Nokia Q3 Results.. What can I say, we knew it would be misery all around

When Stephen Elop announced his surprising Windows strategy on February 11, 2011, he promised a 1 to 1 transition from Symbian, and that Windows would also start to take sales from featurephones. Now we have seen 6 quarters of Eloppian management execution of that new strategy and four quarters of Lumia sales using that new promised Windows platform. Some so-called experts promised this would be a 'third ecosystem' (haha) and some so-called experts promised Microsoft-powered Nokia would have over 20% market share in smartphones. Now we can see what the reality is like.

First the top-line info. Nokia reports Q3 smartphone sales of 6.3M units of sales which is down 38% (in just one quarter!) from 10.2M in Q2. The Nokia smartphone revenues are 976M Euros (1,279 M US Dollars), down 37% from Q2. Nokia average sales prices of smartphones are 155 Euro (203 USD), up from 151 Euro (198 USD). Nokia's market share in smartphones has fallen from 7% in Q2 of 2012 to 4% now. 

How is that promise of the third ecosystem doing? Lumia sales are DOWN and massively, 27% just from the quarter before (how's 'em apples, then? The promise of AT&T success and 'outselling Apple in China haha). Yes, Lumia sales down from 4.0M in Q2 to 2.9M now. Bear in mind, the market is GROWING. Lumia ASP is collapsing, falling 14% in just one quarter (who wants an obsolete phone after all?). Meanwhile - Symbian prices are up! Yes, its that 808 Pureview etc powering Symbian price climb..

In very early rough draft, assuming roughly same proportion of Nokia vs rival Windows Phone sales, this suggest Windows Phone global market share fallen from 3% in Q2 to 2% now! How's that for your 'third ecosystem'? Windows had 12% market share five years ago in smartphones. It had 5% before Windows Phone first edition launched. Windows (all versions) had 4% by the time Elop selected Windows Phone for Nokia. Windows was down to 1% by the time Nokia finally released its first smartphone. And last quarter, Windows Phone - after 3 quarters of Nokia-fuelled growth, had just managed to hit 3% (with some rounding off). Now they are falling again, and will be around 2% this quarter. This is Elop's saviour-OS. This is what he staked all of Nokia's future on. A platform which in 2010 was declining, in 2011 was declining more, and now, in the latest quarter is once again declining in market share. 2%.. Two percent and falling. Two YEARS after Windows Phone launched.

How about Symbian then? The collapse is now enormous, Symbian based Nokia smartphone sales fell 45% in just one quarter, from 6.2M to 3.4M. The ASP of Symbian phones actually increased - due to the popularity of the 808 Pureview that now shipping apparently to correct levels (early Nokia said it had not anticipated correctly the popularity of this, Nokia's most powerful cameraphone, running Symbian). Yes, Symbian ASP is up 17% from 129 Euros to 151 Euros. But total revenues in the Symbian side, obviously fell massively from 797 Million Euros to 512 million (falling 46%) 

The profitability (ie loss-making percent) ie 'contribution margin is massively worse - now Nokia generates a loss of 48.9% per smartphone it sells! This is ridiculous.

The ultimate measure, as I have been explaining, for any company who was a traditional 'dumbphone' maker, and is trying to transition to becoming a smartphone maker - is the migration rate. Nokia was the only legacy handset manufacturer who actually was ahead of this curve, and had achieved that transition successfully, by the time Elop came to take over as Nokia CEO. At that time Nokia's transition rate to smarpthones was 23% when the global industry was only at 20% at the time. Today the global transition rate from dumbphones is at about 40% for Q3. Nokia's Eloppian 'strategy' has comprehensively failed this test, and he is running Nokia into the ground by regressing on this metric. The migration rate is literally going backwards, Nokia's migration rate was down to 12% last quarter! (this while Sony and Motorola are nearing 100% migration and Samsung is near 50%). And how is this, Q3? Check this out - Nokia migration rate from dumbphones to smartphones - is.... (drumroll)... 7.5%. Yes. Nokia is now a box-mover. Just as I predicted, this mad Microsoft strategy will push Nokia from highly profitable smartphone maker to becoming the Dell of handsets, and slave to Microsoft.

