Quick notes from the smartphones battlefield and announcements from CES

Am at an airport now, in a rush, but a few quick notes about some interesting developments in the smartphones space

I talked about Japan leading, and that all major innovations that we now have in our phones, originate from Japan. Once again that proves to be true, as Sony now is bringing to other markets their waterproof smartphones - not for the beach, but for shower and bath use. And talking about Sony? They now aim to become the 3rd biggest smartphone maker - behind Samsung and Apple. Currently number 3 globally is Huawei. Sony famously left the Symbian and Windows worlds and concentrates now only on Android.

Of Huawei? They are expanding product portfolio and spreading around the world. And if felt that the Samsung Galaxy Note screen was too small - Huawei has now broken past the 6 inch barrier in our pocket, the Android based Ascend Mate offers a 6.1 inch screen.

Then Lenovo? The company that crashed into the global top 10 for the first time in Q3 of 2012? The company that previously bought IBM's PC business? Lenovo is now pursuing a strong growth strategy in smartphones, launching a series of smartphones and spreading to several countries. Expect their growth path to continue (on Android, obviously).

What of Pantech? Never heard of them? They are South Korea's third phone maker. They have a series of Android phones they are now using to expand well beyond Asia, aiming for USA for example.

What of Salora? Don't be confused with the former Finnish TV and radio maker Salon Radio out of the town of Salo, no, there is a new smartphone maker out of India that coincidentially uses that name as brand, and they have Android phones including one which they claim has the biggest battery at 3200mAh.

Then back in the former giants, Nokia CEO laid a major bombshell yesterday acknowledging that Windows is not necessarily forever for Nokia, and an Android path is a possible future, but he claims Nokia is not currently pursuing that path. Bear in mind, Nokia and Microsoft seem to have fallen out and are no longer BFFs, with Microsoft launching its tablet, threatening to launch its own smarpthone, and at major Windows Phone 8 events, was featuring HTC, not Nokia smartphones. And at Nokia's corner, they have already been recruiting Android engineers...

And another Nokia surprise. Now the company is backpedaling on the previous statements that Symbian is coming to an end and is already in 'maintenance mode' ie no more updates to the operating system. Today Nokia revised that statement, promising more development of Symbian? Is this now Plan B (and Android Plan C) - which all suggest that the disaster that is Lumia and Windows Phone is worse than Elop ever expected...

Why is that? Well, Windows Phone is failing the consumers too. We just learned via Fortune, of a Bernstein survey of US and European smartphone owners, that reported that iPhones have 95% repurchase intent in 2012. Android comes in second at 75%. Blackberry owners still pass the mid-point where 56% are willing to purchase another Blackberry. But Windows Phone? Only 37% are willing to buy another smartphone using Microsoft's system. This is totally in line with the 2012 Yankee Group survey of Lumia owners that found that four out of ten Nokia Lumia owners rated the phone so bad, they gave it the worst rating in the survey. So yes, Windows Phone is not just a failure by carriers and retail not supporting it, and the Lumia series designed to fail Nokia consumer expectations, now we have survey data that those poor saps who were tricked into buying a Windows Phone based smartphone hate them so much, almost two thirds intend to buy any other smartphone! No wonder Nokia CEO is hectically exploring his remaining alternatives and even Burning-Platforms Symbian and Pissing-in-Pants-in-Winter-to-Stay-Warm Android sound good to Nokia now. I should note, that just prior to Elop's Burning Platforms, the Symbian-based Nokia smartphones were so highly rated by its users, it was the second highest loyalty rating of European consumers behind only the iPhone, in 2010. Yes, 'Burning Platforms' Symbian. Nokia smartphones that Elop killed, were rated second best loyalty behind only the impossible standard, the iPhone. And far far ahead of the Blackberry or Android or Windows. That, Mr Microsoft Muppet destroyed and selected this consumer-hated platform of Windows Phone instead. What a moron!

Samsung? Reported record profits driven by record smartphone sales, no surprise. Samsung's Galaxy S4 is expected during Q1 and Samsung has confirmed several Tizen-based smartphones will be launched during 2013. One of the first customers committing to Tizen is Japan's biggest network, NTT DoCoMo, who famously do not offer the iPhone. If we remember Tizen's predecessor, Nokia's MeeGo, being the only system that was regularly called better than that on the iPhone and the Nokia N9 being called a better phone than the iPhone - no other Nokia phone have ever before or since beaten the iPhone regularly (the N95 and the E90 Communicator did that occasionally) - so this bodes very well for NTT DoCoMo's first Samsung Tizen-based smartpohnes later this year. Keep your eyes on Tizen (with among others, Huawei among its handset manufacturer partners and Sprint and Telefonica among its carrier partners)

HTC reported ever shrinking profits with its struggling smartphone business. But at least its still making some profits. HTC CEO said the problem has been marketing and advertising in the past year.

