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« First Look into Final 2012 full year market shares for smartphones and OS wars, the Top 3 are settled on both | Main | On The Twelfth Day of Christmas My Elop Gave To Me.. The Classic Christmas Carol Updated for Nokia »

December 24, 2012

Comments

Eurofan

@newbie reader: I read somewhere that the screen of the Lumia 920 is an energy hog compared to Apple and Samsung screens.

i agree with Tester that the chief obstacle to people considering purchasing a 920 is the Microsoft Windows Phone operating system. Nokia misjudged antipathy towards Microsoft software when they agreed to become partners. How much longer can Nokia afford to subsidize a loosing smartphone effort built around WP? And how can Nokia afford this rumored new RT slate? Coming out with a slate too early nearly crippled RIMM. Why will Nokia do any better when prices are even lower than they were when RIMM tried it. It seems like a CEO vanity project. Maybe it will get Elop fired by the end of the year.

Eurofan

@P.Bokkelman: Just so you understand, I don't believe at all these reports of the Lumia 920 selling well. We'll see when sales figures come out in Nokia's quarterly report. But I smell a rat in these early reports from spokesmen and unnamed vendors that the Lumia 920 is selling well. I'd be surprised if Nokia sells more than 3 million Lumias in this quarter. Worldwide.

Tester

Just for the record:

Right now the best ranking Windows Phone on amazon.de is the Lumia 900 at #69. It's also the ONLY Windows Phone in the top 100.

That's meaningful information.

Rank 69 means it sells considerably less than 1% of all phones sales on that site. It also means that almost any customer having a choice chooses not to buy a Windows Phone (which I guess has been established countless times before.)

All that crap talk of bribed analysts is worth shit. Nothing reliable can confirm these claims. All real numbers I have seen so far show a minor spike right after release followed by a steep drop into meaninglessness. There has not been one single credible report that shows good sales for Lumia.
Not! One! Single! One!
All 'success stories' I have seen could be quickly proven as bogus.

CN

@Tester

There's no need to bring those Amazon ranking lists in here, over and over again. For two reasons:

1. We already know from the past that they don't tell you a lot. Remember WP7.X's that were well positioned in Amazon US most of the time in Q2 and Q3. And the end result? Weak sales.

2. You have been told before that not having products to deliver, it is only natural that you don't see them ranked high.

If you don't buy this, browse through Tomi's older postings where he also downplays the relevance of Amazon lists.

KenAdams

Nokia Lumia sales reportedly nowhere near as strong as rumors suggest:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/12/12/nokia-lumia-sales-so-far-quite-low-analyst-contends/

Apparently, Nokia cannot even produce more than 600.000 units per month, so I do not see how it can sell millions: zhttp://bgr.com/2012/12/19/nokia-lumia-920-production-analysis-259684/

Just one more of Elop's FUD techniques to raise the stock price and interest in the platform....

sve

I expect we'll see products soon that can make cellphone calls that are not smartphones. Things like tablets, mini-tablets, laptops will all be able to get on a carrier contract and make calls. Folks who today carry both a smartphone and another device will consolidate to a single portable device that can also make phonecalls/SMS. You'll then see the carriers drop or greatly simplify their subsidy offers to consumers for a communications subscription plan, since the variety of devices that they will have to accept will be too great to limit to just a few models. At that point, the smartphone-only companies (Nokia, RIM, HTC) will simply disappear.

bjarneh

P.Bokkelman> Pretty good analysis here:
P.Bokkelman> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1044011-nokia-a-speculative-buy-watch-lumia-and-nsn

on what planet is that a pretty good analysis? is it as good as his January (2012) analysis where he said that Windows Phone 7 would become the next big thing, with its HUGE ecosystem etc.? (there was no ecosystem naturally and we all know how well that went..)

one of the commentators says it best when people call his nonsensical January analysis a "nice article":

FreeRange> No its not a "nice article". It is pretty much total nonsense, delusional at best.

the facts are in, and has been for a long time, not enough people are buying these phones, and Nokia has to jump of the burning platform™ as soon as possible. Nokia is ironically now in the situation Elop described in his memo, they are soon left with zero options if they keep playing the Windows card.

baron007

@bjarneh

Please forgive bro p.brokkelman.

Bro baron95 were cornered by all of you, and it's hard for him to give a good reason why wp8 is cool without denting his previous comment on why android and open source were lame.

Our bos, the baldy Balmer were not satisfied with baron95 post. He did successfully change a couple of poster to believe about his idea, but he failed to insert that in the future apple will be beaten by wp.

So, you will see more astroturfer here. One saying android is doomeeddd, the other will say the success of wp8. And other will write the phrophecy of wp will kill android and iphone

Ahmad bin Bihamad bin Ahmad

Dead P.Bokkelman

My name is Ahmad, I work for Nokia for about 10 years. I will tell you a story about Lumia.

When our Big Bos announced lumia, we're at Nokia Saudi Arabia weren't so sure about it. Because we love Symbian.

When WP7 come out, it a proven disaster. I evangelist WP7 device to friend and family, and all of them were spacing from me. If they met me on the street, they try to avoid me or will look busy and only talk for a little.