WAS THIS CATASTROPHY FORE-SEEABLE?

Spoiler alert - my downgraded revised forecast, after we learned Lumia was 'Osborned' by Steve Ballmer, from June, said Nokia Q3 would be: 5.2M units, 3.1M of those would be Lumia, and Nokia market share would be 3%. And I predicted 1B Euro revenues. Haha.. Reality was 6.2M, 2.9M, 976M Euros and 4% market share.. Not bad, eh?

I told you in February 2011 that Nokia's smartphone sales would collapse with this mad strategy. I said right then in February that Nokia's smartphone sales would be down to a 12% market share by year-end 2011 (it ended up being.. 12%). No other analyst suggested this massive a fall and most on my blog here were saying, yes Nokia would probably fall, but Tomi was being too pessimistic, it could not be that bad. Yes, remember, Nokia at that point held 33% market share for the full year 2010 when this new strategy was announced, and by Q4 Nokia was reporting strong growth - not decline, growth in smartphone sales, as well as in unit prices (meaning customers loved the then-current new phones running yes, Symbian) and Nokia reported it can't keep up with demand. Obviously smartphone unit revenues were up - can you imagine, Nokia earned 4.4 Billion euros (per quarter!) from smartphone sales back then. And yes, before Elop decided to launch his 'strategy' - Nokia profits were up and Nokia profitability in the smartphone unit jumped at a Nokia record. If you take a growing unit that towers over its rivals - Nokia was more than twice the size of its nearest rival when Elop announced his mad Microsoft migration strategy - you don't expect a comprehensive collapse. Nobody else predicted the damage wold be this bad. But I saw what it meant, and I was right.

Go back to February 2011. My first gut feeling of how this partnership might 'work', back then in February 2011, was that the new Microsoft powered Windows based Nokia smartphones would have 8% market share by end of 2012. That - was of course assuming that Nokia made wise (ie normal) decisions about its products, to suit its customers and markets - not the madness we've seen from Stephen Elop with the first Lumia series (the 13 reasons why it can't win anywhere including USA, the 101 technical problems - now with More Windows, improved to 121 faults, etc). Yes. 4 in 10 Nokia Lumia owners in the only independent study of Lumia customer satisfaction, by Yankee Group, rated the Lumia smartphones the worst on the survey. When 4 out of 10 customers say your phones are worst, you are toast. The Lumia series has had the biggest return rates of any smartphone model in Nokia's history, and that was BEFORE the current Lumia line was Osborned.

So, after we saw what the Lumia looked like, and saw Elop's crazy feuding with the retail channel, the carrier boycotts and how Microsoft's acquisition of Skype was poisoning its carrier relationships (all these are facts, don't come here to argue the point, Nokia CEO himself has admitted to these explicity problems in public), I gave my revised forecast on May 2012 for the end of 2012 and for 2013, after we had the Lumia series launched broadly around the world and selling for one full quarter. Remember, still at the start of this year, there were many so-called experts who were talking about Nokia and Microsoft so-called 'third ecosystem' (haha) would achieve something like 16% markets share by year-end. That obviously is a total pipe-dream.

But thing kept getting worse. I had of course assumed Nokia would at least buy into a system which itself was new, and sustainable, and upgradable! I had not anticipated that Elop's 'BFF' Steve Ballmer would screw this 'strategic partnership' that royally, as he did in June when Ballmer said the Nokia Lumia series won't be able to be upgraded to Windows Phone 8. What kind of madness is this Elop strategy? He deliberately sunk Nokia's existing - growing - smartphone platform for not just the smallest one out there, and one that was itself shrinking (yes, Windows had 4% market share when it was selected and ended the year 2011 having lost half, at 2%) - but now we find out, Elop selected a platform which itself was going to be obsolete within 16 months of the great February 11 announcement in 2011. Gosh! The DEVELOPMENT cycle of this industry for new phones is 18 months. And you, Mr 'call me the General' Stephen Elop 'strategic thinker' CEO selected a new OS which will be obsolete in just over a year? Sharp move, Sherlock!

