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November 30, 2012

Comments

antti

What is the most positive opinion about nokia righ now?

James G

I think you're being too optimistic Tomi. MS just lowered their expectations for the tablets, the phone is a dud.

http://www.channelregister.co.uk/2012/11/29/microsoft_halves_surface_orders/

Pekka

Symbian market share was in a decline, but quantity of shipped phones were increasing from 15M (2009) to 25M (end of 2010) per quarter. With WP7 Nokia shipped 6M phones last quarter.
If WP8 and discounbted WP7.5 Lumias are successful we should expect at least 7M shipped lumias in Q4/2012. Plus some Symbians, total volume about 8-9M. If sales are not going to increase more than market is increasing from Q3 to Q4 Nokias smartphone business will be in even more serious trouble than it currently is.

Earendil Star

Now, these MS asto-turfing-trolls remind me of Orwell's 1984.

History is being rewritten to suit the propaganda that these people are trying to get through.

"Actually when Elop became the CEO Q3-Q4 2010, Android already had bigger market share than Symbian."

Uhm, actually no (check Gartner numbers). Android was able to overtake Symbian only in Q1 2011... thanks to the helping hand of THT Elop.

You want to spread lies? We'll uncover each and every one of them on this blog.

Go and spread you misinformation and FUD somewhere else.

MH

Some random thoughts stimulated by the article:

Since Nokia has been losing money on each smartphone, maybe the price hike and exclusive deals are an admission that they are not going to have a mass-market breakthrough, so need to stop making a loss on each smartphone they sell - i.e. admission that they have become a nice player.

Other than that, exclusive deals seem to be a bad idea because the rate of progress is so rapid that by the time the period of exclusivity has ended, some competitor has broght out an even better product.

Regarding Skype, is that an issue with 4G phones - as I understand it 4G is a data-only network anyway, and the few operators that offer it are charging handsomely for the privilege. And in the case of high-end phones on contract, isn't the customer locked into a hefty monthly payment that includes "free" talk time - so use of Skype is not detracting from this except for the operator not getting termination fees.

On the question of 3rd ecosystem, I'd imagine that operators would want something that is strong where iOS and Android are weak, and that is clearly keyboard-phones where Blackberry is the obvious contender with its excellent track record and an offering that still makes great sense to corporates (and simpler to administer than Windows clients). So Tomi's observation that operators are looking at Tizen is intriguing.

IMO the thing that will put a damper on WP8 sales is that, on the surface, it is so little different from WP7. The customer's dilemma is that WP7 is a dead end and cheap, WP8 is not but you pay a lot more and there is no great advantage you get for the money. Both options rather demotivating.

Also give the now well established track record of WM/WP old versions not getting software updates, consumers must have serious doubts about promises made for WP8 (my personal opinion as a sysadmin is that WP8 *will* get meaningful updates... but for the man-in-the-street there is no track record to back that opinion).

I *did* manage to recently persuade a friend to buy a Lumia 800 now that they have been marked down so much - he was looking for a featurephone with a decent camera and battery life, rather than a smartphone.

CN

@MH

"Regarding Skype, is that an issue with 4G phones - as I understand it 4G is a data-only network anyway..."

Not quite. In the early days of LTE (4G as you call it) voice element was not in place. Now, CSFB aka Circuit-Switch Fallback is quite commonly in use and it means that once a voice call is coming, the device starts to use 2G or 3G networks for that. (Data will stay in LTE as long as LTE coverage is available.) Then again, few operators have taken the first step to VoLTE, Voice over LTE, where voice call is indeed VoIP, using LTE network.

Skype. Technically it is not any kind of a problem for operators to charge separately for "Skype data" or any other OTT (over the top) data. TeliaSonera Sweden decided to do it but recently they pulled back from this idea and simply raised the tariffs to cover the estimated loss of voice revenues. Read here and see that we do talk about fairly large share of total revenues.

http://gigaom.com/mobile/teliasonera-drops-extra-voip-fees-but-raises-rates/

And note, Skype is not as big issue as some want to make it look like.

