An Attempt to Validate the 150x Per Day Number Based On 'Typical User'

I've been working on that 150 times per day number. You may have heard it, Nokia was first to publish the number in 2010, saying that on average a mobile phone (not smartphone, any mobile phone) user will look at the phone 150 times per day. This not only in wild and woolly Finland, but across the planet. We had seen big numbers before, but they were all under 100 times per day and Nokia's bombshell 150 number was widely reported. And then, last year, T-Mobile USA verified the number for the US market as well - a market that severely lags the Industrialized World average in most things mobile - lagging often even many advanced Emerging World countries...  So when the USA cellphone users (not smartphone, any cellphone) are looking at their phones 150x per day, thats getting pretty serious.


UPDATE OCTOBER 8, 2014 - Now there is finally a consumer survey published with a published number. A UK survey of only smartphone users (not dumbphones included) found as one might expect, an even larger number. The survey of 2,000 British smartphone owners found they look at their phones 214 times per day. Read more here.



And last year we heard that in the UK, the average smartphone user looks at the phone 200x per day. But lets not worry now about Angry Birds addiction. Lets remain with the basic phone - four out of every five mobile phones in use on the planet still today is a 'dumbphone' ie not a smartphone. I have been trying to validate the 150x number and I've gotten pretty close. So this is my 'argument' in support of 150 times per day. WHAT would a 'typical user' do with the non-smartphone today, that results in looking at the phone once every 7 minutes of every waking hour of every single day? I'll paint a scenario, using for the best part, consumer statistics on behavior on phones, or replacement behavior, plus some observations and personal experiences and chats with some fellow experts.

MESSAGING 23 TIMES

So lets start with the feature used by more than any other as a percent of all mobile phone owners. No, its not voice calls anymore, more people have abandoned voice call use, than don't use SMS text messaging. The primary use of a mobile phone (including smartphones by the way) is mobile messaging. So, what kind of behavior do I see that gets us 23 looks at the phone as a messaging tool. The average person does not send 23 messages per day..

Among active users of SMS, the number is 6 SMS text messages sent per day. If you send 6 messages, you average also receiving 6 messages from your friends. Thats 12 times right there. But what's the rest?

Once per day we draft a message we don't send, or draft a message and save the draft, to edit and send ti later (remember, these are pretty addicted users, who send and receive 6 messages daily). Then we re-read messages (yes! We all do!). So the saved message that we love or hate or didn't understand. I'd say on average 2 times per day we re-read a message we read before. Plus we'd receive perhaps 1 unsolicited message, an ad or alert or reminder etc. And then we anticipate! We check in case there has been a message that had arrived, maybe we are awaiting a reply, maybe we hope for a contact, etc. I say we look for a message that isn't there typically more often, than messages actually arrive - so that would be 7 times we seeked a message that hadn't arrived (yet). That gives us 23 times looking at a phone relating to messaging. (and please don't write about OTT services like iMessage, Whatsapp, BBM or Skype - these are all used by a tiny tiny sliver of the total worldwide population, only Skype reaches 1 Billion users, vs over 5 Billion active SMS users. We are not talking of heavy messaging fanatics on smartphones on WiFi or all-you-can-eat data plans, we are talking typical users worldwide. That means SMS, not OTT)

VOICE CALLS 22 TIMES

Then the voice calls. The average phone user places 3 calls per day and also receives 3 calls. Where are the other 16 times? Interruptions! We have a dropped call (1x per day) or we make a call attempt that won't go through (1x per day). We miss a call that was coming, too slow to pull the phone out, or forgot we had changed our ringing tone (yes, we all have done that too). I say 1x per day we miss a call. Avoid a call? Yes that we also do, we see whose calling, and decide not to talk, send the bastard to voicemail jail. Thats 1x per day. But you know what. We look at the phone we we start the call - we ALSO have to look at the phone to end the call. So out of the 7 actual phone calls, we have to end 7 calls, that gives us 7 more times to look at the phone. Now I'm at 17 times per day. Where are the last 5? Anticipation again. We look at the phone awaiting or anticipating a call or call-back. I'd say 5 times per day. That gives a total of 22 times we look at our phone relating to voice calls, per day.