So even the new Nokia OS that you tried to kill, MeeGo, will actually live longer than Windows Phone 7, the OS you preferred, now that Jolla will be releasing their first MeeGo based smartphones next year. Haha, the irony.

So, now that we see the sheer incompetence of this 'transition' from drinking healthy growth juices to drinking poison, how did I adjust my forecast? After we learned that the whole series of the first four Lumia smartphones were now obsolete, I published this updated forecast for the end of this year. I said now, Q3 would be:

5.2M units, 3.1M of those would be Lumia, and Nokia market share would be 3%. I said the smartphone ASP would be 152 Euros. I projected Q3 Nokia smartphone unit total revenues to be down to an even 1 Billion Euros, and that the smartphone unit would be unprofitable. What happened? We have now the Q3 results, smartphone unit sales 6.3M, with 2.9M Lumia sales and Nokia market share 4%. The ASP is 151 Euros and the revenues 976 million Euros. And yes, the smartphone unit is enormously unprofitable, generating 49% losses on every smatphone it manages to push at a reluctant customer!

I was wrong in my Symbian part of that estimate, I expected Symbian to fall to 2.1M units, and in reality Symbian still outsells the Windows Phone based Lumia series with 3.4M units. That - is yet more testament that Symbian is not dead, and was not worth killing last year, if it manages this fight this well. But yes, this is disasterous results for Nokia - and yours truly? Quite a remarkable forecast again - and everyone said I was being too pessimistic again. Yeah. But I know this industry...

HOW IS ELOP STRATEGY?

So lets take a look at the strategy then? We have now had 4 quarters of Lumia sales. How well has Elop achieved his promised migration, by which he said he'd achieve 1-to-1 conversion of the revenues Nokia did before his strategy via Symbian and the featurephones, to the new Lumia Windows based strategy and a diminishing proportion of featurephones. Here is the first picture for you. This is his 'success rate' so far in migrating his revenues. Makes you want to weep..


Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis on Nokia Data
This image may be freely used and shared


Yes, the left column is what Nokia earned out of handsets before this strategy. The right column is what it managed to migrate (the green part) and the remaining part not yet attempted to migrate. And the red part.. that is how much he has failed.. No wonder increasingly Elop is being called the worst CEO of any company. But we have more data and analysis..

HOW ABOUT MARKET SHARE THEN?


Yeah, lets see how Elop managed against his competitors. Here is the famous disaster diagram. The three lines, Nokia is the blue line, Apple is the green line and Samsung is the red line. When Elop took over, Nokia was literally twice as big as Apple and four times bigger than Samsung. After he announced his strategy (the peak in Nokia's line) ie at the so-called 'Elop Effect' this is what happened to the three:



The dark blue line is Windows Phone added to the Symbian numbers, the light blue line is Symbian alone
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis on Nokia Data
This image may be freely used and shared

Yes. When Elop took over, Nokia had 33% market share in smartphones. Today it is 4%. Here is your Elop Era market share collapse by Nokia (so far):

Q4 2010 - 29% (Elop first quarter in charge)
Q1 2011 - 24% (Elop announces new startegy at start of quarter)
Q2 2011 - 16%
Q3 2011 - 14%
Q4 2011 - 12% (Windows based Lumia phones start to sell)
Q1 2012 - 8%
Q2 2012 - 7% (Microsoft 'Osbornes' Nokia's Lumia line)
Q3 2012 - 4%

I think we can safely say, this strategy is a colossal failure, as is the lunatic who exchanged growing profitable sales of smartphones for this madness. This is a world-record fall in market share by any market leader in any industry, ever. This is yes, a world record in management failure. This is far faster than the collapse we saw of Siemens in mobile phones (they sold their business). Or Motorola (who went bankrupt). Or Palm (who sold their company to HP, which then put them out of their misery). This is FAR worse than the troubles over at RIM of Canada, who make the Blackberries.

