Smartphones Q3 Final Numbers, Top 10 biggest manufacturers, operating systems, installed base etc

So its that time of the year. We're in the Smartphone Bloodbath wars, Year Three: Digital Jamboree. Its Q3. We now have all four big analyst houses who have reported their total market size numbers (IDC, Gartner, Strategy Analytics and Canalys) and as I always do, I use their average as my 'official total' and then fit the best possible fit, of the biggest manufacturers, operating systems etc to get the Top 10 market shares. I also report on the installed base, and for every quarter, I report individually for the manufacturers, how I think they're doing in the market share wars. So lets start with the top numbers

TEN BIGGEST SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS BY UNIT SALES IN Q3 2012

Rank . Maker . . . . . . Units . . . Market Share . Was in Q2 of 2012 . . OS supported (coming)
1 . . . . Samsung  . . . 56.2 M . . 32.8 % . . . . . .( 32.9 %) . . . . . . . . . Android, bada, Windows, (Tizen)
2 . . . . Apple . . . . . . 26.9 M . . 15.7 % . . . . . . ( 17.0 %) . . . . . . . . . iOS
3 . . . . Huawei . . . . . 16.0 M . . . 9.3 % . . . . . . (  4.6 %) . . . . . . . . . Android, (Tizen)
4 . . . . Sony . . . . . . .  8.8 M . . . 5.1 % . . . . . . (  4.9 %) . . . . . . . . . Android
5 . . . . ZTE . . . . . . . . 8.0 M . . . 4.7 % . . . . . . (   5.2 %) . . . . . . . . . Android, Windows
6 . . . . HTC . . . . . . . . 7.8 M . . . 4.6 % . . . . . . (   5.8 %) . . . . . . . . . Android, Windows
7 . . . . RIM . . . . . . . . 7.4 M . . . 4.3 % . . . . . . (   5.1 %) . . . . . . . . . Blackberry
8 . . . . LG . . . . . . . . . 7.2 M . . . 4.2 % . . . . . . (  4.2 %) . . . . . . . . . Android
9 . . . . Lenovo . . . . . . 7.0 M . . . 4.1 % . . . . . . (  3.9 %) . . . . . . . . . Android
10 . . . Nokia . . . . . . . 6.3 M . . . 3.7 % . . . . . . (   6.7 %) . . . . . . . . Symbian, Windows, MeeGo
Others . . . . . . . . . . . 19.8 M . . 11.6 % . . . . . . (  7.3 %) . . . . . . . . Android, Windows, others, (MeeGo), (Tizen)
TOTAL  . . . . . . . . . 171.4 M
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 14, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed 

So, first, Moto-Moto falls out of the top 10? Wow, goodbuy Google smartphones, eh? And who jumps in to replace it? Lenovo with its LePhone. Didn't you know Lenovo makes smartphones? I'm not surprised, so far they've only sold in China but are now eagerly expanding for example into India. Yes, already a Top 10 sized smartphone maker and yes, this is the same Lenovo from China that bought IBM's branded PC operations some years ago.

Other big news, Nokia tumbles from 3rd place to 10th, and is facing expulsion from the Top 10 as well - there's another hungry Chinese smartphone maker, Yulong, which sells smartphones under the Coolpad brand, who may topple Nokia already in Q4. The top is settled, Samsung rules this race now and Apple is in secure second place. Huawei is jumping ahead of the rest of the pack, and watch Sony, it finally is back to making smartphones profitably and showing aggression on the chart. Now lets look at the smartphone operating systems:

BIGGEST SMARTPHONE OPERATING SYSTEMS BY UNIT SALES IN Q3 2012

Rank . OS Platform . . . . Units . . . . Market share . Was Q2 2012 . . Manufacturers in Top 10
1 . . . . Android . . . . . . . 121.2 M . .  70.7 % . . . . . ( 66.9 %) . . . . . Samsung, Huawei, Sony, ZTE, HTC, LG, Lenovo
2 . . . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . . 26.9 M . .  15.7 % . . . . . ( 17.0 %)  . . . . . Apple
3 . . . . Blackberry . . . . . . 7.4 M . . .. 4.3 % . . . . . (  5.1 %) . . . . . . RIM
4 . . . . bada  . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 M . . .. 3.0 % . . . . . (  2.7 %) . . . . . . Samsung
5 . . . . Symbian  . . . . . . . 3.4 M . . .. 2.0 % . . . . . (  3.3 %) . . . . . . Nokia
6 . . . . Windows Phone . . 3.3 M . . .. 1.9 % . . . . . (   3.0 %) . . . . . . Samsung, HTC, Nokia
others . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4.0 M . . .. 2.3 % . . . . . (   1.1 %)
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . 171.4 M
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 14, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

