A little over a year ago I had the Twitter contest to guess what market share Windows Phone will achieve in smartphones in Q4 of 2012. We are now only days from finding out. Here are all the entrants to that contest from November 2011. So I thought we could have another Twitter-based guessing game contest. I asked my followers to send in their submissions of what date they think we will hear that Elop will be gone.
So its not the actual date he departs Nokia, its the date we hear about it - when Nokia officially announce it. This could be that Elop is fired (as I have advocated on this blog now for more than a year, he is after all the most incompetent CEO in charge of any Fortune 500 sized company today). It could be that Elop resigns. It could be that he departs for any other reason - or if he hangs on for long enough, that Elop retires from the CEO position.
If Nokia reassign Elop to any other duty that does not include CEO, like President for example, that counts. Or if Nokia is bought in some acquisition, then that is the date. Or if Nokia is split in two, with two CEO's - then that is the date. (Except if NSN is separated into its own independent entity, that doesn't count as Elop has been in the process of disposing of NokiaSiemens Networks ever since he took over. I mean, if the Nokia handsets unit is split into smartphones and dumbphones and those become independent entities with their own CEOs and separately entered to the stock market, that kind of thing, like what happened with Motorola before its handset part was sold to Google). But if Nokia is in a merger where Elop turns out to be the new CEO of the new entity of the two companies, in that case we count Elop still continuing as the CEO.
I asked my Twitter followers to submit an actual date of when they think the announcement comes that Elop will be gone. I kept the contest open for 24 hours on Twitter and received 105 entries. I have now posted all entrants here to this blog, and then we'll have a count-down, to see who guesses the exact date or comes closest. The winner gets his or her choice of 3 of my published ebooks: my Almanac, my Phone Book, or any of my Pearls series of ebooks. I will also award to two nearest guesses a runner-up prize of one ebook of their choice. All my books, hard cover books and ebooks are here, Tomi Ahonen books.
PS anyone who comes here as a Microsoft or Nokia fan-boy trying to claim Elop is a success as a CEO, your comments will be deleted without mercy. Elop has presided over a world record collapse of a global market leader. He literally exchanged growing dominating profitable business for declining, miniscule loss-making business. He has managed a management fiasco that will be studied in MBA courses for decades to come. The damage to Nokia under Elop is greater than what New Coke was to Coca Cola; what the Exxon Valdez tanker spill was to Exxon; worse than what the brakes global vehicle recall problem was to Toyota; worse than the Deepwater Horizon oil rig spill to BP and worse than what the A-Series launch (car too dangerous to drive into corners) was to Mercedes Benz. Elop's self-caused damage to Nokia is literally the world record in corporate managemnet failure.
The name Elop is synonymous with the biggest management failure of all time, his name will go down in infamy. Mr 'Call me the General' as a strategy 'genius' is to winning what water is to fire. In reality he is only a Pretend-Patton, utterly clueless in any strategic thought. And I'm not the only one calling him a massive failure, Elop is a finalist for the worst CEO of the year at CNBC for example. So I have not invented these problems, Elop caused these himself. Now its time to see how long it takes for the Nokia Board to fire his sorry ass. And this is the Twitter-contest to see who guessed the departure date most accurately.
