My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« The Engagement Marketing Primer for 2013 - E Equals M 2 C - Engagement Equals Mobile To Community - Or how to get 30% response rates with your next campaigns | Main | Picture 4 in Nokia Saga: How Badly the Promised Migration from Symbian to Windows Phone is Failing »

January 10, 2013

Comments

Tester

@rew:

Do we need to play this game again?

It's called 'forecasting', not 'clairvoyance'.

Not always, if you try to extrapolate future data from what you have available, the result will be correct.

If, for example, there was a minor aberration in Kantar's Symbian numbers, of course they will affect the precision of the forecast. That's simple math - especially if it comes to low marketshare products like Nokia currently has to offer.

Winter

@Tester
"That's a game only a monopolist in complete control of its business can do. MS won't ever be able to get there in mobile with the current competitors."

But Nokia does not have that option. They have welded themselves to the MS train.

Tester

@Nokiawatcher:

That's the typical kind of Microsoft statistics-tweaking we are known for.

Of course relative growth is higher if you start with almost nothing and will make any statistic look great. What should not be ignored is absolute percentage:

WP grew from 0.62% to 3.24% in that time period. Ouch!

(Android grew by more than 7 percentage points (3 times as much as WP) in the same time period, btw, but since it started well over 20 the relative growth is only 1/10th of what Windows Phone gets here.)

Sorry, but anyone using these kinds of statistics loses all credibility in my book. It's an act of desperation to make oneself look good.

osakkeenomistaja

@Lasko

Johtamisessa on parantamisen varaa, siinä olen ehdottomasti samaa mieltä. Tuote, siis WP on mielestäni kuitenkin hyvä. Käyttöjärjestelmä on sulava ja ulkoasu miellyttävä. Ulkoasu sopivasti erilainen kuin muilla.

Lehdistöstä sen verran että Nokiassa olisi myös hyviä asioita kirjoitettavaksi. Kuitenkaan suomalainen lehdistö ei niitä halua syystä tai toisesta tuoda esille.

Niin, ja en sulje silmiäni ikäviltä asioilta. Olen tiedostanut ne jo aikoja sitten. Kuitenkin kun olen tänne asti mukana roikkunut niin tyhmää olisi nyt hypätä junasta pois.

Nokiawatcher

Thanks. But do you think it will continue beyond 3% of phone owners, or will the growth in UK stall soon or even go down again when Blackberry 10 and the cheap iPhone come on the scene?

Tester

@Nokiawatcher:

The overall impression seems to be that it'd remain at low numbers. Even the most positive outlook right now, IDC's 4 year projection, only says 11-12% for 2016. (Last year they predicted 19% for 2015 so even they had to revise down quite heavily.)

It comes to the simple factor whether people actually WANT to buy Windows phones. Currently it doesn't look like that's the case. I personally think that Windows Phone 8 already had its window of opportunity. Soon the Android makers will release their next generation with full HD displays and other boundary-pushing features. I'm sorry, but the Lumias won't have any chance against that.

So, judging from the platform's capabilities, overall market reception, user satisfaction and developments among competing manufacturers my estimate is that 5-6% is the limit - but only with discount pricing and targetting low end customers.

Lasko

@osakkeenomistaja

It is absolutely fine (and absolutely valid) that you think that the Lumia is a good product; but the problem is not what you think, the problem is what others think. And we know that 98% of the market thinks that it is not a good (enough) product, and that of this remaining 2% 2 out of 3 people will not buy another of this product; we know that carriers and retailers do not support the product (enough) as well. This is the problem. And this problem is NOT caused by the press.

Windows Phone is a niche prodcut, but Nokia is not a niche company - that's the 'horrible' in the 'horrible' product.

Yes, the media is to blame for 'There is no news like bad news', but this is not a problem specific to Nokia, and this is NOT the problem OF Nokia. There problem is the exclusive Windows Phone strategy.

