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« First Look into Final 2012 full year market shares for smartphones and OS wars, the Top 3 are settled on both | Main | On The Twelfth Day of Christmas My Elop Gave To Me.. The Classic Christmas Carol Updated for Nokia »

December 24, 2012

Comments

cycnus

@P.Boogie

/sarcasm
I'm certainly not rocket scientist.
But I like the "cheap copies"/"application launch pads" better than the most advance mobile OS.
Like I said, I'm not qualified for the most advance mobile OS since the FLAT LIVE TILES makes me feel bored and fall asleep.

N9

If Microsoft new OS's are sooooo great, how come no one is buying them?

winter

@P.Bokkelman
Around 40M Android phones are activated each month. Probably mor by now.

Less than 4M WP phones sre available each quarter. Not sold, but on sale. There is no ecosystem yet as there is no WP8 installed base. Not enough WP phones are produced to even outsell Bada.

Lumia 920 would have been the most advanced phone of 2010 or 2011 ( barely I think). But it is at the bottom in 2013.

cycnus

@N9

Because only P.Boogie, Balmer, Elop, Steve Belfiore that were the rocket scientist who UNDERSTAND the greatness of WP.

The problem is, billions of other people + you and me that were a mere mortal think android is better.

newbie reader

// http://regmedia.co.uk/2012/12/21/all_market_shares.jpg

This is an exellent piece of stat, for this US Apple 50% discussion above.

What it shows?

Country ;; iOS share 12w/e 27Nov11 ;; iOS share 12w/e 25nov12

US 35% 53%
EU5 22% 25%
GB 30% 36%
Germ 21% 22%
Fran 19% 24%
Italy 21% 20%
Spain 6% 4%
Austral 41% 35%
Brazil 3% 1%

Country ;; %of marketshare of iPhone5 release peak

US 17%
GB 5%
France 4%
EU5 2%
Germ 0%
Italy 0%
Spain -2%
Brazil -1%
Austral -5%

So, we see that ***this iPhone5 release peak is pretty much limited to US.***

It is somewhat extended to UK and France, but it is already zero in Germany and Italy, and even negative in Spain, resulting in 2.5% total average in EU5.

Given this country tendency, it is easy to see it to be even less, /most probably even negative/ in EU total.

And from what we see in the rest of the world, Brazil and Australia, even fresh release of iPhone5 cannot keep Apple marketshare from falling there.

If it zero in Germany, and is even negative in Spain/Brazil/Australia, it could easily be, that world total iOS marketshare is in fact falling, despite of iPhone5 release.

China number is important here, whether spain-brazil-australia tendency extend itself to china, that's the question, but this stat is unfortunately not availiable.

Tester

@newbie reader:

Don't forget another important thing here:

The 53% is not market share, it's share of sales. That means it includes all replacements.

Especially with Apple you need to factor in all those who replace their old iPhone - and I guess this year this was even higher than usual because many might have skipped the iPhone 4GS and kept their iPhone 4 for one more year.

Why this spike is only this visible in the US? Maybe it has something to do with specific promotions, special deals that made people jump the gun and upgrade immediately from their old iPhone whereas in other countries this is stretched out over a longer period of time. If that's true we'll see with the upcoming quarter's numbers.

newbie reader

Also, US is the only country, where /iPhone5 release peak/ of iOS is coupled with percentage decline of Android.

Let's group countries by this property,

country ;; android growth ;; iOS growth/=iPhone5 release peak/

iOS up, Android down:
US, -10%, +17%

iOS growth is about equal to Android growth:
GB: +4.9%, +5.3%

Android growth is bigger than iOS growth:
France, +9%, +4%

Android up, iOS flat:
Germany, +7%, +0.3%

Android up, iOS down:
Italy, +10%, -0.6%
Spain, +25%, -2.5%
Brazil, +31%, -1.6%
Australia, +11%, -5.4%

We see, that the ***most of the world is moving in opposite direction to US, even on "release peak" sales of iPhone5***

Tomi T Ahonen

To P. Bokkelman

I removed all your comments as your tone was pure Microsoft troll. If you feel you truly want to engage with readers of this blog - please note, that first, your comment MUST be relevant to the blog at hand. So you must discuss under this blog - the sales numbers suggested by Kantar, not your own personal views of why you think Windows Phone or Lumia is somehow better than other smartphones. That was not the topic of this blog (we've covered that months and years ago on dozens of earlier blog articles).

