First Look into Final 2012 full year market shares for smartphones and OS wars, the Top 3 are settled on both

The full-year 2012 race for smartphones has its Top 3 settled for both handsets and operatin systems. We have the RIM results for Q4 - 6.9 million units which is down 7% from Q3 and gives Blackberry about 3% market share now in Q4 both in hardware and the operating system race. It also gives us the numbers we need to be able to verify the top 3 for the full year for 2012, both in smartphone handset market and the OS market.


PLEASE NOTE - the actual numbers are now in (February 13, 2013) so please read the full Q4 and end of year 2012 smartphone market share numbers here. 



The top 3 in handsets for 2012 are settled. The exact number & market share are of course waiting for Q4 results data out in January, but the relative rankings are settled. The year was won by Samsung and Android. Congratulations. Here is the definite Top 3 for both charts, and the number range to expect for total sales for the year and market share as my best guesstimate.

TOP 3 SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS 2012
1 Samsung . . . . 220M - 235M units about 32% market share
2 Apple . . . . . . . 140M - 150M units about 20% market share
3 Huawei . . . . . . . 55M - 60M units about 8% market share
Race for 4th is between Sony, ZTE, Nokia and RIM (about 5% each)
Others in Top 10 for the year are HTC, LG and Lenovo (about 4% each)
Motorola has fallen out of the top 10 in global smartphone makers for hte full year
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates December 21, 2012
This data may be freely shared

And in the operating systems we also have most of the Top 6 settled, with only the race for fourth place still open, between Samsung's bada and Nokia's Symbian. This is the Top 3 definite and the other races for the top 6 operating systems in smartphones for the full year 2012

TOP 3 SMARTPHONE OPERATING SYSTEMS FULL YEAR 2012
1 Android . . . . . . 465M - 485M about 66% market share
2 iOS . . . . . . . . . 140M - 150M about 20% market share
3 Blackberry . . . . . 33M and about 5% market share
4th will be race between Samsung's bada and Nokia's Symbian (about 3% either)
Windows Phone is definitely going to be ranked 6th operating system by sales in 2012 (about 2%)
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates December 21, 2012
This data may be freely shared

The top 3 are definite for the year. I will keep monitoring the rest of the info. I cannot fail to observe the irony of it being now nearly two years from the Elop Effect and when Stephen Elop of Nokia exchanged the world's most used smartphone OS, Symbian, to a tiny start-up with 2% market share, Windows Phone. Now, almost two years later, Symbian has tumbled losing 9 out of every 10 customers it had, and even for this year, Symbian still outsold all of Windows Phone, even after those highly-hyped Lumia smartphones released by Nokia all through this year. What does the highly-promised 'third ecosystem' Windows Phone do today, after all those Nokia sacrifices? It will end the year with about 2% market share!! Yes, with full Nokia's sales power behind it, massacre'ing 29% of Nokia's Symbian market share, Elop has not moved the Windows Phone market share needle even by one percent!!! Windows Phone had 2% market share in Q4 of 2010, exactly two years ago, before this partnership was announced and now we know for a fact, Windows Phone will end with 2% for this full year market share after Nokia is fully oboard. Pathetic! Yeah. Dumbest management move of all time, no doubt. Why is Elop allowed to run the company? He is the most incompetent CEO of all time.

And PS - if you are still drinking that Windows cool-aid by Steve Ballmer, why is HTC reducing the availability of its low-cost Windows Phone handset the 8S including ending its US sales - while the world market in smartphones is shifting to lower-cost smartphones? And why is HTC also not releasing its promised large-screen Windows Phone 8 based smartphone? If Windows Phone was the success Ballmer (and Elop) are hyping, then HTC should be happily onboard. Look at the reality of the market, not the hype from the delusional CEOs... I warned you that Microsoft has poisoned all carrier relationships after it bought Skype. Since then the Windows partnership has lost Sony, LG, Dell (Motorola had already left) and now Samsung is shifting its focus in 2013 to Tizen. HTC is diminshing its involvement and Nokia is the dead man walking, about to drop out of the Top 10 biggest smartphone makers. Is this a 'healthy' third ecosystem or is this the last gasps of a smartphone platform that should be allowed to die in peace. Just for full year 2010, Windows smartphones on both Windows Mobile and Windows Phone had 5% market share and many of its partners were struggling even then.. Isn't it about time for Microsoft to admit, Windows on smartphones is another Zune, another Kin, another dead path..

