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January 11, 2013



@ExNokian: There was absolutely no indication that Symbian sales were going to collapse in this way. Even if there were some decrease in 2010 Q1 expected from Nokia (why? your word?g) it is obvious that the ongoing collapse was caused by declaring the platform obsolete.

RC1: Irrelevant
RC2: So if there would be 2 Windows Phone sold and 1 Symbian smartphone, you would call it a transition... The transition was achieved by destroying the Symbian market share not by building up a meaningful level of Lumia market share.
RC3: Haha.
RC4: Hahahaha.

@John Phamlore: I don't get your point. Meego and Android are both based on the Linux kernel. Why should there be no suitable hardware platform for Meego?

Tomasz R

2013 might be difficult for Nokia.

1) Low-end - currently the most successful - is going to face additional onslaught from newcomers: Tizen, Firefox OS, while at the same time having it's best selling Asha & Symbian models too obsolete to compete.

2) On High end it's Windows Phone that will prevent Nokia from competing. Currently Windows Phone prevents screen resolutions higher than 1280x768, prevents number of CPU cores higher than 2 and these have to be Quallcom cores rather than more modern A15 in Big/Little configurations with A7.

At the same time Android high-end is marching into Full-HD resolutions with quad-cores. No chance to compete with such specs with anything running Windows Phone 8.

But there's some hope for Nokia - their master Microsofot is planning "Windows Blue" for half of the year. It is supposed to replace both WP8 and Windows 8, and obsolete them (they do it again?). Maybe it's going to have such features.

3) On the side there's another attack - Blackberry makes a return in 2013. It may not affect WP8 directly, just that the doors to enterprise contracts might become closed to WP8.

4) Attack from behind - Microsoft may release Surface Phone. Anyone wanting a flaghship phone with WP8 is going to consider it first.


@Tomasz R:

>> But there's some hope for Nokia - their master Microsofot is planning "Windows Blue" for half of the year. It is supposed to replace both WP8 and Windows 8, and obsolete them (they do it again?). Maybe it's going to have such features.

History repeats itself, obviously. So by next fall we will have a new Windows Phone version, that again provides no proper migration path, again is limited to the hardware current half a year before its release and when it's due the competition again has run away with the next step forward.

So what is this? Osborning WP8 just a month after its release? Pathetic!

Arnt Karlsen

..another nail for Nokia's coffin:



Can you please advise a source for this Bernstein Survey/Study you are referring to? You once mentioned it was reported by Forbes, but I can neither find any reference to this study on Bernstein's, nor on Forbes site? (Most likely I am doing something wrong, but ...)

In general, having some links or sources would be helpful in most articles.

Would appreciate, if you could point to the mentioned report, even if it is a paid study. Thanks!


Based on all your research it is crystal clear an incredible harm has been done to Nokia and its shareholders. I read here before the WP7.5 phones are being sold for dump prices thus skewing the numbers. Is there a way you can measure how good the WP8 phones are doing?

@ Lasko "To be fair one should mention that most Symbian releases were somewhat 'feature complete'. I still have a N95 in use and allthough I never received a major update I do not feel lacking anything." I am completely at awe how mobile vendors stop to provide support for their products. I'm not talking about major updates here; I am talking about 2 factors: 1) security updates. Revoked CA certs to name one example, bugs in Gecko/WebKit to name another. 2) reliability updates. If hardware was shipped half broken and a software update can fix this, vendors should release this. Maemo suffered from this but due to the open nature of the platform there was at least 3rd party updates (they recently even updated CA cert due to Turktrust being hacked). It'd be better if vendors themselves dealt with this though.



Say the same thing with a straight face using numbers of units sold. Say the same thing looking at how much Nokia stock was worth before this failed WP experiment.

Nokia should just come out after Q1 2013 and say that the experiment failed. Move along to something better.

It's the so called Nokia fans who applauded this foolhardy wp venture that are as responsible as elop and gang for the current situation Nokia is in.

To even suggest that Asha is anywhere near S60, even when compared to 5800, is utter rubbish. S60 wasn't very good, but it wasn't bad either compared to the competition at the time. Just like Asha isn't very good compared to the current competition. But pricing plays a very important role as well. For the price Asha phones are sold for, they're good. That's one of the major reasons Lumia line (WP7) phones are selling well now.. Compared to the competition, WP is rubbish. But factor in cost, and it still sells. The only loser in all of this is Nokia.



>> For the price Asha phones are sold for, they're good.For the price Asha phones are sold for, they're good.

I don't think so. Last time I saw one advertised it was for €99.99.

In the same ad, for the same price there was also a low end Android phone.
It had a larger screen, higher screen resolution but a slightly slower CPU.

Of course it also has a significantly better selection of apps.

Sorry, but for me the Ashas are a cheat, nothing more.

Regardless, the report clearly shows that Nokia's entire business is now located at the bottom end of the market. This is clearly not a good sign.


