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« Final Score on Most Important Forecast of 2011 - Once Again Tomi Ahonen Most Accurate Forecaster in Mobile (Nokia, Lumia, Windows) | Main | Nokia Disaster Told One Picture at a Time: Today Picture 7: When is a Platform "Burning": The Test Of CEO Sanity (alternately titled:) Is Elop Really This Delusional? »

January 29, 2013

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Hans Hellström

But if Elop wanted to drive Nokia into the ground why didn't he just stick to symbian and let run into the ground even with the anna and belle uprgrade it is still far behind iOS and Android in useability. Meego as you wrote on Feb. 14th in your autopsy text "First, we cannot blame Elop for this. He did not kill MeeGo in February 2011. He was one of the finalists for CEO, who had to propose a plan to solve Nokia's severe crisis. That involved painful cuts no matter how you looked at it. The Board approved a plan in September, where one part meant MeeGo was dead. Elop didn't kill MeeGo now. It died last September and the Board approved that plan where MeeGo would go." Meego was a system with promise but no real ecosystem to support it. BB10 and Ubuntu phone OS have the same problemm right now. Windows phone had atleast somekind of ecosystem round 75000apps during the 800 launch. One more thing if Elop wants to drive Nokia into the ground why must the company post profit during Q4 and cut its Dividend in order to back up cash reserves, I mean give a dividend to the shareholder so that the company would be faster out of money the stock will fall to the summer low it must god forbid if it would go up. The last thing why did Elop make the 920 such a good phone that you have to wait to buy it?!? i mean they could just have sold the old 900 with a wp8 upgrade that would have done trick atleast then you could get one now.

vladkr

@Hans Hellström :

1- Elop is distributing Nokia's assets to friends (Patent trolls + Microsoft). That takes time.

2- keeping Nokia alive, letting its share to follow a roller-coaster pattern allows well informed people to speculate on it, and then to make a lot of money.

--> The longer Elop keeps Nokia in a bad shape, the more he (and his friends) makes money. (think that variations on Nokia's share are very ample and frequent, and he controls movements every time he opens his mouth)

Hans Hellström

@vladkr Maybe but that's bit of long shot since sock price has doubled since summer when Tomi was so sure that Microsoft or someone would buy Nokia. The patents sold were mostly Meego related stuff sold to Jolla. If elop controls the stock movement with his mouth isn't it in everyones intrest for the stock to up?!? since the short sellers took quite a beating during the stock rise during christmas. You also have to remeber that the stocks in IT/technology sector are quite volatile like Apple, Nokia, Rim and others with the exception of Microsoft whose stock has been hovering around 30USD for the past 10 years(2008 fianacial crisis excluded). When it comes to patents it would be much easier to run the company right into the ground and not even bother to make course correction it would be hell of alot cheaper to buy them. People tend to forget that Nokia was on a collison course and heading for doom long before Elop took over the markets where changing with iOS and android. @John why would 4,4 million people or even 5-6million if Nokia would have had enough to supply buy a WP Device from Nokia alone in Q4?

Spawn

@ Hans Hellström

and small extension:

> Meego was a system with promise but no real ecosystem to support it.

MeeGo and Symbian formed one ecosystem through Qt. And right now BB10 and Ubuntu Phone would be part of that same ecosystem.

> BB10 and Ubuntu phone OS have the same problemm right now.

You seem to have missed that there was an Android runtime for MeeGo and BB10 ships with an Ansdroid runtime.

This means they have access and form one ecosystem with Android.

How will you beat that with the failed WP eco-ghosttown?

Hans Hellström

@Spawn Yes but that would require the app maker to put in the BB10 conversion which i doubt that every one has made and it takes time. Ubuntu cant run android apps http://techcrunch.com/2013/01/02/the-ubuntu-phone-os-doesnt-stand-a-chance/ and building up an ecosystem takes time. So if WP market place is so DEAD does it have over 400+apps submitted every day and why would they have to hire extra staff at microsoft and cancel Xmas holidays for the app submission staff because no one is apparently putting apps there.Can you give me one reason that we shouldn't let windows phone succeed since I think its good from a customer point of view that there is competetition that pushes development of better products and not a duopoly between Android and iOS and like Apple and google are any more evil than Microsoft? Altough my money on the new competitors is on Jolla simply for the reason that Jolla can run android apps and UI looks good.

vladkr

@Hans Hellström :

Sold Patents were mostly 3G, 4G/LTE and other radio technology (just make a research on your favourite search engine for keywords "Nokia", "Patents", "Mosaid" and "Vringo")... and that will be only part of the story.