And finally this is not in the news category, more of an iRumor, but the iCompany is now increasingly rumored to give us iFinally the iPhone iNano, that iTomi has been iBegging for iYears. It would be targeted at Emerging World markets (as I suggested) with an unsubsidised price around 200 USD rather than the $650 that the current model retails for; and rumors suggest it could be made from plastic rather than metal and glass in part to help lower the production costs (and to clearly differentiate it from the flagship model, and prevent the cheaper model from cannibalizing the top end sales). But yes, this is still only a rumor, but it would be high time, Apple should have had the iPhone Nano out two years ago, and it would still be competing with Samsung for the global crown in smartphones. Now Apple has lost that battle and the iPhone Nano would be more a defensive move against Huawei and the others in the pack, to try to keep Apple at least as number 2 in the smartphone races as we head into the Bloodbath Year Four, Smartphones Galore

Thats the quick update, I'll be blogging more as news comes in from the bloodied battlefield of smartphones. But if you needed the latest stats, here are the full Top 10 smarpthone manufacturers currently based on the latest reported data ie Q3, as we await Q4 numbers.

And anyone who needs more than the top line numbers on mobile phones, smartphones, operating systems etc, see my TomiAhonen Phone Book 2012 for all the stats, numbers and facts.

Comments

[AtTheBottomOfTheHilton]

That Elop comment about Android should be regarded as noise. Elop never said he was considering Android, only a generic answer which basically was "no comment". In real life as long Elop is CEO of Nokia, they will never adopt Android because that would be a hostile action against Microsoft.

Now, the goal for Microsoft is to secure the valuable assets in Nokia as Windows Phone has already failed. Well, at least they killed two potential competing OSes at least. Microsoft is really good at that, destroying competitors, as well as partners.

Meanwhile, there are speculations that Microsoft and Huawei will buy Nokia remains.
http://bgr.com/2013/01/02/nokia-prediction-sell-smartphone-business-279281/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBoyGeniusReport+%28BGR+|+Boy+Genius+Report%29

[ejvictor]

What I find facinating is that all the bits "thrown off the burning platform into the sea" by Elop are now washing ashore in great shape. The Intel processors that delayed Meego ready, witness the Lenovo K900. The migration path - QT 5.0 released Dec 19 2012 now embraced by RIM, Jolla, canonical, with ports for Android and iOS first quarter 2013. This year will be the year of the gesture OS - the SWIPE UX - Jolla carries the torch.

Imagine IF Elop had focused on execution....

[foo]

More images illustrating Nokia collapse:

1) What Nokia+Microsoft promissed:

http://oi45.tinypic.com/2q1evk1.jpg

2) What actually happened:

http://oi48.tinypic.com/dgu3n.jpg

3) Comparing what Nokia gained with what it lost:

http://oi50.tinypic.com/157bvro.jpg

4) Gains vs losses, side by side:

http://oi48.tinypic.com/34ifvvb.jpg

(Based on data by Tomi Ahonen. These images may be freely redistributed.)

[cart]

Tizen has nothing to do with MeeGo. Tizen is HTML5, MeeGo is Qt. Look at Jolla/Sailfish, Ubuntu Mobile and Blackberry10 for MeeGo-like Experiences. Tizen experience looks worse than the dead bada...

[Wayne Borean]

2013 is going to be a great year for consumers. A least in mobile.

Seriously. How many fields do you know of where more than ten companies are fighting for your purchase?

Automobiles? Barely. Remember, Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac, and GMC are all one company. Same with Chrysler, Fiat, Maserati, Alfa Romeo, Ferrari, and Dodge, or Toyota and Lexus. In North America you don't find ten different car companies competing. Anywhere.

Computers? There's still openings for White Box OEMs, even though Intel seems to be trying to kill them. But there's less than ten big companies in general competition.

But in Mobile there's fifteen competitors! Competition breeds capabilities. Darwin was right. Evolution works (though he didn't have mobile in mind!)

2013 should bring some fascinating new devices.

Wayne

[vladkr]

I agree that Elop's interview mentioning that "everything is possible" (ie Nokia/Android phones ?) is just noise to artificially raise shares' value (and maybe to calm investors down before Q4 results).

Nokia doesn't present anything special at the CES, so Elop had to find something to get remarked.

I remember, while I was still in France, Sagem and Alcatel used to be big players in mobile technology. Both lost popularity in the past years, but I'm surprised to see that Alcatel - present at the CES - is resisting quite well, releasing attractive mid-range products.

[Firecracker]

Sup Tomi did you know that Denmark now also has a smartphone maker who is beating the Lumia by 10000 times in innovative features.
check them out here: http://lumigon.com/products.html

[cycnus]

@vladkr

I believe Alcatel brand is bought by some chinese company.

[chithanh]

One could add that Windows Phone was not mentioned during any smartphone maker's press conference.