CLOCK 18 times per day

If the average person sleeps 8 hours per night, that gives us 16 hours awake. I say we play with the alarm going to sleep and waking up, so out of the 16 hours, there are only 14 hours when we are reasonably awake and care about what time it is, when we don't fiddle with the alarm or snooze. And of that, we then have some moments on a typical day, that we are anxious about time - in the morning, going to work or school, worrying about being on time - and I'd say we look at the clock two times at that occasion, rather than once per hour. Same around lunch-time at work/school, when is this interminable meeting going to end, isn't it lunch-time already? And again, at the end of the work/school day - when we anticipate getting away from work/school. So on those occasions, I'd say conservatively that we look at the clock twice per hour, and on other times, we are curious about what time it is, roughly once per hour - often very habitually, and even subconsciously - so you know the story, the wife sees the husband just glanced at the watch, and asks him, what time is it, and he can't tell you, even though he just looked at his watch a moment ago... Anyway, I get 18 total times we look at the clock on the phone, not counting setting or resetting or shutting the alarm.

ALARM 8 TIMES

Which brings us to the alarm. I've been saying for years that the mobile is the last thing we see before we fall asleep and the first thing we see when we wake up. Its nice to see that was also verified by the Time global mobile survey finally in 2012. But yes, what of the alarm? To set it, I'd say the average person does that once, and then once before falling asleep, or waking up at night, or a little before the wake-up, looks at the alarm setting, just in case. Thats 2 times total. Then the wake-up alarm, 1x more. And then snoozing. I'd say average person snoozes three times? That gives us 6 uses of the alarm as a wake-up. But its not the only use of the alarm. We also use it as a convenience reminder during the day. I'd add 2 more uses of the alarm daily, once to set, once to turn off the ringing. That gives us 8 times we look at the alarm feature on the phone.

CAMERA 8 TIMES

Then the camera. Most of us are not shutterbugs who take dozens of pictures every day, but the consumer surveys suggest the average cameraphone owner takes about 1 picture per day. How do I get 8 times to look at the phone? First we have to launch the camera app. Then we have to aim the camera at our object. Then we take a picture. And we have to check if the picture turned out good. And likely it wasn't good enough. We take a second picture. And look at that picture, decide its a keeper. Then we delete the first pic. And finally, we randomly look or show a picture during the day. That gives me 8 uses of camera.

MUSIC PLAYER 13 TIMES

Not everybody uses music on the phone but nearly half of mobile phone owners do consume some kind of music from music streaming services to using the phone as an MP3 player to ringing tones. Lets take the music player option - nowadays a staple with very modest priced dumbphones already. And I think a typical user would find 4 times per day to listen to music. When listening, sometimes we hit a song we don't like or don't feel like listening to (or finishing) so we skip. I'd say we skip 3 times per day. Like a voice call, we have to turn off the music player when we're done, thats another 4 times we look at the phone. And I'd say on average we get interrupted once per day to pause the song that is playing - such as for an incoming call or message - and then resume the music. That gives me 13 times looking at the phone for music consumption.

GAMING 12 TIMES

For gaming, I'm now thinking basic time-killer games like Snake or Tetris, not Angry Birds. Launch the game 3 times, end the game 3 times. Interrupted twice, resumed twice, and looking at scores or settings 2 times per day. 12 times of use of the phone for gaming purposes.

CALENDAR 5 TIMES

I think a calendar might be used 5 times per day, once to make a new entry per day, 3 times to see whats up next, and once to edit or delete an entry.

SOCIAL MEDIA 9 TIMES

Accessing Facebook, Twitter of the like perhaps 5 times per day. As the usage tends to be longer, there is plenty of opportunities to be interrupted, so I'd say 2 interruptions and resumptions per day. Remember, we are talking of typical users, not heavily addicted youth, so the usage is not intense, also these users are not on 'all you can eat data plans' so their social media surfing is somewhat limited by the costs involved.

NEWS 6 TIMES

Nearly half of all mobile phone owners already consume news on their phones. It would mostly be on two primary types, the type where you go find the news ie access your fave news site(s) like the BBC or CNN or for pop music celebrity news, MTV etc.. And then there are the alerts you may subscribe to. I'd say 4 news alerts arrive per day and we actively go to news sites twice per day, for a typical user.

SEARCH 3 TIMES

And yes, increasingly we use search on our phones. But the search behavior is markedly different from PC based online access to Google and our other search engines. Mobile search is often urgent and very specific. But it often becomes the most valued app and service on the phone. A third of people in New Zealand have for example used mobile search to settle a bet or argument. Like I say, the mobile has become the Magical Truth Machine in our pocket. But lets say the typical user only searches 3 times per day on the mobile (remember, several hundred million internet users on mobile don't even own or have access to any PC based internet device, their dumbphone and its web browser and clumsy keyboard interface is the only internet they have access to - and at per-use data charging too!)