My brother, sister, cousin, all hate me because i talk them into it. and after around 3 month of using it, they sold the lumia very cheap to the servant, or any one who were not really into smartphone.

You said that Live Tiles is very advance, at first, I also think the same, after got a birthday present of samsung galaxy S3 (yes, my family were hate my lumia talk a lot, they bought me a Galaxy S3), I found out ... why would live tiles be advance? It just blinking all the time. It's STUPID.

You said... "Have you tried?", I'm gonna say, have you tried Samsung Galaxy S3? WP were so doomeed, all the game/apps count that I brag about to friend and family, were all lie. The apps were so low quality that after I got my Samsung Galaxy S3, my kid were playing with it all the time compared to the lumia I gave them. Because the game in Lumia were so low quality and late compared to android. After 1 month getting the Samsung Galaxy S3, all the kid phone now, were using android, the kid were happy.

How about Asha, asha game were lame.... after I try US$ 100+ sony android, I also realize that Asha will be dead very soon. They only have around 30 average quality game, and no good/entertaining/adicting game at all.

Why WP7/WP8 sell? Because they were tricked. If they use android or iOS before, they would not get any WP7/WP8.

and I'm one of the people who tricked them to buy WP7/WP8 because I'm a nokia employee.

CN

@KenAdams

Why do you listen to rumours and ignore what Nokia says? Why do you call something as "Elop's FUD"? Nokia has never promised any high Q4 volumes.

As Bokkelman says, there seems to be quite a few in here whose "knowledge is low". Are you one of them or do you just intentionally try to twist the facts?

Elop and Ihamuotila clearly stated in Q3 call that new Lumia's will not help Q4. They came late and looks like these can't be delivered in sufficient volumes. And isn't this exactly what we have seen through numerous sources?

togga

@Bokkelman

Please dont spam this forum. There are people here that go here to read valid information. Random sales statistics we can find on google in whatever form or in whatever produced numbers we want (like your at&t link). For real sales statistics and analysis you can read the article above based on Kantar.

Besides,WP is doomed for multiple reasons. Many consumers are fed up with windows on the desktop and wont go nowhere near it. A common opinion (including mine) also is that the OS is boring and live tiles are confusing and inflexible. The new Win8 start screen makes things even worse.

CN

@Tester

In reference to what was mentoned on China Mobile deal of Nokia, you said this:

"Let's talk again in a few months when we know how little effect such a deal has.
Exclusivity does not equal success."

Why do you talk about exclusivity here?

JP

@Bokkelman

I take it that you're a Nokia employee because only a Nokia insider would make the comments you've made here. And those all are exactly the reason Nokia is today in the shape it is. The arrogance of Nokia still exists eventhough it should had gone years ago. Wake up!

Tester

>> People are fed up with Windows on desktop? Then why is it still about 90% that use them? You claims would make more sense if the percentage would be like 20-30%, but it's still about 90%.

Yes. People are fed up with it.
Worse, people are stuck with it because there is no viable non-hardware locked alternative (No, Linux doesn't count!)
Much worse, people scathingly mock Windows 8's new interface.
Normal, average people are seriously pissed off at Microsoft for doing such a stupid change. You won't believe what I already heard from friends, colleagues. There's basically 2 opinions:
1) "Windows 8 is a failed joke and I'll never buy it"
2) "I have tried Windows 8 and (downgraded as soon as I could / would have downgraded if the new computer would run Windows 7)"

And you really expect the same dissatisfied people to happily buy another Microsoft product? One with the same hated interface? Grow up! These people will HAPPILY AVOID buying a Windows Phone.

And please stop spamming your worthless links. Yes, we know them all, yes, we read them all, but unlike you we know how to INTERPRET them to give the numbers some meaning. '90%' is useless unless you provide a context.

QtFan

@P.Bokkelman
The "article" you linked "proving" the 920 "the most innovative" is actually advertising.
The balanced and impartial author is named "Sponsored".
http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2012/10/nokias-lumia-920-the-worlds-most-innovative-smartphone/

Tester

@Bokkelman:

Sorry, wrong on all accounts.

Yes, people are still satisfied with their Windows DESKTOPS, running on Windows 7. They won't be satisifed any longer if the switch to TILES 8 where the desktop looks like an afterthought. People already voiced their opinion about Metro, and quite loudly. Every single person I talked to doesn't like it. That's a record. Really: Not one single person I know likes the new UI.

As for 'Windows will stay', I wonder if you have been following computing trends. Average users are ditching their desktops/laptops en masse to be replaced by tablets and mobile phones. Internet usage statistics are useless because they also catch all the corporate web traffic which is an entirely different story.
The desktop PC as home computer will decline quite drastically over the next few years. With today's powerful mobile devices people just don't need a fully featured desktop PC any longer.
It will only stay prominent where serious work is done. and guess what: These people hate Metro even more than the average user because it's not only an inconvenience but a major obstacle.

