Smartphones Q3 Final Numbers, Top 10 biggest manufacturers, operating systems, installed base etc

So its that time of the year. We're in the Smartphone Bloodbath wars, Year Three: Digital Jamboree. Its Q3. We now have all four big analyst houses who have reported their total market size numbers (IDC, Gartner, Strategy Analytics and Canalys) and as I always do, I use their average as my 'official total' and then fit the best possible fit, of the biggest manufacturers, operating systems etc to get the Top 10 market shares. I also report on the installed base, and for every quarter, I report individually for the manufacturers, how I think they're doing in the market share wars. So lets start with the top numbers

TEN BIGGEST SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS BY UNIT SALES IN Q3 2012

Rank . Maker . . . . . . Units . . . Market Share . Was in Q2 of 2012 . . OS supported (coming)
1 . . . . Samsung  . . . 56.2 M . . 32.8 % . . . . . .( 32.9 %) . . . . . . . . . Android, bada, Windows, (Tizen)
2 . . . . Apple . . . . . . 26.9 M . . 15.7 % . . . . . . ( 17.0 %) . . . . . . . . . iOS
3 . . . . Huawei . . . . . 16.0 M . . . 9.3 % . . . . . . (  4.6 %) . . . . . . . . . Android, (Tizen)
4 . . . . Sony . . . . . . .  8.8 M . . . 5.1 % . . . . . . (  4.9 %) . . . . . . . . . Android
5 . . . . ZTE . . . . . . . . 8.0 M . . . 4.7 % . . . . . . (   5.2 %) . . . . . . . . . Android, Windows
6 . . . . HTC . . . . . . . . 7.8 M . . . 4.6 % . . . . . . (   5.8 %) . . . . . . . . . Android, Windows
7 . . . . RIM . . . . . . . . 7.4 M . . . 4.3 % . . . . . . (   5.1 %) . . . . . . . . . Blackberry
8 . . . . LG . . . . . . . . . 7.2 M . . . 4.2 % . . . . . . (  4.2 %) . . . . . . . . . Android
9 . . . . Lenovo . . . . . . 7.0 M . . . 4.1 % . . . . . . (  3.9 %) . . . . . . . . . Android
10 . . . Nokia . . . . . . . 6.3 M . . . 3.7 % . . . . . . (   6.7 %) . . . . . . . . Symbian, Windows, MeeGo
Others . . . . . . . . . . . 19.8 M . . 11.6 % . . . . . . (  7.3 %) . . . . . . . . Android, Windows, others, (MeeGo), (Tizen)
TOTAL  . . . . . . . . . 171.4 M
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 14, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed 

So, first, Moto-Moto falls out of the top 10? Wow, goodbuy Google smartphones, eh? And who jumps in to replace it? Lenovo with its LePhone. Didn't you know Lenovo makes smartphones? I'm not surprised, so far they've only sold in China but are now eagerly expanding for example into India. Yes, already a Top 10 sized smartphone maker and yes, this is the same Lenovo from China that bought IBM's branded PC operations some years ago.

Other big news, Nokia tumbles from 3rd place to 10th, and is facing expulsion from the Top 10 as well - there's another hungry Chinese smartphone maker, Yulong, which sells smartphones under the Coolpad brand, who may topple Nokia already in Q4. The top is settled, Samsung rules this race now and Apple is in secure second place. Huawei is jumping ahead of the rest of the pack, and watch Sony, it finally is back to making smartphones profitably and showing aggression on the chart. Now lets look at the smartphone operating systems:

BIGGEST SMARTPHONE OPERATING SYSTEMS BY UNIT SALES IN Q3 2012

Rank . OS Platform . . . . Units . . . . Market share . Was Q2 2012 . . Manufacturers in Top 10
1 . . . . Android . . . . . . . 121.2 M . .  70.7 % . . . . . ( 66.9 %) . . . . . Samsung, Huawei, Sony, ZTE, HTC, LG, Lenovo
2 . . . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . . 26.9 M . .  15.7 % . . . . . ( 17.0 %)  . . . . . Apple
3 . . . . Blackberry . . . . . . 7.4 M . . .. 4.3 % . . . . . (  5.1 %) . . . . . . RIM
4 . . . . bada  . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 M . . .. 3.0 % . . . . . (  2.7 %) . . . . . . Samsung
5 . . . . Symbian  . . . . . . . 3.4 M . . .. 2.0 % . . . . . (  3.3 %) . . . . . . Nokia
6 . . . . Windows Phone . . 3.3 M . . .. 1.9 % . . . . . (   3.0 %) . . . . . . Samsung, HTC, Nokia
others . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4.0 M . . .. 2.3 % . . . . . (   1.1 %)
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . 171.4 M
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 14, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