WEB 3 TIMES

And random internet services. Going to the website of the bank, or the travel agent, or the ecommerce site, or whatever. Again, I'd think this number is easily much bigger, but lets keep it at 3. Remember, these are NOT touch screen iPhon-a-clones, these are rudimentary basic phones, featurephones at best.

VIDEO 6 TIMES

Mobile videos are easily addictive and many carriers offer special video tariffs on their 3G data plans etc. We often receive links to videos, and videos can be sent and received via MMS. I'd say we watch 4 video clips per day, interrupted once, and resumed once. That gives us 6 uses relating to video. This also includes saved videos on our phones, something we shot on our own cameras, something that was forwarded to us, or perhaps moved via a microSD card or Bluetooth. And isn't it funny, we will look at that tired short video clip many many times when we have nothing else to do...

CHARGING PHONE 3 TIMES

And then the charging of the phone. We connect the phone, we come to see if its charged yet (not yet) and we remove the charger when the battery is full or we can't afford to wait longer. Three times we looked at the phone relating to its recharging, on a typical day.

VOICE MAIL 1 TIME

And we access our voice mails perhaps once per day. Remember, when one of our calls is redirected to voice mail, we are indeed using someone else's voicemail but it doesn't require us to do anything at our end, its just that the voice call was kind of hijacked by the voicemail system. But when we have to go listen to our voicemails, then yes, we have to make the extra effort. 

If my math is correct, we are at 140 times per day. Then lets toss in random other uses about 10 times per day, including maps, downloading apps, voting for TV shows, using the torch/light feature (or turning the screen on in the dark for same effect), showing the phone such as placing it on a table, doing the SIM-card-switch, sending or receiving Bluetooth files, installing or removing microSD cards, replacing the battery, receving a mobile ad, making a m-payment like parking, bus ticket, lottery, or looking for a WiFi connection, double-checking battery status, etc etc etc etc etc.

That gives a totally plausible 150 times per day for a non-smartphone user who is not a massively over-addicted youth user either.

So what do you think? Did I miss obvious areas that have large usage globally across all ages and demographics - remember, we cannot focus on smartphones, only one in five mobile handsets in use today is a smartphone (but are now selling more than half of new handset sales in many countries, so this will change rapidly).

All analysis here not explicitly identified by source is source: TomiAhonen Consulting January 2013. The data and examples and calculations in this blog may be freely shared and also may be freely turned into any graphics. 

And for those who need to understand the mobile market more deeply, check out the TomiAhonen Almanac 2012 - buy it now, get the 2013 edition when it is released in a few weeks, for no extra charge!

Comments

[foo]

"So what do you think? Did I miss obvious areas that have large usage globally across all ages and demographics - remember, we cannot focus on smartphones, only one in five mobile handsets in use today is a smartphone (but are now selling more than half of new handset sales in many countries, so this will change rapidly)."

Maybe I'm an exception, but I don't look at my smartphone more than 10 or 20 times per day.

In fact, I only use my phone during my commute between home and work.

I use my phone for 30 minutes in the morning and 30 minutes in the evening, checking Flipboard. (Great app, by the way!)

But I wouldn't count that as several views -- I would count it as two long views, or tens of page views. (Considering 1 minute per article, maximum of 60 articles per day.)

Other than that, I don't use my phone, since I'm always in front of my computer, where I can message anyone much more conveniently.

I would say that this is a very common usage pattern, at least for people who work in front of a computer.

Perhaps that's only a small fraction of the world population, though.

[tz]

It depends. Monetization often destroys the platform (kills the goose that lays the golden egg). I ended up turning Google ads back on because they were relevant, things I wanted or were interested in.

I really, really don't want an ad for a female contraceptive (or maybe worse, a hygiene product) when I plug my device in to recharge.

It doesn't matter if I look at my phone 10 or 1000 times per day. If I have something that I may want or at least am curious about, not only do I don't mind, I welcome it. If it is something irrelevant or odious, I resent it.

[Jeroen]

Hey Tomi,

Gee, I didn't even know my phone was capable of all that! Seriously, even though my phone is capable of all what you wrote, I certainly don't use all these features.

You say typical user. This discounts all the average from smartphone as statistically irrelevant?

Problem here is what's typical exactly? That's market/usability research, results vary so much among different users. How accurate do you want to be?

