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March 19, 2013

Comments

cycnus

@Jack1059

I agree with you.
Tomi got the concept right with BB but screw up the prediction.

Tomi said in the past that BB were loosing the cool factor. Most BB user don't upgrade their BB phone, but upgrade the other phone. What Tomi miss were, after a couple of month of using the other phone+bb, most of this BB user will dump the BB completely and start using BBM alternative. This is the reason that BB usage patern were going over the cliff.

Tomi assuming that this ex-BB user love their BB, and will go back to BB? I think it's perfectly safe to say that most ex-BB user will say they have a sour relationship with BB. Reason? BB hang most of the time (must remove the battery and restart the phone), slow internet, internet problem, BBM can only talk to BB user, so no point of using BB if friend also already move to other platform.

And not to mention that all the new BB user in developed country were buying BB because it's cheap, BB7 device were as low as US$80 now. they were not the target of BB10.

So, I think BB will have a hard time. a VERY HARD time to fight against Android/iOS & FireFox.

cycnus

test again???
i can't post again???

N900

Tizen will be interesting. Last year you predicted Tizen to be released in 2012. Now it's second half 2013 and 10 percent of Samsung including a real flagship. I just think that is a bold prediction, but we will see. Now that Nokia is dead you can at least spare yourself the work to explain every month why it is still dead.

zlutor

@keitai denwa: "Samsung has strong marketing, adequate HW engineering but fails at software engineering" - you know, they copied Nokia in every aspect... :-)

Jonas Lind

Assume that Samsung can deliver a Tizen phone like the Nokia N9. Bravo. But they still have the problem of a non existing app eco system. Of course they will support HTML5, though that is far from enough to offer fast and seamless apps with a native GUI/UX. However, if Samsung is serious about Tizen they can put their financial muscles behind supporting a cross platform tool that will convert Android and iOS native code base into Tizen in a seamless and bug free way.

chithanh

It seems that Tizen and FirefoxOS APIs will be compatible at least to some degree. So any success that Tizen's app ecosystem enjoys can also benefit FirefoxOS and vice versa.

And the magic how they will get developers to produce apps is called "cross-plattform development frameworks". If Samsung manages to convince a significant number of developers to switch to such frameworks then there should be no shortage of apps.

Tester

>> if Samsung is serious about Tizen they can put their financial muscles behind supporting a cross platform tool that will convert Android and iOS native code base into Tizen in a seamless and bug free way.

I doubt this can ever happen. iOS code: no chance! It's built around that Objective-C abomination and is nonportable to other APIs because it's a completely different language and the system is inseparably tied to that language. You can also bet that Apple will do anything in their power, from lawsuits to extortion to kill any such effort.

Android Java apps - maybe. Native - don't hold your breath.

My main issue with Tizen right now is that all demonstrations I have seen had a definitive meh-factor. It didn't connect visually at all. The first rule in selling stuff is to make it look nice though. If the surface doesn't persuade, it'll be much harder for the system, it might also imply that app development capabilities are limited.

zlutor

It seems N9 owners wants to keep it a float: http://www.change.org/en-GB/petitions/nokia-corporation-bug-fixing-for-nokia-n9

What a sad thing Nokia abandoned it... :-(

MH

About Lenovo-Nokia potential

Thanks to ThinkPad, Lenovo have fantastic brand visibility in corporate IT departments... those same departments that buy company mobile phones.

While IT no longer has the same power to force everyone to use a work phone, there is still a lot of volume in phones bought for the lower ranks (typical BB users).

So a WP8 offering - maybe Think-branded and not cool but durable - could sell well into this Microsoft-addicted environment. On the other hand forcing a touch UI onto their desktop OS offering is definitely alienating some formerly loyal IT types and having suffered years of rapacious pricing due to the Microsoft software monopoly an IT dept. with sense will avoid even greater lock-in.

However just like their tablet offerings, Windows on the ThinkPad tablet and Android on the Idea-branded ones, Lenovo will offer whatever OS appeals most to the target market. They really don't care what OS you use as long as they get to supply the hardware (one of the few companies that will sell you a laptop that doesn't have Windows).

MH

Oops - forgot this... if Lenovo were to buy Nokia I think because it is such a strong brand they would keep it as a brand in its own right, just like ThinkPad computers where you have to search to find the word 'Lenovo' on the machine.

I wonder if they would re-introduce the "Communicator" sub-brand?

vladkr

it's interesting that Siemens is about to leave NSN; how will it influence Nokia's destiny ?

winter

If you wan to know what will happen this year? Cheaper smartphones:

Eric Schmidt: $70 Android Smartphones coming soon
http://androidcommunity.com/eric-schmidt-70-android-smartphones-coming-soon-20120228/

When asked when will smartphones cost less his answer was simple — next year. This years $400 phone will be $100 next year. Although that is an obvious answer and only a joke he did have a more serious comment that shortly followed.

