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« Q4 Results and other notes from Smartphone Bloodbath - LG, Lenovo, RIM, ZTE, Jolla, Vertu, etc | Main | Quick Update in our 'Guess Windows Phone Q4 2012 Market Share' Twitter-contest »

January 31, 2013

Comments

Winter

@Tester
"I think, if full Win8 tablets are competetively priced they may be successful - not because of Metro and its hypothetical 'synergies' but because of access to classic desktop software."

After MS have killed the netbook market and destroyed it root and branch, MS release a.... netbook with detachable keyboard.

Tester

@Winter:

Please note the phrase 'competetively priced'. This whole thing won't fly if these tablets cost significantly more than the iPad.

As for the netbook market, are you sure it was Microsoft alone who killed it, can't it be that the customers just didn't have sufficient interest in the product? I know I couldn't have cared less about these things.

They always struck me as being too small for home work and too clunky for mobile work.

Here's a quote from Wikipedia:

>> A June 2009 NPD study found that 60% of netbook buyers never take their netbooks out of the house.

... which to me looks like the netbooks completely failed be do what they were supposed to be. Of course such a product will fail, Microsoft intervention or not.

Winter

@Tester,

I still have a EeePC 4G. It still runs nicely on Crunchbang Linux. It weights only 900 grams and you can connect a keyboard. mouse, and VGA screen to it. I used it a lot whenever I wanted to travel light between work-places and to conferences.

However, MS forced them off the shelves by forcing XP onto them and then enforcing all kind of ridiculous limitations (1GB RAM, hard disk obligatory).

A Surface tablet is simply another netbook, just much more expensive and with shorter battery life.

Tester

Well, that kind of reasoning can be safely filed under 'urban myth', I'd say.

From today's view they strike me as an utterly redundant product: Too large for mobile internet access, too small for serious work.

They were obsolete right when the first iPad was released.

Had they been more popular Microsoft would have been powerless to obstruct their sales.

And no, a tablet with detachable keyboard is not the same as a netbook.

Winter

@Tester
"From today's view they strike me as an utterly redundant product: Too large for mobile internet access, too small for serious work."

There is an old joke that goes like:
I am tired and sick of telling all these people that we do not carry that product because there is no demand for it.

And netbooks were hugely popular until XP and a hard drive were forced onto them. Two factors that made them popular were low price (~$200) and weight (~900 grams). There simply was nothing comparable at all.

ejvictor

@Baron95...Dang what you using?! Lotus 1-2-3 as a spreadsheet?

okay so you ARE new to mobile.... The truth is that the high end mobile user has always generated an APRU of $120-$145 a month – before the iPhone. The iPhone exclusivity deal triggered the creation of a bloated data program at AT&T, the $50/mo unlimited data plan. This was created because the iPhone is a data pig – Fact.

What killed profitability is that the iPhone was targeted to CONSUMERS not Business people, consumers were paying $50-60/mo for total bill prior to iPhone, now bill doubled AND if they continued to use SMS and voice at the tiered tariff rates the average iPhone bill would be over $200. That would be good for carriers, but no consumer would tolerate that price.

Back in the day when I was CIO at Americans second largest direct marketing firm; AT&T, Sprint, Verizon could spend $300 to acquire a new subscriber, because the life time value (LTV) of a customer was about $4,500…. Lots more than your Apples $2,280. That was before number portability, which killed LTV for carriers.

Back to Plan pricing, So Carriers started to erase tiered plans and PROFITS! Gone tiered voice, Gone tiered SMS, Gone intra carrier mobile minutes, Gone mobile minutes charged between carriers, Gone data tiers…. Gone profits BECAUSE NOW INFRASTRUCTURE IS TAXED TO BREAKING AND INFRASTRUCTURE IS BIG $$$$. So carrier gets it up the A$$ from Apple and get an infrastructure killer.

Now you are completely deluded about Apples role in LTE – remember they are a laggard in new tech, LTE, NFC,WiDi, Form Factors – it was Verizon that used it to counter the exclusivity of AT&T AND they saw the utter heaps of $hit that was being thrown on AT&T for having a network crushed under the iPig.

You probably are a Fox News type of guy... Verizon erosion of profit margins= iPhone, and has been a long standing issue... not just a Q4 2012 issue.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2012/01/24/verizon-4q-profit-misses-expectations/

So to the carriers, Apple is just like a really (pick your preference) hot woman/hunky guy with herpes, you love doing then for a while, your friend think you are really cool for pulling such a hottie, until the first outbreak, which really hurts and messes you up…and then you have to live with it for the rest of your life.

CN

@Baron

Your first point I never challenged.

Your second point I may have misread, so sorry about that. However, you make a false claim again. Japan and Korea alone beat VZ's subs count hands down.

Winter

@Baron95
"@Winter - Dude - Tomi deleted all the comments I've made on LTE, only to be embarrassed into putting a footnote on a blog, where he calls the US market a "laggard". LO"

Not all of them. At least one of your LTE comments per post is left.

Anyhow, the USA lags the rest of the world in everything mobile but price. The duopoly that rules the USA phone service keeps prices at twice what we pay in, eg, Europe. Penetration, coverage, service, contracts are all worse than in, say, Korea and Europe.

Lasko

I wish you the best explaining Baron95 that the sun does not circle the USA.

Winter

@Lasko
Never underestimate the questions raised by fools and trolls.

vladkr

@Winter :
"the USA lags the rest of the world in everything mobile but price"

I have to disagree... prices in the US/Canada are much higher than in Europe, and I suppose, the rest of the world.

Sander van der Wal

@ejvictor

But what happens to a carrier whot dumps iPhone? They loose all their iPhone customers, or not? I'm ure that the carriers are not happy with the way things are progressing, but who cares anyway? That is how business works.

Winter

@Sander van der Wal
"But what happens to a carrier whot dumps iPhone?"

What happens to them? The world is full of carriers that do not discount iPhones more than high end Galaxy phones. Are they going bankrupt?

Bästa Stationära Recensioner

Very nice Post !!!!

ejvictor

@SandervanderWal

Apple like Herpes, can't get rid of it once you have it :) - you signed the contract with the devil! Why do you think the Deal with China Mobile taking so long.

Winter

And MS trending Down:

Microsoft can't even shift Windows 8 slabs in the middle of a tablet frenzy
Halve the price of RT then we're talking, says analyst
http://www.channelregister.co.uk/2013/02/07/canays_q4_tabs_pcs/

ejvictor

Comscore numbers out for September/December 2012

Windows phone LOST .07% market share and Nokia did not even crack top 5 OEM
AGAIN PROVING MO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE.

Winter

@ejvictor
MS: -0.7%

That is a lot when all you have left is 2.9%

Spawn

@Lasko

> I wish you the best explaining Baron95 that the sun does not circle the USA.

Nailed and sealed. Such believe usually manifest in peoples mind when they never left there home-town and for them, yes, everything circles around that central town. Reality is subjective.

Spawn

One more detail.

German only (sorry):
http://www.golem.de/news/nokia-lumia-620-hoeherer-preis-fuer-einsteiger-smartphone-mit-windows-phone-8-1302-97433.html

Translated:
Lumia 620 was planed/listed to be sold for 240 Euro but will now be sold for 270 Euro in germany.

30 Euro are around 40 Dollar. Remember our previous $250m per quarter WP license case? That was per phone ... $40.

Speaking about competative.

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