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« Apple December Quarter: Surprisingly Tame Results. Market share for year is flat or maybe slightly down | Main | Prelim Samsung Q4 number is 63.5M via the major analyst houses »

January 24, 2013

Comments

CN

Yep, Winter, only typo. If I didn't make it clear, that's what I tried to say and I know from the past that if you tell Tomi that there has been a mistake, he does fix it. Well, not always, but in this case he will.

On the other hand, if you don't know what Tomi has been saying and when, you might think that he indeed forecasted something spot on 20 months ago. And as I said, that would be really something in this dynamic business.

My hidden agenda here is of course that now you can see that there has been loads of figures he's given. Now he just needs to pick the one that has been closest. ;-)

This message to be deleted? Yes, I guess so.

Alex Kerr

@ej victor
> "Jolla's model is like Android - OS open for anyone to license"

That is either very similar to, or exactly like, the previous Symbian model.

Nokia owned Symbian -> multiple Symbian licensees (NTT DoCoMo, Sony etc)
Symbian Foundation -> anyone could license Symbian

So I would suggest Nokia need to buy Jolla, regardless of anything else. They can then license or not license as they see fit.

Nokia buying Jolla (and changing CEO, other management, board) etc. is the best way forward for Nokia now, and it gives all the benefits I've listed.

Jolla's ex-Meego staff left Nokia because of the CEO and his policies of killing MeeGo (etc). So with a change of policy and leadership, they would love to come back, I think.

Winter

@CN
I posted Tomi's initial analysis from 15 February 2011. Tomi then was predicting near death experiences for Nokia.

He has been very consistently predicted the collapse of Nokia. But I have to admit, he was consistently too optimistic. Reality proved to be worse every single time.

Indeed, Tomi has many predictions to select from. His predictions were indeed the worst of the crop, and still too optimistic.

Cristian Radu

Why not use Ubuntu instead of Jolla if we are at it? It's free and it should please those large numbers of Linux fans.

Everyone here seems to be entrenched in this "new OS proposal" discussion for Nokia. Nokia doesn't need a new OS, we already have tenths of OSes on the market. It needs services for that OS and it needs to get their phones on the market faster. Over here (eastern Europe), the new Lumias haven't even officially launched.

Let's see if this comment is deleted as well, like the last one (which was pretty pertinent by the way).

Tomi T Ahonen

Thanks guys!

About May 2011 vs May 2012. Obviously I linked to the right page, somehow my vacation-oriented brain had me mixing 2012 as 'this year' and 2011 as 'last year'... Corrected it now. I was rushing it as you probably can tell from the writing, as they were getting ready to call my flight, so now will take a considered look and edit and clean up the blog article some more..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Interested to know

Tomi, you've done great work on this blog. You've been one of the few people who have had the wisdom and knowledge to see what has really been going on at Nokia. To your credit, you been far and away the best and most accurate predictor of Nokia and Microsoft's (lack of) success in the mobile business.

I think the biggest compliment to give you is to say that you are the Nate Silver of smartphones. In this day and age, where Microsoft and Nokia are sponsoring 50-cent-party propaganda campaigns and spoon-feeding lies to idiot tech "journalists", you're actually doing real analysis combined with your industry experience and deep knowledge of the subject matter.

Great job fighting to expose this nonsense. Maybe one day someone in Finland will wake up and say "enough".

And please keep deleting these trolls!

Vladimir

Don't know about the rest of the world, but in Canada there really is no option to even buy the lumia line. I was interested in trying it, but the only two carriers that have the 920 are Rogers and Bell; both companies I despise, so I won't be buying one based on the ridiculous exclusivity agreements Nokia has in place.

It seems to me that they are hampering their own potential by not offering their phones on more carriers, or at least allowing unlocked purchases here.

Tomi T Ahonen

To all, a bit more..

I am rushing now, will come back with better time and focus a bit later.

I just Tweeted a few quick thoughts more about Nokia. One very relevant one is the USA market data. The revenues jumped massively, that looks good initially, until you read the fine print, its a one-off, the RIM royalty payment - NOT caused by Lumia sales. The reality of USA? After all this love-fest of AT&T and Verizon and T-Mo having Lumiafever apparently? Total Nokia North America handset sales grew from the miserable Q3 into Q4 - by 400,000 units. So there is your Lumiamiracle right there - AGAIN !!! They keep feeding us this baloney, that Lumia and Windows Phone is selling in the millions and millions but then when the numbers come out, its nothing. No Lumiamillions in USA after WP8. Only a measly 400,000 more sales. Pathetic !!