So yes, the so-called 'third ecosystem' Windows Phone did peak last quarter never coming close to its promise, and is again now in decline. 20 months after Nokia's CEO announced the death of Symbian, that old battered operating system based smartphones still outsell all Windows Phone smartphones, now when Windows Phone is two years of age - and obviously, Samsung's bada outsells both of those. On the top, Google's Android rules the world selling 7 out of every 10 smartphones on the planet. Apple's iOS is the second biggest smartphone OS, with Blackberry solidly in third place, now eagerly awaiting its 'savior' OS upgrade, BB10, with its first smartphones expected in the Spring. Symbian will probably finally fall below Windows Phone now for Christmas sales, but don't hold your breath, Windows Phone is proving a horrid and hated OS by the retail channel. So then lets look at the installed base

INSTALLED BASE OF SMARTPHONES BY OPERATING SYSTEM AS OF Q3 2012

Rank . OS Platform . . . . Units . . . Market share  Was Q2 2012  . Main Manufacturers of current base
1 . . . . Android . . . . . . . 559 M . . . 48 % . . . . . . ( 41 %) . . . . . . Samsung, HTC, Huawei, Sony, Motorola, ZTE, LG, SonyEricsson, Lenovo 
2 . . . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . 217 M . . . 19 % . . . . . . ( 19 %) . . . . . . Apple
3 . . . . Symbian . . . . . . 213 M . . . 18 % . . . . . . ( 25 %) . . . . . . Nokia, Sharp, Panasonic, Fujitsu, Samsung, SonyEricsson
4 . . . . Blackberry  . . . . 109 M . . . . 9 % . . . . . . ( 10 %) . . . . . . RIM
5 . . . . bada . . . . . . . . . . 24 M . . .  2 % . . . . . . (   2 %) . . . . . . Samsung
6 . . . . Windows Phone . . 17 M . . . 1 % . . . . . . (   1 %) . . . . . . Nokia, HTC, Samsung, ZTE
7 . . . . Windows Mobile . . 10 M  . .  1 % . . . . . . (   1 %) . . . . . . HTC, Samsung, LG, SonyEricsson, Palm, Motorola
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 M . . .  1 % . . . . . . (   2 %)
TOTAL Installed Base . 1,166 M smartphones in use at end of Q3 2012
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 14, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

So Symbian is now passed by iOS in installed base globally of smartphones. Other than that, no changes. The total count of smartphones in use is nearly 1.2 Billion and growing fast, we'll soon have more smartphones in use than all kinds of traditional PCs (desktops, laptops, notebooks, netbooks) when tablets are excluded. It will take a couple of quarters further, for smartphones to be more than half of all computing devices used, even when tablets are included in the other side of the equation.

BIGGEST MANUFACTURERS ANALYSIS

So then lets do the biggest manufacturers and their analysis. Again, this is starting to be pretty meaningless, as most big manufactuers now do most of their smartphones on Android, and gradually, most are also becoming profitable, the big 'war' seems to be coming to a close. But lets do this, as usual, in order of size. So Sammy goes first

SAMSUNG - 56.2M smartphones, 32.8% market share - profitable - B+

Samsung grew by 12% from Q2 which is a healthy growth rate. They report very good strong profits out of their handset unit and have now moved their migration rate from dumbphones to smartphones, at past half-point. All good news, all going very well for the Sammy. Except, that they are now 'only' growing at the rate of the industry. So I can't give them an A anymore as a school grade, I am grading Samsung as a B. We now await their first move into Tizen, the next Galaxy flaghship, the Galaxy S4 isn't expected to be released until after Christmas in the first quarter of 2013, so there isn't much excitement for the gift-giving season either. Good job but there were others that did a great job this quarter. Oh, and for those who want to see the split of Samsung's operating system choices, its this:

SAMSUNG SMARTPHONES SOLD IN Q3 BY OPERATING SYSTEM
Samsung on Android . . . . . . . .90%
Samsung on bada  . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Samsung on Windows Phone . . 1%
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

APPLE - 26.9 M smartphones, 15.7% market share - profitable - B

Apple did a good job again in Q3 (remember, we deal in calendar quarters here, not the fiscal quarters of given companies, so Q3 for Apple on our blog is always calendar quarter July to September). The iPhone is generating by far the biggest share of Apple's total profits, the usual decline trend of the once-per-year launch cycle of the new model would say this last quarter is bad, but as Apple cleverly releases its latest model right in the last week of the previous last quarter, this Q3 - that boosts their sales right at the end, and thus Apple showed a modest gain of 3% compared to Q2. Its less than the industry, but Apple's sales pattern as we know, is an annual 'step ladder' model, not a continuous growth curve, so this is not a bad sign. The big step is always the first full sales quarter of the new model, ie the iPhone 4 for Christmas 2012, ie now. And all signs suggest its going to be a big banner year again for Apple. What more can I say, they only use one OS platform. Lets move to strongly surging number three

