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November 14, 2012




That's the US, not the whole world. And to me one user is only one potential customer. Even if among those 'tens of thousands of cheap Android users in poor countries' is a measly 0.1% who buy my app they are still worth 10x more to me than that one 'affluent' iPhone user.

And please stop pretending that all Android has to offer is 'cheap phones for developing countries'. Now who is buying all those Galaxy 3's and Galaxy Notes? Certainly not some poor fellow from Africa and Asia.

These phones are popular, too. What you seem to ignore is that the technological gap between iOS and Android has significantly narrowed, if not completely vanished in the last year. So, why do you think that the tides can't turn? What if the next Android superphone so much outclasses Apple that users are actually switching? What if Apple without Steve Jobs is losing momentum? I think it's naive to assume that the company will go on with the same momentum as it has been in the last 5 years forever. They are also prone to mistakes and those may happen quicker than anyone might think. And despite supposed user satisfaction, the iPhone 5 is not the device it should have been. It's no longer the king of the hill technologically. Sure, it's right at the top but unlike past models that stood high above the entire competition this is no longer the case. So, assuming that things will continue as they were is not safe if you ask me.

>> At the same time there are lots of Android users converting to iPhone, with virtually no movement the other way.

[citation needed], preferably from a neutral source. Yes, I can find all those FUD reports about that topic but they all have 2 things in common:
a) they are heavily biased towards Apple
b) they seem only to concern the US market, which - as I already said several times - is an anomaly that doesn't seem to work like in other countries.


@Baron95, the Apple Astroturfer:

How much does Apple pay you to post this shit?

Why does Apple get these markets by default according to your 'analysis'? Why didn't they even conquer Europe wholesale? Several important countries like Germany and Austria are dominated by Android without any of your 'limiting factors' in place.

I think it's time to wake up. Apple is in the slow process of losing dominance. Right now their products are considered 'cool' which among the rich and lazy equates to 'must have' status, hence those insane US numbers.

Let's wait and see what's supposed to be 'cool' in 2 years. Maybe even Blackberry? I have no idea. But one thing is certain. If 'cool' changes from iPhone to something else, the game will be over. It may not happen next year, most likely not even 2014, but it will inevitably happen.


@Duke (or shall I say John Waclawsky):

I don't know what your issue is but what does Baron have to do with Microsoft. He's certainly an Apple astroturfer but Microsoft...? Nah.

You on the other hand are merely a broken record. What's the point of repeating the same statement for the n-th time without backing it with anything.

Who are you astroturfing for? Google maybe?
Ok, here's some food for thought: You are actually a Microsoft mole sent with the task to make MS's opponents look like total idiots. You certainly act like one.



With all the respect to you opinions (I like many of them) and in here with all the respect to Verizon, this example you gave went a bit wrong.

"For example, there are more LTE subscribers in the US, than in all the rest of the world combined. In fact, there are more LTE subscribers in just one US operator (Verizon) than LTE users outside the US in all the other operators in the world combined."

Verizon indeed is the largest in terms of LTE subs base and US is leading the race as a country, with CLOSE to half of LTE subs (not MORE than half) of entire World total. Secondly, Verizon's 16 M LTE subs (about 14% of their total subs base) is far from "all the others outside US combined". Two countries in APAC give you a total of 21 M and world total is 50 M.

This is not that important, you know that. My point is that it's not so long ago when US had 95% of LTE subs share and this was mostly due to where US came from - technologies that desparately needed upgrades. Unlike in many other regions in the World, unlike especially in Europe where HSPA networks are damn good.

This as an example tells me that US in on driver's seat not only due to leadership in technology deployment speed, but due to.... well, being US where smartphone business (incl. revenues op's generate on data) seems to be looked at as an example that others follow. And that's fair. And that's important for all industry stake holders.



>> Apple ecosystem lock

Right. That's a big problem. However, who is to say that the competitors don't manage to create something better?

Who says that the ecosystem lock will let users stick to inferior products eventually?

Right now Apple truly has a stranglehold over all those pitiful iSlaves. But there's absolutely no guarantee that this will last forever.

