Kantar November Numbers: Suggest Decline in Windows Phone and.. Increase in Symbian? Nokia is so doomed

A very accurate predictor of the current Quarter smartphone sales trends is a population-weighted average of the most recent Kantar numbers of the current quarter, compared to the previous quarter. We've now seen the pattern for many quarters and Kantar's numbers foretell very accurately what is the global reality on a very short term view, ie now in late December, with November sales data, we have a good view to Q4 (October-December) quarter sales.

Windows Phone 8 was supposed to excite the world and restore Microsoft and Windows to smartphones (yeah, when have we heard that before, and before, and before, and before). Nokia's brand new Lumia 920 and 820 were supposed to be the best Windows Phones ever made and somehow magical in restoring Nokia's past glories from America to China. With the parallel launch of Windows 8 for the PC environment, the Microsoft powered ecosystem was supposed to be on a big comeback. Well, I don't specialize in the PC world but rumors from that side suggest Windows 8 has been far worse in its early adoption than say Windows 7 was. This does not suggest a glamorous Christmas Quarter for Redmond on its main business. Well, at least we have the new Nokia Lumias and the HTCs and Samsungs and others doing the 'magnificent' new Windows Phone 8 smartphones, right? Enter Kantar. 

KANTAR SUGGESTS WINDOWS PHONE SALES ARE DOWN FROM Q3 !!

Kantar always gives us some of its markets it studies, not all. This time from the November 2012 stats they published, we have a good comparison to September Kantar data (both before Windows Phone 8 launched, and data that was reported in Q3). The regions that Kantar reported both in September and November are the European big 5 countries ie EU5 (Germany, France, UK, Italy and Spain), plus the USA, Australia and Brazil. When we take the population-weighted averages of those four regions, and calculate the Windows Phone market share then and now, we get this finding:

Kantar numbers population-weighted average for these 4 regions in Q4 suggested a global average market share for Windows Phone to be 5.3% (don't worry that the reality was only 2%, remember this is not a 'globally representative' sample of Kantar data, this sample strongly over-samples Windows OS's best markets, USA and Europe, and ignores the huge smartphone markets where Windows is negligable, such as China, India and Japan. The point we want, is to compare Kantar last quarter vs Kantar now.

What does Kantar measure for those same four regions now, for November? The weighted average of those same four regions says Windows Phone new sales market share has fallen to 3.8%. Yes, a drop of one third! So what was 1.9% global Windows Phone market share in Q3, these Kantar measurements suggest that after Windows Phone 8 was launched, the global market share for Windows Phone is now crashing to 1.3%. We rounded it to 2% last quarter (was almost 3% in the previous quarter) and Kantar numbers suggest we will round off the Windows Phone market share for Christmas at 1%. That is catastrophic.

Now, remember, the Christmas Quarter, Q4, October to November, does always feature a big jump in smartphone sales. I am modelling a 30% jump from Q3 data. So while the Windows Phone market share is down by a third (according to Kantar measurements) the actual sales are not down by much. If the global smartphone market grew 30% for Christmas, then the total global Windows Phone sales (both platforms, old Windows Phone 7.x and new Windows Phone 8) would be about 2.9 million units.

By The Way.. I did warn you, that the new Lumia 920 and Lumia 820 sales will underperform at Nokia compared to the first Windows Phone launches a year ago. I explained what factors were wrong, mostly in the executive management by Stephen Elop the CEO, who raised prices, not lowered them - raising prices means less sales. Who also limited his carrier relationships, limited distribution means less sales than broad distribution. Etc Etc Etc. I told you so...

ANY OTHER CONTRADICTORY DATA?

But wait, how about China! Yeah, Nokia's Lumia 920T that will launch for China Mobile on the Chinese proprietary 3G standard, TD-SCDMA, will not launch until January. So no help there. What of other Chinese smartphone sales on Windows? Informa has just reported that Windows Phone market share in China is 1%. When Analysys, Gartner and IDC have given China numbers for their latest reports, none mentioned Windows Phone at all, it is that small.