And of course Nokia should switch from this strategy immediately - there is no success with it, because there is no success for Windows Phone - at least not at a rate Nokia would need.

"When you discover you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount."

vladkr

Dear osakkeenomistaja,

Sorry that I can't write in Finnish, I forgot almost everything of it.

I understand you position, but you have to face that Nokia has nothing to do with Finland any more.

If few months ago, I could say that Nokia is only a postal box, it isn't any more as they even sold their HQ.

To sum up :
- Phones are designed in Sunnyvale, California (6 metres away of Apple offices)
- Phones are manufactured mainly in China, few in Brazil and India.
- Most R/D workers were fired
- Software is made by MS
- Hardware is made by Qualcomm

I would also add all Nokia workers, who were fired under Elop presidency, were in the most abominable way :
- Romanian workers were offered the cellphones they used to manufacture, and which were unsellable as they were Osborned.

- Most Finnish workers were "sold" or "offered" to third parties with work experience reset to zero, making them ineligible for compensations when their new employer fired them almost immediately.

You want to support Finland ? Buy Nokian Renkaat/Jalkineet, buy Fazer, buy Fiskars, buy Mercedes A-class, buy Valio, etc.

But buying Nokia won't support Finland any more.

osakkeenomistaja

Dear Lasko and vladkr,

Now I am too tired to this kind on conversation, is Nokia going to be profitable or not.

In my opinion Nokia Lumias are fully competitive with best Android and iPhone devices. Only problem is how to get customers test those devices. I think that Nokia has now great portfolio of smartphones and basic phones.

And, vladkr, yes I have Nokian winter tyres in my car, I drink Valio's milk, I eat Fazer's chocolate. Mercedes A-class is too small for us and also too expensive. I try to buy as much Finnish foodstuff as possible.

I wish all the best everyone! I am over and out now.

newbie reader

@vladkr
// buying Nokia won't support Finland any more.

Nokia still pays taxes in Finland, no?

vladkr

@Newbie reader:

They were divided by 5 between 2008 and 2011... it should be even less for 2012

newbie reader

> They were divided by 5 between 2008 and 2011

well, smartphone sales are also down, about the same ratio

Lasko

@osakkeenomistaja

No, 'tricking' people into buying Lumias does NOT solve the problem.

As said, there ARE already people buying Lumia devices, but the surveys from Yankee and Bernstein have shown that 2 out of 3 people will either return their device immediately or will not buy another Windows Phone product.

Windows Phone is NOT a desirable product, it is NOT 'if they try it they will like it', it is NOT a marketing problem, it is a product problem.

m

@Tester: "The question is, what is genuine profit and what is just clearance of obsolete stock?"

What is interesting is that the earnings releases only ever use the word "ship" when referring to phone counts, but in the pre-earnings press release they only used the word "sold". So I think that the 4.4M Lumias includes much overstock that was already counted as shipped in Q3.

@Tomi, you said that some carriers report more old Lumia sales than new. So it seems likely that the actual number of Lumias shipped in Q4 was less than 4M, maybe as low as 3.5?

Tester, I agree that a lot of the "profit" is a recovery of some of the cost of the stockpile of WP7 Lumias shipped in Q3.

I agree with those predicting a shock with the actual earnings release. I would bet that Nokia will report a net loss.

But why the rosy pre-earnings press release?
- A pump-and-dump? A short squeeze? Could Microsoft interests be buying up stock at depressed prices and then squeezing the shorts at pumped up prices?
- Elop needs to get it stuck in shareholders' minds that WP8 is doing well enough to keep giving it another chance, even though it's still a loss and will continue to be a loss? Somehow, that truth seems to continually be lost in the repeated message, "Lumias are selling well."

I will bet on it, Nokia will report a net loss in Q4.

Lasko

@Dan

According to some articles on the internet Windows Phone is the best operating system, with the best customer satisfaction, and the best hardware and the most sold operating system.

According to reality the market share is less than 2%.

Can you spot the difference?

