Quick Notes for Digital Jamboree - Smartphone Bloodbath Year Three, as we await final Numbers for Q3

(Yeah, I am quite consumed with the US election now only four days away, don't worry, we'll resume back to normal here at the CDB blog once the election mayhem is over)

A few quick notes that may interest my readers about the Digital Jamboree, ie Smartphone Bloodbath Year Three. We have first of all LG reporting its numbers. Their handset business is now highly profitable once again (after they abandoned Microsoft Windows based lunacy and went full Android). How many did they sell in Q3? Half of their 14.4 million handsets sold were smartphones ie 7.2 Million. So LG has leapfrogged Nokia and is now chasing HTC and RIM. LG is now on the mend, and have a 4% market share currently with growing smartphone sales again. Congrats! 

Then Sony? After they got rid of the Ericsson baggage in the SonyEricsson partnership and started to pursue their best consumer electronics knowhow, how is that smartphone biz doing? Sony sold 7.4 million smartphones last quarter, now they did 8.8 million - a growth of 19% in just one quarter. And the Sony smartphone business which was unprofitable before, is now profitable again. Sony's market share is now up to 5% and they have leapfrogged HTC, RIM and Nokia! Congrats! Oh do I need to mention this, Sony obviously abandoned the loss-inducing Windows nonsense and does just Android now.

Then about those big numbers. As always I'll report the full quarter results and top 10 market shares by handset brands, by operating systems, and by installed bases, plus all top smartphone handset manufacturer analysis once we get all four of the big analyst houses to report their numbers. So far we have Strategy Analytics who counted 161.7 Million smartphones in Q3 and IDC who just now reported 181.1 Million. The Strategy Analytics number is up 11% from that in Q2, while IDC number for Q3 is up.. one percent from their Q3 number they released earlier this week haha.. Yes, IDC keeps revising its number upwards. Earlier we heard that IDC counted 179.7 Million total smartphones sold in Q3, now they have revised that number up by 1% to 181.1 Million (and still, somehow, IDC has forgotten even to count bada based smartphones which we see from various national surveys are still selling like in Russia). Nonetheless IDC's number is up 18% from Q2. And another curiosity - IDC has also revised upwards, without telling us they did, and without giving reason why, their own Q3 number of 2011 - which originally they reported as 118.1 Million but now they have quietly upped that by 5% to 123.7 Million (if you remember, in my Electric Boogaloo analysis Q3 of last year, I used the number of 117.7 Million which was the average of the big 4 at the time. I will not go revisit those numbers, but its somewhat frustrating seeing the reality was bigger and now the 'referees' are 'changing the final score' after the game has ended).

Well, I've warned you readers that is likely to happen in this industry, that the smartphone market is difficult to count and the big houses even will often need to adjust their numbers. The adjustment invariably is upwards, not downwards, like in this case - 5% more sales last year Q3 than originally thought. Thats 6.2 million lost smartphone customers unaccounted for. Thats essentially a whole Nokia-sized gap in the market haha..

Ok, we still await the Gartner and Canalys numbers. Then I'll do the full Top 10 and Q3 analysis for the Digital Jamboree. Now lets all go back and follow the horse-race that is the US Presidential Election.. 

Comments

[foo]

comScore reports September 2012 U.S. Mobile Subscriber Market Share

The report includes: Top Mobile OEMs (Nokia is out) and Top Smartphone Platforms (Symbian and Microsoft are down).

http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2012/11/comScore_Reports_September_2012_U.S._Mobile_Subscriber_Market_Share

[Earendil Star]

So, Tomi, LG and Sony are up and profitable again... with Android

Meanwhile Nokia, with WP, is still bleeding heavily.

MS is taking notice and is preparing to build its own device, if necessary:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-02/microsoft-said-to-plan-phone-if-partner-approach-falters.html

And now Ballmer considers HTC as its favorite phone.

Not good, Nokia. Not good. NoNokia. Not good.

Too bad contingency plans were abandoned. Too bad.

Congrats, THT Elop. Congrats. Job well done. Possibly a bit overdone. But well done, overall.

[TK]

Sad Nokia. Epic fail.
Only chance, reboot harmattan.