So don't expect miracles out of China. What other news? HTC is so disappointed in Windows Phone 8, it is withdrawing its lowest-price (best-selling) Windows Phone smartphone, the 8C from many markets including the US. And Samsung? Is focusing on its new Tizen devices for next year, don't expect Sammy to waste too much of their marketing efforts on the undesirable Windows platform right now.

Kantar numbers suggest Windows Phone, after Windows Phone 8 has launched, will still sell less than Windows Phone did in Q3? That is very bad news for Microsoft and for Nokia. But now lets look at the shocker.

SYMBIAN SALES GROWING SUGGESTS KANTAR

And this second bit of data must be devastating for Espoo and anyone near Nokia strategy. It is now 9 months from the last new Symbian based smartphones released by Nokia. The model range is obsolescent. The customers are being peddled new Windows Phone based smartphones instead. Yet those old pesky Symbian based Nokia smartphones have many of the features and abilities that Nokia owners want - like great cameras, like real physical QWERTY keyboards, etc. And what does Kantar data suggest? Those 4 Kantar-reported regions, weighted average suggested Symbian sales in Q3 of 7.7% in these four regions. And now? They suggest 7.5% market share for the same four regions. After we factor in the growth in sales for the Christmas quarter, the data suggests Nokia Symbian sales have jumped from 3.3 million to 4.3 million !!!

KANTAR NUMBERS SUGGEST 6.8 MILLION TOTAL NOKIA SMARTPHONE SALES

Like I said, the Kantar numbers are very accurate in short-term forecasting smartphone OS platform performance for the current quarter. And these findings suggest total Nokia smartphone sales of 6.8 million units for Q4 which they also suggest, would split 4.3 million on Symbian (and MeeGo), and 2.5 million on all Lumia, old and new, on Windows Phone. So compared to Q3, when Nokia only sold the 'undesirable' and suddenly 'obsolete' early Lumia smartphones, and now when the new Windows Phone 8 has launched, Nokia Windows based smartphone sales would be down by 13% while the industry grew 30% in the same period (real effective loss in unit sales of 43% in a 3 month period, after the new platform had launched). I call this a disaster.

And the customers? They refuse Windows Phone but they still accept Symbian (and MeeGo). So Symbian/MeeGo sales would be up - based on the Kantar numbers - from 3.4 million in the last quarter to 4.3 million now - an increase in absolute terms of 27% in Symbian sales from 3 months ago, but after we factor in the market growth, its slightly less than the 30% growth of the market, so Symbian would only lose 3% of its share in this past 3 months - with utterly obsolete and uncompetitive phones! (and zero management support of any kind). Incidentially, my recent spot-check of Chinese online sales of handsets found two Lumia devices as Nokia's bestselling smartphones in China. And two Symbian devices - the 808 Pureview and ... the N8 !!! (Why does moron-CEO Stephen Elop not give us a Lumia with 12mp camera, if the N8, at two YEARS of age, still is a top 5 bestselling smartphone in the biggest smartphone market on the planet? Hello?)

And do you really want to cry? Nokia' second best-selling smartphone in mid December online sales in China was.. the N9 running MeeGo. A smartphone that is 15 months old, but still outsells all Lumia smartphones except one and outsells all Symbian smartphones by Nokia. Why is idiot Elop not fully supporting the N9, selling this magnificient smartphone in every market, and launching its sister phone the N950 to the world? What is wrong with the brain of the CEO? And why is the Board still allowing the clueless Microsoft Muppet to run Nokia. He should have been fired long ago. The worst CEO of all time! (PS the continued very strong sales of the N9 and MeeGo suggest very promising starts for two new smartphone operating systems that launch next year - Sailfish the MeeGo next version that will power Jolla smartphones from Finland; and the Tizen alliance which will see first smartphones launched by Samsung and Lenovo in 2013. Tizen is what Samsung too of Nokia-discarded MeeGo and its partnership, and transformed now as a Samsung-led Tizen alliance. With such partners - PARTNERS - as NTT DoCoMo, Sprint, Telefonica, SK Telecom etc - some of the biggest mobile operators/carriers in the world)