This is the full list of contestants, in chronological order of their submission, by year and month:
Elop Firing-watch
During 2013
January 29 - Nicolas Kaiser @nikai3d
February 1 - new_guy (from blog)
February 6 - MoZeal @MoZeal
February 11 - Nicola De Filippo @niqt
February 11 - Michael (from blog)
February 18 - 99centimos @99centimos
February 24 - Matthew Aguilera @Matt_Aguilera
February 25 - Balagopal @balagopalks
March 1 - Baba Megan @jmumbo
March 31 - Onigold @Onigold
April 2 - Oscar-Panuko @OzkarGmz
April 8 - Giacomo Di Giacomo @gdg69
April 8 - MickyFin @MickyFin
April 14 - Jukka Pirilä @JukkaPiril
April 18 - Jonas Elofsson @AFV_Jonas
April 20 - Harry Järn @h_jarn
April 24 - Chris Knight @stryqx
April 28 - Dara Junzi @Dext_r
April 30 - Nagaraj M Shenoy @NMShenoy
April 30 - Peter Frederiksen @Pedling
April 30 - Omar Moya @miusuario
May 1 - Dundar Cetin @dundarcetin
May 1 - Jani Ahomaki @loves2travel2
May 4 - Ben Eng @jetpen
May 7 - Sami Hero @samihero
May 7 - Joonas Ahonen @ahonentj
May 11 - Minsuk @gabal_kr
May 14 - Jennifer Bensko Ha @dupkaspike
May 16 - Davide Magini @Polemix
May 16 - Emmanuel Marchiset @EmmanuelM01
May 25 - @GorrTom
May 27 - Inês Pereira @slayraa
May 29 - hfvienna @hfvienna
June 1 - Mandar Lele @mandarlele
June 1 - Edward Batten @edwardrbatten
June 6 - Josep M Porta @porabajo
June 14 - yalnte @yalnte
June 20 - duvin @duvin1
June 30 - udhien.net @udhien
July 1 - Timo @pispalanpicasso
July 2 - André Koot @meneer
July 10 - Vitor Hugo @vitor_hugo
July 19 - John Waclawsky (via blog)
July 20 - Milla Peltoniemi @tunturikissa
July 20 - Rich s @Rich_Enduro
July 20 - Magnus Alburg @mgrubla
July 24 - Jakub Lipiński @jakublipinski
July 26 - Yeswap @yeswap
July 27 - Magnus Dahl @twittmdl
July 31 - JD! @hmmJD1
July 31 - Anton @corbas_ai
August 14 - Sanjay Tourani @sanjaytourani
August 15 - Ben Fletcher @BenFletch
August 15 - Glen Browley @gbrowley
September 1 - aizaz ul haq @piousprince0
September 6 - Morgan Schylander @shma666
September 13 - Franklin Nwa @franklinnwa
September 13 - Tired (from blog)
September 21 - Pirkka Poole @Pierkka
September 20 - Timothy Jasionowski @timoj
September 20 - Henrique Martin @henriquemartin
September 27 - Duncan Stewart @dustewar
September 30 - Earendil Star (via blog)
October 3 - Zoltan Sekeres @zoliton
October 10 - Henri Servomaa @hts
October 11 - symbianfoundation @kok_andy
October 15 - Dave Koelmeyer @davekoelmeyer
October 16 - Mikey @anti_nomy
October 17 - ejvictor @ejvictor
October 21 - Jaume Teixi @JaumeTeixi
October 22 - Jouko Ahvenainen @jahven
October 24 - Jarmo Laaksonen @jarmolaaksonen
October 31 - Simon Rees @Simon_D_Rees
November 5 - Stephen Ballot @stephenballot
November 25 - SteP @debexpert
December 5 - biatch0.bat @biatch0r
December 20 - KeesMulder @KeesMulder
December 23 - evan kirstel @evankirstel
During 2014
January 1 - That Black Hausa Guy @sanisabo
January 3 - Jon Arne S. @jonarnes
January 5 - Musa'b @Musab_2012
January 10 - Agus Setiawan @agusset1awan
January 13 - vladkr (from blog)
January 14 - Kevin Ahoy @FlightsimGeek
January 15 - So Vatar (from blog)
January 20 - Sergio @sergior
January 25 - anthony contoleon @anthony_p_c
February 22 - Alberto Mardegan @mardy
March 13 - Vedhas Patkar @vedhaspatkar
March 24 - Manuel Vidonis @vidonism
April 30 - Fra @fravaccaro
May 15 - bill fasse @billboxer
June 30 - Tilman Jentzsch @blickwechsel
July 14 - Buttface Elop @elopbuttface
July 19 - Sami Mäkeläinen @smakelainen
August 29 - Antonio F Crespo @afc1971
October 1 - XPilot @XPilot
November 20 - Baba Megan @jmumbo
December 15 - Kim Bruning @Kim_Bruning
During 2015
January 8 - Kai Keinänen @kaikeinanen
Feb 11 - Yousif Abdullah @yousifabdullah
July 13 - Tero Lahtinen @terolahtinen
July 15 - Gerard van der Weyde @gjvdweyde
Sept 10 - Anonymous Ex-Nokian @ExNokian
During 2016 (or after)
June 30 - ihatesheeps @snagdragon
That is it. If you have made your entry and see I have recorded it wrong, please let me know immediately, as I can still go back and see the Tweet to see what your exact submission was. I have tried to get all correctly, but of course as I have transcribed from Twitter to here, I may have made a mistake. We will use your original Tweet (or original comment here on this blog) as your official entry and I will correct any mistakes. If you sent a submission but it is not showing, let me know, I will add you, but your entry had to be received before the contest closed on 29 January 2013.