What if those people get fed up by Apple becoming complacent and starts pissing of their customers because they think they can do anything they want?

What if Apple is no longer 'cool', as I said before? There's enough people who despise Apple and their business methods. These people would never, ever buy an iPhone. Now, what if the Apple ecosystem becomes more of a burden than an asset because you can NOT reach everybody anymore and can NOT easily share data with them due to the vendor lock-in? And this group is definitely reaching critical mass. So, instead of something like iMessage, users may switch to a more open platform by mere necessity.
A locked ecosystem may be nice as long as you can reach everyone, but the moment you can't it will become a problem and lose its appeal.

Again, what if some super-phone comes along that wasn't manufactured by Apple? What if this becomes an absolute 'must-have' item due to unprecedented features? Yes, people would be locked out of Apple's ecosystem but if the thing is 'must-have' to be cool the only party getting damaged by such an event would be Apple because they'd get locked out of the market themselves

Or what if some politicians finally wake up? What if they change the law prohibiting such vendor-locking business models? They are a huge threat to a free market and I think it's a shame that they let companies like Apple and Amazon destroy entire markets this way.

I know, all just hypotheses. What I want to say is that nobody can predict the future. Nobody can say when the next disruptive technology comes along that takes Apple by surprise or that an external event disrupts their business.
They may go on for another 5 years but that's in no way a safe bet - especially with Steve Jobs gone.


Repeating the same 6 words in capital letters ad infinitum does not make them any more valid than if you just kept silent. Your post are ridiculous.



Fair enough, I respect your opinion.

I have sold LTE networks to close to 100 operators, including Verizon, SKT, KT, LGU+, KDDI, DoCoMo, Softbank and few others.

I know pretty well what's the difference between subscription and subscriber.

But whatever, this is what these blogs are for - exchanging opinions, right?


Come on!

Baron95's action are textbook astroturfing.

It all sounds reasonable and is very eloquently stated but in the end it boils down to a very simple tactic:

- present some 'facts' but leave out the bits that don't suit your agenda.
- 'analyze' these skewed information
- come to the conclusion that there's no possible way that any other company than the one you are promoting may ever benefit from the outlined scenario.


Wise words about the politicians. I find it odd that at least in Europe nobody is taking action over Apple and Amazon. They fine Microsoft record amounts for not offering a choice of web browser, which is comparatively harmless to what these 2 companies have been building for years.


There's a Spanish idiom, in English literally "to throw the stone and hide the hand".
and Microsoft really good at it see this youtube:
(Microsoft demonstrate how the astroturfer against them).

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I want to quote "管它黑貓白貓,會抓老鼠的就是好貓" which translate into "It doesn't matter whether a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice" --- It doesn't matter if it's a prepaid or post paid, as long as it's bring revenue!!!


About Apple lock-in Ecosystem. Yes, Baron95 is right. The lock-in ecosystem is REAL. Right now, lots of American were held hostage by Apple. They already spending lots of $$$ in Apple ecosystem, therefore, don't want to change. It's the same situation in Indonesia. Blackberry have lock-in the ecosystem (BBM).

BUT, BB, although manage to lock in the ecosystem in the US were broken by Apple. Because what's app can bridge Apple and BB and Symbian and WM user. The point I want to make here is, IF some other technology/ecosystem is better and would ease the transition, apple user might switch ecosystem.

And this bring me into android and WP ecosystem. First, WP. Microsoft trying to replicate Apple, they try to lock in the user in WP ecosystem.

BUT, android, unlike WP/Apple, their ecosystem is more open. Google don't lock the user in android ecosystem, Google give their user the freedom to choose between various OS such as Android, iOS, symbian (before the burning platform memo), BB (before it's doom). and I don't need to convert my friend from (i.e) iOS into android to be able to have (both of us) to use this ecosystem.

So, my question would be, would you buy a movie or music from Google Play if you can use it in your android or iphone or BB10 or Bada or Tizen or Sailfish or WP8? or you would buy it from iTunes and got locked with iphone forever? So, Google ecosystem might ease iphone user to switch to any platform with ease. This is why Steve Wozniak worried that iTunes lock in might hurt apple, and ask apple to port iTunes for Android.