If Nokia smartphone overall number is 6.8 million for Q4, that would be slightly up, 8% up, from Q3 and no doubt, the snake-oil-salesman ultimate spin-doctor-in-chief Stephen Elop of Nokia would proudly celebrate that his smartphone unit had growth. Don't be fooled, as the market grew 30%, it means effectively Nokia lost more than one fifth (in mathematical terms, the competitive decline is 22% of its market share last quarter) of its feeble remaining market position just over the past 3 months. Not 'grew by 8%' but rather, lost one fifth of what remained. Nokia's market share in smartphones - which was 29% just 24 months ago - would now fall from 3.7% in Q3 to 2.7% now in Q4. This, if Kantar's numbers are accurately indicating the total global market reality. Do remember, that Brazil is included in this data, so its not just the rich world markets we are looking at.

WINDOWS PHONE EVEN WORSE

And Windows? The Kantar numbers do suggest Windows Phone sales collapsing from Q3 to Q4. Market share falling from 1.9% to 1.3%. Total global Windows Phone sales falling from 3.3 million in Q3 to 2.9 million now in Q4. What collaborative data do we have? We hear that in most markets the Windows Phone based Nokia Lumia smartphones have been selling out. Selling out sounds good. Until we see what trick Nokia CEO has now been playing. The Next Web quotes Elop and runs a story on 20 December explaining that Nokia has deliberately run low initial rates of Lumia 920 and 820 unit production for Christmas, to help create buzz and demand and a feeling of success. Elop admits in his CNet interview on 21 December that "there's frustration due to limited supply. Our focus is on broadening distribution."

Deutche Bank analysts have severely downgraded their Lumia sales numbers saying their market checks reveal far lesser actual sales than initial hype suggested. And remember, if the mix of Windows vs Symbian phones is now reversing to more Symbian, it means Nokia average sales prices would plummet for Christmas, and likely loss-making in the smartphone unit again increase. Last Quarter the Windows Phone unit made a 49% loss per every Lumia smartphone sold. How much worse can it get? 

Then the other Windows Phone partners? I mentoined HTC reducing its Windows Phone 8 offering, including pulling the HTC 8C from many markets and not launching its large screen Windows Phone smartphone. HTC is focusing on where the profits and customers are - on Android obviously.

We'll see soon enough in January, but yes, I am now quite confident in my previous early gut-feeling forecast number that 6.8 million is roughly the level of Nokia total smartphone sales for Q4. The mix of Lumia on Windows Phone vs Symbian is very likely to switch to more Symbian!! So I expect Nokia to have about 63% of its smartphones now in Q4 running still on Symbian/MeeGo and only 37% running on all variants of Windows Phone. 

Meanwhile, globally, Windows Phone would have something in the order of 1.3% market share for Christmas and sell 2.9 million units. It would still remain smaller than Symbian now 22 months after Elop decided to sacrifice Symbian and MeeGo instead of Windows Phone. When Palm - once the world's second biggest smartphone platform - had fallen to about 1% market share (and very unprofitable), it had its mercy killing, being sold to HP and ended. How long will Ballmer keep the massive-losses-generating Windows Phone platform even alive? It will soon go the way of the Kin and the Zune and Microsoft will shift its focus only on the PC and tablet side of the Windows 8 operating system.

How long does Nokia have as a company? I said a year ago it was a dead-man-walking. I expect Nokia to be sold any day now.. In reality, lets see how the US fiscal cliff is sorted out, some sanity and stability is restored to Wall Street, and perhaps all those giant tech and consumer electronics giants sitting on billions of cash, will finally feel it safe enought to start the bidding war on the corpse that is Nokia, mostly obviously for its rich patents portfolio - did you notice again, Nokia picked RIM's pockets again on a patents fight, like it did with Apple about a year ago, etc. So realistically? Lets say a good time frame for when the Nokia take-over battle will happen could be around February-March'ish of 2013.

For those who took part in our Crowd-sourced forecast, remember, a little over a year ago, I asked my Twitter followers to suggest what market share Microsoft Windows Phone would have now at Q4 of 2012. The forecasts ranged from 0.4% to 43.2% with the average suggested at 10.1%. Haha, if Kantar numbers do foretell a reality near 1.3%, then currently the nearest guesses are with Gibson Tang, Maarten Lens-FitzGerald, Josie Fraser and Ben Fletcher. Good luck to all contestants. See the full contest and all entries here: Crowd-sourcing a forecast for Windows Phone.