@ baron95

Nokia Investor hate Elop, Microsoft and all the Window Crappy Phones

Pre 11.2.2011 Nokia was around 8.5 Euro, now is bouncing with tricky Elop announcement at 3.5 euro

Nokia pre Elop had a decent strategy, decent product, and was the king of a market that experience +50% a year ... Nokia Investors could now as rich as the Apple Investor ... but the trick Americans fund with 15% got control of Nokia, they placed Elop, and use him for destroy Nokia, destroy Nokia shareholder value, for the good of Microsoft and othe4 Americans funds interest

Now ... please you no sense propaganda do on a Microsoft web space




Tomi, impressive blog with accurate analyisis and predictions. I'm reading it for more than a year now and at first i had great doubts about your forecasts, but now i can see that all of your predictions come very accurately true. Congratulations, you're doing an amazing job and thank you for providing it for free.

I have one suggestion about the formatting of the archived entries, i would like to see just titles with links to posts, but all of them. In the current form it is impossible to find an article from the past year. Would that be possible? Maybe it requires an update to the site blog software, but it would be extremely useful. I find myself wanting to direct others to some specific article of yours, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to find it. So the simple solution for this is a page that would list all your topics along with a date and a link. Hopefully you'll read this and be able to improve the navigation of the archived articles.




NOK Feb. 2011 - 11,06/share
NOK Jan. 2013 - 3,75/share

Yes, investors truly love Windows (Phone).

NOK Feb. 2011 - 28,8% marketshare
NOK Jan. 2013 - 2,8% marketshare

Yes, consumers truly like Lumia.

Windows Feb. 2008 - 12% marketshare
Windows Jan. 2013 - 1,5% marketshare

Yes, consumers truly like Windows (Phone).

Percentages are worth nothing without a reference.

In 2012 220,000 people have been killed by murderes, +20,000 in constrast to 2012, or +10%.
In 2012 3 people have been killed by tarantulas, +1 in contrast to 2012, or +33%.

Tarantulas are obviously becoming more dangerous than murderes.


@Baron95 You could also say that Nokia Stocks went up 180% when Nokia said that they might want to look at other OS then Windows Phone.
They said that it would not be impossible to make an Android phone in the future.



"Windows Phone 8 will be successful because of Windows 8 and Windows RT, the Windows ecosystem".

I had a really hard laugh on this. Windows 8 marketshare ~1,5%, forced by OEM sales only, declining ~20%, Windows RT 0,005%, also declining.

But you are right - Windows Phone aligns perfect with this 'synergy'. Marketshare 2%, also declining.


I am not a tech expert but i genuinely regretted replacing my Symbian with lumia 710.I couldn't usb tether,i couldn't use a proper pc suite and many other things apart from creating sms drafts.I was simply fooled into thinking it would be a step forward !(not backward!!!)
Really how were they imagining a happy user transition ?


Here is a short article from Fortune/CNN which gives the Bernstein Research numbers from their survey of smart phone users.

75% of Android users plan to repurchase another Android device, 58% of BlackBerry users plan on doing similarly, while just 37% of Windows phone owners intend on sticking with the platform.


@N9: The Android version of the Linux kernel has extensive customizations to work with the Android system, which don't come from Linux. Especially WakeLocks, for a program to signal to the kernel that it shouldn't go to sleep, but there are others. Android Linux is very different from the GNU/Linux that Nokia was using.

To get a phone SoC to work with both Android Linux and GNU/Linux, they required separate drivers to be written. And Qualcomm, especially, is uninterested in helping GNU/Linux.

It's possible to get a GNU/Linux system running on an Android Linux kernel, but it takes a lot of work. Only the people at Canonical seem to be doing that work, when they're making Ubuntu for cell phones.

Likewise, there are people working to merge the Android Linux kernel into the normal Linux kernel, and eliminate the differences. Linus Torvalds estimates that it will take about 5 years. It's not easy.


R: bullshit, android linux kernel changes have already been merged to the standard linux in prevous year.

newbie reader

// 75% of Android users plan to repurchase another Android device,
// 58% of BlackBerry users plan on doing similarly, while just
// 37% of Windows phone owners intend on sticking with the platform.

And 95% for iPhone. These numbers seems to be very reasonable.

75% for Android, the major platform, is about the same as overall android marketshare, exactly what it should be.

For a smaller platform, a high retention rate ***is essential to survive***

This not the case for WP, they cannot hold even those souls that they managed to trap.

the higher NOK goes, the better short it is.


@daz: R: bullshit, android linux kernel changes have already been merged to the standard linux in prevous year.

Actually standard linux only merged enough code to *boot* *the* *device*.

Fast 3D? Accelerated video playback? Decent battery life? Fuhgeddaboudit!

It's possible to run GNU/Linux system on top of the Android kernel, but it's not trivial. And the biggest hurdle is not technical but political: if Android stops working with Qualcomm's stuff then, obviously, it's Qualcomm's problem and Qualcomm will fix it. But if Meego or Ubuntu crashes this then Qualcomm can say that it never intended to support such use - and that's it.


@R :
Android kernel is a fork from mainline kernel and as such very similar. And, yes, it has features which are only gradually moved back into mainline, but this does not imply that separate drivers need to be written. In the worst case, this means that porting drivers to mainline takes a small amount of work. It is hard to see how this could have been a problem.


Yes, but we are not talking about how hard it is for some random hacker to use Android with a mainline kernel, but how hard it would have been for Nokia to port Meego to a new platform which is already supported by Android

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