HUAWEI - 16.0 million smartphones, 9.3% market share - profitable - A+

Huawei is surging strongly, becoming somewhat 'The Samsung of China' compared to the other Chinese smartphone makers, much like Samsung is far ahead of LG and Pantech in Korea. Huawei management said a few weeks ago that they are on target to hit 50 million total smartphone sales this year, so that means they are far outperforming their nearest Chinese rival ZTE which is reporting a lack of progress towards their sales targets. Huawei does all of its smartphones on Android, is profitable, grew 45% from Q2, that is definitely a performance worth an A+

SONY - 8.8 million smartphones, 5.1% market share - profitable - A

Welcome back to the strong team, Sony! Finally Sony is back where we expect the powerful consumer brand to be. It is growing far faster than the industry - grew 19% from Q2 and is reporting healthy profits out of smartphones once they abandoned the unprofitable Windows nonesense and concentrated on Android. The Sony migration from dumbphones to smartphones is nearly complete. They now command 5% market share which is twice what they had two years ago when it was still the SonyEricsson partnership selling smartphones on all platforms including Symbian. I grade Sony for Q3 as a solid A.

ZTE - 8.0 million smartphones, 4.7% market share - profitable - C

ZTE was doing well but now is stumbling a bit, they kept pace in size from Q2 while the industry grew by 11%, so in reality, ZTE is falling behind. ZTE sells primarily on Android but also in tiny numbers on Windows Phone. They are profitable, I grade them a C

HTC - 7.8 million smartphones, 4.6% market share - profitable - D

HTC is moving seriously backwards in the pack. HTC is actually declining in shipment numbers and fell 11% when the industry grew by 11%. They are reporting almost perennially 'worse' profits per quarter, still profits yes, but ever diminishing. HTC does 3% of its smartphones on Windows Phone and 97% on Android. I grade HTC as a D.

RIM - 7.4 million smartphones, 4.3% market share - loss-making - F

RIM three years ago this time was the second biggest smartphone maker in the world with 21% market share, strong growth, and highly profitable, highly desirable enterprise and consumer smartphones. Then they decided to take their eyes off the ball, launched a tablet, wasted all their marketing effort in that disaster, lost their position in the consumer space and badly stumbled in the enterprise space. One year later, they were at 15% market share, and two years later at 9%. Now, three years after their peak, they are at 4% and falling. RIM sales fell 5% in units from Q2 and they report a loss. This is a performance worth an F. The only silver lining, the new BB10 operating system is ready, the reviews of it are great, and the first new Blackberry 10 smartphones are coming in Q1 of 2013. Expect one more quarter of severe pain at Waterloo, then hopefully we see a turnaround in this former powerhouse puwer smartphone maker.

LG - 7.2 million smartphones, 4.2% market share - profitable - B

Hey, LG is finally back! Life is Good, isn't it? They are finally back from the pain of Windows and at purely Android, are finally back to reporting profits again. LG grew 11% from Q2 which is the same pace as the industry. I grade LG as a B.

LENOVO - 7.0 million smartphones, 4.1% market share - profitable - A

And welcome to the Top 10 for the first time ever for Lenovo of China better known for having bought IBM's personal computer business a few years ago. You never saw a Lenovo branded smartphone, which they cleverly branded as the LePhone? That must mean you don't live in China then. Up to now, LePhones have not been sold in other countries than China, but Lenovo has become the third bestselling smartphone brand of China domestic market already behind only Samsung and Huawei. So yes, those 7.0 million smartphones were all sold just in China in Q3 (the world's biggest smartphone market growing faster than most others, already accounting for 3 out of every 10 smartphones sold globally). Now, Lenovo is aiming for world domination, so they are just launching their first international expansion to India. Lenovos are all powered by Android (interesting choice, isn't it, considering how close Lenovo is/was to Microsoft with Windows haha). Yes, welcome to the Top 10. For strong growth from Q2 and profitable business, I grade Lenovo's first appearance on our Bloodbath blog series, at a full A.

NOKIA - 6.3 million smartphones, 3.7% market share - loss-making - F-

Nokia 21 months ago was the world's biggest smartphone maker so huge, it towered over all rivals, bigger than its next two rivals, combined! More than twice the size of its nearest rival at the time, Apple and four times bigger than Samsung. Nokia's smartphone unit just 21 months ago reported record growth and record profits and a Nokia record jump in profitability. Nokia's smartphone unit was growing faster than Apple's on an annualized basis. Yes, that all was voluntarily thrown away by the new CEO. Today under new CEO Stephen Elop's mismanagement and misguided Windows strategy, the Nokia smartphone unit has tumbled to 10th in the Top 10 and may fall out of the Top 10 by Q4 of 2012. Nokia is literally only one quarter the size of Apple and one ninth the size of Samsung, and Nokia's smartphone unit keeps reporting ever more hideously huge losses. Its Windows Phone based 'Lumia' series sales peaked in Q2 and even those are now in decline, never having captured even 3% market share at its peak. Compare that to Nokia's own Symbian which had literally almost 10 times better market performance, literally, 29% market share, when Elop announced this idiotic strategy. So how is the magnificent Windows Phone doing for Nokia now, in Q3? Surely, after a year of selling that 'wonderful' Microsoft based OS, it must do better than the 'obsolete' Symbian by now? This is Nokia's split of smartphone sales in Q3:

NOKIA SMARTPHONES SOLD IN Q3 BY OPERATING SYSTEM
Nokia smartphones on Symbian/Meego . . . . 54%
Nokia smartphones on Windows Phone . . . . 46%
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

Thats pretty pathetic for Windows Phone and Lumia. The new Lumia re-launch is now going on in Q4 with Windows Phone 8 which is supposed to be all that you ever wanted in a smartphone OS - where have we heard that before, again, and again, and again? No, it won't set the world on fire. Windows Phone 8 based smartphones will never even match the peak of the Windows Phone 7 smartphone market share - which was 3% - and these new Lumia smartphones will capture only a fraction of that total. This is a suicidal strategy, every other handset maker who tried Windows as the primary system has died doing it, or bled so much in losses, they abandoned that path. Nokia will be gone unless it shifts now to Android (like every other Windows maker of the past who survived, and far more likely Nokia is already so damaged, they will simply die as a smarpthone maker. As I predicted on 11 February, 2011, the Microsoft 'partnership' will be good for Microsoft but deadly for Nokia, and that in the end, Nokia will become a slave to Microsoft and turn into a low-cost 'box mover' like Dell in personal computers, with tiny margins at best. The glory days of Nokia are far past. And yes, its very likely that the next time I write this quarterly analysis, Nokia will no longer even be listed as a Top 10 maker, because there are hungry fast-growing Chinese Android-powered low-cost smartphone makers - led by Yulong, very hungry to get into the global Top 10. Yulong sells its smartphones under the brand Coolpad. Keep your eyes on them, very possibly will kick Nokia out of the Top 10 as soon as Q4 of 2012. For Nokia's loss-making disasterous Q3 when the industry grew 11% from Q2, Nokia smartphone sales declined .. wait for it .. 38% !!! in just one quarter !!!  This is one of the worst one-quarter performances by any smartphone maker ever seen, unfortunately I can't give them a worse grade than an F-

MOTOROLA (Google) - fell out of Top 10

Yes, just a brief mention, Moto-Moto is soon dead as a Dodo-Dodo.. They fell out of the Top 10 already globally and are shrinking and making losses and Google is firing a lot of their staff globally. They make some nice top-end smartphone models, but in miniscule numbers now.

OPERATING SYSTEMS

So then lets do the same for the operating systems.. And as before, in order of size, first comes Google's own juggernaut, already selling more smartphones and tablets powering this operating system every quarter, than all Windows powered personal computers, tablets and smartphones - combined! Here we go..

ANDROID - 121.2 Million smartphones, 70.7% market share

Android has won the race by now, yes powering 7 out of every 10 smartphone sold globally and more amazingly, over four times more Android smartphones are sold than the second bestselling smartphone OS in the world (iOS on iPhones). There really is no longer a 'race' in this side of the smartphone bloodbath, congratulations Google for winning the biggest battle in tech, ever. And winning it quite decisively, in very short time. Just two years ago, Android was only half the size of Symbian and had just overtaken Apple's iOS and Blackberry for second place. Yes, only a short 27 months ago, in Q2 of 2010, Android was in fourth place among smartphone OS platforms by new sales. Now they command the market and are more than four times bigger than number two and 16 times bigger than Blackberry, and 35 times bigger than Symbian and 37 times bigger than the next 'multi-vendor' OS platform, Microsoft's Windows Phone. Ok, how do those Android manufacturers split up this booty? Here are the market shares internally for Android makers:

ANDROID SMARTPHONES SOLD IN Q3 BY MANUFACTURER
Samsung . . . . . . . . 42%
Huawei . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Sony  . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
HTC . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
LG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Lenovo . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Others . . . . . . . . . . 20% 
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

iOS - 26.9 million smartphones, 15.7% market share

Apple's iOS is doing its steady second place job as the most expensive premium smartphone platform out there, loved by its users with incredible loyalty. The market share growth has slowed to a snail's pace. It was 14% this quarter two years ago, 15% last year this time and now slightly under 16%. I have been calling for Apple to make a global shift, release lower-cost smartphones, and end the one-new-model-per-year cycle. Apple does that with its Macs and iPods and even the iPad has broadened its product range, but with the iPhone, they stick to only one new model per year. They are leaving a lot of money on the table, and perhaps unrecoverable market share, that now is going to Android.