Note: an early edition of this blog posting mistakenly identified the HTC handset as 8X when it is the 8C that is being pulled. The blog is now corrected.

One plug - For anyone who needs data and numbers on the handset industry, remember my TomiAhonen Phone Book with all the charts, numbers, data you would ever need to know, in a convenient pdf eBook formated for small screens so you can carry all the data right on your tablet or smartphone.

 

Comments

[ts-]

Being distant third doesn't make one the "third ecosystem," and certainly wasn't what Nokia or Microsoft were aiming at. Besides, not getting up to third would've been impossible for Nokia in the EU with *any* platform, but it isn't going to save the company.

[newbie reader]

// Apple achieved over 50% market share (53%) for the first time EVER

Even if Kantar preliminary numbers are true, this is not 50% marketshare.

Apple products have typical peaks after new releases.
Some of these peaks sum /quaterly/ up to double of their real marketshare,
see http://cdn-static.zdnet.com/i/story/70/00/006435/26-10-2012-09-52-49.jpg

Given Apple current US Marketshare at about 33%,
it is quite possible for iPhone5 release peak to reach 50%

However, this fact differs substantially even froms claiming 50% US marketshare, not to say about real/=world/ Marketshare, the only one that really matter.

[newbie reader]

// In the canary in the mine, ... US market

There is no data that supports claim that US market is "canary of the mine".

Neither US Market is typical market, nor does it serve as future trend indicator.

WallStreet BULL-shit producing "analysts" need some "good news" for companies like Apple. They use local US market data, and lagging impressions of its past glory, as a source of such bullish news.

Conversely, opposite thing is true.
US Market is a ***very specific market and not typical market for Apple.*** It is somewhat similar to, what Japan market is, for the likes of Panasonic/

1. The key thing is, in US Market, Apple is allowed to do all this "subsidy" game, essentially resulting in carriers /not buyers/ paying some of their income to Apple.

No other country would allow this kind of profit sucking for US company from their carriers, at that big scale.

2. US market is also very non-typically rich market, as it is a market of major reserve-currency printing nation.

3. Also, US is major Apple patent-trolling stronghold, with products from other companies /samsung/ banned, and others bullied /recent case of huawei and ZTE/

These kind of Apple business practices are clearly pretty much limited to US, making US market very, very far from anything like "canary in the mine".

[svensson]

A comment on the Symbian sales going up despite the non-existent marketing and push from Nokia. It's like Symbian is a competitor to Nokia LOL! It wouldn't surprise me if Elop saw it that way.

We are all happy about the release of 808PW with 41mpix wonder from Carl-Zeiss. Got mine last month and couldn't be happier.

[winter]

@Baron95
Desoeration shows. Clearly, MS shareholders get out the champaigne. 5% new sales with old people. In some markets, rich markets, were young people spend money. A new monopoly is on the horizon.

And you are gaming your blocking. How desperate can you get as a troll.

[MarcoAustria]

Why Windows Software was and is a failure. 2 funny and interesting rants

Why Windows Phone suck - in this case WP 7 but MS didn't make major changes so many will still be relevant:
http://www.wpsauce.com/2012/05/windows-phones-suck.html

and why the Zune suck - which is a central software piece for Windows Phone 7 and 8
http://www.wpsauce.com/2012/05/zune-trojan-horse-wp-citadel.html

[B a r o n 9 5]

Everything going according to plan and the 2010 prediction.

Apple - dominating the well to do, credit worth, credit-card backed iTunes users that actually use the devices and consume paid apps and content.

Android for the low margin, hordes that can's pay plus a chunk of the "I want to revolt against the Cupertino dominance" crowd.

RIM, Symbian, Bada, Meego cratering or still born.

Microsoft+OEMs pouring money on it to try to get a thrid thing going, with at best niche success.