So yes, the so-called 'third ecosystem' Windows Phone did peak last quarter never coming close to its promise, and is again now in decline. 20 months after Nokia's CEO announced the death of Symbian, that old battered operating system based smartphones still outsell all Windows Phone smartphones, now when Windows Phone is two years of age - and obviously, Samsung's bada outsells both of those. On the top, Google's Android rules the world selling 7 out of every 10 smartphones on the planet. Apple's iOS is the second biggest smartphone OS, with Blackberry solidly in third place, now eagerly awaiting its 'savior' OS upgrade, BB10, with its first smartphones expected in the Spring. Symbian will probably finally fall below Windows Phone now for Christmas sales, but don't hold your breath, Windows Phone is proving a horrid and hated OS by the retail channel. So then lets look at the installed base

INSTALLED BASE OF SMARTPHONES BY OPERATING SYSTEM AS OF Q3 2012

Rank . OS Platform . . . . Units . . . Market share  Was Q2 2012  . Main Manufacturers of current base
1 . . . . Android . . . . . . . 559 M . . . 48 % . . . . . . ( 41 %) . . . . . . Samsung, HTC, Huawei, Sony, Motorola, ZTE, LG, SonyEricsson, Lenovo 
2 . . . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . 217 M . . . 19 % . . . . . . ( 19 %) . . . . . . Apple
3 . . . . Symbian . . . . . . 213 M . . . 18 % . . . . . . ( 25 %) . . . . . . Nokia, Sharp, Panasonic, Fujitsu, Samsung, SonyEricsson
4 . . . . Blackberry  . . . . 109 M . . . . 9 % . . . . . . ( 10 %) . . . . . . RIM
5 . . . . bada . . . . . . . . . . 24 M . . .  2 % . . . . . . (   2 %) . . . . . . Samsung
6 . . . . Windows Phone . . 17 M . . . 1 % . . . . . . (   1 %) . . . . . . Nokia, HTC, Samsung, ZTE
7 . . . . Windows Mobile . . 10 M  . .  1 % . . . . . . (   1 %) . . . . . . HTC, Samsung, LG, SonyEricsson, Palm, Motorola
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 M . . .  1 % . . . . . . (   2 %)
TOTAL Installed Base . 1,166 M smartphones in use at end of Q3 2012
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 14, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

So Symbian is now passed by iOS in installed base globally of smartphones. Other than that, no changes. The total count of smartphones in use is nearly 1.2 Billion and growing fast, we'll soon have more smartphones in use than all kinds of traditional PCs (desktops, laptops, notebooks, netbooks) when tablets are excluded. It will take a couple of quarters further, for smartphones to be more than half of all computing devices used, even when tablets are included in the other side of the equation.

BIGGEST MANUFACTURERS ANALYSIS

So then lets do the biggest manufacturers and their analysis. Again, this is starting to be pretty meaningless, as most big manufactuers now do most of their smartphones on Android, and gradually, most are also becoming profitable, the big 'war' seems to be coming to a close. But lets do this, as usual, in order of size. So Sammy goes first

SAMSUNG - 56.2M smartphones, 32.8% market share - profitable - B+

Samsung grew by 12% from Q2 which is a healthy growth rate. They report very good strong profits out of their handset unit and have now moved their migration rate from dumbphones to smartphones, at past half-point. All good news, all going very well for the Sammy. Except, that they are now 'only' growing at the rate of the industry. So I can't give them an A anymore as a school grade, I am grading Samsung as a B. We now await their first move into Tizen, the next Galaxy flaghship, the Galaxy S4 isn't expected to be released until after Christmas in the first quarter of 2013, so there isn't much excitement for the gift-giving season either. Good job but there were others that did a great job this quarter. Oh, and for those who want to see the split of Samsung's operating system choices, its this:

SAMSUNG SMARTPHONES SOLD IN Q3 BY OPERATING SYSTEM
Samsung on Android . . . . . . . .90%
Samsung on bada  . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Samsung on Windows Phone . . 1%
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

APPLE - 26.9 M smartphones, 15.7% market share - profitable - B

Apple did a good job again in Q3 (remember, we deal in calendar quarters here, not the fiscal quarters of given companies, so Q3 for Apple on our blog is always calendar quarter July to September). The iPhone is generating by far the biggest share of Apple's total profits, the usual decline trend of the once-per-year launch cycle of the new model would say this last quarter is bad, but as Apple cleverly releases its latest model right in the last week of the previous last quarter, this Q3 - that boosts their sales right at the end, and thus Apple showed a modest gain of 3% compared to Q2. Its less than the industry, but Apple's sales pattern as we know, is an annual 'step ladder' model, not a continuous growth curve, so this is not a bad sign. The big step is always the first full sales quarter of the new model, ie the iPhone 4 for Christmas 2012, ie now. And all signs suggest its going to be a big banner year again for Apple. What more can I say, they only use one OS platform. Lets move to strongly surging number three