I also don't allow personal attacks and no comments that would require me to respond by saying 'if you read the blog article'. You may fully disagree with me - our our readers - but you must illustrate in your comment that you did read and consider the original comment. You can't just come here to astroturf and throw pointless links and ridiculous claims. Talk about the numbers here as suggested by Kantar, and if you have anything to support those - or counter those - that you think truly are relevant, and as long as you indicate that you have read the Kantar numbers too and make reference to those, then yes, your comment will be allowed to remain.

Finally, if you want to make any commentary of what I've said personally in the past, you better make 100% sure you quote me in context and accurately. For example that comment that Nokia will be sold within weeks is something I said last summer - and I have SINCE pointed out on this blog that I had been wrong. If I post about it here and take honest personal credit for being WRONG, you have NO right to come here to make such claims - unless you want to thank me for admitting where I was wrong - and in that case, you can only do that on the blog article where I did that, not on this blog article which dicusses the Kantar numbers.

We have had over 3 million visits to this blog and over 29,000 comments posted on this blog. I have a regular readership. They find big value in intelligent discussion on this blog. I won't tolerate trolling and astroturfing. But if you feel you really wanted to contribute, please repost again, but follow VERY carefully my instructions.

To our other readers, thanks, sorry for the delay in removing the trolling comments, but obviously it was Christmas break haha..

Pls keep the discussion going

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Correction

There is no HTC 8C. Maybe HTC 8S.

vladkr

@Cygnus
"Because only P.Boogie, Balmer, Elop, Steve Belfiore that were the rocket scientist who UNDERSTAND the greatness of WP.

The problem is, billions of other people + you and me that were a mere mortal think android is better."

In the Middle Ages, people used to think that the Earth was in the middle of the Universe; Galileo Galilei finished his life imprisoned as he tried to prove the opposite.

Maybe we should jail Elop and Ballmer and let them die there to prove WP is indeed a competitive ecosystem.

Oh... wait a minute; did I just compare Dumb and Dumber to Galileo Galilei? Damn, I'm sorry for such an insult... but you can keep the other last part of the comment.

B a r o n 95

@Newbie_Reader - Hey Genius, the iPhone 5 was only released in Brazil on December 14 - how the heck did you measure the iPhone 5 peak there?

You also have to understand that the iPhone 5 to iPhone 4S interval is shorter is much shorter in almost every country outside the US, because Apple released the iPhone 5 in more countries than ever from the get go (including Hong-Kong China on day one), and had more countries on-line faster.

Also, some countries, like Brazil and Australia are "noise" countries in terms of volume. US, Canada, UK, Japan, Germany and Greater China together account for over 80% of iPhone shipments.

And even if the peak was a US-only phenomenon, so what? Apple has NEVER gone above 50% share, in any previous peak.

This is a momentous statistic. Peak or no peak. The FACT, as reported by Kantar ( that Tomi seems to love and believe) IS that Apple sold more smartphones in the 12 week period than ALL the other manufactures combined in the largest (by value) smartphone market in the world.

You can try to explain that way as much as you want. But that is HUGE. Particularly since the US smartphone market is mostly a replacement market now. The overwhelming majority of iPhone 5 users were already smartphone users. So they were replacing another iPhone (60%), or migrating from another smartphone (80% of the remaining 40%).

There is no denying that Android users are switching to iPhone in very large numbers in the US.

And that was against the fresh Galaxy S3, and the heavily promoted Galaxy Note and all the Moto, HTC, etc Q4 introductions.

