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« Second picture in the Nokia Destruction Saga - Greatest individual Management Mistake Ever Made - Nokia vs Competition in one picture | Main | Quick notes from the smartphones battlefield and announcements from CES »

January 07, 2013

Comments

Sander van der Wal

@Tester

I was very interested in staying with Symbian too, for the very same reasons.

But also quite weary, having seen Nokia doing really stupid things in those 12+ years, things that were killing of third party software developers. "Killing all innovators", we thought was Nokia's motto (and not "Calling all innovators", for those not familiar with Nokia's developer marketing).

Anyway, you haven't thought things through far enough. Imagine Nokia announcing Windows Phone phones, and not killing off Symbian and MeeGo. Also, Nokia would not put Qt on Windows Phone.

Now, it is immediately clear that MeeGo is not ready, for quite some time. If it was ready, there would have been no Windows Phone announcement.

And *you* run the risk that when Windows Phone does take off, Symbian and MeeGo investments will stop, leaving you with a considerable investment in Qt with very much less change of making it up. The same will happen when you develop for Windows Phone, it it doesn't take of, you are also left with nothing.

In such a situation, you wait to see which platform will take off, and keep developing for the platforms that did take off.

This is exactly what happened with Samsung's Bada, and developers supporting Bada are left with the mess. But as this is a standard situation in third party software development, only the people not understanding this have been burned.

The problem would not have existed if Windows Phone did get a Qt layer. But that would not have happened. It would have commoditized Windows Phone, a situation Microsoft would not allow.

Tester

@Sander van der Wal:

You again do not consider the one issue that really matters: What if Nokia HADN'T switched to Windows Phone?

I agree, after announcing the switch the entire Qt ecosystem instantly became a dead end. No sane person would have pumped any more money into it. This is just another side of the Elop Effect.

Now for the alternative: What if Nokia had stayed with Symbian/MeeGo/Qt?

Symbian was still a strong market presence and my boss didn't like to repeatedly turn down orders for Symbian software - which he did due to the shitty tools Nokia had before Qt.

Believe it or not, many of our clients would have loved seeing a real Symbian version of their apps, but all we could give them was some crappy J2ME version.

So, had Nokia followed through with their original plans instead of jumping ship, yes, they still would have been late, but the sheer market presence they had would have ensured that apps had been developed for their platform.

And here we get back again to the fatal mistake in the whole platform switch: WP was completely incompatible with everything Nokia had. Going Windows clearly was an either/or decision. It could never have worked to do both the Qt platforms in parallel to Windows Phone and everybody with a shred of knowledge about the industry knew that. There was absolutely no migration path and by switching to such an incompatible platform anything Nokia had became instantly obsolete. (This, of course also explains why all the other WP 'supporters' are more pretending than actually doing. They wouldn't gain anything if it became successful. They just prepare themselves for the unlikely case that it might happen.)

Mary Winderly

Well done Tomi. It's really frustrating to read an interesting conversation in comments and be constantly bombarded by these troll posts.
Why can't these boys stick to the subject at hand? That's the trouble with the youth of today...no manners.

Those troll posts got me so annoyed that I nearly tried to put together a chart that showed that this whole 'Nokia decline started in 2010' meme is utter hogwash. I am actually not that great with spreadsheets and graphs and such but I managed to find exactly what I wanted made by dear Rafe at All About Symbian.

http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/images/news/smartphone-share-q4-2011.png

This clearly shows that Nokia's death spiral started the moment that dreadful Elop creature released his Burning Ships memo.

Allways a good read. Keep up the good work.

Mary Winderly

Tomasz Makarewicz

Dear Sir,
I am writing to you on the behalf of the Polish Ubuntu community. We
would like to translate your article to Polish and public it on
http://ubuntu.pl website. Of course you will be posted as a author and
there will be link back to your original article. Would you mind anything against this action?
Best regards,
Tomasz Makarewicz

Andi

The Worst CEOs of 2012 on Business week..

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-12-13/the-worst-ceos-of-2012

..granted that 5 are American, but the Bankia one isn't.. so any reason why they would 'overlook' Elop?

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