While speaking he claimed phones will reach the $70 dollar price point next year for smartphones running on the Android platform. And not on contract but as an actual price point. This will be achievable in the next couple of months and possibly next year.

zlutor

@Tomi: http://www.4-traders.com/SIEMENS-AG-436605/news/Siemens-Indicates-Likely-Exit-from-Nokia-Siemens-Networks-JV-in-2013-16564212/

"Siemens Indicates Likely Exit from Nokia Siemens Networks JV in 2013" - sounds interesting...

zlutor

@winter: since even the full touch Ashas cost more than 70$ I hardly believe that soo cheap - and performing(!) - Android devices are producible...

Wayne Borean


What is really interesting is that all of the Smartphone Operating Systems are based on Unix/Linux kernels except for Windows. That so many different companies/OS Projects decided on one particular architecture indicates that the basic design philosophy by Ritchie and Thompson was incredibly prescient.

Wayne

newbie reader

No, I do not see Tizen rising.

// Samsung still shipped 41% of all Android phones sold in the fourth quarter. If Samsung wanted, they could ride this train into the sunset, happy and contented. Except they aren't. //

And they aren't. They could, but real Tizen preview says, they aren't. They obviously could do Tizen better, but they don't want. Looks they're just not serious Tizen.

This is very logical.

1. Sammy is aiming at top-end of the market, where all juicy money sits in. A working instrument to do this is Android. They're confident that they can get more and more of top smartphone marketshare in Android

2. Serious Tizen efforts would hurt Android, which now means also hurt Samsung. Sammy just doesn't need top-end Tizen right now. For what reason? Why spoil working strategy? Elop is not hired by Samsung, AFAIK

3. So why Tizen is here at all?
Tizen is bada replacement. Tizen is ***Plan B, in case if Google will try to spoil Android turf.***

However, while Google IS NOT messing with Android, while Sammy has fantastic Android experience, Tizen's role is just to be here, and not much else. Bada is dead, Tizen is to replace it, not much else.

In case they need it, they would start working on it seriously, not from zero level, that's why it is here at all. But right now they do not need it.

This logic explains all this HTML5 lame stuff.

newbie reader

// And they aren't.
I had better to put "they are (content)", sorry.

notzed

There's plenty of room for more operating systems. In the 80s we had a lot, and it was a lot more vibrant and exciting place than the 90s were. And obviously the market has grown somewhat since then.

The boring 90s were a direct result of the wintel market abuse. We're already seeing google and apple dominance allowing them to slacken off the pace.

For the small isv's making no money in mobile, more dilution wont make any difference. And ones making money can afford to port their software - and make even more money.

Exciting times.

zlutor

interview with Elop: http://www.katsomo.fi/?progId=171919

Tester

@notzed:

I tend to disagree. I *am* one of the small ISVs and a significant increase in fragmentation would seriously hurt my business because it'd mean more work for less profit - or as you say, no profit at all anymore. Right now it's possible to make money in mobile with a small business, granted, it's not much but it's enough to make a living.

More fragmentation would be a repeat of the Java Mobile times of 5-10 years back where you had to support 10+ platforms, all with their own quirks, bugs and limitations. The carriers' stores also had their insane requirements which often resulted in software being total garbage because lowest end crapphones had to be supported. And what was the result: As soon as a single platform came out that was strong enough to displace that system, all developers switched there in an instant, leaving the big mess happily behind.

Believe me, nobody in software development wants back there - not even the bigshots. As long as the mobile OSs remain as mutually incompatible as they are right now the smaller ones will inevitably lose. No sane developer would put the same amount of manpower behind a 2% system like Windows Phone than systems with 10+x the penetration like Android and iOS.

Anyway, my guess is that most of the upstarts won't make a significant impact. If they have some means of running Android apps they'd be in a somewhat better position but don't expect to have a large amount of software to appear magically. Most will just be a repeat of the current Windows Phone situation, i.e. a fight for the breadcrumbs left over by the big ones.

And don't expect people to be stupid. Even though some analysts claim that OS doesn't matter, Windows Phone is ample proof to the contrary. If OS didn't matter it would have 10+% market share because under the hood it's still an ok system. If OS didn't matter, Nokia wouldn't have lost 90% of its user base by switching OSs. Those people left Nokia because they use an OS nobody wants. So - people know what iOS and Android are. They will know that other systems are incompatible. They know that if they may have to use apps, they will have to use an OS with a strong ecosystem. None of the upstarts can offer that. So where does that leave them? Right: precisely in one spot: Current feature phone owners who want to upgrade but not pay for it! Quite appealing...

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