And what did Tomi do instead? He tried to spin it into a commentary of Windows Phone and Nokia which are no longer important market drivers. They are a rounding error on Apple's sales of the (free on contract) iPhone 4.

newbie reader

@tester
// Especially with Apple you need to factor in all those who replace their old iPhone

Yep, and BTW, there is probably ***no real Android sales decline in US,*** at least I have not seen such numbers.

US Android percentage decline number is just a math byproduct of "Apple iPhone5 sales spike"

Here is a model example.

1. Suppose that of every 100 phones sold, 35 are iPhones and 52 are Androids.

2. Then, all of a sudden, iSheeps spring up, go replace their old iPhonies, or for some other reason, and they buy twice the usual amount of the iPhonies, that is, 70 iPhonies.

3. Android user do not spike like this, neither they decline, but, say, they gained, as usual, from steady number of converts from other platform, say 5% marketshare, 5 more phones out of 100. That is, there are 52+5=57 Android phones sold.

3. Then iPhone share would peak from 35% to 70/135= 52%
however Android share, due to this spike, would fall from 52% to 57/135= 42%

That is, ***iSheeps-generated sales spike also inevitably produce some drop in Android percentage number***, not necessary at expense of steady Android growth, but exactly because Android users rise steadily, do not spike, and are unaware of this sudden iSheeps wave.

As we see in my model example /where I in fact used actual US marketshare numbers/, this 10% "iPhone5 spike" drop in Android share means only that Android buyers are steady people, who do not spike, like iSheeps, but grow their numbers in slow, steady and orderly manner.

And numbers show that ***10% drop, in fact, has enough space for Android usual growth*** /of about 5% quarter-to-quarter marketshare in my example/

And when market would be cleared from that iSheeps wave, this growth will show itself up.

To continue my example, suppose next time Android steadily got 5 more converts, and sells now 62 phones, however iSheeps swallowed their new iToy, and dropped from 70 back to 35, to their base marketshare.

Then, Android would rise from 57/135= 42% to 62/100= 62%, a whopping 20% rise! It's not Android sudden growth, no, it just iSheeps down-wave effect.

We see, that although iPhone5 ***up-part of the wave downed Android percentage***, the unevitable iPhone5 ***down-part of the wave would do exactly the opposite***, helping Android number back up, restoring all the numbers that it delusionaly took away.

It is reasonable to look at unit sales numbers /when they are availiable/ as Tomi does in his careful Elop/Nokia analysis, to be free from these false "spike effect" percentage impressions.

vladkr

Baron:

In your statistics, "Windows" includes WM6, WP7 and WP8, which are not compatible/don't interact with each other... so it's hard to call that an ecosystem. So it's useless.

Tester

@Baron95

That's truly ingenious. You accuse Tomi of using selective data and then take the one anomaly in the entire data comletely out of context and present it as big news?

Hello???
I still don't know what to think of this Apple number in the US - because with other data to back it up it doesn't mean ANYTHING!!!

For all we know Android merely hit a slump because no new devices were around.
The one thing that is certain is that Apple's number is highly inflated by all those replacing their iPhone 4 and 4S with iPhone 5's.

There's no info how this affects overall market share.
So before bringing out the champagne I'd rather wait for other information to properly place these numbers. It's just too anomalous from recent trends to derive anything further from it that Apple sold more devices in a quarter where it released a new product and Android did not.

As for Windows being the third ecosystem, yeah, well. No, sorry, fail again.

To be an ecosystem it needs to perform better. Right now it's merely the best selling platform of the non-ecosystems, and the only reason it's even that is that all the other platforms are obsolete and dying out.

I think it's pathetic that a supposedly thriving platform has to compete with zombies like Symbian, BB-OS and bada. Of course it wins that 'battle' by default - the opponents have nothing left to fight with!

So much for 'selective data picking'...

Tester

@newbie_reader:

Yes, precisely how I see it.
Unfortunately news don't work like that. They take the anomaly and present it as a significant trend.

And some idiots may jump for it and push the price of Apple shares up again into dreamland territory just to be shocked when they go down again later because obviously all predictions based on not treating the spike as an anomaly will not come true.