Talking about RIM - Nokia fell behind Apple in smartphones in Q2 of 2011. Nokia fell behind Samsung in smartphones in Q3 of 2011. Nokia fell behind Huawei in Q2 of 2012. Now this quarter, Nokia tumbles out of the Top 5, it is now smaller in smartphone sales than RIM, HTC, ZTE, Sony, Lenovo too. Nokia is currently ranked 9th biggest smartphone maker and depending on LG and Motorola, Nokia might fall out of the Top 10. Nokia was bigger than these 5 companies - combined - when Elop took over.

THE DELUSIONAL CEO

This is what the CEO promised us in February 2011, that his strategy would deliver. This is the promise in revenues, this what was Elop sold to the Nokia Board and shareholders, as what his magical Microsoft trip would achieve. This is his revenue transition slide:


Source: TomiAhonen Consulting recreating Nokia strategy slides shown in February 2011
This image may be freely used and shared

I did a lot of analysis on that earlier last week in a blog entilted The Three Pillars of Nokia Strategy Have Failed. So now lets examine reality compared to that promise in the above. This is today, same items, same colors but what happened. This is those same elements but adjusted for Q3 data now.


Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis on Nokia Data
This image may be freely used and shared

This is what 'failing all legs of your strategy' literally looks like. Any executive who sees the above slide as promise, and this slide as execution, will fire instantly the person in charge.

NOW LET ME SELL YOU A BRIDGE

We have seen what Elop promised you, and what he then delivered. Now? Now he is promising again, promising Windows Phone 8 will save Nokia. Lets get some things clear. This, this pattern is plausible for Nokia transitions from one platform to another.


Source: TomiAhonen Consulting
This image may be freely used and shared

Yes, it is plausible, if the transition is done perfectly, that you might be able to convert customers 1 to 1 from the old platfrom to the new. But that means perfection. This is the more likely scenario:


Source: TomiAhonen Consulting
This image may be freely used and shared

Yes, that is obviously what happened with Elop's current strategy, he was losing customers at the transition. Now what is the fantasy. This is what people are imagining will happen with Windows Phone 8. This is the total fairytale imaginary world that has no touch with reality. This is utterly implausible pattern:

THE DELUSION DIAGRAM


Source: TomiAhonen Consulting
This image may be freely used and shared

This won't happen, people. That is the Delusion Diagram. Nokia will not now somehow magically recover those lost sales. That won't happen, don't delude yourself. Elop promises you lies like Romney, it won't happen. This is like Rumsfeld and Cheney promising 'we will be greeted as liberators'. After you find out the person is not credible, you cannot continue believing in the lies!

Elop is a criminal. He has so far wiped out 24.6 Billion Euros (32.2 Billion US Dollars) in Nokia revenues. (I'll come back later to calculate an estimate of the profit he has wiped out too, lets say it is more than 3 Billion Euros / 4 Billion dollars)

Now Elop is peddling a new scam. So while he utterly failed with Windows Phone 7.5 in 2011, he now promises to succeed with Windows Phone 8. Understand those pictures. This is AT BEST what he can now hope, this picture is his best hope but understand where the starting point is...


Source: TomiAhonen Consulting
This image may be freely used and shared

The starting point is not 4.4 Billion Euros in quarterly revenues and 29 million smartphones sold per quarter. If we start with this picture now, and start selling those Windows Phone 8 smartphones in Q4 of 2012, the starting point is 1 Billion Euros in quarterly revenues and 6.3 million smartphones. From this, he MIGHT - MIGHT achieve 1 to 1 conversion. But I am telling you, please trust me, this is the pattern you will see. We start from the massively cut level of 1 Billino Euros of revenues and 6.3 Million smartphones sold and 4% market share and with Windows Phone 8, we will get this pattern:


Source: TomiAhonen Consulting
This image may be freely used and shared

This is what you will get. How badly or well it will go, depends on how well Stephen Elop executes this second migration of his whole customer base, including all those frustrated and disappointed with Lumias so far.

