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« We passed 4 million lifetime visits to this blog over weekend - thank you to readers | Main | The Annual Mobile Industry Numbers and Stats Blog - Yep, this year we will hit the Mobile Moment.. »

March 01, 2013

Comments

Derek

Windows Phone is gaining some momentum:
http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/global/News/Smartphone-Competition-Hots-Up

zlutor

@Spawn: "It was Elop's fault to push and promise low segment Lumia while not being able to deliver. Microsoft never ever promised WP for low end." - yes, true.

I just wanted to say WP7.x simply did not let building low(er) end smartphones. Nothing more, nothing less. Elop could not do anything with it.

Of course, it is a good question how smart it is to declare a platform exclusive if you know for sure you will not be able to build a full-range portfolio on top of it.

Maybe he did not expected collapsing Symbian market before WP8 arrives...

Anyway, the whole WP adventure is a nightmare by this time - according to my opinion. We never know what future gives us but...

Winter

@Derek
"Windows Phone is gaining some momentum:"

A retreating glacier will shoot off ice streams once in a while.

The questions are, could WP survive on those markets alone? Did consumers buy the phones full price? Did they know what they were buying?

Derek

First you guys said that Kantar numbers are reliable. Now when they show that WP is getting decent market share you say those numbers are invalid. Funny. Kantar clearly states "With Windows now holding respectable market shares across most major European countries, a key question is who is losing out?"

Tester

@Derek:

The Kantar numbers don't tell anything new:

There's 2 markets where WP is above 6% market share. It has been like that for several months now.

So why are these 2 particular markets higher than the rest where WP indeed does not gain ANY traction (US is a joke, Germany as Europe's largest market has DECLINING market share!)?

This question needs to be answered definitively before anyone can tell how WP will perform.

Anyway, there's very little point comparing numbers from now with ones from a year ago when Nokia's Lumia rollout had barely started. Of course you get growing market volume if you start with zero! The performance this year will be interesting. Can WP grow further or will it remain where it is? Was the increase purely due to Nokia's market presence? It's still far, far too early to bring out the champagne and declare victory.

As for this one:

>> "With Windows now holding respectable market shares across most major European countries, a key question is who is losing out?"

Reading such nonsense when the market share is anything BUT respectable in most countries makes me question the whole analysis (not the data, but the interpretation.) Obviously a lot of money was spent to make stuff look better than it really is, the main problem that has been plaguing WP since its release. It's right now at approx. 5% in these markets, which, if I remember correctly has been Tomi's estimate where it will land - a bit more here, a bit less there.

If it goes to 10%, we may start talking about 'gaining traction' and 'holding respectable market share'. So far Italy is the only country where this has happened - not just the only country in Europe but the only country in the entire world!

Derek

In Finland Lumias are the current market leaders. And it's not only because Finns support Nokia, they really like WP. They didn't buy so many Nokia smartphones when iPhone and Androids were much better devices than aging Symbians. UK is doing pretty good also.

Asko

@Derek "In Finland Lumias are the current market leaders. And it's not only because Finns support Nokia, they really like WP. They didn't buy so many Nokia smartphones when iPhone and Androids were much better devices than aging Symbians."

Yes, in Finland people and companies are buying Lumias. I see only two reasons for that. The first is that Lumias are on sale, and the second is that they want proudly to support failing Nokia.

Tester

A general piece of advice regarding any kind of article about Mobile on the internet:

Most are so poorly researched that it leaves me stunned. This isn't isolated to Windows Phone but in whole I experienced a very unhealthy pro-Microsoft and anti-Google bias in far too many of them. Which is why I take most of WP reporting with a grain of salt. There's just too much FUD and smokescreening out there that can cloud the real picture.

As for Finland, is it really that surprising that people think that buying Nokia may help the country's economy? (What a foolish belief, btw! There's hardly anything Finnish in those Lumias...)

If you want to prove that WP is succeeding you can't just pick the handful of markets where it's showing good numbers. You also have to take a look at markets like the US where numbers are utterly dismal (i.e. it's not even close to succeeding there!)

With a market share below 10% regional anomalies can create quite drastic distortions. With Android (and iOS to a lesser degree) the same distortions barely register.

Lasko

@Derek

"Windows now holding respectable market shares across most major European countries, a key question is who is losing out?"

The answer is quite simple, it is Windows Phone resp. Nokia losing out. Why? Read on.

As always, data is nothing without background information, especially when it comes to relative data.