Good luck to all entrants. I will return to this list from time to time, highlighting who is next in line.. And I hope to be able to celebrate the winner soon, as obviously I hope Elop is fired 'any day now'... Thank you for playing!
OK, I start: September 30, 2013.
After an endless three year manure tenure.
Posted by: Earendil Star | January 29, 2013 at 01:14 AM
I didn't mean for entries to be given this way, Earendil, via the blog - but its ok, I'll take it and enter you, thanks.
I am actually closing the contest on Twitter in some hours, so if anyone else wants to enter via the blog, please hurry...
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | January 29, 2013 at 01:20 AM
you're in John
Tomi :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | January 29, 2013 at 01:49 AM
I fear the worst:
Jan 15 2014 it is when Flop leaves, just after Nokia announced another drop in smartphone market share and Goldman Sucks got the task to sell what's left of Nokia.
Posted by: So Vatar | January 29, 2013 at 02:06 AM
Feb 1,2013. No reason for the date, just wishful thinking.
Posted by: new_guy | January 29, 2013 at 03:38 AM
Got you both, So Vatar and new_guy
Tomi :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | January 29, 2013 at 03:46 AM
Is there any indication that the people who matter are finally fed up with him?
I mean Nokia has already spun their dismal quarter that had both the WP8 launch AND Christmas so that people believe it was a success. They also warned next quarter was going to be bad so people won't expect much then.
Will they spin it as genius Elop rescued Nokia from the burning Symbian platform and now that his visionary plan has been executed, some fresh blood needs to come in to keep Nokia on this course?
Posted by: Interested to know | January 29, 2013 at 05:42 AM
13 September 2013. If That's any time near the Q3 report.
Posted by: Tired | January 29, 2013 at 05:57 AM
Would you, Tomi clarify one thing, just to avoid unnecessary discussions.
"Or if Nokia is split in two, with two CEO's - then that is the date."
You don't count NSN becoming a separate company such a case? They already have a CEO and one might assume that if NSN's becomes fully independent, Suri will (?) continue there and Elop would continue with what's left of Nokia.
Posted by: CN | January 29, 2013 at 06:03 AM
I don't think Stephen Elop will be sacked and he will stay on board until Nokia is safely driven into the ground. If the BOD was working for the interest of Nokia, then he would have been sacked long ago.
Posted by: AtTheBottomOfTheHilton | January 29, 2013 at 09:27 AM
My pick is Feb 11th 2013.
Posted by: Michael | January 29, 2013 at 11:53 AM
Dear Tomi,
Please clarify why do you consider only Elop has to be fired (or resign) after this disaster? Has he taken all this crazy decisions by himself? Nobody else is to blaim and also has to step down?
It seems to me that his departure will make him look like a scape goat, when the entire board backed his decisions.
