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« Picture 4 in Nokia Saga: How Badly the Promised Migration from Symbian to Windows Phone is Failing | Main | Picture 5 in Nokia Mess - How Hype, Hope and Hysteria Hide the Sad Truth - Lumia Sales Pattern »

January 15, 2013


Sander van der Wal

Stone tools are technology too. And they were mobile.


That's kind of an unfair comparison in your second paragraph. If you're saying pencil-and-paper penetration is below 100% on the grounds that some people can't read, you can't then turn around and claim mobile penetration is >100% because some people have more than one phone. A lot of people own multiple pencils too.


I think you might be underestimating how enormously competitive the pen, pencil and paper are. Also, some rudimentary agricultural staples like rice and corn are so ubiquitous they exist in large numbers.

However, mobile phones are probably the most widely adopted digital technology ever.


Tomi, you forgot the knife and fire as the most ubiquitous technologies ever. And the wheel as a technology used by almost every human in the last century. I think we can safely say that every human who ever lived has hold a knife and used a fire to cook or warm at least at one point in life.

But on the other hand, a new technology that is as ubiquitous as fire, the knife, and the wheel is a breakthrough. Indeed a milestone in human history. The world will never be the same (it never was, but anyhow).


Next milestone: A mobile phone for every tree:


I think he said gadget, but any way, fire had been remplaced by counter tops, and knife no everybody use them.

Insurance agencies are putting gsm trackers on cars with obdII, and i think news cars come gsm system integration to track faults. Does them count?

newbie reader

Here is another weird piece of "analytic" I found recently.

What is smartphone marketshare estimate for 2016 ?

Well, all forecasts for iOS/Android estimate are BS, nobody can foresee it.

However, some knowledge of year 2016 total smartphone marketshares is just common sense.

Consider this:

USA pop is about 1/3 of China pop. Number of mobile subscribtions in these countries is currently /2012/ about the same ratio.

Yet, here is IDC "forecast" for 2016 smartphone marketshares:

Country, 2011 Share, 2012 Share, 2016 forecast
China 18.3% 26.5% 23.0%
USA 21.3% 17.8% 14.5%

so, the forecasted 2016 ratio is about 23/14=1.64, up from 26/17=1.52 in 2012

What kind of "analytics" is that?


@newby reader
Just extrapolate a straight line. If you can draw a straight line you have a great future as an analyst.

In three years, India is tail chasing China. USA is somewhere in the back.

newbie reader

// extrapolate a straight line

Well, it looks like for a good career as IDC "analyst", one needs to know very well, whose straight lines are more staright than the others :)

I already did this good example here:!World_Wide_Smartphone_Sales_Share.png!World_Wide_Smartphone_Sales_Share.png!World_Wide_Smartphone_Sales_Share.png

Apparently, for a good IDC career, Apple line should be "more straight" than that of Android :)


@John Waclawsky/Duke:

Can you please refrain from spamming non-Nokia blog discussions with your rants? This is clearly off-topic here!


Then please post it in the discussion about Nokia, not in the one about Mobile accounts outnumbering humans.

Here it is indeed offtopic.


@John Waclawsky:

I'm sorry, but I have to agree with Tester on this being off-topic. If you can keep this to discussions about Nokia's problems it's ok, albeit still annoying. But here - in a discussion about mobile in general - they have no place and should be considered spamming or trolling.

Furthermore, you are quite the hypocrite. On the one hand you accuse Microsoft of astroturfing, but on the other hand resort to the same tactics to flood these discussions with your Microsoft-hate that goes well beyond the tolerance level of many readers here.

Too bad that the actual discussion about the 'mobile moment' is polluted by all this filth. It might have been an interesting topic.


@Tester, RottenApple


@John Waclawsky, Doke

I appreciate your effort, but it IS offtopic to this article. 'Nokia' or 'Windows Phone' is not even mentioned in this blog post. If you have anything to say post it to the corresponding article or wait for the next one to arrive.

Moderation requested.

Pete Austin

A lot of technologies outnumber people, if you count the individual items: knives, drinking vessels, food plates, shoes, etc..

newbie reader

// knives, drinking vessels, food plates, shoes

difference is, all of these could be reproduced by village, or small mediveal city, economy, with no more than some thousands of population. And many could be done by 1 person, or by his family/relatives.

While mobile is 'true advanced' /i.e. complicated, global/ tech.

It requires millions of people, rather advanced knowledge and huge chunk of 20th century level tech. Forget city-level, even most of smaller countries would probably be unable to reproduce it now on their own, even if they try.


Stephen Elop in the top 5 worst CEO of 2012 according to CNBC (page 3 = about Elop)

newbie reader

Japan: Google's Nexus 7 had 44% of the market versus the iPad's 40%

Apple iPad lost the number one in Japan for the first time since 2010

newbie reader

USA 2013Q1 consumer demand for iPhone5 drops to pre-release level.

Buyers, who plan to buy iPhone over next 90 days:

sep'11, 65% /iP4S release peak/
dec'11, 54%
mar'12, 56%
jun'12, 50%
sep'12, 71% /iP5 release peak/
dec'12, 50%

plan to buy Samsung phone over next 90 days:
jun'12, 19%
sep'12, 13%
dec'12, 21%

So, if we trust these numbers,
iP5 is losing the battle to Sammy, returning to pre-release lows, on its own weight. SGS4 has not even announced yet.
Also note that higher percentage of iPhone buyers buys older model, compared to iP4S release.

And that funny guy, Baron95, talks about 'less peaky business' here :)


@John Waclawsky
"Hopefully capitalizing NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET isn't bothering you too much. It is meant to annoy the trolls."

Actually, your capitalized soundbite has the effect to "cure" Google searches from the poisoning of the trolls. One primary aim of all the troll comments is to ensure that any critical comments are drowned in "positive" remarks in search results. Your repeated soundbite works as an anti-dote.

newbie reader

Consumer Reports:

iP5 is ranked 3rd for AT&T and Sprint, below SGS3, and is not even in Top 3 for Verizon.

1. LG Optimus
2. SGS3
3. iP5

1. LG Optimus
2. SGS3
3. iP5

1. SGS3
2. HTC One S
3. Note2

1. Moto Razr Maxx
2. Moto Razr
3. SGS3

/ And my pick would be: Verizon HTC DNA /

The comments to this entry are closed.

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