HUAWEI - 16.0 million smartphones, 9.3% market share - profitable - A+

Huawei is surging strongly, becoming somewhat 'The Samsung of China' compared to the other Chinese smartphone makers, much like Samsung is far ahead of LG and Pantech in Korea. Huawei management said a few weeks ago that they are on target to hit 50 million total smartphone sales this year, so that means they are far outperforming their nearest Chinese rival ZTE which is reporting a lack of progress towards their sales targets. Huawei does all of its smartphones on Android, is profitable, grew 45% from Q2, that is definitely a performance worth an A+

SONY - 8.8 million smartphones, 5.1% market share - profitable - A

Welcome back to the strong team, Sony! Finally Sony is back where we expect the powerful consumer brand to be. It is growing far faster than the industry - grew 19% from Q2 and is reporting healthy profits out of smartphones once they abandoned the unprofitable Windows nonesense and concentrated on Android. The Sony migration from dumbphones to smartphones is nearly complete. They now command 5% market share which is twice what they had two years ago when it was still the SonyEricsson partnership selling smartphones on all platforms including Symbian. I grade Sony for Q3 as a solid A.

ZTE - 8.0 million smartphones, 4.7% market share - profitable - C

ZTE was doing well but now is stumbling a bit, they kept pace in size from Q2 while the industry grew by 11%, so in reality, ZTE is falling behind. ZTE sells primarily on Android but also in tiny numbers on Windows Phone. They are profitable, I grade them a C

HTC - 7.8 million smartphones, 4.6% market share - profitable - D

HTC is moving seriously backwards in the pack. HTC is actually declining in shipment numbers and fell 11% when the industry grew by 11%. They are reporting almost perennially 'worse' profits per quarter, still profits yes, but ever diminishing. HTC does 3% of its smartphones on Windows Phone and 97% on Android. I grade HTC as a D.

RIM - 7.4 million smartphones, 4.3% market share - loss-making - F

RIM three years ago this time was the second biggest smartphone maker in the world with 21% market share, strong growth, and highly profitable, highly desirable enterprise and consumer smartphones. Then they decided to take their eyes off the ball, launched a tablet, wasted all their marketing effort in that disaster, lost their position in the consumer space and badly stumbled in the enterprise space. One year later, they were at 15% market share, and two years later at 9%. Now, three years after their peak, they are at 4% and falling. RIM sales fell 5% in units from Q2 and they report a loss. This is a performance worth an F. The only silver lining, the new BB10 operating system is ready, the reviews of it are great, and the first new Blackberry 10 smartphones are coming in Q1 of 2013. Expect one more quarter of severe pain at Waterloo, then hopefully we see a turnaround in this former powerhouse puwer smartphone maker.

LG - 7.2 million smartphones, 4.2% market share - profitable - B

Hey, LG is finally back! Life is Good, isn't it? They are finally back from the pain of Windows and at purely Android, are finally back to reporting profits again. LG grew 11% from Q2 which is the same pace as the industry. I grade LG as a B.

LENOVO - 7.0 million smartphones, 4.1% market share - profitable - A

And welcome to the Top 10 for the first time ever for Lenovo of China better known for having bought IBM's personal computer business a few years ago. You never saw a Lenovo branded smartphone, which they cleverly branded as the LePhone? That must mean you don't live in China then. Up to now, LePhones have not been sold in other countries than China, but Lenovo has become the third bestselling smartphone brand of China domestic market already behind only Samsung and Huawei. So yes, those 7.0 million smartphones were all sold just in China in Q3 (the world's biggest smartphone market growing faster than most others, already accounting for 3 out of every 10 smartphones sold globally). Now, Lenovo is aiming for world domination, so they are just launching their first international expansion to India. Lenovos are all powered by Android (interesting choice, isn't it, considering how close Lenovo is/was to Microsoft with Windows haha). Yes, welcome to the Top 10. For strong growth from Q2 and profitable business, I grade Lenovo's first appearance on our Bloodbath blog series, at a full A.