I will be doing at least one further Nokia deep smartphones Q4 blog, with the regional stuff etc. Then I'll do at least one blog about Nokia strategy and corporation and possible take-over etc. Then also I'll do one blog about my forecasts and revisiting them. So those of you who are regulars, hold on, if these are on your mind, we'll do them properly soon...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

vladkr

@Vladimir:
Telus has Samsung ATIV and Nokia Lumia 620.

If you're in GTA, there are two MS Stores where you may test Lumia (and be sold a surface

Same thing if you're around Vancouver or Edmonton

David

Hi Tomi, this is the very first time I ever see your blog. All I can say is WOW! This is astonishing! This looks like a EPIC FAILURE! How incredible has been the fall of Nokia! Meanwhile, Apple is growing, Samsung is growing... everyone else is growing in a growing market as is the smartphones... except Nokia.

BTW, I have a WP 7.5 phone (HTC HD7) and it's not that bad... the only thing it has me bored is the lack of apps... but that's because the Marketplace uses the es-CO store. God, why I can't access the en-US store or whatever? :(

Vladimir

@vladkr

Thanks for the info. Virgin also has the HTC 8s, but I was interested in the 920 as I heard good things about the camera. Next time I'm downtown I'll have to check out the MS Store in the Eaton Center; I am interested in the surface pro with the wacom digitizer.

Spawn

@t brogtrop

> > That makes a world of difference from a shareholder's point of view

> If you bought in into Q3 and sold Q4 you indeed did profit. Great for you, Still doesn't change anything for Nokia or shareholders who where in before Elop burned there values.

Update: Oh, seems all current shareholders got just screwed again.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-24/nokia-to-omit-dividend-for-first-time-in-143-years.html

"Nokia Oyj will skip a dividend for the first time in at least 143 years as the struggling Finnish mobile-phone maker retains cash for its comeback attempt."

What means they except that cash-burning will continue beyong 2012-Q4 / 2013-Q1. So what was that news they make profit again? Anotger fake? I don't wonder.

Spawn

@Alex Kerr

> Nokia need to buy Jolla

First I doubt Jolla would accept. Nokia is the titanic and jumping on wil
drag you down with them.

Looking at Nokia's financial situation, bindings and future and comparing with possibilities and the hundred of millions investment Jolla has it would be them being able to buy Nokia (excluding patents) and not the other way around. But who lijes to buy something that consists mostly of failed management-levels, no R&D, no assets beisde patents?

Nokia is lost. We should start to accept that.

> So with a change of policy and leadership, they would love to come back, I think.

There is nothing left beside management in Nokia, There is nothing left to return to. I am at a poibt where I doubt firing Elop could save them any longer. Its just to late and the wounds he left bleed to strong.

RIP. May many more new companies like Jolla spring off before.

Spawn

@Tomi

This from interested-to-know I like to sign and stamp:

"
In this day and age, where Microsoft and Nokia are sponsoring 50-cent-party propaganda campaigns and spoon-feeding lies to idiot tech "journalists", you're actually doing real analysis combined with your industry experience and deep knowledge of the subject matter
"

Lot of us are mobile-geeks, Nokia-fans (the old Nokia) naturally, lover of tech & communication and turned this into our profession, our day-job and night-dreams.

You may not have the reach of FoxNews, CNN or CBS but those you reach are way more clever, listen and learn. Keep on the great work!

GregoryPeckAllied&cowboys

Ciao Tutti!
Tomi, you have made great forecasting, all credits!
This paper gives lot of insights to NOK status quo.
http://www.results.nokia.com/results/Nokia_results2012Q4e.pdf

Oh boy, there are some reasons explaining sad Q1, like:
--> consumer demand, particularly for our Lumia and Asha smartphones;

probably will be lot better in Q2 so no worries mates

I am a reader of this blog, but not too often to comment, this time I thought its meaningful to share link since i did not see others sharing it already

Enjoy reading all

bjarneh


Alex Kerr> Nokia need to buy Jolla

it would be a dream if this entire Elop fiasco could be rewound, but Microsoft NEEDS Nokia like never before, as Tomi stated they are basically Windows Phone's biggest success; if we can call it that. I.e. I think Microsoft will cling onto Nokia with both hands and hold it firmly, if Nokia goes to another platform, Windows Phone is not just in bad shape, it would be fatal. they would have wasted an insane amount of money and got nothing in return.