Tester

More bad news for Microsoft:

http://news.yahoo.com/microsoft-surface-trampled-bottom-tablet-pile-christmas-150544506.html

Haven't we heard this before?

>> While speaking with sales reps at the stores, Apple’s (AAPL) iPad was the most highly recommended tablet while Amazon’s (AMZN) Kindle Fire line and Samsung’s (005930) Galaxy Tab line were both recommended as alternatives. Microsoft’s Surface tablet, on the other hand, was not pushed by reps at either chain.

B a r o n 95

@Tester - Every time an iPhone model launches there is an anomaly (according to you). This time is the FIRST and ONLY time the anomaly swallowed over 50% of the market and made Apple sell more than all other combined.

Even if you believe it is an iPhone launch anomaly, it is still incredible. And newsworthy, and the first thing reported by ALL analysts that covered the Kantar report.

I do not believe it is an anomaly. To me it is the culmination of a trend. In markets where iPhone is widely available (most of the top carriers) and not severely volume constrained, Apple takes 4 out of 5 high income subscribers and a ton of share from high-end Android.

@Newbie_reader - where do you factor into your numbers all the users that tried to buy an iPhone and couldn't?

Where to you factor the KNOW fact (based on multiple surveys) that 40% of iPhone buyers in Q4 are coming from other platforms. Symbian, RIM and Windows combined are only 5% of smartphone market share - all the rest is Android and iOS. Combine that with the fact that 2/3 of smartphone purchases in the US are replacement, and you can't escape the fact that, that millions of Android users are switching to iPhone. I personally know several who did just that. Galaxy, HTC and Moto to iPhone 5.

The next big event for Apple is not an iPhone launch. It is when China Mobile, Docomo, T-mobile USA, and other large operators launch the iPhone and of course, having the backwards Europeans launch LTE which is a huge drive for iPhone sales in the US.

Now the true "spike" was the Android spike in the US, first when only AT&T had the iPhone and all the other operators had to promote Android, then as the iPhone lacked LTE and Verizon (and others) had huge promotions for LTE (which meant promoting Android phones and tablets). That spike is OVER with iPhone 5 (well T-mobile, US Cellular, etc still only promote Android), but the big three, for the first time ever, have Apple and android on the same footing.

results? Apple ran away with the whole pie. Lets see what excuse you will come up with in Q1. And Q2....

happy new year

newbie reader

// we have a good comparison to September Kantar data

can anyone give link to these september data?

Tester

@Baron95:

Ugh...

You really want to tell that a quarter that fully covers the launch of a new iPhone model does not have a spike?

Yeah, right! We all know how Apple cusomers are! They immediately run to their stores and replace their old models - well, maybe not last year, since the iPhone 4S wasn't really that much of an upgrade to the iPhone 4, but if you factor this in as well, you got TWO generations of iPhones being replaced now!

So you not only get the spike, you get 1.5 times the normal spike!

And LOL at the 'backwards Europeans'!
Typical troll argument just to devalue the market that don't follow your 'rules'.

Why is it that people trying to push an agenda always have to resort to broad insults to make any counter argument look less valid?

Tester

@newbie reader:

>> an anyone give link to these september data?

Here you go, directly from the source:

http://www.kantar.com/media/104878/comtech_pr_p9.pdf

To make it short:

iOS 33.6%
Android 59.6%

in the US.

So from Q3 to Q4 we have a very drastic shift. If one does not call that a spike I don't know.

And one thing is clear: The spike is far stronger than last year for the iPhone 4S release. But honestly, that doesn't really surprise me. As I said before, last year looks like many iPhone owners held off replacing their iPhone 4 so this year they got all added to the spike as well.

All in all, this quarter's numbers are really not that informative. As soon as the first full HD Android devices appear, things will most certainly reverse again - and next year with the next iPhone model again.

To me the US market looks like it's mostly saturated already and mainly driven by hardware replacements, not by gaining new customers.

The comments to this entry are closed.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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