NOKIA - 6.3 million smartphones, 3.7% market share - loss-making - F-

Nokia 21 months ago was the world's biggest smartphone maker so huge, it towered over all rivals, bigger than its next two rivals, combined! More than twice the size of its nearest rival at the time, Apple and four times bigger than Samsung. Nokia's smartphone unit just 21 months ago reported record growth and record profits and a Nokia record jump in profitability. Nokia's smartphone unit was growing faster than Apple's on an annualized basis. Yes, that all was voluntarily thrown away by the new CEO. Today under new CEO Stephen Elop's mismanagement and misguided Windows strategy, the Nokia smartphone unit has tumbled to 10th in the Top 10 and may fall out of the Top 10 by Q4 of 2012. Nokia is literally only one quarter the size of Apple and one ninth the size of Samsung, and Nokia's smartphone unit keeps reporting ever more hideously huge losses. Its Windows Phone based 'Lumia' series sales peaked in Q2 and even those are now in decline, never having captured even 3% market share at its peak. Compare that to Nokia's own Symbian which had literally almost 10 times better market performance, literally, 29% market share, when Elop announced this idiotic strategy. So how is the magnificent Windows Phone doing for Nokia now, in Q3? Surely, after a year of selling that 'wonderful' Microsoft based OS, it must do better than the 'obsolete' Symbian by now? This is Nokia's split of smartphone sales in Q3:

NOKIA SMARTPHONES SOLD IN Q3 BY OPERATING SYSTEM
Nokia smartphones on Symbian/Meego . . . . 54%
Nokia smartphones on Windows Phone . . . . 46%
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

Thats pretty pathetic for Windows Phone and Lumia. The new Lumia re-launch is now going on in Q4 with Windows Phone 8 which is supposed to be all that you ever wanted in a smartphone OS - where have we heard that before, again, and again, and again? No, it won't set the world on fire. Windows Phone 8 based smartphones will never even match the peak of the Windows Phone 7 smartphone market share - which was 3% - and these new Lumia smartphones will capture only a fraction of that total. This is a suicidal strategy, every other handset maker who tried Windows as the primary system has died doing it, or bled so much in losses, they abandoned that path. Nokia will be gone unless it shifts now to Android (like every other Windows maker of the past who survived, and far more likely Nokia is already so damaged, they will simply die as a smarpthone maker. As I predicted on 11 February, 2011, the Microsoft 'partnership' will be good for Microsoft but deadly for Nokia, and that in the end, Nokia will become a slave to Microsoft and turn into a low-cost 'box mover' like Dell in personal computers, with tiny margins at best. The glory days of Nokia are far past. And yes, its very likely that the next time I write this quarterly analysis, Nokia will no longer even be listed as a Top 10 maker, because there are hungry fast-growing Chinese Android-powered low-cost smartphone makers - led by Yulong, very hungry to get into the global Top 10. Yulong sells its smartphones under the brand Coolpad. Keep your eyes on them, very possibly will kick Nokia out of the Top 10 as soon as Q4 of 2012. For Nokia's loss-making disasterous Q3 when the industry grew 11% from Q2, Nokia smartphone sales declined .. wait for it .. 38% !!! in just one quarter !!!  This is one of the worst one-quarter performances by any smartphone maker ever seen, unfortunately I can't give them a worse grade than an F-

MOTOROLA (Google) - fell out of Top 10

Yes, just a brief mention, Moto-Moto is soon dead as a Dodo-Dodo.. They fell out of the Top 10 already globally and are shrinking and making losses and Google is firing a lot of their staff globally. They make some nice top-end smartphone models, but in miniscule numbers now.

OPERATING SYSTEMS

So then lets do the same for the operating systems.. And as before, in order of size, first comes Google's own juggernaut, already selling more smartphones and tablets powering this operating system every quarter, than all Windows powered personal computers, tablets and smartphones - combined! Here we go..

ANDROID - 121.2 Million smartphones, 70.7% market share

Android has won the race by now, yes powering 7 out of every 10 smartphone sold globally and more amazingly, over four times more Android smartphones are sold than the second bestselling smartphone OS in the world (iOS on iPhones). There really is no longer a 'race' in this side of the smartphone bloodbath, congratulations Google for winning the biggest battle in tech, ever. And winning it quite decisively, in very short time. Just two years ago, Android was only half the size of Symbian and had just overtaken Apple's iOS and Blackberry for second place. Yes, only a short 27 months ago, in Q2 of 2010, Android was in fourth place among smartphone OS platforms by new sales. Now they command the market and are more than four times bigger than number two and 16 times bigger than Blackberry, and 35 times bigger than Symbian and 37 times bigger than the next 'multi-vendor' OS platform, Microsoft's Windows Phone. Ok, how do those Android manufacturers split up this booty? Here are the market shares internally for Android makers:

ANDROID SMARTPHONES SOLD IN Q3 BY MANUFACTURER
Samsung . . . . . . . . 42%
Huawei . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Sony  . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
HTC . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
LG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Lenovo . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Others . . . . . . . . . . 20% 
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

iOS - 26.9 million smartphones, 15.7% market share

Apple's iOS is doing its steady second place job as the most expensive premium smartphone platform out there, loved by its users with incredible loyalty. The market share growth has slowed to a snail's pace. It was 14% this quarter two years ago, 15% last year this time and now slightly under 16%. I have been calling for Apple to make a global shift, release lower-cost smartphones, and end the one-new-model-per-year cycle. Apple does that with its Macs and iPods and even the iPad has broadened its product range, but with the iPhone, they stick to only one new model per year. They are leaving a lot of money on the table, and perhaps unrecoverable market share, that now is going to Android.

