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« Observations on Obama vs Romney Election Now, after the Conventions | Main | I Think the Wheels Just Came Off the Romney Campaign Today »

September 12, 2012

Comments

cycnus

Tomi,

I don't agree with you!!!
I think iphone 5 will sell a lot in number of sales, **BUT** it won't beat iphone 4S record in market percentage...

iphone 5 is way better than iphone 4S, but android pace is very fast and apple start to play catch up with Android.

I think Samsung Galaxy S3 + Samsung Galaxy Note 2, the all new Motorola RAZR, and also the next google nexus would take away some of apple user.

John Waclawsky

Microsoft always does astroturfing. It seems to have become part of their brand. I really don't think they know how to compete. WP8 is just a cruel time and money wasting developer joke and will be the end of Nokia. A very sad ending for a once great company!

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505124_162-43340158/astroturfing-antitrust-how-microsoft-is-crafting-the-grassroots-case-against-google/

CN

China. We seem to have interesting news.

First, Apple.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/864521-qualcomm-s-28nm-supply-woes-may-delay-a-china-mobile-iphone-5-launch

Then, Nokia. The doomed Nokia.

http://wmpoweruser.com/nokia-scores-chinas-largest-carrier-for-the-nokia-lumia-920/

Let me guess. China Mobile has until now been the Greatest of them all. But now, since TD-SCDMA has only a "tiny" amount of subscribers, only 70 Million out of close to 700 M total), this is not such a big deal. Right?

vladkr

@Baron : I don't agree with you often, but this time I do

Henry Sinn

I'm running a little social experiment about WHY people might buy the new iPhone.

Every new iPhone to date has had some compelling / functional REASON to get it.
[As Tomi has brought to our attention many time, it has being playing functional catch up]

This one, in my opinion, is a game changer..
[no more catch up]

Would appreciate any thoughts at http://henrysinn.com/iphone5

chithanh

@Baron95: "That is the innovation. This has never ever happened in any product. We never ever had the low cost producer also have the premium pricing leadership."

This is not entirely correct, the previous example is the MacBook Air, where Apple 1-upped everybody else when it came to sourcing aluminum unibodies[1]. Only heavy development and marketing support from Intel makes Ultrabooks somewhat viable.

[1] http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2012/07/apple-metal-chassis-domination/

khim

It's funny. It only took one year for Apple without Steve to lose the the sight of "puck" (remember the infamous "A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be"). I was kind of of skeptical about OODA loop theory ( http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=2975 ) because Apple has slowest OODA loop in the industry. But while Stive was alive he was able to compensate with bold moves which can not be easily replicated by rivals. Steve owned observe/orient phase and Tim had the luxiry to drive slowest yet most efficient decide/act phase in the industry.

Now we all clearly see how Apple moves on all cylinders in the directions of where the "puck" is! Today Apple has "premium smartphone price advantage" and "premium smartphone cost advantage". They are well positioned to bring records profits, but there are one tiny wrinkle in this plan : they still have just one phone model and they depend on mobile operators!

Why are these weaknesses are mild today and why they will be crippling tomorrow?

Well, Apple does not obtain these records profits directly from customers. They obtain them from mobile operators - which already have trouble subsidizing iPhone. Enter 2013 with it's credit crunch (which will probably be bigger then credit crunch of 2008). What happens? Mobile operators can not buy iPhones from Apple, that's what. Not as many as they did before, at least. They must either raise prices or delay payments or do something else. Whatever they do they can not continue to bring these "record profits" to Apple. And Apple have nothing to offer to these of them who are in trouble: there are no sun-$100 iPhone (unsibsidized) in sight! Not a pretty sight: both for operators but also - in slightly longer term - for Apple.

The critical question is: when exactly credit will dry up? This will determine the whole story: if it'll happen early in 2013 then Apple will be able to alter it's trajectory easily (and introduce iPhone Nano in September 2013 as if it was planned all along), if it'll happen too late then Apple will be able to suck more money from operators in the next year but will be less prepared WSHTF.