One of the main attractions of Windows has been that personnel does not to be retrained for newer versions

Switch to Windows 8 and all that advantage gets tossed out. Average workers have to be retrained. So the threshold to go away from Windows or stick it out as long as possible with the old version is lower than ever before.

As for that lame "People will switch to Windows 8 and appreciate getting the same interface on their phone", that's the most hilarious thing ever. First, people have to actually like the new interface. But people actually hate it on their desktop because it makes things harder for them. So, bottom line, people will happily buy Android instead where they don't have to bother with these stupid tiles that are going to eat their data volume for nothing.

Get happy in your Microsoft bubble, it's going to be a lonely place as time goes on. So far every concerted marketing effort for Windows Phone has completely failed, why do people like you still think it's going to be different the next time? If people liked it they'd buy it. Bur since people don't buy it they apparently don't like it and no advertising is going to change this.

As for Nokia, even if Windows marketshare rises, it will be too late for them. Their current operation is loss making, they have no competetive product that sells, their other divisions are fading so what do you expect? Without a large gift of cash they'll be toast rather sooner than later. But once Nokia goes poof it's game over for Windows Phone. HTC and Samsung will quietly chuckle and continue marketing their well-selling Android devices instead. Witness what they do right now. They keep their foot on the Windows platform, just in case, but their entire actions clearly say that they do not see a good future there.

cycnus

@Tester

"........Yes, people are still satisfied with their Windows DESKTOPS, running on Windows 7. They won't be satisifed any longer if the switch to TILES 8 where the desktop looks like an afterthought. People already voiced their opinion about Metro, and quite loudly. Every single person I talked to doesn't like it. That's a record. Really: Not one single person I know likes the new UI."

To be honest, the TILES in Windows 8 really look like a piece of glass on windows, where the desktop in Windows 7 looks like a board that have lots of sticker (icon).

@P.Bookelman

Sir, if you really think that people will buy WP8 just because their desktop have the same UI, you really an ASTROTURFER / MICROSOFT SPOKE PERSON. It's the message that Elop/Balmer were trying to say.... "resistance is futile, buy WP7/WP8 because you will love it since your desktop will look like it.", and have been re-tweet by the hoard of MS zoombie.

This is the reason that Window 8 penetration IS LOWER THAN WINDOWS VISTA. Just a brief note, WinXP outselling Windows Vista until Windows 7 come out. Because Balmer got 'creative'. He think he's a visionary just like Steve Jobs and forcing his follower to like his taste.

You can lie here, you can use your HOARDING technique to fool us into thinking that Windows 8 / Windows Phone 8 is a big success, but we will see the truth very shortly. January 24th, 2013 is Nokia earning report, and also Apple earning report.

And since you really looks like an MS spoke person to me, there is ONLY ONE REASON that MS use METRO UI (MODERN UI). The reason is because they want something that other (apple, google) can't copy. They want something original (btw, some other company sue MS over Metro UI, apparently Joe Belfiore stole the idea from other company). THAT'S IT. IT'S NOT BECAUSE IT'S BETTER. It just because MS think they can patent it, and brag about it, and if it's success, they have something that other's can't copy.

BTW, congratulation for your DAD that he can use Windows 8, Hurray!!! My dad & also my mom have stop using PC since he only need web browsing, email and some word-processor/spreadsheet. He now use 10" Samsung Galaxy Tab + Bluetooth Keyboard.

cycnus

@P.Booger

Why it's so hard for you to accept that people don't like the Metro UI (Modern UI). It's happened before... ex.
1. WinME is not a success. People opt for Win98SE instead.
2. WinVista is not a success. People opt for WinXP instead.

Why it's very important for you to force us to accept that Metro UI is cool? I think the Android widget is FAR MORE USEFULL than the WP tiles. WP tiles only show number, for example, if I got 2 SMS/email/whatever, it only show '2', whereas in Android there's a widget to let me peek on email/sms/whatever information I want. It's the same like in Symbian widget. Very usefull and powerfull.

Do you know why WP sales have not skyrocket? Because ex-nokia user disagree with your idea. Disagree that Live Tiles is INNOVATIVE. So, why don't you be a man, and admit that your BIG BOS is wrong.

cycnus

@P.Booger

Another example of MS failure...
1. Kin
2. Zune
3. Bob

I really think that Metro UI is the new Bob.
Think about it:
* MS think that user don't like the Windows (3.x) UI, and want something more fun, like HOME SWEET HOME. So, a man best friend named BOB were there to help us to navigate the Windows.
* MS think (not really) that Apple UI and Android UI were the past, and user want something more advance. So, MS create a new UI....

see the resemblance?
METRO UI IS THE NEW BOB

newbie reader

// And WP8 is a great OS

To start with, in tablets there seems to be *two* OSes,
one is real "W8", to run on x86-based tablets (to be announced)
and the other, unfamous "W8 RT", to run on ARM-based Surface.

The latter "great OS" is in fact incompatible with Win ecosystem, that is, it is unable to run x86 software.

However, MS marketing is doing everything to hide this truth.

And what is situation with WP8, phone version, I suspect that so-called "integration" there is about the same, marketing shit and not much else.

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