BLACKBERRY - 7.4 million smartphones, 4.3% market share

Yeah, same story here as in the above. Blackberry hurting and have to suffer one more quarter before the new BB10 smartphones arrive. Luckily for RIM, they have enterprise customers as their primary customer segment, who are not as fashion-oriented to run after the latest shiniest device, but make decisions on several-year horizons, and are willing to keep buying some Blackberries for their employees as they await BB10.

bada - 5.2 million smartphones, 3% market share

And Samsung's bada is a very rare animal at most Western markets, perhaps with the exception of France but is doing brisk sales in places like Russia and India. This OS was launched at the same time as the highly visible Windows Phone two years ago, and quietly, targeting low-cost customers, only powered by Samsung brand, where the primary Samsung effort went to Android, this little engine that could has totally bested Microsoft's effort, even where Nokia was brought in to put the best Lumia effort to sell Windows Phone. bada holds a steady 3% market share globally, as Samsung is preparing to do the first launches of its new OS, Tizen, developed with Intel and which is expected to take over or be merged with the bada project. First Tizen smartphones are expected to be out in early 2013 and one of the early prototype handsets is, no surprise here, a port of the Galaxy S3 to Tizen. Tizen also has many global operator/carrier groups supporting it, so if you ever thought what the carriers meant when they said they wanted a new platform to rival Android and iOS, they were not talking about Windows, they were talking about Tizen. So who are those operators supporting Tizen then? Telefonica, Sprint, Vodafone, Orange, NTT DoCoMo, SK Telecom.. Plus manufacturers part of Tizen alliance include Panasonic, NEC and Huawei. Do not dismiss this challenger for next year...

SYMBIAN - 3.4 million smartphones, 2.0% market share

Nokia's Symbian is now really on its last legs. The last new smarpthone we saw on it was the 808 Pureview, and even as Nokia fumbled that launch, not producing enough of the highly popular and highly demanded (really? Yes, so said Nokia, they couldn't match demand and severely underestimated its sales when it launched) super cameraphone. But that time is now over, Symbian sales fell 32% just from Q2 and with only obsolete devices for the Christmas market, expect Symbian sales to plummet now. Obviously all last remaining partners of Symbian had quit this OS and what remains are truly only Nokia branded sales.

WINDOWS PHONE - 3.3 million smartphones, 1.9% market share

Windows Phone had its peak share just hitting 3% one quarter ago, but then Microsoft announced that none of the current phones can be upgrade to Windows Phone 8, and just like all major analysts suggested, the sales would collapse as they did. Windows Phone sales fell 28% in just one quarter (where that announcement came within that quarter, so we have not even seen a full quarter's effect yet). Now Microsoft is rolling out Windows Phone 8, with ever less new handset manufacturers sticking with Microsoft, each doing ever less actual devices and ever less actual markets. Its essentially only Nokia left with Microsoft. This is the split of Windows Phone smartphone sales in Q3:

WINDOWS PHONE SMARTPHONES SOLD IN Q3 BY MANUFACTURER
Nokia . . . . . . . . . . . 88%
Samsung . . . . . . . . . 5%
HTC . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Others . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

Windows Phone 8 will now include full Skype integration. Do you think that will thrill the carriers/operators into fully supporting WP8 if they were lukewarm to WP7 ? Remember what Nokia's CEO Stephen Elop said about do carriers love Skype? He said, and I quote "feedback from the operators is, that they don't like Skype, of course." Where did Stephen Elop utter that statement? To the Nokia shareholders meeting this Spring! That was after they had seen Lumia with Windows Phone 7 - that did not have Skype pre-installed - and before the carriers had been given the chance to see the new Lumia which comes with Windows Phone 8, fully integrating Skype. And yes, Microsoft brings that full Skype integration to the destktop on Windows 8 etc. A billion new competitors to the main profit engine and revenue source for carriers, voice traffic (especially international voice traffic) and messaging. No wonder the carriers hate Skype. Do not think Windows Phone 8 can outperform Windows Phone 7. The carriers not just hate Skype, they hate Microsoft for owning Skype and funding their biggest threat to the very financial survival of the telecoms operators/carriers. 

