Just a quick note. Samsung only rarely publishes its smartphone number, but does it from time to time, like in the annual report. So what I do, is use the average of those of the big 4 handset analyst houses who happen to give us a Samsung number for the quarter. And today we have IDC and Strategy Analytics giving their Sammy numbers, one was 63.0M the other was 63.9M (I forget which was which, doesn't really matter for an average.). So we get a calculated 'analyst house consensus view' preliminary number of 63.45 which I round up to 63.5M.
So, first, this is only preliminary. We may hear the formal Samsung number and if we do, I will use that of course. If not, I wait until each of the 4 has reported their Q4 final numbers (ie we are now waiting for Gartner and Canalys) and use the average of either all 4, or 3, or only these 2 houses depending on which all commit to a Samsung number for Q4 in smartphones. (BTW my gut feeling says 63.5M is too low, I would expect a number above 70M when the final truth is told haha)
But I know many are eager to get the numbers, so in a preliminary sense, if Samsung is at or near 63.5 million for Q4, it means - up from 13% from Q3. Market share at 28% down from 32% in Q3.
For the full year, Samsung prelim total in smartphones is 215 million, up 120% (yes more than doubled) from 2011. Samsung's full year market share at 30% up from 20% in 2011. And compared to its nearest rival, Apple iPhone, Samsung's smartphone unit is now exactly 50% bigger than its nearest rival. I think its safe to say, that Samsung has run away with the smartphone market, even Apple is now helpless to resist the new king in town.
But yes, I'll do a formal proper Samsung analysis if and when. And then in early February, of course, will have the Q4 total market numbers for hte top 10 biggest smartphone makers, and the OS battle, and the installed base globally; plus the same data points for full year 2012. Coming soon to this blog.
PS for those who need the handset numbers, remember my TomiAhonen Phone Book 2012.
So, first, this is only preliminary. We may hear the formal Samsung number and if we do, I will use that of course. If not, I wait until each of the 4 has reported their Q4 final numbers (ie we are now waiting for Gartner and Canalys) and use the average of either all 4, or 3, or only these 2 houses depending on which all commit to a Samsung number for Q4 in smartphones. (BTW my gut feeling says 63.5M is too low, I would expect a number above 70M when the final truth is told haha)
But I know many are eager to get the numbers, so in a preliminary sense, if Samsung is at or near 63.5 million for Q4, it means - up from 13% from Q3. Market share at 28% down from 32% in Q3.
For the full year, Samsung prelim total in smartphones is 215 million, up 120% (yes more than doubled) from 2011. Samsung's full year market share at 30% up from 20% in 2011. And compared to its nearest rival, Apple iPhone, Samsung's smartphone unit is now exactly 50% bigger than its nearest rival. I think its safe to say, that Samsung has run away with the smartphone market, even Apple is now helpless to resist the new king in town.
But yes, I'll do a formal proper Samsung analysis if and when. And then in early February, of course, will have the Q4 total market numbers for hte top 10 biggest smartphone makers, and the OS battle, and the installed base globally; plus the same data points for full year 2012. Coming soon to this blog.
PS for those who need the handset numbers, remember my TomiAhonen Phone Book 2012.
@Winter
If we compare the 1.3M activations number from September and multiply with days in that quarter, this comes very close to the 122M sales according to Wikipedia. So it appears that the error that is made by activations being lower in the beginning of the quarter is somewhat compensated by counting unsold shipped devices.
"The number probably did decline. Don't forget, there hasn't been any new high end Android phone in the last 2 quarters."
The high end does not affect the bulk of Android sales. Don't forget, we are looking at an ASP (average sales price) that is well below $200 now. [NB: Which breaks WP8's neck as it is a no-show there, and will also make BB10 fail if they don't create a strong presence in the $100-200 price range]
In summary, while I will not dismiss the idea that Android has peaked, none of the numbers or arguments have substantiated this claim so far.
Posted by: chithanh | January 28, 2013 at 09:32 PM