BLACKBERRY - 7.4 million smartphones, 4.3% market share

Yeah, same story here as in the above. Blackberry hurting and have to suffer one more quarter before the new BB10 smartphones arrive. Luckily for RIM, they have enterprise customers as their primary customer segment, who are not as fashion-oriented to run after the latest shiniest device, but make decisions on several-year horizons, and are willing to keep buying some Blackberries for their employees as they await BB10.

bada - 5.2 million smartphones, 3% market share

And Samsung's bada is a very rare animal at most Western markets, perhaps with the exception of France but is doing brisk sales in places like Russia and India. This OS was launched at the same time as the highly visible Windows Phone two years ago, and quietly, targeting low-cost customers, only powered by Samsung brand, where the primary Samsung effort went to Android, this little engine that could has totally bested Microsoft's effort, even where Nokia was brought in to put the best Lumia effort to sell Windows Phone. bada holds a steady 3% market share globally, as Samsung is preparing to do the first launches of its new OS, Tizen, developed with Intel and which is expected to take over or be merged with the bada project. First Tizen smartphones are expected to be out in early 2013 and one of the early prototype handsets is, no surprise here, a port of the Galaxy S3 to Tizen. Tizen also has many global operator/carrier groups supporting it, so if you ever thought what the carriers meant when they said they wanted a new platform to rival Android and iOS, they were not talking about Windows, they were talking about Tizen. So who are those operators supporting Tizen then? Telefonica, Sprint, Vodafone, Orange, NTT DoCoMo, SK Telecom.. Plus manufacturers part of Tizen alliance include Panasonic, NEC and Huawei. Do not dismiss this challenger for next year...

SYMBIAN - 3.4 million smartphones, 2.0% market share

Nokia's Symbian is now really on its last legs. The last new smarpthone we saw on it was the 808 Pureview, and even as Nokia fumbled that launch, not producing enough of the highly popular and highly demanded (really? Yes, so said Nokia, they couldn't match demand and severely underestimated its sales when it launched) super cameraphone. But that time is now over, Symbian sales fell 32% just from Q2 and with only obsolete devices for the Christmas market, expect Symbian sales to plummet now. Obviously all last remaining partners of Symbian had quit this OS and what remains are truly only Nokia branded sales.

WINDOWS PHONE - 3.3 million smartphones, 1.9% market share

Windows Phone had its peak share just hitting 3% one quarter ago, but then Microsoft announced that none of the current phones can be upgrade to Windows Phone 8, and just like all major analysts suggested, the sales would collapse as they did. Windows Phone sales fell 28% in just one quarter (where that announcement came within that quarter, so we have not even seen a full quarter's effect yet). Now Microsoft is rolling out Windows Phone 8, with ever less new handset manufacturers sticking with Microsoft, each doing ever less actual devices and ever less actual markets. Its essentially only Nokia left with Microsoft. This is the split of Windows Phone smartphone sales in Q3:

WINDOWS PHONE SMARTPHONES SOLD IN Q3 BY MANUFACTURER
Nokia . . . . . . . . . . . 88%
Samsung . . . . . . . . . 5%
HTC . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Others . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

Windows Phone 8 will now include full Skype integration. Do you think that will thrill the carriers/operators into fully supporting WP8 if they were lukewarm to WP7 ? Remember what Nokia's CEO Stephen Elop said about do carriers love Skype? He said, and I quote "feedback from the operators is, that they don't like Skype, of course." Where did Stephen Elop utter that statement? To the Nokia shareholders meeting this Spring! That was after they had seen Lumia with Windows Phone 7 - that did not have Skype pre-installed - and before the carriers had been given the chance to see the new Lumia which comes with Windows Phone 8, fully integrating Skype. And yes, Microsoft brings that full Skype integration to the destktop on Windows 8 etc. A billion new competitors to the main profit engine and revenue source for carriers, voice traffic (especially international voice traffic) and messaging. No wonder the carriers hate Skype. Do not think Windows Phone 8 can outperform Windows Phone 7. The carriers not just hate Skype, they hate Microsoft for owning Skype and funding their biggest threat to the very financial survival of the telecoms operators/carriers. 