TRUST ME PLEASE. The Windows Phone 8 based 'new Lumia' sales will be a FRACTION of what Nokia smartphones do now. The market share which is now 4% will be LESS with Windows Phone 8. This is a certain road to ruin for Nokia!

IS ELOP COMPETENT TO DO A SMARTPHONE MIGRATION FOR NOKIA?

This is then the evidence. Here in two pairs of slides, is the evidence what you can see from past performance of the CEO when he tried to migrate Nokia clients from Symbian to Windows Phone 7.5. This level of incompetence you can expect when Elop next attempts once again, to migrate Symbian and Windows Phone 7.5 customer to the new Windows Phone 8. This is his history now with Nokia. Like Winston Churchill said, those who refuse to learn from history, are condemned to repeat it. Do you want to let Elop repeat this 'performance'? Lets first take handsets in units. The Migration Success Rate, lets see the slide:


Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis on Nokia Data
This image may be freely used and shared

That my friends, is total failure. Now lets look at the same in money terms, the revenue migration so far. This is your competence of your CEO, Stephen Elop so far:


Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis on Nokia Data
This image may be freely used and shared

That is what the World's Worst CEO achieved the first time he tried. Are you seriously going to think this guy knows what he is doing when he now promises he'll migrate those remaining customers to yet another new Microsoft misadventure to Windows Phone 8?

Do not delude yourself! The year 2013 yes, we will see Windows Phone 8 sales. But look what the analysts now are saying. Earlier there was the hysteria that this would be the 'third ecosystem' (haha) and would have (gosh) 20% or even 28% market share. No. That will never happen. Now, not me, other analysts, are suggesting this Q4 and next year 2013, Windows Phone and Nokia Lumia series will have something in the range of 2% or 3% market share. One TENTH of the fantasy. That is your reality. Do not let yourself be fooled again. Windows Phone 8 will not somehow with 'imaginary economics' and 'magical thinking' achieve some astronomical jump to 5% or 8% or 12% market share!

This is obviously also what I have been forecasting, once we saw that Microsoft again destroyed its existing base, and started from zero with Windows Phone 8. Yes, I am saying next year expect 2% or 3% for Nokia Lumia and Windows Phone 8 definitely no more than 1% more from the other partners. (Bear in mind, I was as near to spot-on as is possible, on all previous quarters for Nokia's performance) No wonder Ballmer wants to manufacture his own tablets and smartphones - if his 'strategic partner' Nokia is this incompetent.

THE LEGACY CURVE - AKA THE DISASTER DIAGRAM

This is the slide that makes me weep. Nokia invented the smartphone. Nokia had QWERTY smarpthones for business before RIM's Blackberry. Nokia invented the consumer smartphone. Nokia had touch screens and an app store before the iPhone. Nokia saw the future, and was on the path to migrate its handset base, faster than any of its rivals, and ahead of the industry average, to smartphones. Nokia was ahead of the curve. When the mobile handset industry is evaluated in year 2020 the companies who are counted as winners will be those who achieved this transition. Obivously already Siemens, Motorola and Ericsson have failed totally in that transition. But Sony is now at over 80% migration rate and Samsung is near 50%.