[chithanh]

@B a r o n 9 5
You have been a commenter for so long, but it seems you don't ever bother to read what Tomi writes. Of course not the US, but instead Japan is where the new technologies emerge, this was posted in many articles. Though a shift to China can be observed now.

Nokia was never very successful in US, actually their total market share remained quite stable over the years (in low single digits).

[Tester]

@chitanh:

>> You have been a commenter for so long, but it seems you don't ever bother to read what Tomi writes.

You have to understand. That's not his goal. His only objective is obviously to hammer into people's heads that Android is for losers and anyone self-respecting buys Apple and nothing else.

I think it's quite obvius that he's merely a paid shill.

[togga]

@tomi "including pulling the HTC 8C from many markets and not launching its large screen Windows Phone smartphone."

Rumor has it, that WP still has resolution requirements that disallows phone makers to compete on the market. Maybe HTC really wanted to try the market but they were helpless since Ballmer said no-no.

http://mashable.com/2012/12/17/htc-large-windows-phone/

"HTC has given up on producing a large-screen Windows Phone-based smartphone, Bloomberg reports citing a source familiar with the project. The reasoning behind this decision lies in Windows Phone 8's maximum allowed screen resolution: 1280x720 pixels. "

[AtTheBottomOfTheHilton]

I'm surprised about the high number of Symbian sales as the Nokia has no new models left. It is only 808 PureView and that's it and a bunch of older Symbian models which shouldn't be manufactured anymore.

What is obvious is that the OS from Jolla is dead on arrival. Despite it will good, Jolla simply have the capacity to leverage the OS. Meego was the last chance of Nokia and there will be no more room for any further Linux derivative now. We have a bunch of them already, Bada, Firefox OS, Meego, Tizen. All of these have minimal market share and the only successful Linux based OS is Android. In practice we have four players now, from biggest to smallest, Android, iOS, BB10 and Windows Phone. After these 4 there will be minimal room of other players. Even Windows Phone will be small compared to the other 3. There will be a fierce fight between BB10 and Windows Phone which BB10 will win. Android will no 1 by a great margin while iOS will not move by any greater means in market share.

[KenAdams]

@ Bokkelman, Ballmer said the same thing some two years ago too, how WP7 was gonna be a game changer in the mobile world, how it was gonna capture 15% of the market, yada yada yada. It has not happened. Judging by the WP7 record of capturing a measly 2% market share, it is difficult to believe that all of sudeen WP8 will turn the tables around.

[QtFan]

@P.Bokkelman
Looking at the chart in absolute numbers, WP grew 0.91% to 0.95%. WP world domination just around the corner. LOL

[ts-]

@P.Bokkelman

Similar blind optimism has been shown by numerous people just in the comments of this blog for almost two years, yet nothing has come out of it. Nokia will be popular in Finland until it's demise, but that won't save the company.

[winter]

A new crop of shills. Recognize the optimistic outlook with a complete lack of reasobs for optimism:
- Who are the target markets?
- Why would they prefer WP8?
- What actually is the competition?
- What makes WP8 price/performance superior?

We can spell these out for iOS, Android, BB, bada, etc. But how about WP8 or Lumia.

Yes they are expensive, yes they are cluncky, yes they have less apps, yes there are soft/hardware problems, yes they are not available.

[Tester]

How does WP manage to raise its marketshare in some isolated countries, like Italy?

Actually quite simple: They are tossing out all their unwanted phones at bargain basement prices in one single country to get some good news that way.

Who cares that these customers are not the most desirable (most likely non-tech-knowledgeable ones) and that such an operation comes at a collossal financial loss? Regardless, such marketing efforts are not sustainable long term. Even someone like Microsoft has to pull the plug eventually.

[newbie reader]

// Lumia 920 is the most advanced smartphone now

Let's check your Lumia 920.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_Lumia_920

1. Screen: 720p screen

SGS3 had it half-a-year ago, in mobile industry it is rather "old as hell", or "industry-average", and most advanced now is 1080p.

2. CPU:S4 MSM8960 2-core 1.5 Ghz Krait

Check this page
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snapdragon_%28system_on_chip%29#Snapdragon_S4

to see where this MSM8960 CPU stands.
It stands in older "S4 Plus" family, while "S4 Pro" family and "S4 Prime" families are most advanced S4 CPUs. Most advanced Krait CPU now are 4-core APQ8064 /hidden smile here/ And also Kraits are now in fact yielding to new A7/A15 family CPUs.