MEEGO - in hybernation

I'll just mention briefly MeeGo. It has emerged that Nokia had 3 MeeGo devices ready to sell last year, only relased one for sale, the highly-praised and beloved N9, and manufactured its sister device, the N950, in tiny numbers but didn't sell that. I speculated on this blog, based on my analysis of some of Nokia's strong markets like China and Nokia statements (or lack thereof) about MeeGo and N9 performance, that in the first two quarters when both Lumia series on Windows Phone, and the sole N9 on MeeGo, the MeeGo unit sales actually exceeded all of Windows Phone. Well, that is water under the bridge. We never got a formal word from Nokia on the specific numbers of MeeGo sales. And many thought MeeGo was over, until.. a small start-up in Finland, formed out of ex-Nokia ex-MeeGo people, called Jolla, had launched. Jolla is expected to introduce its first handset still this year, and start to sell smartphones powered my MeeGo (or likely, a further developed version of that operating system) soon. Lets not forget MeeGo. But lets say, it is in hybernation. But if you loved the N9 or N950, just imagine what the next MeeGo device could have been. We may well see that, in the first Jolla device soon...
 
Ok, that should be the analysis of Q3, in the Electric Jamboree. We will return in early February 2013 for the Q4 results and full-year 2012 results as per usual. Also at that time, we can find out who won the reader contest to guess what will be Windows Phone market share now this Q4 of 2012. If you wanted earlier numbers, Q2 of 2012 is here. Meanwhile, enjoy the stats, and remember all this data is free to be shared

(also for those who may want to order my statistical volume on the handset industry, the ebook, TomiAhonen Phone Book 2012 - please note, that due to Hurricane Sandy, my webhost on Manhattan's 14th street is currently still fighting the aftermath of the flood, so my ebusiness site, and my primary website, and my email are all currently not operational - if you desperately want the Phone Book 2012, please send me an email to my temporary email address ttahonen at yahoo dot com and put in your email header 'Phone Book' and I'll get back to you with how to order, etc. I hope to get the website and ebooks and email all back soon)
 

Comments

[foo]

"Ok, am posting this preliminary blog now, as some are eagerly awaiting these numbers."

Thanks, Tomi.

I was one of those eagerly waiting for a new post. :)

[Wayne Borean]

No surprises really. It is rather sad seeing Symbian and Blackberry OS dying out.

Of course I'm one of the guys who was upset when the Commodore C64 went out of production.

Wayne

[elm70]

"but don't hold your breath, Windows Phone is proving a horrid and hated OS by the retail channel."

That means retail chain is happy with Android + Apple + RIM ?

Are you still expecting 5m Lumia for Q4 2012 ?

Finally ... PC market once Microsoft got a big dominance position, it become invincible, and it left the rest to play for a niche market ... can we see the parallel with Android today ?

Android got 70% of market, and it is still growing ... no signing of saturation so far.

Is the Mobile OS War over ?

There are rumours that Nokia, since lost leadership and follow up position on the Mobile business, is exploring to enter new market ... Nokia is looking to do everything, except gave up Microsoft partnership ..

[RyanZA]

"Of course I'm one of the guys who was upset when the Commodore C64 went out of production."

While it ultimately feels a bit unfortunate that the C64 (and symbian, blackberry, etc) went out of production, it was still a really good thing long term. For devs to make really good stuff, the less platforms the better, since each platform means more code, more bugs, different UI, etc etc. So even if C64s had kept chugging along, the stuff you ran on them would get worse and the stuff on other platforms would probably be a bit worse too.

Unfortunately the replacement was Windows which meant nobody could compete with their own versions. Android is luckily a very very good platform to have dominating. We already have a few different 'types' of android (Amazon, MIUI, x86 versions, etc) with more coming - and all of them are fully binary compatible so you can take all your stuff and move between the different types. This is a really, really good thing for the future of smartphone usage. (Things like Google Maps etc throws this out a bit, but hopefully we can see some nice alternative ones show up for Android.. maybe when Nokia wakes up and moves to Android compatibility?)

[Tester]

>> And thus, Samsung will sit atop the hill, but it will be a less and less profitable perch. Samsung MAY see that coming and try to use it's massive market position to take control of Android for itself. Fork Android as Amazon has. Replace Google's apps with it's own. Try and make a value proposition via software as Apple does. Progress they've made with their Galaxy Note and the Pen apps show that they are already on their way.

It remains to be seen.
Amazon is hardly a good example and I guess most of its customers will soon learn that they are the losers.

At the moment the name 'Android' sells and without keepin Google in they would not be allowed to use the name. Not something appealing to the high end market. It may be successful at the low end where cheap customers are looking at price only without ever questioning a device's viability.