Tester

@Earendil Star:

>>Go and spread you misinformation and FUD somewhere else.

What I really like are those who try counter FUD buy their own FUD, i.e. you.


So a few corrections to your statement are in order:

>> Uhm, actually no (check Gartner numbers). Android was able to overtake Symbian only in Q1 2011... thanks to the helping hand of THT Elop.

So what? The Elop effect only affected half the quarter at most, if you assume an instant lethal hit on the market. But things don't work that quickly.
I won't dispute that it had an effect - but I don't think it was that dramatic due to the short timespan between the time it finally sank in and the end of the quarter. The full Elop effect could only be witnessed in the second quarter of 2011.
However, from extrapolation of past data it's quite clear that Android would have overtaken Symbian in the first quarter anyway.

Android was already on the rise - quite strongly, btw, and Symbian was already on the way out, albeit at a relatively gentle pace. Combine these two and disregard the disruption done by Elop and Android would still have come out at the top in that quarter.

If you don't believe me: Gartner, which you cited posted the following numbers in Q4/2010: Symbian falling, with 32.3% marketshare, Android rising with 30.5%. Not much expertise in math is needed to make a projection for the next quarter, don't you think?

The game was already over for Symbian at that point. Elop accelerated its decline though, but he dit not cause it.

switch-hitter

To those saying Symbian's marketshare fell between 2007 and 2010 I'd like to point out the pitiful hardware NOKIA's devices had at the time (e.g. the 5230 and the 5800).

No GPU, very slow CPU, tiny amounts of ram, unresponsive resistive screens, ugly physical design. Despite all those shortcomings NOKIA's Symbian devices continued to outsell all others on the planet. Why? Because Symbian was hugely functional even in extremely constrained devices.

Symbian kept NOKIA in the game, it was not NOKIA's problem it was NOKIA's saving grace.

The N8, which came out in Q4 2010, was imo really the first time since 2007 NOKIA had produced some hardware that was as desirable as the competitions. Of course the N8 was not given a very big window of opportunity in which to shine having been released in Q4 2010 and Symbian then being deprecated in Q1 2011.

Publicly deprecating Symbian and MeeGo inevitably meant carriers and retailers would not continue to actively market NOKIA's smart devices or take more into their inventory, it also meant users who wanted a high degree of functionality would most likely opt for an Android device (iOS and WPx don't offer functionality like true multitasking, a scripting layer, full bluetooth connectivity to any device, usb mass storage, usb on-the-go, side-loading, etc...). These consequences were surely entirely predictable. As Symbian plummets Android soars.

The point at which Symbian's sales dropped off a cliff are very clear for everyone to see, it's right after Elop announced it EOL. The amusing pseudo-analysis we see from some of the participants in this blog claiming it was just about to happen anyway is pointedly never supported by any verifiable evidence, just conjecture.

As a user of both Android and Symbian devices the suggestion Symbian could not compete is frankly rather silly, there's very little to choose between the two except on battery usage where Symbian has the advantage.

Still, having said all the above, I would gladly have abandoned Symbian for a full Linux distro (like MeeGo) on a pocketable device. I'm looking forward to Sailfish devices and hope they're not going to be too locked down or otherwise artificially crippled.

Tomasz R.

Windows Phone 8 seems to be a dead-end. The new Microsoft system is Windows Blue.

http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=29300

"Windows Blue/Windows 9 will be part of an effort to complete the transition of Windows Phone and Windows (PC) into a single code-base and consistent user interface. As part of this effort, Windows Phone may receive a corresponding "Blue" update, as well."

