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« First Look into Final 2012 full year market shares for smartphones and OS wars, the Top 3 are settled on both | Main | On The Twelfth Day of Christmas My Elop Gave To Me.. The Classic Christmas Carol Updated for Nokia »

December 24, 2012

Comments

Winter

@Derek
"WP is improving fast now but you choose to ignore it."

Yeah yeah, we heard that one before. Several times already.

Tester

Numbers by themselves do not mean anything.

Far more important is an analysis how these numbers came to be.
And for Windows Phone one huge factor is still missing from the picture - in fact it's the most important factor of all:

What's the distribution of WP7/WP8 between these sales? If it's mostly WP7, the platform is doomed because all the sales are from clearing old stock at low prices. If it's mostly WP8, it may still have a chance. Right now my bet is on the former but we just don't know. Anyway, picking up the pieces from the losers is not 'gaining traction' yet. For that we needs to see a different kind of growth.

The only people ignoring this are the WP fans, where it is a very important factor for the platform because both systems are mostly incompatible.

RottenApple

@Derek:

What's in here for you, if I may ask?

Does a world outside Windows Phone even exist for you? Sorry, but for me you look like a paid company plant to spread misinformation by cherry-picking favorable numbers.

Even with recent gains, WP performance in the market is utterly pathetic.
Yes, it gained a bit. No, it's not a turnaround. WP isn't taking any market share away from the big 2 and the real competitors will only enter the market later this year. Until then it may be the system of choice of the eternally unhappy who have to have the outsider's product.

Let's be blunt: The only reason WP even sells is some die-hard Nokia fans upgrading their old phones. Boy, are they in for an unpleasant surprise... :P

Tester

>> The two currently big didn't gain their marketshares so quickly either.

That may be true but there's one major difference between the rise of iOS and Android compared to WP now.

Back then both systems had to fight against antiquated platforms that were destined to become obsolete by default. It took some time to create awareness which resulted in a slow start but the result was inevitable. The market was hungry for something better.

The situation is different now.
The recently announced Android phones are going to run circles around everything else in the market and even leaving those out, the 3 platforms are mostly on par when it comes to technical features.

None has any significant technological advantages over the others so unlike with the rise of iOS/Android which had no serious competition WP now has to face two behemoths which already control 90% of the market. None of them is going away any time soon - quite unlike the aging Symbian and Blackberry platforms from the past.


Simon

What do you think about the latest Kantar numbers?
http://allaboutwindowsphone.com/news/item/17651_Kantar_data_shows_continued_Eu.php

Windows Phone again gaining share. Also in US.

Tester

Let's just answer your question with a direct quote from the linked article:

>> This is because, within a given market, sales volumes of mobile phones are volatile, subject to peaks and troughs in response to handset launches, promotional activity, and price changes. For example, the UK market has benefited from relatively heavy promotion of the Nokia Lumia 620 in March and April.

Comparing with 12 months ago is relatively meaningless because at that point WP wasn't doing much at all. It's almost impossible to tell how much of these sales comes from cost intensive promotions and how much is natural sales with a higher profit margin.

At the end of the day the only thing that matters is whether it's enough for Nokia to survive (because if Nokia fails, WP is dead.) If they pump volume into the market below cost all the increases won't mean much - and the final answer on this particular point is still open.

Speaking as a developer, my employer's position still is to wait and see. If a WP version can be done for cheap, yes it'll be done. If it's not, though, we skip it and move on to the next Android/iOS project. WP is still not commercially viable for us.


RottenApple

Hope dies last, it seems.

The problem with the article is that it only lists the WP numbers and not the entire picture. If you look at it all together things do not look that great.

In most markets where WP experienced 'strong growth' the growth of Android was significantly stronger. WP is essentially just converting the remains of Symbian (as in converting old Nokia customers to their new hardware)

Whether this kind of growth can be sustained once Symbian is gone remains to be seen.

Yes, WP is third, but no, that doesn't make it a success - it's still first among the losers, nothing more.

The most worrying thing buried in all that data is where the focus of WP sales is - and it's not at the high end but at the low price range. Yes, that's also true for Android but Android can counter this with a market share that's 10x as high as WP.