When Elop took over Nokia was at 23% migration when the industry was at 20%. Since then, under Elop's management Nokia took the lead and regressed. The inflection point is - yes - the Elop Effect. There was nothing else that changed in February 2011, no hardware failure or radical new competitor product or tsunami hitting the factories or anything. Nokia's strong migration from featurephones to smartphones suddenly flipped from growth to decline. Exactly at the Elop Effect. It was not 'obsolete Symbian' that caused this or a failing app store or anything else. It was Elop's own actions. Elop has literally snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. This is the misery slide:


Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis on Nokia and industry data
This image may be freely used and shared

This is proof Elop is 100% incompetent to run that company. He took the company that made the second biggest profits in handsets, that was driven by its shift to smartphones, and torpedoed it all. Today Nokia's smarpthone migration rate is 7.5% and falling. Elop converted Nokia into the handset equivalent of Dell. (Exactly like I predicted this silly strategy would result)

LIAR LIAR PANTS ON FIRE

And Elop Elop Elop. Your lies, your lies. Remember hearing that USA sales were hot, that AT&T was selling so many Lumias Nokia couldn't even keep up? And that in China Windows Phone was outselling the iPhone. All those lies. Now we see the evidence. In North America, total Nokia mobile phone sales fell in just one quarter from 700,000 to 300,000. Yes that includes Canada too, and it includes dumbphones, and its not just AT&T but also T-Mobile on Lumia. Where is your USA miracle, Mr 'Call Me the General' then? And China? Nokia sales fell in units 27% from 7.9 million to 5.8 million, but - the revenues crashed 49% in China, so no, this was no Lumia 'surge' in China. How's that 'strategy' then, Mr Pretend-Patton? Elop, you are a disgrace and moron and a liar too. You must be fired, sued, investigated and barred from holding any corporate office. Nokia Board, you MUST fire this clown now!

Ok. That is the quick analysis of Nokia Q3 results. I will return, as usual, with a more deep analysis of some of Nokia's markets, and other details we can gather from the results and the conference call. That will be a separate blog soon.

And those, who need more info about the handset industry, consider the TomiAhonen Phone Book 2012 just released last week.

And those, who might want to consider forecasts about this industry from the most accurate forecaster in mobile, check out this TomiAhonen Mobile Forecast 2012-2015.

Comments

[Mark]

@Operational

You wrote: Nokia barely gets aby real money from Symbian. Most of the Symbian handsets are very low end and the 808 sells only small amounts.

Can't see how that is true, as Nokia smartphone ASP is EUR 155 and Symbian ASP is 151 EUR.

[Giacomo Di Giacomo]

Looks like my personal forecast of 1 May was accurate then... :-) http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/05/are-we-ready-for-the-numbers-nokia-smartphone-market-share-projection-2012-ends-year-at-3.html

[harri]

Finnish Verkkokauppa.com Top 10 list of phones sold: http://t.co/BI83lX8o

Even in Finland no one is buying Nokia. Game over, man.

[stoli89]

Curiously, Nokia's Revenue and EPS beat market expectations and its cash position has marginally improved. With NSN having returned to profitability and being prepped for sale, the turn in this turnaround is becoming clear. I also think Q4 will be a bloody one in terms of smartphone results simply because the WP8 product line will have only entered the picture after a third of the quarter has expired and Symbian sales will have hit near nadir. Legacy WP7 products are only getting residual action at this point, given the near term release of WP8, so there is a substantial vacuum left for Q4. Nevertheless, Q4 will also likely see the final big write-downs and, as well, signal the initial results for the 920/820 line in some key markets (e.g.: USA, FR, RU, IT, DE).

If WP8 proves marginally successful, the stock has good upside. If WP is able to enter the double digit marketshare territory by end 2013, then the upside will be substantial. I'm long.

[Mark Wilcox]

@stoll89 - by "its cash position has marginally improved" do you mean that they just lost less money this quarter than last? Net cash was down by another several hundred million again.

What's so different about WP8 vs WP7.5 that you think there's any chance of double digit marketshare by the end of next year?

