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« Apple December Quarter: Surprisingly Tame Results. Market share for year is flat or maybe slightly down | Main | Prelim Samsung Q4 number is 63.5M via the major analyst houses »

January 24, 2013

Comments

winter

@Jouku
As far as I know does MS demand that all royality agreements remain secret. But we can assume that the period will run for at least 5 years.

Also, the assumption would be to get more than 10% of the market. That would be aroud 50-70 million handsets a year. So my guess would be between $5-10 per handset. For $15 per handset, the minimum target number would be under 20M handsets.

All guesswork. But every reasonable guess shows the utter failure of WP.

winter

@Jouko
Note that my guesses are uneducated and based on 30 years of "experience" that MS never ever tell the truth about their financials (they have been in court for falsifying the books).

The anouncements of Nokia make me suspect that they do not reach the minimum shipments.

Jouko Ahvenainen

@Winter thanks.

Seketh

@Tomi Ahonen:

Do you use a Symbian phone?

newbie reader

// Nokia needs to buy Jolla

Very unfair view for Jolla.

First, Nokia needs to fire Elop.
Then only it is safe to see Jolla in Nokia hands.

Elop Nokia killed Jolla's father, Symbian/MeeGo line.

Is it reasonable to wish to see an infant in hands of his father's killer?

N9

The following source claims that Nokia sold 2 million WP8 phones last quarter. It also contains some information about the licensing agreement with Microsoft.

http://www.computing.co.uk/ctg/news/2238927/nokias-windows-phone-licence-costs-set-to-soar-as-quarterly-sales-disappoint/page/1?WT.rss_a=nokia%27s+windows+phone+licence+costs+set+to+soar+as+quarterly+sales+disappoint&WT.rss_f=

Spawn


@N9

$40 WP license-fees per Lumia? WTF?

http://www.geek.com/articles/mobile/windows-phone-licensing-cost-revealed-by-zte-23-30-20120119/

According to this source ZTE pays $23-$30 and large partners like Samsung and HTC may even get off with $3.

Nokia pays more then 10 times as much for a WP license then Samsung and HTC??? and they bound themself to do so for at least 5 years??? And will always pay at least $250 million per quarter even when they not offer any Lumia or any phones at all any longer???

Elop!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lasko

"Now on Monday (January 17, 2013) I take the phone [Lumia 920] to the Burlington Mall AT&T store as NOKIA suggested that the stores are replacing the phone with a new one (likely to have the same issue). When discussing it with AT&T I was told to take the phone and sell it on eBay and then use the funds for an early termination. Really? That is the solution they wish to tell customers for a KNOWN ISSUE?"

Unbelievable.

And are they serious and the license payments? If yes, Elop _has_ to go to jail immediately, because signing such a contract _must be_ a criminal act, even in Finland.

Winter

@Spawn
Nokia and MS would have set the minimum royalty payments at a level that they would expect to beat, and beat easily.

If Nokia pays $1B per year minimum license cost ($250M/quarter), then $23/phone translates to a minimum production of 43 million phones per year. $30 translates to 33 million handsets per year.

33-43 million handsets per year is a market share of 18-22% (for 750M total market size).

I must say that I doubt that Nokia would have expected to get 20% market share in a market of 750M. Especially as MS & Nokia would have expected that more producers would have entered the market by now.

I still think Nokia is more in the direction of $5 than $25 per handset. But who knows. They have been acting rather stupid in this deal from the start.

Maybe they really were so deluded that they believed they could achieve 1-1 conversion rate from Symbian?

Spawn

@Winter

That $23-$30 are for ZTE. The article also claims its $3 for HTC/Samsung.

No, I not believe that claim but I also not believe that Nokia, back then when they had lot to offer to Microsoft and when Microsoft already lost, would have to pay a similar fee like ZTE. Nokia went all in, was number 1. Microsoft was requiring them way more then the other way around.

Here is another source:
http://bgr.com/2012/01/19/microsoft-charges-partners-20-30-per-windows-phone-license-according-to-zte/

That source says its $10-$15 for Samsung and HTC. That I believe more.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/14/technology/windows_phone_7_cost/index.htm

Says $5-$10. Again I think $5 is to less but I also think its not $20.

1) 250m / $10 = 25 million devices per quarter MINIMUM
2) 250m / $15 = 17 million devices per quarter MINIMUM

Note that in both cases its the minimum fee meaning they need to pay more when more sold but in total it may be lesser per device.

Yet what that means is that the PROMISSED to sell at least 20 million Lumia each quarter else they pay morr. What kind of deal is that? What did they got?

Really, as more is uncovered as more I see how that benefits Microsoft but what is/was in for Nokia? They had all to give and took all riscs or what? I don't get it. Something is very very wrong here.

CN

@Spawn

Well, if you just read how much fact based knowledge is shared in here in just few hours, you are probably right saying something is very very wrong here.

Or then, just choose one that you like the best: 3USD, 10, 15, 23-30 or 40 USD. All available. And maybe more, I didn't read it carefully.

We may or we may not here more details on this soon, but some day we can make far better estimates. Until then, the discussion will continue and continue.

Also, if you look at the volume estimates published by computing.co.uk, now we have those WP8 volumes for 4Q. Well, we have them if we believe it's right.

Winter

@CN
At $3/phone the minimum number of phones they expected to sell would have been in the order of 80 million phones per quarter. That would translate to more than 40% market share.

If they believed that, Nokia must have had Great Expectations indeed.

CN

@Winter

First, we don't know. Second, setting any expectations on shipment volumes, based on license fees, is probably something evaluated when business case has been prepared. But, if such outcome is any kind of an official target to call the case a success or a failure, is another question.

My point - we in this blog simply don't know the smallest amount of details to justify the case positively or negatively closed at this stage. At least I don't. Time will tell, I rather wait than spend time on trying to understand what is going on.

Winter

@CN
"My point - we in this blog simply don't know the smallest amount of details to justify the case positively or negatively closed at this stage."

We know that the minimum royalty payments are in the neighborhood of $250M/quarter. With only 6.5M WP phones sold in Q4, this comes down to close to $40/phone. We know both MS and Nokia expected to sell more phones.

Now, with MS and Nokia refusing to tell us how bad their performance is, we can try to estimate the number of phones they expected to sell. With all reasonable license costs being between $5-15, we can now easily estimate that Nokia expected to sell at least between 17-50M handsets per quarter.

What is wrong with these estimates? If they expected to sell much less, then the real cost per handset is much higher. Which again implies Nokia management screwed up even more than we already believe. If they expected to sell more, then they must have been even more deluded that we believed.

Spawn

> If they expected to sell more, then they must have been even more deluded that we believed.

Exactly. And that is straith related to the first diagram in Tomi's article. That is the transition-rate, the expectatiob and reality.

What those numbers show is that Nokia management except indeed to reach a high transition-rate. The timing also tells us this should have happened by now already.

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