@cart "Tizen has nothing to do with MeeGo."
This is not correct. Tizen is a successor of MeeGo. And even though Tizen uses EFL and MeeGo uses Qt, some code was carried over from MeeGo to Tizen.
http://www.linuxfoundation.org/news-media/blogs/browse/2011/09/welcome-tizen-linux-foundation

[cycnus]

@chithanh

But Steve Balmer manage to crash into Qualcomm keynote and doing shameless things.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Wn_XI3dU-kU

somehow when I see balmer, i remember this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sforhbLiwL­A

[vladkr]

@cygnus: I believe it too, but I'm still amazed how Chinese can revive European companies... is there a hope there for Nokia ?

[URNumber6]

@ukd

There's a huge difference between reducing market share and collapsing sales. The market was expanding at an enormous rate, NOKIA's sales were still increasing but at a slower rate than the overall market.

That was the situation right up until Elop sabotaged NOKIA, it was only after his 'burning platforms' memo (press release?) and subsequent announcement that Symbian was EOL that NOKIA nose-dived.

[igguk1]

@ ejvictor
He was focused but on:

Nokia's execution.

[eduardo]

@AtTheBottomOfTheHilton

When a ceo says "no comment" it's because he thinks any answer he could give, true or false, would get the company in trouble.

If Nokia is not pursuing Android, then he could have just said it. So I assume that if he won't answer it is because Nokia is at least seriously looking at Android, but Elop doesn't want to admit it, partly so as to not anger Microsoft, partly because doing so would lead to another Osborne effect disaster.

[Janne Särkelä]

The news today out of the smartphone territory is that Android is the operating system of choice for new smarter kitchen etc appliances. Unless Microsoft comes up with such devices or better - operating systems - for such digital convergence the battle is pretty much over. The field will inevitably miniaturize, and monolithic systems will lag and crumble because of their inability to conform with the technological progress. The less energy - less space paradigm and the easy availability of general computer parts will pave way for ever even more smarter and diverse set of devices, to which systems like WP will not fit. Heck, the kids today already play with lego blocks which have Linux inside, so there's literally the new generation right there..

[RottenApple]

Baron 95 is again posting anti-Google FUD. Please ignore. None of these 'predictions' can be substantiated.

You are quite obviously a paid troll whose mission is to badmouth Google. Do you happen to be part of Microsoft's latest smearing campaign? Shame on you!

[Jamie]

Well if Elop admitted to persuing Android, then it was soon retracted. Anyway would that not amount to admitting that his strategy has failed ? That would amount to a new memo "Burning platform II". MS is not Nokia, so he knows better than bad mouth MS. He would not admitt that 3rd ecosystem is a dead horse. Nokia's mistake is keeping such CEO. Anybody makes mistakes but it is unforgivable to continue doing the same and expecting different results.

MS & Nokia's bed is no longer rosy. WP8 did not provide the Umf that Nokia needed and there is no strategy for next step after Limia 920. That is typical MS way of working. Release one product give it 3 - 4 years to settle in. In the meantime, Apple, Google have come with new innovations each quater.

Unless there are others calling the shots at Nokia, I do not believe the Andriod story even though it would be the best option for Nokia today. It is highly unlikely that MS will buy Nokia. They are more interested in the SW business and are happy to have seen off one of the competitors. Let the smaller players fight the HW wars with patents after all Google has bought Moto and so what ? MS have an eye on Nokia Patent cache and we can only speculate on the contents of their secret deal.

Nokia needs a new down, new mngt, new strategy and fresh ideas, not those same old methods that do not listen to consumers as displayed by current CEO. Nokia can do quite well even as an OEM but needs to provide products that customers want. Many would move to a Nokia Android platform but of course Elop will not give them that. If Nokia wants to be a successful OEM they need to take a lesson from the best of them all. Samsung is providing handsets in OS that most suitable to its users. They are at the sametime creating a market for Samsung products. But what are Nokia's consumers treated to ? Same old story of creating an ecosystem. An ecosystem is built by consumer demand not the old monopoly of state aparatus dictating what every one should buy. Those days are long gone. C'mon Nokia, investigate what your consumers want today and change course..

[Henry Sinn]

Been disappointed in all things Sony for years but have recently purchased the waterproof Acro S as I'm often on our near the ocean

Also jumped on board with Vaio Duo 11 (Windows 8) and have to say.....

Sony : I am really impressed!

[Henry Sinn]

The mind boggles... How is it that Elop is not behind bars?
Even a hint of Symbian being extended (Note: My current / last Symbian phone STILL does so many things better than Android) surely had to be grounds for total incompetence and failure

[Henry Sinn]

iAgree re iCompany missing the iBoat.

Some of you may find the "alternate" use of an Android phone rather interesting. See http://henrysinn.com/outpost360