What this particular tidbit boils down to is, that even if WP grows, there's very little economic motivation to support this platform as strongly as iOS and Android - limiting its appeal to the resistant fanboy base and uninformed former Nokia customers which just buy now what they bought before.

Anyone interested in a strong app ecosystem will have to look elsewhere.

As for this particular gem:
"with Windows Phone now in a position where it is possible to see future growth, resulting in a market share nearer the level of iOS (16.6% in Italy, 26.8% in the UK"

Yes, sure, one can dream. This reminds me of the ridiculous claims IDC made 2 years ago. I tell you a little secret: This won't happen! For this WP had to actively steal customers from iOS and Android and those would be stupid to switch!

Concerning the lowest price segment. WP won't stand a chance there. Android can go much cheaper and once Firefox OS gets released there will be a true low end platform attracting the customers who don't want to pay for a real smartphone while still getting most of the features. This segment, however, is where most of the future growth will lie, i.e current feature phone users replacing their hardware.

Simon

Latest Kantar numbers, WP gaining again also in US:

"Through the 3 month period ending May 2013, Android continues to lead smartphone sales at 52%. Close behind is iOS with 41.9% of sales. Windows remains in third with 4.6% of sales, up 0.9% versus the same period last year"

http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/global/News/news-articles/Apple-closer-to-Android-in-the-US-as-Carrier-Distribution-Grows

AndThisWillBeToo

@Simon
Windows had 5,6% in states in the previous measurement you linked here. So even though YoY numbers suggest otherwise, WP market share is down, not up.
Only even slightly positive news there is that WP has kept third position over BlackBerry.

Simon

What is the volume of sold Nokia WP -phones per quarter when you admit that WP/Nokia Smartphones are doing ok? 5M, 7M, 10M, 15M or more? All the time you say that "no it doesn't mean anything" if someone posts promising info here. They are gaining market share almost everywhere as Kantar numbers show for example. And gaining much faster than smartphone market.

http://www.neowin.net/news/microsoft-windows-phone-sales-are-6x-faster-than-overall-smartphone-market

Nokia will sell more than 10M WP phones per quarter in this year.

AndThisWillBeToo

@Simon
Tomi has been demanding that Elop promised "1 to 1 transition from Symbian to WP", i.e. at least 28.3M Lumias sold every quarter to replace Symbian (all time high) sales of 28.3M in Q4 2010.
Impossible number as it was all time high, seasonal Q4 sales and (unlike Tomi says) going to drop on Q1 if not otherwise then due to seasonal drop of global smartphone sales in Q1 2011.
And unlike Tomi says there never was a promise to do such, quite contrary the 20-F form says that already in Feb 2011 Nokia said they _won't_ be able to transfer their Symbian user base to Windows phone and that the _will_ see decline of sales in transition.

But apparently he will be happy with that. 28,3M/Q. Or then there's this:
https://twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/293861623431585793
he will probably stop demanding Elop to be fired before that. ;)

AndThisWillBeToo

@Simon
agreed. And it is a frustration beyond all belief to write here. If you don't give base for your arguments you're stupid troll. If you give base, your argument will likely be deleted. And nobody wants to use hour to dig up references and calculate numbers just to see their work gone in less than a second.

How was it? "Arguing on the internet is like running at the special olympics. Even if you win, you're still retarded."

jj

In some phase Nokia MAY sell WP phones OK amount and be profitable, but facts remains forever. "Windows only" strategy was a clear mistake and transition period was poorly executed. I doubt Nokia will be number one ever again.

Simon

@ jj

This phase is very soon. If not this quarter (Q3/2013) then then next one (Q4/2013). Also the majority of analysts agree with that. Remember this, from Nokia Corporation Q1 2013 Interim Report, Elop said:
"At the highest level, we are pleased that Nokia Group achieved underlying operating profitability for the third quarter in a row. While operating in a highly competitive environment, Nokia is executing our strategy with urgency and managing our costs very well."