Nokia did not sell Patents related to Meego (Samsung was ready to pay billions for the whole package). From Nokia's point of view, Meego (and even Meltemi) cannot survive, neither at Nokia, nor anywhere else.

And no, the share price doesn't have to be high to be interesting to traders; cycles allowing to buy shares at low prices, and sell them when higher few times a year is much more paying, especially if one knows when the share will dive or rise.

Example :

If one buys Nokia shares just after Elop Osbourns Lumia 710/800/900 at 1.32 Euro each, can sell them when Nokia announces a new Pureview Device (Lumia 920), when the share reaches 2.7 Euros but before Nokia informs the 920 will be released only 3 months later, in some countries (1.92 Euros - buy) and then sell again when Nokia announces Q4 results are not as bad as expected.

So, if one invested 132,000 Euros in July (100,000 shares), (s)he doubled the pot in the end of August : 270,000 euros (that's 138KEuros earned in 1.5 month, doing nothing).

If the same person invested again these 270KEuros in the beginning of September - 1.82Euros/share, (s)he would have bought 148,352 shares, which in mid January (not that bad Q4 press release) were valued at 3.5 Euros = a total of 519,230 Euros.

So in less than 6 months, a trader who invested 132,000 Euros earned 387,230 Euros, doing absolutely nothing.

Imagine that people like Elop and friends can invest tens or even hundreds times these values (through ghost-companies), you can imagine easily how much they could earn in just 6 months with this little game.

It's much more exciting than waiting for a hypothetical 40Euros/share which will never come back

Hans Hellström

@sure but then again that can be applied to any other company stocks go up and down and I find bit farfeched maybe it's true maybe not i really dont care since this can be applied to almost every single other company that is listed on Nasdaq or any other stock market around the world there is always shady backroom deals going on but what can we learn from this: When Elop buys you buy when he sells you sell we all make money that way. When it comes to patent's you are right but companies buy nd sell patents all the time nothing special. Elop was the outsider to shake up the company that's management was too in love with it's own products and failed to see problems when they emerged. I dont see really any other way to go android perhaps but then again they would have just been a another android maker in the basket. I think they should have persisted another 6months with meego and the jumped on the MS train if that strategy would have failed. Elop is Gambling on MS unlike RIM nokia can survuve without MS if it totally fails. Nokia's problem during Kallasvuo was software. This could still pay off in the long run the apple train is starting to loose steam their OS is starting to get stale and iPhone hasn't really changed all that much and it seems that Apple will do the same mistakes as Nokia why change something when it's earning us a shitload of money and I dont see Cook making any big changes why should he?. If Apple continues on the path that it is now we might see an even bigger crash than Nokia and the those who have now bought shares will make a ton of cash on Nokia

glonq

I totally missed this contest, but for the sake of bragging rights, I'm taking July 3.

firecracker

But Tomi Elop is a success as a CEO anyways according to this paid article http://politiken.dk/tjek/ECE1881012/nu-rykker-windows-phone/ (in danish fyi)

EmmanuelM

Tomi, Daddy Tomi :-)

It would be interesting to put the guess in a graphical view (nb of guesses per week), this would show the 'consensus' of when Elop would be fired...

Michael Demetriouq

Tomi, I think you missed my entry, here is the tweet https://twitter.com/qwazix/status/296212726261366784

Regards,

Michael

CapitanSevilla

14th April 2014

Med0paW

Nov 11th 2013

Prem

Donno the date but like to see him off and humiliated publicly for embarrassing the world of Nokia ASAP.

nasiola

30 days to go.

AndThisWillBeToo

@Tomi

"It could be that Elop resigns. It could be that he departs for any other reason - or if he hangs on for long enough, that Elop retires from the CEO position."

Just to make sure: if the unlikely event takes place that Elop is assigned as CEO of Microsoft, it apparently counts as "otherwise removed from office as Nokia CEO"?

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