BB10 should be lauching in under 1 week, and they seem to understand one thing very well, how to build the infrastructure.

1) developers get 10.000 USD guaranteed if they create an app that makes at least 1.000 USD
2) Android apps can be ported by just uploading your .apk (packaged program) to a website
3) they offer at least 4 different ways of writing apps

this is CLEVER, tons of developers will upload their Android app, since it's basically zero hassle, and you get a bigger audience. the choice of how you develop you app is clearly appealing to developers, the cash price is also much more inviting than what other platforms offer, to name a few shortcomings:

1) Bada, Linux based OS with a Windows only SDK (Linus Torvalds must be a big fan!)
2) Windows Phone/IOS requires you to buy a Windows PC or a Mac to develop (why?)
3) You often need to pay to publish in the app-store; for what? you help them out?


worth mentioning that the state owned NRK in Norway had a Nokia turn-around story today here:

http://www.nrk.no/okonomi/nokia-snur-fra-minus-til-pluss-1.10885744

HEADLINE: Nokia goes from negative to positive results.
BOTTOM: The sale of their flagship Lumia devices is also going fairly well, selling 4.4 million in November and December.

hmm, go figure..

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi all

Also several great points made in the comments here that I have to address, like the shift in the 'balance of payments' of this 'partnership'. So Nokia has gotten the 'better part' of the money deal with Microsoft up to now, and it will shift now to Microsoft's gain. Meaning? Microsoft gave a little bribe to get Nokia hooked, and now Nokia has to pay into perpetuity, ever bigger licenses to Microsoft for Windows... Good move by Ballmer obviously, totally Microsoftian move

Also helps explain why Ballmer isn't pretending anymore to be Elop's BFF..

Hey on the Jolla idea - yeah, totally agree, in a perfect world, that IS what Nokia should do. Notice that abandoning MeeGo was a colossal mistake (fire Elop) and get a second chance, by buying much of the MeeGo competence back which now lives at Jolla... But even if Elop was removed from the equation, I can't see it working - most of all because of Jolla. I can't see them abandoning their 'freedom' with the promising start they've made, and agree to go and be slaves to the old fogies at Nokia who let them go in the first place.

I have my own fantasy of poetic justice - maybe Jolla succeeds nicely alone, becomes big enough, that when Nokia is sold and split apart, Jolla could bid to buy the Nokia brand.. THAT would be poetic justice haha..

Most of you regulars at this blog will know the N9 and N950 story, and most who know it, will agree, those could have been - and some techie reviewers even said so in their reviews - could have been the iPhone-slayers. Now fast-forward two years, what would have been the follow-up if Nokia had kept MeeGo going? Very likely what Jolla will offer the world this year, is close to what Nokia's MeeGo 2.0 might have looked like. And judging by how massively the N9 beat out the early Lumia contenders, Jolla may well be something astonishing when we later see it this year.. I can't wait :-)

(and i hope and pray, and hope and pray, that from whatever they do, there will be one QWERTY variant in the style of N950, N900, E7 - that I will have to buy,.)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Toni Ahonen

To anyone reading this, perhaps even the Author, Tomi.

I've been lurking here for a while now, maybe 2-3 years. First I thought Tomi was just another unsatisfied former executive from Nokia, bashing MS & Elop. I hold some of the Nokia shares and all I can say is.. I should've paid more attention to this guy.

Seriously. You tried to warm me, but I thought I knew better. LOL! Too bad my ignorance is a costly habit for me. Luckily its only euros, not my health.

Besides that I've grown to appreciate your writings. Twitterflood is sometimes bit overwhelming and you sometimes repeat yourself a bit, but man, you know where the nails are going to sink. Deadly accurate with your analysis. I'll keep reading this blog.

I still kinda want Lumia 920-ish phone with qwerty keyboard though. A new E7-kinda phone.

Kind regards,

Me

Jason Virginian

The US govt has a clear goal of controlling all global information systems; NOKIA and its dominance in cellphones with servers outside of the US had to be sunk ; hence it was targeted first by a massive media campaign in blogs etc against Symbian. The trojan horse Elop was then sent in to do his damage and infect all future Nokia´s with Microsoft ; result now is all Nokia phones come with the usual open backdoor access for any US agency and all communication is routed via US servers where it is stored for use when necessary for political,business, strategic needs to further US interests.

TimoT

Just a suggestion: You should maybe try to improve the commenting section, like with hoocoodanode.org or disqus or similar system. The first one is popular in many blogs.

The comments to this entry are closed.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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