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October 30, 2012



In general I like your forecasts when you're talking about smartphones and the mobile market. I must admit though that I like it when you make a bad prediction now and then just to keep you a bit humble and on you toes ;-) This time however I really hope your prediction is 100% correct!


I think Romney might've been able to seal a victory, if he had only spun his policy positions clockwise on Monday. Such abrupt changes to his policies might've neutralized Hurricane Sandy; if he had only timed them correctly!


This is a nice one again. I loved the analysis and enthralled at your canny prediction. Bold, yet explanatory.

I would love to see how your predictions go by next week after the elections. I bet that you'd be on the mark.


I think 290-248 is the most likely outcome (that's the RCP no-toss-ups map right now), but I think you are overestimating Obama's ground game. I suspect that most of the "undecideds" now are people who supported Obama but might stay home this time around. Obama was certainly campaigning the last 3 weeks as someone who thought for the first time that he might actually lose. Whether the hurricane has any impact remains to be seen. People tend to rally around the leader around the time of a disaster. That could move Virginia to his column. But maybe not.

The auto bailout was a massive spin job. People seem not to understand that bankruptcy doesn't mean a company disappears. All the major airlines except Southwest have declared bankruptcy since 2001, but they are all still flying and stronger than ever. Unlike GM and Chrysler, they didn't get special terms and the government didn't take a stake in them. 2009 was a bit different, but even so, the government's main impact was to insulate the labor unions from the full effects of the bankruptcy, with the tab picked up by the taxpayer.


I think another wild card is that polling has gotten a lot harder since more people have mobile phones. I'd have thought that you of all people would take that into account. People's cell phone numbers often reflect where they lived when they signed their first contract, rather than where they live now. That likely accounts for about 1% for Obama (as he does better in that demographic). But another wild card is that we just don't know how enthusiastic Obama's base is this year. He is leading among early voters, but by nowhere near the same margins as he did this time in 2008.

I also wonder what the impact of an electoral/popular vote split would be in 2012. 2000 may not be the best example. If Florida hadn't come down to a few hundred votes (i.e. if Bush had won by 100,000 or so), I don't think there would have been as much of an outcry as there was over the result, even though he'd have still lost the popular vote. 2012 could be a different story. For starters, we are far more partisan than 12 years ago, and times are worse.

The storm may make a split more likely. It may help Obama electorally in that he has his early votes in the bag in Virginia (really the only swing state affected by this). But it might depress turnout in safe Obama states like New York and New Jersey where people might skip the polls since they have better things to do and their votes don't matter anyway.

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I want to begin with so much stress. This will advantage myself later on to look for a better place, prepared with the right expertise.


Car is not a luxury anymore, it is a necessity and it can be purchased very easily within the budget, the reason is massive flow of used cars in the market.


Politics is so dull to me, Toni...

I want to know what you think of the Surface tablet, or that fat yellow turd, the Nokia 920.

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the 21st century is a book about how the new phenomenon of digitally connected communities.

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Yep, this is a nice one again. I loved the analysis and enthralled at your canny prediction. Bold, yet explanatory. I would love to see how your predictions go by next week after the elections!

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Hello! I know this is kinda off topic but I'd figured I'd ask. Would you be interested in xchanging links or maybe guest authoring a blog article or vice-versa? My blog addresses a lot of the same topics as yours and I think we could greatyly benefit from each other. If you might be interested feel free to shoot me an e-mail. I look forward to heafing from you! Superb blog by thhe way!

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Hey I know this is ooff topic but I was wondering if you knew of aany widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I've been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

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This blogpost is definitely cool and useful.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

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