John Fro

MS makes tons of money off of Android phones through patent licensing and both Apple and MS believe that they can stop Android and Samsung in particular through patent enforcement. This will mean that it does not matter how good MS phones are or what consumers actually want, as there will be only those phones patent aggregators allow for sale. If Apple succeeds in stopping the sale of all Samsung tablets and phones by using the WTO and various courts then what choice will consumers have? MS will be happy they provide the crack in the door, but sad to see the licensing fees dry up. MS is also planning on using UEFI to block Android on tablets and desktops using ARM chips. This is also important in the server market. The issue is not what will happen in 2013, but in five to ten years, as MS is taking a very long view of things. Without patent reform, Google will probably be bled to death in the courts.

RubberChicken

Tomi, you are forgetting the synergies effect between Windows 8 and Windows Mobile 8, as they both share the Metro interface. Microsoft published this week that they have sold 40 millions copies of Windows 8 and that number will only increase. So I expect the sales of Windows Mobile to take of in the beginning of next year.

foo

I think that Stephen Elop's legend is too important to be forgotten.

You should compile your articles and publish a book.

Here's my proposed cover:

http://oi49.tinypic.com/30tg9a8.jpg

winter

MS claims they "sold" 40M licenses of W8. Channel stuffing to match Android activations.

Because, 1.3M Android activations a day means 40M activation a month. Therefore, MS have stuffed the same number of licenses to their serves (partners).

Never have MS releases true numbers, not even under oath in front of a judfe.

Tester

@RubberChicken:

What synergies? I've yet to meet a single person who likes Metro on Win8. I know a few who quickly bought a Win7 machine to avoid it. Telling a poor Win8 customer about start menu replacements makes them smile in relief.
Conclusion: People hate Metro on Win8. Do you really expect them to buy a phone with the same hated user interface?
I sure do not.

If there's synergies it's more like Win8 will drive users away from Windows Phone.

Hell, as much as I dislike Apple, before I buy one overpriced Lumia 920, I'd rather choose an iPhone 5 instead. It's a superior device in any conceivable way.

So, no, sorry. If that's what MS wants to compete against, they will lose. Their only chance would be in the budget segment where most customers don't really know what they are buying into. But that's clearly not the target market for Windows Phone.

MrPetzold

Tomi has written this "Elop destroyed Nokia"- story quite a few times now.

Yes, Elop has made grave mistakes and term "Elop Effect" is well deserved.

Yes, Nokia was indeed growing sales and profits in the smartphone segment before Elop effect.

But, Nokia at that time (remember Nokia N8) made awful products. What was N8 ?
-a very good camera
-awful operating system (Symbian 3 without Anna update)
-outdated display
-very slow processor
-horrible browser
-terrible app store

Even with Elop's mistakes, what is Lumia 920 ?
-Best camera (with OIS and HACC mics it's way better than competition)
-Very good display (better than S3 or iP5)
-Very good touch (works with finger nails, gloves etc)
-Fast and Industrial strength Operating System Wp8
-Fast Cpu & Gpu, lots of RAM and storage
-Wireless charging

Just look at The Verge review. They had 2 complaints:
-It's thick and heavy. Well, Jessica Alba seems to manage quite well. 'nuff said ;-)
-The app ecosystem is weaker than competition. With Wp8 support for C/C++ this won't be a problem in 6 months.

My point ?

-Before Elop Nokia made horrible outdated products that sold well because of Nokia's reputation and brand strength.
-Now they make genuine world class products again.

I think I like the new Nokia more. Oh, and Lumia 920 pricing is quite right. It is a better product than S3 or iP5.

Earendil Star

@ tester, you're a laugh, really.

So, let's see. First you talk about FUD, not knowing what it means, since it is totally out of context in your sentence.

Then, you say that what I said is right, i.e. that Android had not overtaken Symbian in Q3/Q4 2010.

Then you speak of things I never mentioned, but then refer to my comment, which had nothing to do with that.

Unbelievable.

*****

In any case, let's go back to one crucial issue. It is important, because the MS*astro*turfer*troll tactic is usually that of distracting the readers from what really counts.

You see, no-one would ever deny that Symbian was declining. Everybody agrees on that. That's the reason OPK was fired for.