Roger

I am interested to know if you Tomi believe Nokia can turn the corner if it starts selling Android phones by say late this year. It should not be hard to slap on Android on the same WP hardware as it uses QC chipset ? Nokia will then join a successful ecosystem that enables Nokia a free hand to innovate.

m

@osakkeenomistaja, I'm sorry to say this but by buying a Lumia, you're not supporting Finland, you're supporting Microsoft. The Lumia line is not profitable at Nokia, it is a loss. That means that right now, the more Lumias they make, the more money that Nokia earned over the past decade is burned.

Admittedly, the goal with Elop's Nokia is to build up WP until it is profitable for Nokia, and if that happens then supporting Lumia now is an investment in Finland's future. HOWEVER, if it fails, and Nokia finally gives up on WP, then all of that investment is gone to waste, dumped into advertising or carted off by Microsoft. If it fails, then the more it is supported now, the more is wasted. Ifwhen that happens, Finnish people will realize that they've been taken advantage of and abandoned by foreign interests.

Stephen Elop

I believe that you overestimate the Elop Effect in Q1 2011. It is just the general post-christmas fall. Elop Effect took its full strength in Q2 2011.

Henrik

@Roger The Lumia 920 Hardware is more up to date with Android hardware. So they have a change with that. If they puts Android on that.
But it will not be in the high end market. The Lumia is only a dual core CPU and high end Android is Quad core at the moment. and moving to 8 or 4+4 cores (long story but 8 core and 4+4 core is not the same)

But if Nokia updates the hardware like the rest of the industry and do a little catch up. Then they have a change.
Nokia have some grate cameras and some beautiful screens.

But looking at the Lumia 900 that they had before the 920. The the hardware is to old for anything but low end Android phones.
So it all depents on what hardware they would use to ship with Android. AND the price. They can't sell on there name as Apple is doing. So they have to match the prices of the other Android phones out there.

What would be nice to see would be Nokia's skins and features that they would/could add to there flavour of Android.
But I fear that most of there brain power for that is either fired of has left on there own. :-(

peter sellers

@Tomi

Hey Tomi, thanks for keeping up your writing. I feel like I'm in an alternate universe where the media is almost exclusively inept and you are literally the only person writing the actual story. A couple points...
-Nokia sold 4.4 million Lumia phone... that's awful. In Q4 they added (and sold) the Lumia 510, Lumia 920, Lumia 822 and the Lumia 810. It's not as though they stopped selling the old ones. As Nokia adds new products to its 'Lumia' line its only natural for it to expand, sadly for Nokia, 4.4 million isn't much of an expansion.
-It is good I suppose that they will make a profit this quarter but as far as I can tell it seems to be mostly due to their Asha line and NSN. I would absolutely LOVE for someone from the media who keeps writing about Lumia's "success" and the "turnaround" finally paying dividends, to explain to me how selling 4.4million smartphones of an ENTIRE product line is somehow magically adding to Nokia's profitability.
-Morgan Stanley predicted Nokia selling 32 Million Lumia phones in 2012. How did they do? 13.3 Million Lumia phones sold in 2012. Morgan Stanley was off by 18.7 Million!!!!! So this is good news?

Additional thoughts...
-Obviously switching to Windows Phone OS is the stupiest move in history, and is almost 100% responsible for the death of Nokia. However I believe abandoning selling phones straight from Nokia has also contributed greatly to the downfall of Nokia. Nokia used to be the ONLY place to buy a well made cellphone at a very competitive price that was completely unlocked. This made them non-existant in North America where the carriers run the market, but internationaly they were loved for this practice. Elop sold Nokia's soul to the carriers for a piece of the North American market and Nokia lost big!
-I sympathis with you Tomi, I used to love Nokia. What Elop has done to the company is criminal, we just talk about it on the internet but I can only imagine how the employees of Nokia feel, who find themselves jobless because their new CEO is trying to save Windows Phone.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati