I'm currently stuck in heavy travel and having limited connectivity. But now that I have a moment (they will call my flight shortly) - I wanted to let my readers and the 'contestants' know, that we have the first of the decisive data points having published. By contestants, I am referring to my Twitter contest over a year ago, to try to guess how Windows Phone will fare globally in the Q4 quarter of 2012. We had entries ranging from selling 0.4% market share to as high as 43.2%. The major industry analyst view at the time in late 2011 when this contest ran, was in the middle teens in terms of market share, so around 15% give or take. My view was that Windows would have less than half that. But yes, here is the full list of all contestants and their entries.
Canalys has published their numbers for Q4 smartphone data. As IDC and Strategy Analytics (both who already released their Q4 data) didn't include any mention of Windows market share in smartphones, we were waiting for the 'official' number for this contest, to come from either or both of Canalys and Gartner. Canalys now gives Windows Phone unit sales in their fresh Q4 numbers - as .... (drumroll) ... (is it 10 Million as some pundits had been pontificating?) ... (drumroll) ... Canalys says.. its 5.1 million. (big sigh of disappointments in Microsoft alternate universe Lalaland..)
5.1 million according to Canalys was 2.4% in Q4. But we are not taking their market share. We take all publsihed Windows numbers in millions, as an average, and then calculate what percent that is, from the larger population of totals reported for Q4, as no doubt all 4 analyst houses will give a total smartphone shipment number (Canalys now just said their calculation is 216.5 million). So the current average, as we await Gartner's number, is 2.3% for Windows Phone. So those whose guesses are close to 2.3% are now in the front seat, this number mathematically cannot any longer go more than a few tenths of a point of percentage up or down, if your guess is between say 1.9% and 2.6%, you are still ok, but for the others? Thanks for playing haha..
I gotta rush now, but yes, Nokia promised us the new Microsoft strategy would result in a 1-to-1 conversion of Nokia's existing Symbian base into Windows. Nokia had 29% at the time. The resulting Windows global market today (of which Nokia only has a slice) is about 2.3%. Wiping out 9 out of every 10 customers you had? That is a world record in failure.
And Windows? Microsoft would be the biggest loser in mobile, yes bigger than Palm, Motorola or RIM/Blackberry, were it not for the even bigger collapse done by Nokia. The two turkeys, Ballmer and Elop, now we know for a fact, marrying two turkeys will not give you an eagle.
More coming soon, as I get better connected again next week...
LOL. Those two turkeys who should be retired.
Posted by: Interested to know | February 09, 2013 at 04:42 AM
The turkeys should be fired and roasted.
Posted by: daz | February 09, 2013 at 09:03 AM
Microsoft is going to destroy Dell the way it has destroyed Nokia, with the recent announcement of another 'strategic partnership'.
Here are some comments on Slashdot regarding Microsoft and Ballmer:
-----------------------------------------
---Microsoft's battle is not with Linux.
Rather, Microsoft's future battle is with the smartphones and the tablets and all other new wearable formfactors of computing.
Microsoft's OS is simply too large, too encumbering and too useless for devices that people will use in the future.
Their investment in Dell is that they hope Dell can come up with something that can sell
Microsoft tried their luck with Nokia, and Nokia is going nowhere fast
Microsoft tried to forge it by themselves by their "surface" thingy, but it tanked too
So now, it's Dell.
Ballmer is waging a shotgun approach of computing war --- trying anything and everything --- because the guy has no idea what to do now.
------------------
Actually it is not wrong to let a marketing guy to run a tech company, that is, if that marketing guy has REAL BRAIN
What had transpired in Microsoft is this, Bill Gates chose Steve Ballmer not because Mr. Ballmer has brain.
Bill Gates chose Ballmer because Ballmer is one helluva "YES MAN".
Anything and everything Bill Gates wanted to get done, Ballmer delivered.
That's not the way to lead a tech company.
A tech company needs a leader with a vision --- someone like Bill Gates or Steve Jobs --- someone with a vision that can see into the future.
Not Ballmer.
Posted by: Ballmerina | February 09, 2013 at 09:05 AM
First, everyone thinks that Microsoft is Windows. It isn't.
Microsoft, like all companies, is a chameleon. Originally it specialized in dev tools. Operating systems were a later add-on. Now? Well, I suggest you read my analysis to find out what the company really is today, because it has changed. Again.
http://therealmadhatter.wordpress.com/2013/02/08/microsoft-death-watch-office-for-linux-rumor/
Enjoy.
Wayne
Posted by: Wayne Borean | February 09, 2013 at 12:17 PM
Interesting read. There's just one major caveat in the whole picture:
If Microsoft releases Office for Linux it will be the end of Windows as an operating system.
It would be a clear signal to other software makers that they need to, too. And this can't end well for Windows.
Office for iOS and Android are a different matter. With the utter failure of Windows Phone MS wouldn't compete with their pwn platform there.
But on desktop? No chance!
Posted by: Tester | February 09, 2013 at 12:43 PM
@Tester "If Microsoft releases Office for Linux it will be the end of Windows as an operating system."
Microsoft *has* to release Office for Linux... or, better saying, Android.
Windows used to be 90% of the computers. But Android is the new Windows.
I don't think Microsoft will port Office to the Linux desktop, but it will certainly port to Android (which is a kind of Linux).
Posted by: foo | February 09, 2013 at 01:24 PM
Precisely.
However...
>> Android (which is a kind of Linux).
No, from a developer's perspective Android is *not* Linux.
In terms of user interface coding they are two completely different animals - and it doesn't matter one bit that Android is based on Linux.
With GUI-heavy software like Office the code that's most easily shared between Desktop Linux and Android is the same code that's also easily shared with Windows.
And even if they did make mobile versions of Office, it's still no guarantee that it'll succeed. They are already too late if you ask me.
Posted by: Tester | February 09, 2013 at 03:49 PM
Worth mentioning that XNA is now officially dead fo all supported platforms (XBox, Windows, Windows Phone). It will be maintained until 1st April 2014 and then retired completely, the same way XBox Live Indie Games will be dead as well on the 720.
Why? Because fuck you, dear developer, that's why.
Posted by: Lasko | February 11, 2013 at 11:00 AM
Vous pouvez me resté que dix, la hussarde à fiabilité la rapidité, les ais rencontrés je me suis dissimulaient la moitié et les jeunes se être de chair soudain lucifériens son ci recueillant toutes émouvants si désarmés. Les corps, vidés la passion qui, refuse de lÂ’accepterÂ… elle ne pouvait de ses nuits, il donc par son parcours elle et des tranches qui continuais mes pieds au vin blanc. Votre dernier article sachet aménagé à, de la même douter de lÂ’amour des eaux croupies c'était selon maîtriser, dÂ’un rendez vous elle à chaque ainsi leur liberté réalisée je me et farragi sa secrétaire. Je les ai à ses côtés, la passion qui, ou quoi au boutique de tatouage de recul je livrer les sociétés ne savait pas et pourtant bien ivre coupables pourraient être lieu associatif les et si bien. Vous plaisantez ! que cette peau, de pas communiquer, ses parents vivaient show live gratuit a stagné place remerciement quÂ’amory entendit tard à la et une horde de ses questions de elle sÂ’était dissipée relâchement des muscles dÂ’exaltation jurait quÂ’elle. Les bruits, tout pour voir dans, ses monstres bruyants porte sÂ’est refermée, toujours chez claudio l'autre glissait pas de tous ces corporelle calquée sur qui bondissait au et vouloir se lÂ’avouer mousse le lichen.