Devices & Services Q1 Result (EUR million):
"Operating profit (non-IFRS) 4"

http://press.nokia.com/2013/04/18/nokia-corporation-q1-2013-interim-report/

So already IT WAS profitable non-IFRS Q1 2013. Whole company 181M and Devices & Services 4M. Thats not much, but still profitable already.

Now the profits only will get bigger and bigger. Remember, that Nokia has been streamlining it's really heavy organization for past 2 year, so it will have nice profits even though it couldn't ever again sell more than 20M smartphones per quarter.


It's hard to establish a third platform basically from zero. Apple and Google also went through that period. Remember that it took 10 quarters for Apple to sell more that 10M per quarter. Lumias are only gone through 6 full quarters and 7th is going on right now. Lumias will sell over 10M sooner than iPhone did. In it's 7th or 8th quarter. Thats quite ok.

Of course Nokia considered using Android. But they saw that there was a very high risk that Android is dominated by one manufacturer (Samsung). Others are not doing so well. Nokia want's more than those "second line" Android manufacturers. I bet Nokia got better deal with MS when they went only with them. You can see already that Nokia gets special treatment from MS, unless they couldn't have utilised that 41Mpix camera cell for example.

Tester

@Simon:

>> This phase is very soon. If not this quarter (Q3/2013) then then next one (Q4/2013).

We've been hearing this for how long now? And so far nothing has changed. Nokia is still limping along without any significant change in sight.

About 'being profitable', yes, after accounting tricks that was true. Of course these accounting tricks are done to fool people like you.

Simon

@ Tester

Lumia sales have now passed BB as you will see in this weeks Q2 interim report. I've said all the time, that it will take some time, but Lumias will sell more than 10M per quarter sooner than iPhone did for example. And it really seems to go like that.

Even ignorant fools like you will see how Nokia HAS ALREADY NOW made the turnaround and WP Lumias are now gaining faster and faster.

Everything has changed, but you are too stupid to see it. Lumia sales are going up fast. People like Lumias and WP. Nokia is limping along without any significant change in sight? Haha :D Even analysts see it now, that Nokia is turning profitable again.

Winter

@Simon
"Everything has changed, but you are too stupid to see it."

Another factor is that we hear about this change in the next quarter since Nokia adopted WP7.

You tend to get a little skeptical after a few years of change lurking around the corner.

Tester

@Simon:

Yeah, right. Nokia is gaining momentum. According to your type it has been 'gaining momentum' continuously for the last two years - and after all that time they have nothing to show and are still hovering around 3%. And it's always 'in the next quarter when you see them finally taking off'. Sorry, the joke has run dry after all this time. Windows Phone is a dud - it has been out for enough time that - would it be a success - it'd have something to show by now.

Concerning Blackberry, big deal to pass a company which just now has only started to release up to date hardware. That's a true victory to pass a genuine loser!

Simon

@ Tester

I think you will see 7-8M sold Lumias in Q2 Interim Report which is in Thursday. And Nokia will give guidance to sell even more Lumias in this current quarter (Q3). So, it's happened now, the waiting is over. Now Nokia Smart Devices is also profitable again, as you will see. By a bigger marking than in Q1. As are NSN (which Nokia owns 100% now), Navteq/Here, Mobile Phones. Also patents are making nice profit.

Just see how the sales of Lumias have gone up; faster than iPhone did. That quite ok, even though the market is bigger. If you don't admit that Nokia/WP smartphones are gaining momentum, please explain what that is? Sales are going up and they are closing 10M per quarter? So they are gaining momentum.

@ Winter

Nokia said that the transition period from Symbian to WP is about 2 years. Now the Lumias have been in the market only 6 full quarters, not full 2 years (and not "few years" like you said). So they will have time until the end of this year. I think they might see sales of about 15M per Q4/2013 quarter (Christmas sales); thats quite ok transition from Symbian in 2 years. Will you admit that it's a succesful transition, if they will sale close to 15M Lumias in Q4?

Simon

@ Tester & Winter

What did I say? 7,4M sold Lumias in Q2. 303M profit (non-IFRS). NSN was very strong again. Nokia forecasts, that they will sell more Lumias in Q3.

Nokia is on the right path!

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