3. RAM: 1Gb.
"most advanced" now have 2Gb. /see e.g. recent ZTE Nubia announce and all others/

4. Flash: 32Gb, no SD card.

Most top models have 64gb, 6month-old SGS3 has 32Gb+64Gb.SDcard=96Gb flash. /and how much of these 32Gb Lumia flash are really free from W8/

Four failed points of four.
___
As we see, that stupid MS Troll could not even read some simple Wiki pages, and yet he talks trash, like "if your knowledge is so low, I doesn't make a difference to spell the basics for you".

All he can read aloud, is that MS Slogan, "most innovative phone".

Most "innovative" and shameless promo campaign, that's what it really is.

[Tester]

@P.Bokkelman:

>>Lumia 920 is the most advanced smartphone now, many reviews say the same.

Yeah, sure. Most likely those reviews that got 'sponsored' by the Microsoft Mafia.

>>And it's selling very well.

LOL! Proof, please!

>>It is quite an expensive phone and you won't find it for a bargain basement price.

... and according to statistic it makes up a measly 3% of all WP sales. Which is kind of odd, considering that even for Android the high end Galaxy S3 is the most popular device.

Conclusion: High end customers do not buy Windows Phone.

>>And it got a deal with worlds biggest operator, China Mobile. Something that Apple and iPhone couldn't do.

Let's talk again in a few months when we know how little effect such a deal has.
Exclusivity does not equal success.

>>Times are changing.. You guys just don't know what you are talking.

Yes, times are changing, indeed. For the first time in 3 decades we see Microsoft not being able to shove their product down the customers' throats.

>>You will see, Nokia smartphones will bounce back in 2013 as profitable business. Then you will know what you were told.

Dream on! There's no numbers to find anywhere that may hint at such a scenario. Nokia would have to move 10x as many phones as they sell right now and on top of that need to find customers who actually WANT their stuff, not those who buy it because it's cheap.
I think before that happens a delayed Mayan apocalypse may appear, the likelihood of that is higher.

The writing is clearly on the wall, that NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE, and that the only 'successes' in the market are heavily sponsored and discounted promotions that generate significant loss.

[Tester]

You know what:

It all doesn't matter!

First, many of these so-called 'reviewers' have to be positive, no matter what, about anything Microsoft.

Second, it all doesn't help. The market has already spoken: It doesn't want Windows Phone! It wants Android and iOS.
So, put up 2 phones with the same specs, one running on Android, the other on WP8, the Android device will win by default.
And the Lumia can't even compete with Samsung on much more basic terms: It's too clunky and too heavy.

Last but not least: IT DOESN'T SELL! Statistics have clearly proven that even among WP devices it's a minor player.

So say what you want, if people really wanted to own this thing the numbers would tell so. But if you look at the sales charts of large retailers like Amazon the Lumias rank at the bottom of the pack. Which clearly tells us: It's not a success, people do not want it, the reason they don't want it is Windows Phone. Specs are irrelevant in such a situation. Reviews are also irrelevant. As soon as the review mentions Windows Phone the rest has no meaning. People are not that dumb to voluntarily buy stuff from the same company that has screwed them over with Windows countless times over the years. Not when they have an alternative.

[newbie reader]

A selection of paid and rather clueless reviews.
And examples to see, what fake user comment feeds looks like.

As for Woz, it was just his sidewalk comments on WP 7.5 Mango.
It didn't help much to WP 7.5

BTW, I forgot one other important spec, weight/thinness/battery.
(battery is here, because two other specs in fact make no sense without batt. spec)

Lumia 920
185g, 107mm, 2000Mah, non-removable

SGS3
133g, 86mm, 2100Mah, removable

iPhone 5,
112g, 76mm, no manufacturer data

As we see, Lumia is ***rather bulky phone*** with a bit lower battery capacity than SGS3. And I suppose, that WP8 is most power-hungry OS of the three, given its W7 heritage.