- "Windows gaining popularity with consumers ... in the past year ...".

Yes, Windows Phone has grown on a year-to-year scale. But on a quarter-to-quarter scale we clearly see that Windows Phone is not growing, but rather in a steep decline.

- "... an increase of 240%."

Yes, Windows Phone has grown 240% on a year-to-year scale, but *relative* to Windows Phone and to the horrible previous year. If A sells 1 device in 2011 and 10 devices in 2012 A has grown by 1000%, if B sells 1000 devices in 2011 and 1100 in 2012 B has grown by just 10%, but B has sold 100-times more devices than A.

So if you want to judge the growth you will have to put it in relation to the markt expansion and the competition - and there we see the same picture as before - Windows Phone is declinig.

- "Nokia is spearheading this growth, with the Lumia 800 the leader among the Windows handsets."

And here is finally the answer to your question. Nokia (as in Lumia x00) is growing at the cost of Nokia (as in Lumia x20). Nokia is dumping the Windows Phone 7 devices left, right and center.

You can get those devices in most European countries at discounters for about ~100 euros, most probably less now, unlocked and provider-free. This is where to growth comes from, and this is where the positive revenue in Q4 comes from.

This perfectly allows for a short-term push of market share and income, but it comes at a major cost: ASP hits rock bottom and it completely cannibalizes the market for Windows Phone 8, Lumia x20, devices.

Have you ever wondered why Nokia never releases split numbers for Windows Phone 7 and Windows Phone 8? here is your answer. Lumia x00 has a short-term growth at the massive cost of Lumia x20.

We can even quanitify 'short-term', by looking at the quarterly results (not the yearly ones). It helped Nokia to push sales for tqo quarters, and is now again in a downward spiral.


The *numbers* for Kantar are quite correct, the interpretation isn't.

Cristian Rau

@Lasko

All your analysis can apply to old Nokia as well, Samsung, LG, etc. All manufacturers are selling phones at discount points in order to gain market share or to empty stocks, etc.
"240% over the previous year which was horrible" - it doesn't matter what adjective you attach to last years sales, could be horrible, abysmal, poor, etc. The fact still remains that 240% is a pretty respectable gain, over average. You make it sound that these numbers don't matter, how do you measure momentum if one asks you to?
I don't care much about how the market looks in a particular day, but I do care about trends and movements. If I have 3 companies with 30-40-30 market share which one is wining? The one that looses 5% every month or the one that gains 7% every month? How can you tell me which one will gain or loose by just looking at a snapshot of day X?

Winter

As many people try to sell us the delusion that windows phone is getting traction in the market, I have tabulated world wide absolute mobile phone sales of Android, iOS, and WP. There is no traction at all. 4Q2012 is hardly above 2Q2012 and 1Q2010.

Quarterly mobile phone sales in million units of Android, iOS, and WP. Used are the numbers by Tomi Ahonen (+ added for layout)

Quarte +Andr +iOS +WP +All
4Q2012 147.3 47.8 5.8 217.2
3Q2012 121.2 26.9 3.3 171.4
2Q2012 102.4 26.0 4.6 153.0
1Q2012 +80.8 35.1 2.3 145.2
4Q2011 +76.0 37.0 2.0 155.0
3Q2011 +56.4 17.1 1.3 117.7
2Q2011 +49.0 20.5 0.5 108.0
1Q2011 +35.4 18.2 2.0 101.2
4Q2010 +30.1 16.2 1.7 +99.4
3Q2010 +20.0 14.1 2.4 +80.0
2Q2010 +11.4 +8.4 1.6 +61.7
1Q2010 ++5.45 +8.8 4.0 +54.5
1-4Q09 ++1.75 +8.3 2.6 +43.8 (year/4~2.5Q)

(last row, year totals averaged over 4 quarters)

Lasko

@Cristian

Please re-read the post. Those percentages are *completely irrelevant* for growth, absolute numbers matter. It doesn't matter wheter you grow 1%, 10%, 100% or 1000% if your competition sells hundred times the devices. It doesn't matter how much you grow in comparison to *yourself* if your competition grows way more.

That is *exactly* what happens to Windows Phone and Nokia. Yes, they have grown 240% and sell more devices than just year ago, but they sell way *less* devices than their competitors and therefore the market share goes *down*.

This is where you have to look at to find a trend: does the gap between me and the competition close or widen, because then I gain or lose market share.