Now, the clown who was called to replaced him, a certain Mr nobody in the mobile market called THT Elop, was supposed to reverse this trend.

What happened? The decline was hugely accelerated. Plus, Nokia's future as an independent company was terminated.

Nokia has now no other future than being a low-margin captive OEM, or becoming a MS division.

Everything else is meaningless distraction. Irrelevant.

And the distruction of Nokia began when somebody in the board decided the MS strategy (which led to the hiring of MR THT Elop Nobody in Mobile) probably at the beginning of 2010. And THT Elop started the sabotage, as instructed, as soon as he got to the helm. 2011 is just when he disclosed his MS plan.

All of this Jorma Ollila knows. Jorma must speak.

We deserve to know. Finland deserves to know. The world deserves to know.

Wayne Borean


I'd like to refer everyone to two articles written by Charlie Demerjian:

Microsoft has Failed
http://semiaccurate.com/2012/11/14/microsoft-has-failed/

Microsoft's Problems: Another Datapoint
http://semiaccurate.com/2012/11/27/microsofts-problems-another-data-point/

Add to that

1) The recent news from NPD that Windows 8 sales are far below Windows 7 sales

2) Microsoft Office sales are reliant on Windows client sales

3) Microsoft server sales were already sagging, before Microsoft introduced their "new" server interface

What you have is a company in trouble. Unfortunately Microsoft is going to destroy companies like Nokia, Symantec, Sophos, etc. It isn't a good tIme to rely on Microsoft, in fact if you use Microsoft software, you'd better start planning your exit strategy, and do so quickly. Microsoft's next two financial reports are critical, and if they show what I expect, all he'll is going to break loose.

Wayne

chithanh

@Wayne Borean
> 2) Microsoft Office sales are reliant on Windows client sales"

There are reports that Microsoft plans to bring Office to iOS and Android devices:
http://www.theverge.com/2012/11/7/3612422/microsoft-office-mobile-ipad-iphone-android-screenshots/in/2578933

> Microsoft's next two financial reports are critical, and if they show what I expect, all he'll is going to break loose.

I'll quote what was said over at Mini-Microsoft about the SemiAccurate article:
"The author shows complete ignorance of MS business model, dismissing OEM distribution channel, and the fact that businesses are locked in for years with enterprise agreements. Microsoft will not disappear overnight whatever the actual early usage of Win 8 turns out to be."

http://minimsft.blogspot.de/2012/11/a-microsoft-without-sinofsky.html?commentPage=2#c643479942648051949

While Windows Phone may be failing, Microsoft itself isn't and can continue to cross-subsidize their mobile business for quite some time.

Tester

>> There are reports that Microsoft plans to bring Office to iOS and Android devices:

Well, if that isn't the first sign of admission that something is wrong.

And no matter how locked in businesses are, people hate Microsoft. Many would jump at the first chance to get out.

The strange thing is that Microsoft doesn't do anything to keep these people satisfied. Instead they are pissing them off even more by their arrogant decision to force Metro on everyone.

And I can tell you one thing: Microsoft can't afford to lose these customers. Once it starts it will turn into an avalanche.

Many only depend on Microsoft because they work with companies depending on Microsoft so if one piece of the chain goes, the entire chain might go with it.

No, I don't expect them to go quickly, I'd rather expect them to increase their bullying tactics to remain in business. This, however, will piss of even more of their customers. Of course this can't go well.

So when the whole thing eventually blows, it wouldn't surprise me if Microsoft collapses huge.

James G

@chithanh

So what if MS brings Office to iOS and Android. It will always be a version or feature behind Office on Win 8. The web version won't work the same on Safari or Chrome as it does on Internet Exploder. They only do this porting to introduce people to their "superior" product to get them to switch platforms. Office on the first Mac may have been better because Windows was not yet 32-bit ready and the Mac was, but now Office on the Mac is always behind a version or lacking in important features such as VBA (now added back in due to poor sales without).

The comments to this entry are closed.

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