Take clock for example. For clock some people use a watch, others their phone. Who knows the numbers? I still generally use my watch; gorgeous + habit…

Some people use an old fashioned agenda, others use phone (but the one in dumbphones is rather archaic isn't it?). What is the percentage here?

One you may have missed and this works right when you wake up over WiFi is weather (this data can be cached). Tho you could look outside as well, its also about future. You can have location based, or see how the weather is at the place you commute. If it is part of your morning ritual you may as well combine it with say the "look" on incoming messages.

As a smartphone user, I check my battery more often than on my last dumbphone which stayed alive for various days.

Some of your options, like web, I don't see people on a dumbphone (without data plan generally?) do. If they're on WiFi, might as well do on a PC at work or home instead. Unless they don't have such.

One other thing I don't see mentioned is NFC. Sharing contact, and also payment. I have no clue how popular there are on dumbphone, how popular is it in Japan? I also don't see GPS and FM usage in your list. GPS is a bit silly, generally smartphone. If you name clock tho, then dismissing FM as "uses 3rd party radio" I find silly. However since you include music player, why not FM? Although FM gives music and news so in that sense its in your list (with news I think about RSS, but news via FM would fall under it). Calculator is another small yet nifty feature. And a note block (even with T9). Tho my guess would be most people prefer either a real note block, or maybe a smartphone with hardware keyboard, if you don't have this with you…

I suppose translate requires a plan and is more smartphone thing, but so dumbphones contain dictionaries? Offline encyclopedia such as Wikipedia? Bible and what religions have you not? Does require some storage though.

Finally, a popular one with online gaming (even on dumb phones) is 2-step/2-factor authentication. Its quite popular in a game from Blizzard and this was available for S40 too.

With every single above example of mine there's a big problem: no numbers to back it back.

Either way, IMO instead of looking at specialized devices people still use (like watch, stand alone camera, navigation system) lets look at the general "gadget use", and if average phone can do this too: count it. Because more and more will even dumbphones be used as an all-in-one swiss army knife and it doesn't matter in such statistic if they insist on using a physical watch. The reason they don't switch AFAICT is either specialised quality (camera) or because they always did it that way (cannot adapt to new situation.

Of my list most are niche I think (but you know that probably much better). The only one I feel strongly about is _calculator_ (if you include clock, why not calculator). A mobile phone saves a lot of space there due to an average Casio being as big (but not thick) or bigger as a phone. I use my phone's calculator on a daily basis.

[Kevin]

How about books? The experience is definitely much better on a smartphone, but it's not only for smartphone users. I was reading on my old Nokia 2610, and "cellphone novels" delivered over SMS/MMS were popular in China and Japan well before the smartphone era (perhaps these should count under SMS, but your description for that section doesn't mention them).

[ejvictor]

Like most things in life Pareto rules. Watching two teenage girls over several hours during a family dinner (not in THAT way!)I can attest they both got over 100 texts each in a 3 hour period. So instead of spreading our views across alll functions I think we "chunk" our viewing into cycles.

The typical question needs to be split into age and the "life stages around that age - teenagers, 20 somethings that are dating, "old married couples", and the smartphone maturity cycle. The smartphone maturity cycle is probably an upside down bell curve,first phone lot's of use- it's cool! second, third phone less use, until convergence the "N" device and integration into life. More functions moved to the device, watch, weather, music, e-mail,gps....

I also see some user interfaces as creating more "views". Take for instance the N9, unified messaging/notification screen drives more views. I think the less you have to dive down into an app and swim back up to use a function the more you use a device - the essence of the Jolla/Sailfish evolution.

[Started with Vic20 and Commodore64]

You forgot one crucial driver for the growth of the data and ICT development and it is the adult entertainment.
The adult entertainment in the web has been driver for color displays, faster internet connections etc.

Do you know any male in the western countries that haven't been watching porno in the internet? In the early days people were using VHS or DVD, then ISDN and xDSL connections with their desktop PC's, Wifi and laptops, tablets, and wireleless connections with their mobile phones. Nowadays most mobile phones and display free adult enterntainment content and 3G network is sufficient for some extent due to modern video packaging methods. 4G or Wifi is currently luxury but will be mainstream in coming years.

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[Pete Austin]

Actually the average mobile phone user checks their phone 25 times a day (data from Deloitte)
https://www.freshrelevance.com/blog/how-often-do-people-really-check-their-mobile-phones