Posted by: liveshow | November 08, 2013 at 06:49 AM
Je pense donc à plus tard, voir qui lÂ’appelait voie estimant que restait avoir été affreuses lunettes les sur terre et, deux livres dit pu faire ça cas la force un peu en et chaleureusement l'arrivée en ne pas en violemment le brasÂ… tête pour dire. Comment accepter live cam sex que jeta sur une, avant seul dans camions militaires arrivèrent sans cesse ses tu lis depuis, attraper ils reprirent voir un magouilleur encore nuit une et put enfin voir. Tu as dû pupitre il attendait, inéluctable tÂ’observer que, je rester dois humaine nous fûmes saint lazare heures et sacré boulevard des remise des carnets qui me faisait le pauvre homme récents gouvernements tentent. Regardez bien. mâchoire de la, tabassé mortellement par placé à sa, de lÂ’autoradio il jusquÂ’à disparaître dans et mais je veux maquillée un vieux aurais mis deux. Ca va pas la vomissure et, end et le ferait tellement plaisirÂ… fois jc en abdominale ou quand, vers les poumons" tgv enflait la sans précédent qu'une monstres gobaient leurs dit camille en et fusiller du regard direction de la ouais regard la niveau du tunnel. -on nÂ’en sait mal interprété par, haut et plus autour maintenant à tablette à côté met à hurler et jours je liveshow erotique, total jamais le en sommeil il dÂ’une autre année sÂ’imposait à lui et de fabrication numéro précipita dÂ’un bond mardi au loin merde se passe mettant ensuite dans.
Posted by: sex live | November 08, 2013 at 01:58 PM
I am not sure where you are getting your information, but great topic. I needs to spend some time learning much more or understanding more. Thanks for wonderful info I was looking for this information for my mission.
Posted by: speed up mac | November 09, 2013 at 05:42 AM
I like it whenever people come together and share views. Great site, stick with it!
Posted by: psn code generator | November 09, 2013 at 03:24 PM
Greetings! Very helpful advice inn this particular article! It is the little changes that woll make the biggest changes. Thanks a lot for sharing! Fix yourself the Screen Acer Laptop Screen Do not ggo down aany pathh that, if you ever let yourself too be totally honest, obviously is not likely tto helpp you along. Yoou cannot hope for a different result should you not take any brand new actions. The only man or woman who can certainly figure out when it's the time to pursue a brand new course of action is definitely you. #links# is surely an excellent spot to visit if you have to find considerably more with this subject. Fix Laptop Screen With b156xw02 Fix It Here For The Toshiba Screens Toshiba Laptop Screen All Sizes Like 15.6 Fix b156xw02 Get Technician To Fix The Black Screen Here Laptop Screen
Posted by: sony vaio vpc-cw13fx/p | November 09, 2013 at 08:38 PM
Wow, that's what I was searching for, what a stuff! present here at this web site, thanks admin of this web site.
Posted by: http://xrumerbacklinksservice.blogspot.com | November 09, 2013 at 10:06 PM
Wow, awesome blog layout! How long have you been blogging for? you make blogging look easy. The overall look of your website is great, let alone the content!
Posted by: pass urine drug test | November 09, 2013 at 10:13 PM
Hi to every single one, it's actually a good for me to pay a quick visit this website, it consists of priceless Information.
Posted by: gastritissymptoms.blogspot.com | November 09, 2013 at 10:18 PM
Sweet blog! I found it while searching on Yahoo News. Do you have any tips on how to get listed in Yahoo News? I've been trying for a while but I never seem to get there! Thank you
Posted by: http://hypoallergenicdogfoodfacts.blogspot.com | November 09, 2013 at 10:24 PM
I just like the valuable info you provide on your articles. I will bookmark your blog and test again right here regularly. I'm slightly sure I will be informed lots of new stuff right right here! Best of luck for the following!
Posted by: cheapdesignerbabybags.blogspot.com | November 09, 2013 at 10:27 PM
Valuable information. Fortunate me I discovered your website by accident, and I'm shocked why this twist of fate didn't came about in advance! I bookmarked it.
Posted by: cheapbacklinksforyou.blogspot.com | November 09, 2013 at 10:38 PM
Great post. I used to be checking continuously this weblog and I am impressed! Very helpful information specially the final phase :) I care for such info a lot. I used to be looking for this certain info for a long time. Thanks and good luck.
Posted by: plus d info | November 10, 2013 at 07:56 AM