As for China Mobile and DoCoMo… again: it'll be interesting to see. "Young, affluent customers" will quickly become an oxymoron when unemployment among newgrads will go beyond 50% and closer to 100%. It'll be quite ironic if they'll sign up for the Apple's stranglehold right when the people which justify it will disappear.

Hotcandy

Hot topic for iPhone 5, iphone 5 is unveiled at china 12th September. Go through the news and exposured picture, it is not much updated based on iPhone 4S. just IOS 6 System , thinest more, more screen. the resolution is a litter change. if let me choose I will choose iPhone4S.

CN

@Baron

Thanks for trying to help me to see the point. I'm excited to see how the program kicks off between Apple, DoCoMo and CMCC.

What was the point I missed in regards of Nokia and China Mobile? You ignored this part in your response, but there must be something wrong with this one as well - I do miss he point, again. You must have noticed how bad it was when CMCC said no to previous versions of Lumia.

kevin

@khim: If the carriers run into cash-flow challenges due to subsidies, I'm sure Apple can open an Apple Bank to provide credit and fix that. After all, they have over $117B in cash and liquid securities. (GE and many other companies did the same thing a long long time ago.)

In any case, it's still a really big IF. Telecom companies tend to have little trouble getting credit (relative to other companies in other industries).

Elop is a flop

I predict that Stephen Elop will be fired once Nokia's share price drops below $1.50.

And that means real, real soon.

I'm sad for Nokia. I had owned many great Nokia phones: 8310, 3310, 3330, 6230i etc. Why won't they learn from history? No partner of Microsoft ever had a happy ending (Sendo, Nortel etc.). Fail to learn from history, and you're doomed to repeat it.

The real fatal blow to Nokia, in my opinion, is not the tanking share price, getting in bed with Microsoft, selling off of patents and assets, or even a dwindling market share. The real fatal blow to Nokia is the EXODUS of talented, experienced people from the company.

That's right, Stephen Elop, go ahead and cut more jobs and hire more inexperienced pro-Microsoft sycophants to surround yourself with. Your fantasy of a 'turd ecosystem' will never materialize. This is a two-horse race between iOS and Android. Enjoy fighting for scraps with RIM and Bada.

KPOM

The pre-sales sold out in 1 hour. It is looking like the iPhone 5 rollout will be a smashing success. Now that it has LTE it will be a bit more difficult for others to claim it is "outdated" even a few months from now. Sure, it lacks simultaneous voice and data over Verizon and Sprint, but I'm sure the 5S will take care of that.

John Waclawsky

Now here is some perspective of microsoft and Apple and (now Nokia working together against Open Source). A fascinating read and provide more insight into the dark side of microsoft Nokia partnership. Start at the third paragraph: It has to do with the Microsoft-Nokia licensing of some patents to non-practicing entity MOSAID. There is a dirty microsoft game afoot.

http://www.groklaw.net/article.php?story=20120913122706961

The good part is at: B. Firms Should Not Evade Their FRAND Obligations by Transfers to NPEs. There is more to this partnership than just pushing a loser WP8.

Henry Sinn

Leebase..

"It's why 30% of Android owners are looking to upgrade to the iPhone 5 and why 95% of existing iPhone customers will stick with the platform."

Really?

I'm seeing nothing but change the other direction 'downunder'.
People are going from Apple [and others] to Android. Not the other way around.

Did you note the 500m Android connections announcement recently?

canada goose parka

number or person you are looking for is one of the many who has opted out of having their phone number listed, you might give up immediately. But do not worry because if there is one thing the information age has given us, it is access to loads of information in mere minutes.

cycnus

It seems my previous post didn't get through... :(
Go to http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-ww-monthly-201108-201208

and change the worldwide into: Japan, China, philipine, uk, france, any other country

and you'll see that Android is gaining a lot.

kevin

@cycnus; @Henry Sinn: Surveys consistently show that 90%+ of iPhone owners plan to buy another iPhone, while being much lower for Android owners. That said, the smartphone market is still expanding at the lower cost end - where additional people are switching from featurephones to smartphones, and Android is taking almost all of them. This can be seen in the growth of ZTE, Huawei, and even Samsung (who has a full gamut of phones), and in the decline of the higher-end HTC, Motorola, Sony, and RIM.