Posted by: Mike | January 29, 2013 at 01:11 PM
Elop will leave when Nokia will run out of money...
When will it happen ? Hard to say.
But if I had to bet on one date, I would say one week before Q4-2013 results... so it should be in the 2014 Jan 13-19th... so Let's say Jan 13th, to not copy So Vatar ;)
Posted by: vladkr | January 29, 2013 at 01:31 PM
Nobody will fire Elop anytime soon.
Microsoft and American funds control today Nokia, like they did 2 years ago.
Elop is doing an excellent job for Microsoft, in 2013, is looking that with micro sales of 6m Lumia per quarter Nokia will have to pay Microsoft offsetting the 250m support that did cost billions of losses in Nokia balances.
Without Nokia Windows Phone will be dead already.
Microsoft with surface tablet shows that alone has no hope to sales any decent amount of devices.
Elop will stay much longer as you think
Tchuss
e_lm_70
ps: Only way to get rid of Elop would be a miracle from Finnish Justice Department : investigate and imprison the criminal CEO
Posted by: elm70 | January 29, 2013 at 01:34 PM
Ok gang
The contest entry time is now closed. All who entered before this comment are in - including Tired, Michael and vladkr, but anyone submitting an entry after this comment will be ignored sorry. the contest is now closed. good luck to all who entered
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | January 29, 2013 at 01:58 PM
I'm surprised to see that some didn't answer the contest (E. Murtazin and other specialists), neither have I seen your answer Tomi :
- they didn't have time to answer?
- too hard to answer?
- refused to answer for some other reason?
But I agree with Elm that Elop will remain on position while Nokia survives.
However, I don't think a miracle can come from Finland, as Finnish authorities can't do anything (Nokia is a private company). The only ones who can do anything are Stock Exchange authorities, but that's only if they can prove there's insider trading (which is quite hard, even if only one knows the facts exist)
Posted by: vladkr | January 29, 2013 at 02:33 PM
It's still 29th Jan here in Finland, so I go with 15/7/2013 :)
Posted by: niilolainen | January 29, 2013 at 03:19 PM
15 March 2015. too late :(
Come on, Toi. Elop is good at his "job", he is executing the prime directive.
"Promote Window Phone by any means necessary"
Even if it means promoting competiton's WinPho, running Nokia to the ground, giving IP away...
I imagine he made many one-sided contracts with Microsoft. He leaves his position when MS loses interest in Nokia.
Posted by: QtFan | January 29, 2013 at 04:13 PM
January 1, 2020.
I think the board is locked in mentally, and will hang on to him until he dies, retires, or Nokia goes bankrupt.
Wayne
Posted by: Wayne Borean | January 29, 2013 at 04:17 PM
Someone posted this on Groklaw - first here is the link:
http://www.groklaw.net/comment.php?mode=display&sid=20130128193820806&title=Windows%20phone%20compared%20to%20two%20generation%20old%20HTC&type=article&order=&hideanonymous=0&pid=1028429#c1028444
And here is the text:
*****
Windows phone compared to two generation old HTC
Authored by: kg on Tuesday, January 29 2013 @ 02:27 AM EST
Things must be really desperate in Redmond. I recently received an email from Windows Phone Insider. They linked a video demonstrating how much better the Nokia Lumea 920 is at taking video. The odd thing about it is that they compared it to a discontinued (!) 2 generation old HTC Inspire 4G released February 2011.
Now granted, Microsoft released the video last November. But really? Comparing a current phone to a model almost 2 years old? I'd expect better. It shouldn't be about the upgrade path. Everyone expects something better from a newer phone. Is the Lumea really so bad that they don't dare face it off against a current model?
Link to video here
---
IANAL
Linguist and Open Source Developer
*****
Since I don't know how to make links work here, the text about a link above means this YouTube video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_TVf1-0nfY
Enjoy.
Wayne
Posted by: Wayne Borean | January 29, 2013 at 04:23 PM