For the Record: My projection of US election 2012 one week before voting

As I've made some comments on Twitter and a few blog entries here about the US Presidential election 2012, let me do my projection, now, one week before the election. This blog entry is not about mobile phones or tech or social media.

This year the polling on the candidates has been exceptionally stable. I would normally say one week before a tight election that its still too tight and difficult to call, but this time, the significant state votes seem to not move at all. I think most of the electorate has long since decided on President Obama and Governor Romney and the tiny slice of undecideds will not matter anymore, as they will roughly split near half in any case. The polls right now on average by RealClearPolitics say Romney is slightly ahead at 0.9% of the total popular vote nationally, but Obama holds a steady lead in the swing states, and a clear lead in the Electoral College. I think the Obama ground game will reverse the popular vote in the end (most analysts and pundits credit the Democrats as having a better ground game to 'turn out the vote' but also, they say Romney in 2012 is far better than McCain was in 2008, so the benefit to Obama will be smaller)

So I'm ready to call it. I say Obama takes 49% of the popular vote, barely above what Romney gets but significantly less than what Obama got in 2008. Romney will land in the 48% range (there are third party candidates who will take a couple of %). But that is not how the President is decided, the popular vote. It is decided by the Electoral College, ie by state and its size. By Electoral College this will not be a close election. I project Obama takes 303 Electoral College votes to Romney's 235. The solid states to both sides go without any surprises (Alabama, Utah, Texas etc vote safely Republican; while California, New York, Illinois etc vote safely Democratic). There are 9 battleground states, and I predict they split this way:

Florida goes safely Romney relatively early in the voting.
Nevada is not even close; also Wisconsin and Ohio go to Obama (and with Ohio, so goes the election).
The states of Iowa, New Hampshire and Colorado will be close but go to Obama. Colorado count may go long.
North Carolina will be a long count into the night, but in the end Romney takes the Tar Heel State by a slim margin.
Virginia will be most contested, decided by less than 100,000 votes but Obama ekes it out in the end, late in the night.

Thats how I see it. Obama will win the Electoral College and I believe it will be 303 EC votes for Obama, 235 EC votes for Romney. If its a really lucky day for the Republicans, Romney will lose by a ratio of only 290 EC votes to 248 EC votes if Romney manages to take Virginia too. And if its a good day for the President, that lands him also North Carolina and he'll win by 318 EC votes to 220 EC Votes. But thats about the game, there. Obama wins between anything like 290 to 318 Electoral College votes, and Romney loses with between 220 to 248 EC votes. And I'll call it 303 Obama, 235 Romney with Virginia going for the President in the end.

I can't see anything now changing this election anymore (this side of an Iranian nuclear bomb test). Romney cannot suddenly reverse enough of these battleground states of Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire and Colorado to take this election (and also carry Virginia and North Carolina and Florida, only Florida seems safely in Romney's hands right now).

Romney desperately needs Ohio with its 18 EC votes and that is not going to happen. When the exit polls are studied, the deciding factor which wins the State of Ohio for Obama will be the auto industry rescue and Romney's editorial 'Let Detroit Go Bankrupt'. Rather ironic for a 'car industry guy' son of big car boss, whose father also ran for President, to go down writing a negative editorial about the car industry. Thats how I see the US Presidential election this year 2012 and we will know in one week. I will be up all night of course watching the 24 hour news channels..

And to be clear, this is the full set of states I project Obama will carry on November 6: CA, CO, CT, DE, HI, IL, IA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, VA, WA, WI and the District of Colombia (Washington DC). 25 states and DC totalling 303 Electoral Votes.

For Romney, I project the challenger to carry these states: AL, AK, AZ, AR, FL, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NC, ND, OK, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY, also 25 states totalling 235 Electoral Votes.

PS those who don't know, I am NOT a US citizen I cannot vote in these elections, this is simply a fascination and hobby for me, following the US presidential elections over the decades (I've monitored them since Nixon-McGovern 1972, and lived in the USA from 1983-1995 so I saw closely the elections of Reagan-Mondale 1984, Bush 1-Dukakis 1988 and Bush 1-Clinton 1992) 

Comments

[Björn]

In general I like your forecasts when you're talking about smartphones and the mobile market. I must admit though that I like it when you make a bad prediction now and then just to keep you a bit humble and on you toes ;-) This time however I really hope your prediction is 100% correct!

[Stoli89]

I think Romney might've been able to seal a victory, if he had only spun his policy positions clockwise on Monday. Such abrupt changes to his policies might've neutralized Hurricane Sandy; if he had only timed them correctly!

[Afewgoodmen]

This is a nice one again. I loved the analysis and enthralled at your canny prediction. Bold, yet explanatory.

I would love to see how your predictions go by next week after the elections. I bet that you'd be on the mark.

[KPOM]

I think 290-248 is the most likely outcome (that's the RCP no-toss-ups map right now), but I think you are overestimating Obama's ground game. I suspect that most of the "undecideds" now are people who supported Obama but might stay home this time around. Obama was certainly campaigning the last 3 weeks as someone who thought for the first time that he might actually lose. Whether the hurricane has any impact remains to be seen. People tend to rally around the leader around the time of a disaster. That could move Virginia to his column. But maybe not.

The auto bailout was a massive spin job. People seem not to understand that bankruptcy doesn't mean a company disappears. All the major airlines except Southwest have declared bankruptcy since 2001, but they are all still flying and stronger than ever. Unlike GM and Chrysler, they didn't get special terms and the government didn't take a stake in them. 2009 was a bit different, but even so, the government's main impact was to insulate the labor unions from the full effects of the bankruptcy, with the tab picked up by the taxpayer.

[KPOM]

I think another wild card is that polling has gotten a lot harder since more people have mobile phones. I'd have thought that you of all people would take that into account. People's cell phone numbers often reflect where they lived when they signed their first contract, rather than where they live now. That likely accounts for about 1% for Obama (as he does better in that demographic). But another wild card is that we just don't know how enthusiastic Obama's base is this year. He is leading among early voters, but by nowhere near the same margins as he did this time in 2008.

I also wonder what the impact of an electoral/popular vote split would be in 2012. 2000 may not be the best example. If Florida hadn't come down to a few hundred votes (i.e. if Bush had won by 100,000 or so), I don't think there would have been as much of an outcry as there was over the result, even though he'd have still lost the popular vote. 2012 could be a different story. For starters, we are far more partisan than 12 years ago, and times are worse.

The storm may make a split more likely. It may help Obama electorally in that he has his early votes in the bag in Virginia (really the only swing state affected by this). But it might depress turnout in safe Obama states like New York and New Jersey where people might skip the polls since they have better things to do and their votes don't matter anyway.

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Yep, this is a nice one again. I loved the analysis and enthralled at your canny prediction. Bold, yet explanatory. I would love to see how your predictions go by next week after the elections!

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