For the installed base, we know the full Top 6. That race is so clear, the rankings are totally settled

TOP 4 SMARTPHONE OPERATING SYSTEMS BY INSTALLED BASE AT END OF 2012
1 Android . . . . . . .  about 710 million smartphones in use and 53% of global installed base
2 iOS . . . . . . . . . . about 260 million smartphones in use and 19% of global installed base
3 Symbian  . . . . . . about 190 million smartphones in use and 14% of global installed base
4 Blackberry . . . . . 104 million smartphones in use and 8% of global installed base
5 bada  . . . . . . . . . about 30 million smartphones in use and above 2% of global installed base
6 Windows Phone . about 20 million smartphones in use and under 2% of global installed base
Total smartphones in use at end of 2012 about 1.3 Billion across all platforms globally
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates December 21, 2012
RIM/Blackberry data final, other 5 (Android, iOS, Symbian, bada, Windows Phone) subject to final Q4 data
This data may be freely shared

And for Q4, RIM and HTC numbers suggest that HTC has fallen to about 8th and RIM to about 9th, both with about 3% market share. Last quarter we saw Motorola fall out of the Top 10 and this Q4 we may see Nokia follow, it is chased by Coolpad of China ie Yulong. I will keep us posted as the numbers come in. For those playing at home, I am modelling about 248 million smartphones sold in Q4 and 720M for the full year. There is some number out already suggesting the full year 2012 smartphone sales were 780M so we may be having a big Christmas season for smartphones, but lets not get ahead of ourselves. We'll know in late January and early February for sure.

And all who need more info about the handset market, remember my TomiAhonen Phone Book 2012 with all the stats and facts you could ever hope for in one ebook.

Comments

[Shou Ji]

Good to see Tizen Association's member, Samsung and Huawei, in "TOP 3 SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS 2012".

[Nils]

Tomi, a question about the Windows Phone 7 market share in 2010 which was 2 percent. Does that include both Windows Mobile and Windows Phone or only the latter.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Shou Ji and Nils

Shou Ji - thanks, yes, 2013 looks very promising for Tizen, as the new ecosystem ramps up. If we see what Samsung was able to achieve alone with bada, now consider all the partners in the Tizen Association, it should rather rapidly grow to become the real third ecosystem behind Android and iOS, possibly even during 2013 or at least into 2014

Nils - good question. Windows Phone launched only in Q4 of 2010, so that 2% is Q4 only, and it only was Windows Phone specific market share, not counting Windows Mobile. Windows Mobile and Windows Phone combined for the full year 2010 were a little under 5% and at Q4 of 2010, their combined market share - all Windows in smartphones was still 4% about half Windows Phone, half Windows Mobile. That crashed to 2% by end of last year and was at a peak of 3% in the second quarter of this year when Nokia was at its peak before the Windows Phone 6.x series was Osborned by Ballmer and Windows Phone market share again collapsed..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[cycnus]

Tomi,

Do you think Microsoft will try new trick/hype to boost the WP8 sales?
Do you think MozillaOS & Tizen/SailFish will have a better chance than WP8?
I think 2013 will be interesting.

[newbie reader]

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[newbie reader]

typo: $230.

SameThing speeds up rollout of 14nm tech
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[KenAdams]

...and Apple captures 53% of the US market share while Android drops to 42%...

http://www.idownloadblog.com/2012/12/21/kantar-us-smartphone-2012/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[KenAdams]

AND STILL, NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS PHONE...

[Tester]

>> ...and Apple captures 53% of the US market share while Android drops to 42%...

... which not coincidentaly fully covers the time period when the new iPhone 5 was released - and we all know too well that every iSlave needs that, no matter what the cost is.

I find the reporting of such numbers quite odd. Of course Apple was bound to sell more devices when no significant Android phone got released at the same time.

But if you look at a time period when a major new Android device causes a spike it's just business as usual.

Funny, how you can twist every statistic to your own liking if you take it out of context.

What matters in the end is not how many devices are sold but how these sales affect market share. If it's just the annual replacement of the old one it's nice for Apple, but meaningless for the market as a whole.

Of course these numbers we do not get here.

I'd say the next quarter will tell the real story. How does the market behave if it doesn't include half the smartphone users replacing their one year old phone, not to mention all those who skipped over the iPhone 4S last year.

Of course, I think we can be assured that the picture will fully reverse when Samsung releases the Galaxy S4 next year.

Still, does it all matter? For me as a developer it's still the same situation. The market demands both iOS and Android versions of each app. Those who focus on just one of these platforms will eventually feel the pressure somewhat.