[elm70]

@ Baron95

Yes, DOS legacy was the key for let Microsft win the war in the past ... but the war was very simple ... Microsoft did ride the success of Intel PC , clone of IBM ... this gave DOS/Windows PC a huge price advantage over Apple Mac

Same we see now ... multiple Android providers with price war ... vs premium Apple iPhone

iPhone today has still the advantage to have had 2 years head start compared to Android , plus Apple now has a very solid relationship with the telecoms, that help them to maximize the sales ... US telecoms are pushing iPhone like never ... as example iPhone 5 is sold by US telecom at same price as Samsung S3, that is 30% cheaper

Anyhow Android + iPhone cover almost 90% of the market ... both are still growing ... yes ... I don't expect iPhone to decline anytime soon, but I see a parallel to the PC business : Android dominant like was Windows in the PC ... Apple to take care of a niche but well profitable market ... the rest will be nothing commercial ... like the today Ubuntu ... there is a space for MeeGo/Jolla ... for the freak niche

Windows and Microsoft have failed over 10 years on the Mobile OS market, and there is no sign that this will change

All the money of Microsoft can do nothing against a dominant open source OS

The first confirmation of my view will come soon, if Microsoft will have dignity to release the ultra low sales of Windows 8 RT , and their useless Surface Tablet ... in the Q4 open balance report

Tchuss

E_lm_70

[bjarneh]

Baron95> It is not true, as Tomi, claims that SW developers favor the platform with the most units shipped. They favor the platform with the most valuable consumers (either buyers of apps or desirable to advertisers).

nobody is making any money in that app-store, the largest platform will win because providers of services will make apps for it, this is where developers make their money. i'm developer, i don't make money trying to build the next facebook or angry birds, i make a living writing programs for people who need them, and they typically need to reach their customers.

take online banking as an example, all the banks in Norway (where i'm from) have to make Android apps, since this is the biggest platform. they need developers to do it naturally, this is where the real value with these app-stores are in terms of being a developer.

your argument is very common, but ask developers, what percentage of them make a living off something they pushed for themselves on the app-store?

[tgee]

The reason of iOS app sales isn't the iPhone, it is the iPad. Android has yet to make a dent in there and with limited fragmentation. Google nexus 7 may be what it takes to do so as Samsung stupidly missed the 7/8 inch format for the notepad.
Microsoft also missed that format, but apple is now there... So is rim, that may rejoice its tablet with an enterprise success of bb10.
I'm convinced that both the tablet and the phone will ship and tehter together. Which means, less in the phone and more in a wifi only tablet. The winner will be the one that make carriers accept this dual headed device, possibly with limiting the hotstop capability to the pair tablet.
NFC Telco stack wifi hotspot miracast but no Bluetooth, limited storage and memory, no front camera in the phone. Limited screen.
And the muscles in the tablet, but neither NFC nor Telco stack.
Somehow I'm disappointed Jolla tried a follower
product approach. But Nokia may have what it takes to risk something different.
The phone can be a feature phone + a miracast dongle
The tablet can be the second screen, the trackpad or penpad couple to a Bluetooth keyboard. Hence with 3 devices, I can group the features of many devices, with minimal overlap.
It just takes not to consider each devices separatly.

[tgee]

Forget to add that in this model, carrier would differentiate on national media content which they shall already be ready for.

[bjarneh]

Baron95> What a ridiculous statement.

Baron95> eBay, Facebook, Skype (Microsoft), Netflix, NYtimes, etc, etc, etc are generating a growing part of their revenue from the App Store.

these are not *DEVELOPERS*, this is exactly my point.

Baron95> It is not true, as Tomi, claims that SW developers favor the platform with the most units shipped. They favor the platform with the most valuable consumers.

"They" are SW developers right?

corporations etc is a different story, *they* will prefer whatever they think customers want.. but for software developers there really is no Android vs. IOS, i'll gladly write one program for each platform for twice the salary, doesn't matter to me...

corporations cannot ignore the largest platform, so there will be MORE Android development in the future than IOS/Windows/Bada/Tizen etc, unless there is a unifying way to write code for all platforms. HTML5 seems to be the only way forward in this direction, but it is a horrible direction (Javascript) IMO.

[Bob,Boulder, Colorado]

Google is poised to be the winner of this smartphone battle. I see more and more carrier blowback to the huge iphone subsidies. Iphone will probably retain its lead in US, but in the rest of world, battered by recession and by a consumer profile markedly different from the ever spending US consumer profile, they will switch over completely to android which will provide everything iOS does, but at a lower cost and sometimes android will even provide better services for free.

Google is the undisputed champion of web and this is the weapon that will help google win the smartphone war. Google is like an ultimate naval power in a world composed only of infantries and tanks and other outdated technologies like OS and hardware. The profits will all be in services.

[HUber]

@Baron: iOS is easier to develop for, I just recently talked to some guys from Startup companies, and they told me they develop first for iOS simply because it is easier.

Hence they have a lower time-to-market and get some revenue earlier. Additionally, they just need to hire iOS-developers at first, which saves costs.

One guy told me that he despises Apple in private for their locked down system, but his business decision is iOS first nevertheless.

This is why people claim Apple gets the 'cool' Apps first, and there certainly is some truth in it.

OTOH, when big corporations release Apps, they usually have the budget to develop for both Android and iOS from the beginning.

These are for example banks, insurances etc. Usually these companies analyze how much of their own customers use iOS or Android and prioritize their App development accordingly.

