying developers and rewarding Apple at 5 (FIVE) times the rate for Android/Google.

The other competition is for which ecosystem will emerge as the distant #3 option. And on that competition WP is pulling away from the pac. Regardless of how many thousands of words Tomi writes.

Anonymous

@B a r o n 9 5 concerning your instagram being ios exclusive until only last week sorry but you are wrong by about a year. Instagram for android was released a year ago this month.

Winter

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols sums it up nicely:

Windows: It's over
http://www.zdnet.com/windows-its-over-7000013964/

B a r o n 9 5

@Anonymous - Instagram official app for Android was released on Google Play on March 13, 2013.

Derek

@Tester

Of course you deny user satisfaction surveys in which WP is on top or doing well. But what about this MKM consumer survey Tomi posted here? Yeah, of course that is ok you :D You are so funny and illogical, are you a girl?

zlutor

@Derek: "Any answer isn't good for you guys, you'll just deny everything. Lumia 920 is the most expensive phone in Lumia range and still it's selling well." - all good answer is good for me... :-)

But it is not so normal that flagship product is the most sold one in any portfolio. It indicates either the product is premium only - naturally can not be sold in high volumes, except it is made by Apple :-) - or the portfolio is not complete. See Volkswagen: neither the Audis nor the Porsches are the top selling item of their product ranges. Or Toyota vs. Lexus cars...

And no, L920 is not selling WELL. iPhone5, Galaxy S3/4 - yes, they sell well. All we can say that L920 is selling...

"I'll predict 7-8M Lumias sold in Q1 2013" - that would be a nice positive surprise! Do not get me wrong I would be more than happy to see those numbers but I doubt it will happen. We will see in some days...
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/04/nokia-corporation-adr-nok-q1-earnings-preview/

@Baron: "When, in fact, as I have always said, mid-2013 WP would be firmly established as the 3rd ecosystem" - with market share of 3-4%?! C'mon...

According to my opinion, any meaningful 3rd ecosystem should have to have ~15-20% market share minimum. Until that it is nothing else but an expensive hobby...

BTW. Somebody was constantly blaming NSN, suggesting selling it at any price. Any comment on this then: http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/04/baml-cautious-on-nokia-corporation-adr-nok-core-business/

'The company might sell its entire 50 percent stake or double down and buy a portion of Siemen’s stake in NSN. The analyst said, “We view this as the most likely outcome as this would somewhat offset Nokia’s weak core business and allow greater access to NSN cash."

Tester

@Derek:

The value of user satisfaction surveys depends largely on what questions were asked.

Any survey asking 'Do you like your current phone?' is bogus by default. It just misses out on all past users of a platform and their reasons to leave it.

In order to get a better picture people need to be asked about present and past experience. Otherwise you will inevitably miss the ones not satisfied with a product (in this case those changing one phone OS for another.)

WP also faces a much larger problem: Since the Metro interface is the same as on Win8 PCs anybody with a negative experience there will most likely be lost as a user - and never enter such surveys at all! The problem is simply that people can get an experience with the UI without ever using or having used a Windows phone. No user satisfaction rating can ever catch this. Once people have made up their mind that they don't like or even hate Metro on desktop, if they need to buy a new smartphone they'll choose a different platform with nearly 100% certainty.

Lelala

Honestly, it would be difficult to do even more things wrong than MS is already doing wrong, currently.
If they are not changing their "strategy", they will be todays Novell/SCO/etc.
(Do they have a strategy at all??)

Anonymous

@B a r o n 9 5 do you mean officially introduced or updated ? because the app was updated on march 13th and a look at its version number(3.4.4) tells me it has been around for a while. besides that, a look at http://blog.instagram.com/post/20411305253/instagram-for-android-available-now will show clearly it was written a year ago.

zlutor

@Baron95: "You must be kidding right? Even Apple won't have 20% smartphone market share for long." - Apple is premium, they do not need huge volumes/big market share to be profitable. It is not the Nokia way...

"Third place means better than anything else except first and second. It means the bronze medal. It still gets you on the podium in Formula 1 and all olympic sports. It is a pretty good place."

Sure. Especially if you make money with it. And it is not the case for WP - regardless it is 3rd or not.

It is not Apple who earns insane amount of money with their devices/services. Apple is premium, all the rest need HUGE volume to be profitable regardless their position in the race.

3-4-5% share is far-far away from it. It is minuscule, nothing, irrelevant. Any meaning ful 3rd playesr/ecosystem must have bigger share...

Do you know the old joke from Reagen-Brezsnyiev era? "Competion held between Reagen and Brezsnyiev to decide whose country is more superior. Apparently Reagen won. Pravda has given an article about the event in such way: our leader, comrade Brezsnyiev, thanks to his enormous effort, won the silver medal while Reagen, the imperialist dog, achieved position last but one..."

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