Right or wrong, Apple may be willing to cede that market for the next couple of years, in the expectation that many of the smartphone newcomers will eventually want more (i.e., better ease-of-use, timely software upgrades, smooth ecosystem integration with tablet and PC devices) and switch to iPhones later.

cycnus

@Kevin,

My first, original post got stuck in the system because it's contain too many link. I was hoping that Tomi will 'approve' that post.

in that link, i post the link to some interesting fact. from statcounter. a quick note, a statcounter is not a sales number, but it's a commulative user.

First, go to http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-ww-monthly-201108-201208
and let see how android stealing the thunder from apple.

let's change the country to Japan, you could see that android and iphone were neck to neck.

let's change the country to china, you could see that symbian were CRASH big time, and replaced by android. Where's iphone, second best. so, we heard a lot of news that iphone is a big hit in china, but not number one.

let's go to HK, total cumulative user of Android in HK surpass total cumulative user of iphone as of Feb 2012, and the gap widening very big as of now.

Let's see malaysia, symbian CRASH, Android gain a lot from symbian user, iOS doing fine.

Now, let see the iOS leading country....

Let's see Great Britain, BB is starting their death spiral, iOS LEADING, but android gaining more than iOS.

Australia, iOS leading, but android is start to gain more too.

Singapore, same as GB and Australia, iOS is leading and peaked (starting to fall from cliff??), but android is gaining a lot, it seems to me that almost 90% all of the new phone sold might be android (thus android % going up big time).

France, iOS is leading, but android raise big time.

United Emirate Arab.... this is interesting, Symbian still ON TOP. iOS was second, but android manage to kick iOS just last month.

Saudi arabia, Symbian still leading too, BB on their death spiral, android on the rise, big time, and iOS still on the rise, but not a lot.

mexico, symbian CRASH, android gainning from symbian crash, iOS doing great, but not good enough.

India, android is on the rise too, iOS, somewhere on the middle

Germany, android start to beat iOS too

..
my point is....
apple love to bluff. they try to create a trend to make their device worth more than it should.....

and if you see the stat, you could see that apple starting to lost the war. YES, iphone 5 will sell a lot, but not as much as apple wanted. If they follow tomi advice to create the 'cheap' version, their market share could go up a lot. My take on this is they would only create the cheap version until the fat lady finish singing (apple see the cliff).

cycnus

another fun fact...
(i was wondering if this data valid.... ???)

I think we could use the statcounter data to see how well iphone retina display (iphone 4 & 4S) against other...

let start with United state
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_resolution-US-monthly-201109-201208
the retina display resolution (640x960) only manage at 3% total user. is apple 4 and 4S really sell well???

Change the country into singapore in the graph (i won't include the link, because if i post too many link, my post will be marked junk), this is interesting...
iphone is leading in mobileOS stats, but the retina display resolution is not on the graph, it's on 'other'. which mean most of the iphone sales were from the pre-iphone4 era.... another interesting data from singapore were 800x1280 manage to get almost 4%, which mean samsung galaxy note sale well.

Australia, 960x640 also on the 'other' in the stat

GB, also the same

so,
based on this stats i think with the introduction of iphone 5, iphone 4 might sell well (because of the reduced price).

Henry Sinn

Kevin, others,

Agree re lower end being swallowed up by Android. Will make the shift to iPhone even less likely by most of those people / users.

and

No-one has yet given me a solid read TO switch. There NO significant or real advantage over what you have NOW.

See comparison / more at http://henrysinn.com/iphone5

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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