MEEGO - in hybernation

I'll just mention briefly MeeGo. It has emerged that Nokia had 3 MeeGo devices ready to sell last year, only relased one for sale, the highly-praised and beloved N9, and manufactured its sister device, the N950, in tiny numbers but didn't sell that. I speculated on this blog, based on my analysis of some of Nokia's strong markets like China and Nokia statements (or lack thereof) about MeeGo and N9 performance, that in the first two quarters when both Lumia series on Windows Phone, and the sole N9 on MeeGo, the MeeGo unit sales actually exceeded all of Windows Phone. Well, that is water under the bridge. We never got a formal word from Nokia on the specific numbers of MeeGo sales. And many thought MeeGo was over, until.. a small start-up in Finland, formed out of ex-Nokia ex-MeeGo people, called Jolla, had launched. Jolla is expected to introduce its first handset still this year, and start to sell smartphones powered my MeeGo (or likely, a further developed version of that operating system) soon. Lets not forget MeeGo. But lets say, it is in hybernation. But if you loved the N9 or N950, just imagine what the next MeeGo device could have been. We may well see that, in the first Jolla device soon...
 
Ok, that should be the analysis of Q3, in the Electric Jamboree. We will return in early February 2013 for the Q4 results and full-year 2012 results as per usual. Also at that time, we can find out who won the reader contest to guess what will be Windows Phone market share now this Q4 of 2012. If you wanted earlier numbers, Q2 of 2012 is here. Meanwhile, enjoy the stats, and remember all this data is free to be shared

(also for those who may want to order my statistical volume on the handset industry, the ebook, TomiAhonen Phone Book 2012 - please note, that due to Hurricane Sandy, my webhost on Manhattan's 14th street is currently still fighting the aftermath of the flood, so my ebusiness site, and my primary website, and my email are all currently not operational - if you desperately want the Phone Book 2012, please send me an email to my temporary email address ttahonen at yahoo dot com and put in your email header 'Phone Book' and I'll get back to you with how to order, etc. I hope to get the website and ebooks and email all back soon)
 

Comments

[cycnus]

@John Waclawsky

I wonder how much money astroturfer got for every post on this blog.
This blog is really tough. :)

[Lasko]

Looks like Windows 8 isn't the burner either.

http://winsupersite.com/windows-8/windows-8-sales-well-below-projections-plenty-blame-go-around

But we all know, the OEMs are to blame, the economy is to blame, Sinofsky is to blame, Intel is to blame ... blah blah ... and wait! Thanks to some commenters we know! Google is to blame! Google is evil!

[RyanZA]

@Lasko

Google actually is to blame - their strategy of giving away Android/Chrome/Search etc is doing a good job of killing off Microsoft's OS monopoly. Which is the obvious counter to Baron95's point above. What has Android/Chrome done to help Google? There you go... haha. Google is one of the few enterprises still planning for time periods greater than the next 2 quarters... Microsoft is full of people like Baron95 (haha, just a hint of who might be paying him...?) - if it doesn't make profit in the first quarter then throw it away!

MS needs to control their urge to get into every market they can find. Did Google release a desktop OS? Of course not - they would not be able to properly compete with entrenched Microsoft. Microsoft needs to get out of the mindset of shuffling their best engineers around to doomed projects like Bing or Windows Phone. They need to jump on areas where there is no clear winner yet - Kinect powered virtual glasses that can detect people? At least they have a tech advantage with kinect in that area.

[Lasko]

I actually quite like Baron95. His comments on how good Microsoft and Windows Phone is for developers and the advantages of Windows Phone 8 and why it is the third ecosystem made me laugh for days ;-)

It doesn't matter if he is getting paid for it or not (I don't think so, the motivation is morbid fanboism), because basically it is over.

Windows 8 is failing (we all know what a Ballmer'esque 'modest' means, PC market has shrunk 10% - 15% despite the launch of Windows 8, experts like Nielsen calling it crap, big names like newell from Valve or Pardo from Blizzard mobilize against), Windows Phone 8 is failing (the internet is full of reports now that it is broken, constantly locking up and rebooting with Microsoft having no idea why or fix in the pipeline, return rates skyrocket making resellers think twice), Surface is failing (4 millions have been sold so far - comparison: iP5 launch day 5 million, iPM launch weekend 3 million, not to speak of kindles and other android tablets - and, according to insiders, also a high rate of return), Server market is collapsing (Windows down from 70% to 30% in just three years), the Office segment is in a increasingly thight corner due to replacements like Google Services as the Console market is due to mobile devices like iPad and alike. The internal management is on bad terms and is lead by the worst CEO in history ((c) Forbes).

One might think of Demerjian whatever he wants to think, but his analysis is crystal clear. The cage Microsoft has built for the last three deacdes to lock their customers in is also a cage which keeps you out once you've left. And people are leaving, massively.

Microsoft will go down. Will it vanish? No. Will it reduce to a size where it is finally no longer a burden to the industry? Yes. And that's a good thing.