"The one that looses 5% every month or the one that gains 7% every month?"

The one that gains 7% every month *compared to the competition*, *not* their own numbers - the same way Windows Phone *loses* market share compared to the competition, altough is grows compared to their own numbers.

If you gain X% and your competition grows by X+Y% you lose Y% market share. It is a simple as that.

The number of people killed by sharks has been risen by 300%, from 1 to 3 within a year; the number of people killed by guns has been risen by 50%, from 100.000 to 150.000 within a year. According to your logic sharks have become a way more important problem then gun violence. Doesn't sound quite right, does it?

"All manufacturers are selling phones at discount points in order to gain market share or to empty stocks."

Have you ever seen dropping the price of a Galaxy Sn by 80% when the Galaxy Sn+1 is released? Me neither.

top7mobileapps

The most upcoming device of nokia that will launched in 2013 and top most featured also http://mobileupdate24.blogspot.com/2013/03/nokia-eos-could-sport-decadent-chassis.html

MarcoAustria

Nokias misery next part: The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/2253069/nokia-sides-with-apple-in-samsung-patent-dispute
"Nokia, in somewhat of a bizarre move, has come out in support for Apple in its ongoing patent dispute with Samsung."

Nokia's attitude has changed greatly: they went from gentle giant to trashing around gnome.
It shows that Nokias management is clueless on how to beat the competition and
has taken on Elop (=Microsoft) tactics, only they are now to small and have not the amount of cash to succeed.

Lasko

Nokias misery next part #2: My friend is the enemy.

As ZDnet and The Verge reports [1] Nokia has filed another report to the SEC containing that either Microsoft is releasing a Surface Phone in direct competition to Nokia or dropping Windows Phone at all.

As there have been rumors for quite some time now, but we only now seeing Nokia officially filing this to the SEC assume that Nokia has gathered some serious insider information.


[1] http://www.theverge.com/2013/3/9/4082036/nokia-sec-filing-microsoft-smartphone-hints

AtTheBottomOfTheHilton

It is about 3 years now of the 5 year agreement with Microsoft and Nokia is worse than ever, even worse than before the agreement. If we are going to look at things from the bright side that should be that it is only 2 years left now on the agreement. After this agreement Nokia should go back developing Symbian and Linux based phones, there is no other alternative really. Symbian was never really that bad and I with Nokia 808 it really showed how well it progressed. Nokia needs to go back to that and start over and maybe acquire Jolla.

Let's hope Nokia survives in this prison with Microsoft.

Tester

>> Nokia should go back developing Symbian and Linux based phones

Sorry, but that train has passed once and for all. Symbian is DEAD (with a capital everything!) and no miracle will ever help to revive it. People just wouldn't buy it. It's ancient history.

If Nokia needs sales volume, the only option is Android. Everything else is just filler that by itself can't just sustain a company anymore. Most of those upstarts will fail dismally. People who are interested in a strong ecosystem have precisely 2 choices: Apple and Android. The rest will be for the eternally dissatisfied, the ones who need to be different and the clueless fools who don't understand what they buy.

Kenny

Nokia can't go back to developing Symbian, MeeGo or Meltemi. Elop has burnt all of Nokia's bridges by dismantling the development teams. Neither can Nokia jump into developing Android. It will be dead before it can come out with its first Android phone.

What this means is that Nokia is now thoroughly dependent on Microsoft. It has no alternative platform, nothing in the works, nothing! In future Nokia's survival will be at the pleasure of Microsoft. If MS decides to make its own WP8 phone and Nokia becomes a competitor MS can kill of Nokia with a stroke of the pen.

What fool CEO would put his company in such a helpless position relative to another company? Only a mole!

Tester

@Kenny:

Unless some contract prevents them from doing so, of course they can develop Android. They just have to do it the right way:

1. Don't tell anyone!
2. Don't tell anyone!
3. Don't scrap or osborne your existing products.

So, assuming Nokia started developing an Android phone now, in secrecy, they could have it ready in time for the Christmas season.

But they'd still be able to sell their WP phones for all these months. Honestly, even if they did Android, they shouldn't stop doing WP. If they don't have to sink all their money into advertising an unpopular platform there's still some profit in it.

chithanh

Now seekingalpha published an article which claims that "Nokia Will Probably Launch Android Phones"
http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/1266071

If Nokia's CEO has learned anything from the Burning Platforms memo, it is that if Nokia is working on Android Phones then better not tell anybody about it.

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