[stoli89]

What happened at Nokia reminds me somewhat of a large Multinational that I worked for, insofar as being incredibly profitable for years and with culture that "WE ARE THE BEST". This "WE ARE THE BEST" mantra is a very good thing, but it can also have negative consequences. Sometimes, like our Old Guard management, the company believed it could only benchmark within itself...so SVC's, Markeshare, Quality measurements and other metrics were always bench-marked from within. It got so extreme, markets and factories competed internally for volume, didn't share best practices, and NEVER shared cost/pricing information, etc. There was literally no company wide buying power because employees were afraid to share with their counterparts in other geographic markets for fear of being fired. Even specifications on a global brand (hint, a cowboy that smokes) were altered to create internal barriers to entry on sourcing opportunities for certain markets.

What happened between Symbian and Meego strikes me as a similar case where the "WE ARE THE BEST" attitude takes over at the expense of missing out on what proved to be a clear and externally generated disruption. Ultimately this miss lies with executive management...they are paid to see the forest for the trees. Hell, they are paid enough to see the damn solar system, for that matter.

It's truly sad that Nokia was not able to strike a clear way internally, before external events outpaced their ability to transform without severe pain. But this is the sad norm for many successful companies. I dare say, Apple could see its Nokia moment in a few years. But great companies usually prevail...they may look a lot different coming out of a turnaround...but they continue to play the game hard.

I am long on Nokia for more than one reason, but its clear that the company has a long history of meeting these types of challenges.

[Winter]

And with W8 coming, can we be too pessimistic? Or too paranoid? Will Nokia make it to Q3 2013?

http://www.theverge.com/2012/10/17/3514556/windows-8-vs-windows-rt-surface-confused-microsoft-store-employees

"With an estimated $1.5 billion budget, Redmond is plastering subway stations, spraying walls and sidewalks, erecting website banners and planning holiday pop-up stores, not to mention running expensive commercials on national television. So far, Microsoft is focusing much of that effort on promoting its flagship Surface tablet, which went on pre-order yesterday.

There's only one problem: Microsoft's Surface RT doesn't actually run Windows 8.

The $499 tablet uses Windows RT, a stripped-down version of the operating system designed for low-power ARM chips like the kind you'll find in today's smartphones."

[zlutor]

@stoli89: maybe WP8(9)(10)(whoknows) will be successful because M$ will push it like crazy.

The problem is, Nokia gave up everything for WP7.x which is a big ZERO as we see...

They should have joined WP ecosystem now earliest - like Samsung and HTC do. Meanwhile - beside pushing Symbian and MeeGo - they should go for Android and earn big money from there...

Now Samsung (and even HTC) will come out with WP devices and they will start price war with Nokia. They can do it since they have diversified income sources but Nokia has NOTHING but WP (beside S40)!

Especially Samsung can finance this war 'forever' from its Android portfolio...

It is unbelievable how Elop and the board did not see it... :-(

[vladkr]

At least, Stephen Elop is happy : "however, we are pleased that we shifted Nokia Group to operating profitability on a non-IFRS basis."

As I see, assets are melting like snow in the sun. But the Goodwill seems a bit high to me (it's also the biggest part of assets). Can anyone explain that ?

[zlutor]

@vladkr: ...thanks to NSN and the dumb phones. Let's hope Q4 will be better... :-(

[Fabio Correa]

Depressing.

[Mats]

vladkr,

I believe part of that Goodwill is the really industry-leading patent portfolio and its value. There are some trademarks as well, but most of it should be from patents.

As I discussed with various PE companies, the two real assets left at Nokia at the moment are Patents and the Maps Group (roughly 70:30 in valuation)

[Tom Gorr]

Double digit marketshare....? It could be, but perhaps in some alternate universe where pigs can fly and human beings are nice to each other.

Here? Meh.

[QtFan]

"We're encouraging of HTC and Samsung and Microsoft or whomever to have devices in the market and to be making whatever investments that helps spur the ecosystem on," says Elop.
http://www.theverge.com/2012/10/18/3520492/nokia-ceo-stephen-elop-microsoft-surface-phone-comments

What?!?! He doesn't even try to hide it. His main objective is the success of WinPho not Nokia.