[chunky necklace beads]

Hey tur! Vai jūs zināt, ja viņi dara kādi spraudņi, lai aizsargātu pret hakeriem? Es esmu kinda paranojas par zaudēt visu, ko esmu strādājis smagi. Jebkurš padomus? Hey tur! Vai jūs zināt, ja viņi dara kādi spraudņi, lai aizsargātu pret hakeriem? Es esmu kinda paranojas par zaudēt visu, ko esmu strādājis smagi. Jebkurš padomus?

[cycnus]

@RyanZa

Actually,
Google were trying to enter the 'Desktop' area too.
But not ordinary desktop....

in the phone area, there were smartphone (android, symbian, iOS, WP) and dumbphone (S40, BB pre-10).

Now, Google creating the same thing in Desktop area.... it's called ChromeOS with 2 product ChromeBook & ChromeBox.

It's not a desktop like ordinary desktop, it's a featureDesktop (a.l.a featurephone).
... http://www.google.com/intl/en/chrome/devices/
(btw, you were seeing my next 'desktop'.... lol)

[RyanZA]

@cycnus

Yeah, but those aren't direct competitors. ChromeOS is for institutions that require 'throw away' style hardware for their special intranet browser based apps. It doesn't try to fight Microsoft directly in their area of strength (desktop), and rather is trying to open a new niche for special terminal-like devices (more akin to old mainframe style computing).

If Google was Microsoft, they would have launched a Google Doors that was a desktop linux OS similar to Ubuntu. And they would have launched a Google Game console. Maybe made a software publishing business for games and random software...

In short, Google only launches products in areas where there is a lack of competition, while Microsoft launches products as soon as there is competition.

[cycnus]

@RyanZA

the ChromeOS hardware is the same hardware as the Android device...
If Google want to put android in it, it would require very little effort.

[cycnus]

We talk a lot how Windows CE failed, Windows WM failed, Windows 7 failed, Windows 8 failed...

Remember Kin?? (and also Bob?)
http://techcrunch.com/2012/11/19/internal-videos-show-microsoft-released-its-kin-phones-knowing-they-sucked/
That article along with the youtube video wired had really show that Microsoft brand is (forgive my language) worth shit.
http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2012/11/unreleased-internal-microsoft-videos-show-why-kin-crashed-and-burned/

[cycnus]

Oprah is also astroturfers... LOL...
http://thenextweb.com/shareables/2012/11/19/oprah-plugs-the-surface-on-twitter-uses-an-ipad-to-do-so/

She really sold her name, and now her name is ruined...!!!

[John Waclawsky]

@cycnus ...That's pretty funny tweeting how wonderful the Surface tablet is from an iPAD. What a bunch of marketing morons LOL

[John Waclawsky]

I just spotted a Microsoft talking point against Google. The tired old "fragmentation" nonsense. Anyone who mentions it is just spreading Microsoft FUD and doesn't have a clue what it really means.

[John Waclawsky]

Again we see the astroturfers talking to each other. Of course the Microsoft talking points are always inserted somewhere in the hopelessly meaningless discussion. Truly pathetic and now becoming comical

[Tomasz R]

For Microsoft as the producer of applications the lack of WP8 market share means reevaluation of its whole strategy. That now is based on producing application software for only one platform - Windows. As of now it looked like a double win:
- Application divisions saved money on producing applications only for Windows, rather than spending them on multiplatform, while not loosing much marketshare due to lack of multiplatform support - as Windows got over 90% of the market.
- Windows division got a boost from exclusive Microsoft titles, not available on other platforms, that supported Windows monopoly.

Right now, with Windows being a minor player in tablets and phones there just have to some push from application divisions to allow them to provide their software for iOS and Android.

Most likely blocked by the CEO and the board probably still believing in Windows succes in phones and tablets, thus allowing them to keep current Windows-based strategy forever.

[Earendil Star]

Never underestimate Microsoft.

Meanwhile, at Nokia, other opportunities have been squandered...:

http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2012/11/hands-on-nokia-here-maps-app/

Come on, the CEO is a former softie, but software still sucks? Maybe that's no coincidence...

On payments by MS to Nokia, it is certainly true that MS money transited through Nokia.
Yet, that money was for PROMOTING WP. It did not stop at Nokia.

Remember, THT Elop loves to reiterate that his aim is to have WP becoming the third platform in mobile. Weirdly, what happens to Nokia is of NO interest to him.

So, if MS is paying money for WP promotion through Nokia, that is an interesting thing, but should NOT be considered as payment TO Nokia.

In this sense I believe MS has paid Nokia absolutely nothing for what they have been gaining and achieveng

[Tester]

@Baron95:

Past profits aren't worth anything. You only have to look as far as Nokia for proof. End of 2010 they were increasing profits and look how hard they tanked.

Who is to say that the same won't happen to Microsoft?

Just with Nokia there's ample evidence that their business model is reaching the end of its lifespan. The signs are all there but hidden in the good profits they still make.