[Esau]

Nokia didn't feel smartphone market challenging enough. They are announcing a Windows tablet. Well, that is challenging enough, I think.

The same day, a $99.- tablet from Google was in the news. Google can release a tablet even in Gellogs Rice Crispies box. They can afford that because they earn from contents, they earn from web usage. Nokia earns only from hardware making and sales. Why did they make a decision to put their last money in the tablet competition? Competing with content providers like Google? They have no chance - none at all. The decision was made in Redmond - I am sure about that.

By the way. What was the purpose of the trip when the Prime Minister of Finland visited Redmond 2008?

[Esau]

Why do you repeat that. That is self evident.
NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET!
Please do not repeat that because
NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET!
That is self evident.

[Wayne Borean]

Ignore the Ballmer story, the Swedes were copying from the New York Daily Post, a rag with a level for accuracy on par with Microsoft's ability to sell Windows Phone.

Ballmer is a personal friend of Bill Gates. Gates is still the largest shareholder at Microsoft. A single quarter of bad sales won't hurt his position. A year? Maybe.

Or the loss of one of the major computer OEMs. Which is quite possible. Microsoft has upset a lot of partners over the last couple of years (Surface, Windows Phone, Windows 8).

Wayne

[Esau]

"why is HTC reducing the availability of its low-cost Windows Phone handset"

See todays Helsingin Sanomat (the most respected newspaper in Finland). The most respected department store Stockmann was advertising HTC Windows Phone for 349.- €. No mention about Lumia but they were advertising iPad as well.

[Winter]

@Wayne Borean
"A single quarter of bad sales won't hurt his position."

There are several points to make here:

1 Speculations about Ballmer's dismissal ranked up over the year. This is again a notch up.

2 Share price is the current asset value plus the discounted value of future profits, no future profits, share tank to current assets. See Nokia. Most of MS' share price are based on future profits. Ballmer is burning though the assets at high speed ($6B Bing, $8B Skype, etc.)

3 MS are trying to repeat the Elop: Force captive current users to switch to a new platform. Desktop users must be forced onto the Metro GUI to ensure they can be pressured to buy Windows Phone. If the users do not bite, MS are toast.

It did not work with Symbian, as current Symbian users simply switched to Android phones. But if you do not succeed the first time, try and try again.

4 MS share holders bought the shares based on MS monopoly status. If MS lose their monopoly status, their shares will be dumped wholesale.

5 OEMs need sales. If Windows 8 decreases sales, OEMs will go look for an alternative OS. Android would easily fit as most users know the interface already.

[Alex Kerr]

Tomi,

Do Android numbers ("about 710 million ... in use") factor in upgrades to and replacements of existing Android phones by existing users? That number sounds close to what I'd expect total Android activations to date would be, judging by Google's periodic announcements.

Based on the best info I can find, while Android activation numbers do not include an upgrade of the OS on a specific phone (fair enough), they do include new Android phones sold to existing Android customers - so the earlier phone sold to the same user (counted as an activation) and now lost/stolen/broken/shoved in drawer, should be subtracted from the numbers in use. I am willing to bet, IF this is correct (correct me if I am wrong) that this knocks a few hundred million off Androids in actual use...

Thanks,
Alex

[Thomas]

Well, I for one am looking forward to the fight of 2013: Nokia vs Coolpad!

[chithanh]

@Alex Kerr
The rate at which hardware breaks or is retired from use is usually factored into installed base calculations.
Look at the Blackberry news yesterday where they face shrinking customer numbers for the first time. Such a thing can't be possible if you only consider cumulative sales. (However, installed base *comparisons* can be done using cumulative sales, within some limitations)

[kenadams]

really good article on the future of Microsoft (and subsequently Nokia): http://betanews.com/2012/10/29/windows-is-doomed/

[cycnus]

@Alex Kerr

I also have the same question a couple of months back... lol
I give you hint, look back 3 month, 6 month, 9 month, 1 year to tomi post.
and you'll see that Symbian number & also BB number were shrinking.

@Thomas...
for 2013
Nokia vs. Coolpad is not interesting... it's predictable.
Apple vs. Huawei is VERY interesting... when will huawei beat Apple
HTC, Sony vs. China manufacture is also VERY interesting.... can the old dog stay on top?
Motorola.... will it make a comeback under google, or will it vanish?
RIM... I still think RIM will dead very soon.... am I right?
LG... Nexus4... will it help LG?

[Clarisonic Mia]

If we are calling smartphones 'computers' then by all means all types of videogame consoles should earn the moniker 'computers' aswell.