PS: right now only some of Google service / ecosystem were cross platform. For example, Google Mail, Google sync (for sync address book), Google drive, Google plus..... At least that's what I'm aware of.


quote "Android user convert into iOS, but not the other way around?"
I would like to present my

FACT #1: Hong Kong:
iphone user fall from 59.51% (Feb 2011) into 32.64% (Nov 2012),
while android user rise from 12.44% into 60.66%

FACT #2: Singapore:
iphone manage to have almost 72% user (Jan 2012) but fall to 52.97% (Nov 2012)
while android user rise almost twice from 20.38% to 40.18% in the same time period
(please note that Statcounter is a web hit, so that's mean in the same time period Android really outsell iphone to be able to double of user in only 10 month)

FACT #3: France:
iphone fall from 68.41% to 49.98%
While android rise from 11.25% into 40.25%

I must mention here that, there were other place that iphone rise and android fall. BUT it just not right to say that iphone is God phone. That's too isheep.


Lock in works only for existing users, not new users. In a rapidly growing market new users will outgrow locked in users. Android outgrew iPhone because more first time buyers chose Android. Not because iPhone users switched to Android.

With 6 billion people still in need of a Smartphone, any contestant can still outgrow anyone else. However, both Apple and MS target well off people. Only Android really targets the poorest 6 billion people. As it looks now, the lower 6 billion people will go to Android. Half of the rich billion is already sold (mostly to Android). This leaves around 500M for the rest to fight about.

That is why I do not believe MS WinPhone has a chance.

Tomasz R.

A note about Microsoft: Osborning programming platforms seems to be a new custom for them. Not only in smartphones, but on their critical classic operating systems.

"Microsoft is also planning a move that may shock and upset some developers -- it will reportedly release a new version of its SDK for Windows Blue, and at that point will stop accepting Windows Store apps built on the old Windows 8 SDK. Again, this choice is a calculated tactic on Microsoft's part to push developers and users to embrace the new platform."

This is not a first time they do this. Last time it was about WPF programming platform.

"The consequences of declaring that WPF is dead"



If I was developing stuff for the Windows Store my immediate reaction would be like 'screw 'em' and shelve the projects immediately.

It looks like developing desktop applications that don't depend on their approval are the safer route to go. Not quite what they'd like to see, though.



>> iPhone 5 users, because of their disproportionally greater disposable income tend to be the ones disproportionally enjoying and driving the true mobile pocket computing vision. That is what makes them desirable and trend setting.

That line could come right out of some Apple ad. Maybe it is?

You persistently continue to disregard users of high end Android phones in your 'analyses'. Are those less valuable than Apple just because to refuse to get locked in? You sure make it sound so.


Android probably has the most apps of any smart phone os.
And why am I making such a lucid claim? Well that's due to the fact that there are litterally thousands of alternative app stores for android + you can actually develop your own apps on android, (yes on your phone) just by using PHP. Please correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think that any other OS supports this feature.


It seems to me that Apple iphone user were not what microsoft astroturfer said (more valueable).


You didn't mention the FirefoxOS that will be launched soon, first by Telefonica in the South America markets. Now we have three new competitor for the next year, the TizenOS, JollaOS and FrefoxOS - for me BB10 is borning dead. Let's see if Google will maintain the dominance with Android or we will start see the system loose some market shares.


I really want to see the raw data for these numbers. So many websites are re-printing this source, and the reference for the data is:

"TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 14, 2012 from vendor data and other sources"

Is it possible this data has been aggregated incorrectly? Also, are these numbers accurately reflecting new users vs. users that are upgrading?

V-pills Güvenilir mi

Yes but google is poised to be the winner of this smartphone battle. I see more and more carrier blowback to the huge iphone subsidies. Iphone will probably retain its lead in US, but in the rest of world, battered by recession and by a consumer profile markedly different from the ever spending US consumer profile, they will switch over completely to android which will provide everything iOS does, but at a lower cost and sometimes android will even provide better services for free!

Gabriella Tuck

There will be no more netbooks for this year. Two giant companies told Yahoo that they will no longer sell netbooks because Phablets will be the trend for this year.

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