On the other hand Google is investing in the infrastructure of the future. It may not yet pay off right now but who knows how the computer landscape will look in 5 years? I'm sure it'll be a lot different than it is today.

Companies who plan their strategies according to the next quarterly report will inevitably fail at some point because there's no long term planning and they miss the trend.

Long term planning means risk taking, it also means that some strategies will turn out to be less effective than anticipated but going the route of least resistance is a certain road to death. Again, watch Nokia. They rested on their past Symbian laurels until it was too late to turn the ship around. So they jumped off - onto an old and also doomed old rustbucket.

You make the age-old mistake to judge a business decision by immediate financial turnout. Yes, sure, that's what the shareholders interested in the dividends might want, but this attitude is one of the root causes of economic problems that plague the western world these days.

So, if I had to invest some money today, I'd invest in Google.

- Apple is overpriced already, therefore too risky.
- Microsoft will face some serious problems in the near future and their attitude - in particular their braindead insistence on forcing Desktop Windows users to use Metro - clearly shows that they are unable to change.

- Google on the other hand takes risks, they are trying new things. They prepare for the future - a future without a monopolist who can shove their arrogance down their customers' throats. It's just too bad that they haven't done a real desktop OS yet. Now that could outright kill Microsoft. Well, maybe they do when MS is showing the first cracks in the shell...

[cycnus]

Microsoft vs. Google

My thought...

As astrosurfers many time write in here that Google = Bad, Microsoft = Future, I would like to write about what I think the whole nine yard that start this all.

Back when Google still young, Microsoft demonstrate that Microsoft is the real 666. Microsoft destroy Netscape in 1 simple step... by integrating the internet explorer into Windows. Google know that their future is so fragile, anytime that microsoft wanna play dirty, they will be gone. Because Netscape is not the only proof that Microsoft willing to play dirty. Back in the day of DOS, Microsoft sabotage DR-DOS, by including a 'string search' in Windows. If Windows found that the DOS were DR-DOS, it would give problem. This is proof in court that by simply changing the string from DR-DOS into MS-DOS, it would run windows better than MS-DOS did. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DR-DOS#Competition_from_Microsoft)

some crazy ex. Having Bing (formerly MSN search) as default in Internet explorer... and when user change into Google, Microsot launch an update an change all default search into Bing again and again...

Other than that,
Google already paying large sum amount of money to Opera, Mozilla, and also apple for displaying google as the default search engine...

So,
Why not securing the future by building something that can't be sabotage by Microsoft?

and now, microsoft feel threaten by this google gesture and also the open source movement linux, symbian, etc. and microsoft launch the biggest pre-emptive strike against all non-microsoft beside apple.

Some astroturfer might call me school boy, etc. I don't really care. I already happy that Microsoft reap what they sow. WP7 failed, WP8 also fail, Surface fail.

[elm70]

@cycnus

Nice post ... I did not know the story of DR-DOS and windows.

So Google moto "don't be evil" ... it is really dedicated to Micro&Soft ;-)

In my view I see Windows RT to fail with the useless and expensive surface tablet, then it will be Windows Phone to die ... then Windows, and finally Office.

Microsoft has 60B cash so it will be still around for years, I expect more patristics actions from Microsoft, like the astrotruffles and further destructions of ex competitors (like they did with Nokia) .. anyhow still Bill Gates is selling billions of stocks every 3 months ... even is co-founder is shorting Microsoft LOL ... this company is doom ;-)

Open source OS, is going to be the future, with convergence-replacement into smart-phone tablet ... the PC are history, so will be Microsoft.

Unlike Commodore, nobody will be missing Microsoft once it will be gone ;-)

Tchuss

e_lm_70

ps: About school boys and margin ... who cares of margin in % ... with positive margin, it is better to maximize the amount of profit not the % margin ... as well ... better have slim margin in % and a sustainable business, then a huge margin in % and non sustainable business (like apple: soon they will have to review their strategy ... but till they can make innovation they can keep huge margin)

[cycnus]

@elm70

DR-DOS is not the only victim of Microsoft in Desktop OS wars. Microsoft was the software company that got the outsourcing job for OS/2 (The 2nd OS, the OS after the DOS). Microsoft stab IBM from the back with Windows...

Microsoft also kill the Microsoft Office competitor like Word Perfect, Lotus, etc by offering OEM market a low price for bundling MS Windows + MS Office.

but, so far, from all the anti-competitive way of doing business of Microsoft... sending a trojan horse to nokia is the biggest sin of all. It's a sign that Microsoft will do anything... I literally mean ANYTHING AT ALL COST.

[Felipeko]

@Baron95 Google's gross margins have been increasing every quarter and just declined now because of Motorola's business (every hardware business has lower margins) got incorporated in.