[felix mentalklutz]

Good blog, I like the facts and opinions. In spite of being an engineer, I am very tuned into people. I perceive you don't like Elop. ;-)
I think Nokia got itself into an impossible situation and neither Elop or anyone else is going to get them out of it. Same for RIM. Apple and Android will crush anyone making a competitive mass-market smartphone. You cannot compete with Free (Android) and Good (Apple) in a market which requires applications. As an old-timer, it reminds me of the early 80's where we had IBM OS, Apple OS, Commodore, Tandy, .. The small OS's were killed by the PC and Apple.

[peter123]

Regarding the sales/units figures, how's the data collected? Are discontinued devices included in the report? Only production devices?

[Tester]

@SaunUS:

Even if that's the gamble, Nokia will be out of money long before it'd become profitable.

Don't forget that Nokia is only a fraction of the WP market with much - MUCH - stronger companies to compete with.

If push comes to shove Samsung will eat them alive because they are present on all segments of the market and can be a lot more aggressive in their marketing efforts.

Even if it's true, it is utterly insane to bet an entire company on such a far reaching goal with no second leg to stand on.

Besides, who says that MS will conquer this market? The void RIM left is already being filled by iOS and Android.

[newbie reader]

> You cannot compete with Free (Android) and Good (Apple)

Let me now think some conspiracy :)

Elop is MS takeover trojan, that's not real conspiracy, that's just how it works. Were Nokia Board deluded, arrogant, or in collusion, i dont know, but Elop is apparent leader of takover team, dont call him crazy or stupid.

MS CEO acting on killing NokiaOS, is clear point, now conspiracy theory goes.

***What was the point of killing Nokia foot in OS realm? Suppose NokiaOS efforts are still here, where it leads us to?***

Point one, apparent: It competes with W8. Would there be still NokiaOS, then MS marketing guys could bla-bla only about "fourth ecosystem", and that sounds laughable :)

No, NokiaOS would not succeed iOS-style. Neither it would be 'burning platform'. I see hard, tough, mostly defensive battle. Nokia's envy, arrogance, artifical OS delays, whatever, but ***after hard struggle there is only one outcome possible***

Another free system, Android-like, qt-based, open. Could easily be better speed than java-based Android.

Point one++: NokiaOS cross-platform Qt-applications could penetrate W7 realm. Taking some of the battle on MS home turf.

Point two: ***NokiaOS would compete with Google's Android.***

Point three: Competition of two free OSes will make them BOTH better (for customer, not for companies) accelerate their technical growth and maturity. And this in turn will be a ***serious push to iOS.***

What in common has these three companies, Apple, Google and Microsoft? Who ALL, as we see, benefit from NokiaOS artifical death?

Some country over there needs all these tech profits back home, you european guys. Cold War is over, now it's China battle, and you do not border China, do you? So what's the purpose of your eating fat tech profits?

And all these profits should not be damaged en route, no accidents allowed. So shoot them, potential offenders.

[Tester]

@newbie reader:

That really makes sense...

... but only in a disturbed mind.

This whole conspiracy theory is nonsense because it hinges on a particular issue that would be a no-go for Microsoft - WP failing!

MS wants WP to succeed. Otherwise they wouldn't develop it.
Nokia fails because WP is failing. Had it not, Nokia would be a profitable company again.

And here the conspiracy comes falling down like the house of cards it actually is.

[tired]

@leebase

'So yes, it is fair to say that WP is vying for 3rd ecosystem. As dismal as WP sales have been, it's still in a far better platform/ecosystem position than RIM or Symbian or Bada or Meego or Tizen.'

Of course you are right. Even with 1 wp phone being used, just because it has apps, it IS the 3rd ecosystem.
Get real.

@Tester

Not failing, failed. And taking Nokia smartphones down with it.

Fire Elop. Keep wp. Keep Symbian. Go Jolla as Nokia let whole Meego team go, so no go for Harmattan or Meego. Migrate from Symbian to Jolla over the next year or 2.