Other companies, like Denon with their App-based Smartphone Remote Control, start with one OS (mostly iOS), then the other follows.
But this is only a limitation for a short time. After the Android-App is released, both Apps normally get the same upgrades, since the know-how is there now.

Finally, low-cost smartphones get better and better. What nowadays is considered low-end would have been high-end in 2010.
At the same time, mobile data plans become cheaper and cheaper. So the number of people who use Android-smartphones like they used to use their dumb phone is shrinking.

The sheer number of Android phones with mobile data available will attract developers in the future, especially when the number of high-end Android phones will exceed the number of iOS phones in total. Then the cheap Androids are an additional incentive to go for Android

[foo]

@LeeBase "It will be more like Coke/Pepsi. Two giants with everyone else marginalized. Google will be coke with the largest market share. Apple will be Pepsi with the most revenue."

According to Beverage Digest's 2008 report on carbonated soft drinks, PepsiCo's U.S. market share is 30.8 percent, while The Coca-Cola Company's is 42.7 percent.

Compare that to Android's 70% against iOS 15%. There is no comparison. And the difference is increasing.

For instance: the difference between Apple (#2) and Huawey (#3) reduced from 12% to 6% in one quarter. That's right, folks: if the trend continues, Apple will drop to #3 in two quarters.

Android is quickly becoming the Windows of mobile, except that it is open source -- a huge advantage for the manufacturers who adopt it.

There is no reason for a manufacturer to adopt WindowsPhone (except the heavy handed tactics from Microsoft involving patent suits). There is little space for differentiation, so they only can compete on price or become a niche player. And they become hostage of Microsoft, which is never good. (See Nokia)

[cycnus]

What's interesting in Tomi's bloodbath war data were:

* In Q4 2012 RIM probably will be out of 10. because RIM lost around 1% of market share each quarter
* In Q1 2013 RIM would still be out of 10.

* Huawei will be number 2 in 1 or 2 or 3 quarter. Depending how well iphone 5 sales number is. Tomi still believe that apple will sell a truck load of iphone 5, and Huawei won't beat apple for another year.... if huawei manage to kick apple from number 2, then some other company too... apple will be piss off.

* If RIM and Nokia out of number 10 in Q4 2012, that's mean 9 android manufacture vs. iphone.

[chithanh]

@HUber how recently did you talk to them? In the Freelancer Fast 50 report for 2011 (released in February 2012) it was predicted that Android development jobs would overtake iOS by Q4 2012, at least when it comes to freelancing.

[Huber]

@chithanh:

I talked to them about two weeks ago.

But note that these were guys from small Startups. They lack money and focus first on iOS because it is cheaper (less different devices, resolutions etc.). Only when their iOS-App succeeds do they have money for an according Android-App.

Bigger corporations don't have such problems, so your statistic could very well be correct.

Also my evidence is anecdotal, perhaps other Startups do it different to those I personally talked to.

[foo]

@LeeBase: "If you further realize that there are "smart phones" and there are "super phones", and realize that it's not particularly meaningful to compare the sales of the cheap low end android phones to the Galaxy SIII, Motorola Razor and the iPhone -- you'd see that "in it's class" the iPhone is doing very well indeed."

Good point.

"And no, Apple has NOT competed in the low end, no profit margin segments in ANY of the other markets. There are $10 mp3 players, but Apple doesn't make them. There are $250 laptops/netbooks, but not made by Apple. Apple released the iPad mini, but nowhere near the marginless price points that the 7" Android tablets are going for."

I beg to differ: Apple does compete in the low end, with iPhone 4 -- which is free with contract.

So, while I agree Apple still has a big chunk of the superphones (and I think that Tomi should consider using this segmentation in his analysis), they also compete with cheap Android phones by offering iPhone 4 for free.

[John Waclawsky]

Haven't you guys figured it out Baron95 is a Microsoft astroturfer. Just ignore him. Your cluttering up the comment section with a troll discussion. See:
http://techrights.org/wiki/index.php/AstroTurfing

[John Waclawsky]

Status on Microsoft's decline:
http://semiaccurate.com/2012/11/14/microsoft-has-failed/

Nokia should read this.

[Earendil Star]

John, thanks for your insight.

An other interesting read is the following: http://semiaccurate.com/2011/03/14/microsoft-gutted-nokia-and-left-them-without-a-chance/

It provides a lots of insight in what must have gone on between MS and Nokia.

And how this could happen under the oversight of Jorma Olilla is unfathomable. Blackmailed? Who knows.

But, sad stories aside, what I see is the usual trolls trying to cover hard facts (Android supremacy) with utter nonsense.

You know what? Who cares. Given the current speed of events, we won't be hearing from them much longer.

Just wait and see what happens when MS' money dries out...!