[elm70]

@E.Star & Tomi

Any news about class action in US ?

Any news from Tomi open letter to Finish Nokia share holder?

For me, thinking of Elop still free, not even in a court ... is amazing, more then his capabilities to stay out of jail ... there is a huge problem in the democratic system in Finland

Tchuss

E_lm_70

Ps: only hope for nokia to survive, it is to jump on android train as soon as possible, but this is impossible until Capital, Dodge & Morgan, whom control Nokia, the three American sisters funds will not decide to abandon Microsoft, so impossible!

Pps: who cares of US election ... American democracy is a joke, many EU countries has far better system, but clearly not Finland

Ppps: Nokia has a brand only for dummy phones ... in smartphone they are out of top 5, maybe #7 ... with ridiculous low market share that is shrinking ... so it has no more value for Microsoft now, but having the control, for them is better to destroy Nokia then let it free to become a competitor allowing them to jump on Android and rebuild MeeGo

[svensson]

I would like to know what Tomi thinks of Nokia's latest lineup 810, 822, and 920.

I think 920 looks real attractive (anyway from what I saw on youtube reviews) but the system (Ms Windows Phone 8) is a real problem. First of all it demands a data-fat contract with an operator to put it to its full use (think applephone). The limitations in data-trasfer possibilities are really a downer looking from a Symbian perspective (think applephone again)
The only viable option for an old Symbian nerd is to go to Android. These two systems are quite familiar with each other (think pull-down menu, real desktop experience with customizable widgets and unrestricted BT-transfer and PC-connectivity)

So I wont be getting it, I wonder who will?

[Robert]

"Faced with plunging demand for TVs and a record yen that hammers the repatriated value of overseas sales, Sony Corp. (6758), Panasonic Corp. (6752) and Sharp plunged to record losses last year. After failing to come up with hit products to challenge Samsung and Apple Inc. (AAPL), the Japanese consumer-electronics companies have resorted to shuttering factories, firing workers and cutting costs to revive."

iPads & other tablets are disrupting the TV market. Purchases of 2nd or 3rd TV's are being replaced with media-consumption tablets. Instead of buying newer larger TV, people buy new but smaller iPad.

Notable that none of these companies have presence in mobile.

[Geektech]

What about MS been sue because the tiles ip, it looks that they violate it on purpouse. What do you think?

[Winter]

@Geektech
MS violating a patent is a non-sequitur. Every human being violates some USA patent every single day in their life.

However, the room on the market for WinPhones is minimal, currently less than 10%. In Q3 2012 Android 75%, iOS 15%, the rest 10%.

Android : 75% market share. The future is open !
http://openceo.blogspot.ca/2012/11/android-75-market-share-future-is-open.html

[DS]

WP8 has both free compressing proxy for web browser and (from what they advertise) an automatic watch dog that adapts the compression to remaining data on a plan (requires carries cooperation).
So in this department it should be at least better than the IPhone (which usually comes with a fat data plan to hide its real cost anyway).

[Winter]

@Duke and DS
Most humans seem to prefer prepaid phone plans. Prepaid data plans are popular too. Especially popular in developing (and BRIC) countries.

That might become a huge problem for iPhone and WP. If not a deal-breaker for WP in their competition against Android.

[Kirill Zelenski]

hi Tomi.
how is your e-mail? recovered? cant reach you with some mails. :) can you check? want to buy new book and also some other questions... )

Kirill

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Kirill

Sorry, yes. This time its my web host on Manhattan, they are repairing damage (they're on 14th street) related to Sandy and hoping they'd be up soon. I think you have my Yahoo email, could you try that? And let me know which ebook, I'll send you the link etc. Cheers!

Tomi :-)

[cycnus]

Top 1,2,3,4,5 in China were android.
Nokia & windows phone were out of TOP 5 in China.

http://www.gsmarena.com/apple_drops_out_of_top_5_in_china_galaxy_s_iii_tops_iphone_4s_in_q3-news-5058.php

[cheap jerseys]

Sad nokia. Epic failure.
Only the opportunity, restart the guards.

[V-pillsi kimler kullanabilir]

Yes, We'd like to know the data costs of running WP live tiles all the time. It has to run up the bill without the user knowing!

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