So it didn't have NFC.. Yeah, we've seen the iPhone 5 now and there is a mild sense of disappointment. We had hoped for more (and there was no split in the iPhone product line to give us an iPhone Nano.. shame). But what did we get?
WHAT IS NEW
iPhone 5 finally breaks with the 3.5 inch screen size, and grows the screen to 4 inches. That is a big change but is nowhere near the biggest screen out there. When the iPhone originally was introduced, against most rivals it was the biggest screen (except some uberphones like the Nokia Communicator E90 which did have a 4 inch screen - back in year 2006 haha). The screen dimensions change to 16:9 format so the iPhone keeps the same width but is noticeably longer and helps make viewing movies and modern TV shows better. This is all good but is more of a catch-up to the rivals and is nowhere near the leadership where we see 5 inch jumboscreens on some smartphones already.
The camera stays at 8mp in nominal size but adds plenty of clever gimmicks and tricks and software, including a panorama photo feature that allows taking super-wide pictures running 28mp. Neat trick, kind of Apple-ish. I had hoped Apple would jump the mainstream and go for 12mp but no, they rather made the iPhone even thinner. Do we really want a thinner iPhone, is this as good a selling point as now in late 2012, a larger camera sensor would have been? But yeah, the inward camera adds its resolution to HD and there are lotsa nice little advances here, but nothing radical beyond the panorama feature.
LTE is the new top speed in terms of cellular connectivity. It is important in some markets especially the US market and brings the iPhone 5 to be on par with top-end smartphones, this is also good. What else do we get? Not really much. Yes, obviously, the new Apple iOS software version, and a faster processor and some technical tweaks here and there, but there was no NFC, no wireless charging etc. There is a new smaller connector meaning all old iPhone accessories are now useless and switching to this iPhone 5 means also buying new accessories, but that is life in high tech and Apple is no more guilty of this than other tech makers over time.
Its a bit thinner, a bit lighter, its battery runs longer.. Yeah, these are improvements that mostly make it seem like an iPhone 4S+. But because the screen is bigger for the first time ever, and the physical outside dimensions are clearly changed, this is legitimately a true new number for the iPhone series, its fair to call it the iPhone 5. What will likely happen, like always before, the first edition (base number iPhone) is a bit of a disappointment, but the S version a year later will be the far better model. So thats my review.. How will it do?
WHAT KIND OF SALES TO EXPECT
This iPhone 5 will sell like hot cakes. It will set the iPhone fanbase on fire, they will stand in line to get the iPhone with the biggest screen ever, and will love every tiny change in the maps or Siri or other parts in the whole package. If you are an iPhone owner - they have by far the best customer loyalty - of course if its time to upgrade to a new iPhone, you'll be wanting this iPhone 5. It will help turn the Q3 (calendar Quarter, not Apple fiscal quarter ie July-September quarter) sales into solid growth with long lines of iPhonistas stayhing overnight to be among the first to own the iFive. And then the masses will consider what to buy for Christmas and this iPhone 5 will show up in lots of stockings and propel Apple to its best quarter ever, in fact the best quarter of any company in any industry, ever, for the Q4 Christmas quarter (October-December quarter) in 2012. And then, don't expect any after-Christmas blues, as we get the Chinese New Year gift-giving season of the biggest smartphone market in the world, in Q1 of 2013, the iPhone 5 will be loved in China too and help bring a 'surprisingly' good Q1 January-March quarter for Apple the superb tech darling and Wall Street miracle company of the next nine months.
What kind of numbers? I'd say on VERY rough terms, expect iPhone Christmas sales Q4 to be about 58 million iPhones of all models, vs 37 million last Christmas, ie a growth of a whopping 57% in one year and exceeding the growth rate of the industry. For Q4 the iPhone would have about 25% market share of all smartphones and the Apple branded mobile phone handset will have roughly 11% global market share of all phones sold that quarter. Truly impressive statistics for this company that only 5 years ago entered the fiercely competitive mobile phone market with a peculiar unconventional touch-screen 2G featurephone called the iPhone that didn't even do apps at the time..
Obviously the iPhone 5 hysteria will also help push the whole Mac, iPod, iPad and iOS ecosystem along and keep Apple solidly in the mindset of all developers (700,000 total iOS apps, 450,000 of those for the iPhone itself).
For the full year, Apple's iPhone growth inches up again in market share just a bit. In total sales, expect 2012 calendar year full iPhone sales to end in the range of 145 to 150 million and this would give the iPhone a global market share of about 20% to 21%. What Apple really (REALLY, REALLY) needs to do, if they want to return to the strong growth years of 2007-2008-2009 when they simply gobbled up market share, is to move down in price with spreading the model range and introduce that iPhone Nano model I have been begging for on this blog now for two years.. The iPhone 5 will sell very well in affluent markets, but that is not where the smartphone industry is headed. We heard from Deloitte earlier this year, that 38% of all smartphones sold this year have an unsubsidised price of under 100 dollars. The unsubsidised price of the iPhone 5 is about 650 dollars and the unsubsidised price of the iPhoen 4S is about 600 dollars. These are not viable as mass market smartphones in Africa or India or much of where the global growth is now. The US and European markets are nearing sautration for smartphone migration already, even there the growth is in low-cost smartphones. But who am I to give advice to the most profitable company that ever existed haha, they are happy with the money they make, and don't care if some more profit (or happy new Apple iPhone customers) are left on the table..
A BIT ON COMPETITION
Just to keep it all in context, Samsung sold 50 million smartphones in Q2 vs Apple's 26 million iPhones, and the current Samsung Galaxy S3 and Galaxy Note and other Galaxy devices are very competitive in this space already. Expect some Samsung magic still to be announced before Christmas and Samsung will easily win the full year 2012 smartphone sales as the world's biggest smartphone maker. I also expect Samsung to rather easily beat the iPhone in the Christmas sales period, so if the iPhone does something like 58 million units, Samsung's total smartphone portfolio (which also includes bada and even Windows Phone 8 models) will sell something in the range of 70 million to 75 million smartphones for Christmas clearly exceeding total Apple iPhone sales worldwide. And against these, Nokia total sales on all three of its smartphone platforms might be in the scale of 6 or 7 million and total Windows Phone on all manufacturers (Nokia Lumia,.HTC, Samsung etc) and all Windows platforms (Windows Mobile, Windows Phone 7.x, Windows Phone 8) will do maybe 4 million. That is hardly your third ecosystem there haha. Remember just before Nokia's mad CEO Stephen Elop set his platform on fire just 18 months ago, Nokia sold more than all Apple iPhones and all Samsung smartphones - combined! Nokia did this with a highly profitable smartphone unit that grew sales in the previous year more than Apple or more than Samsung too..
For those who need to understand more about the mobile handset market, check out my TomiAhonen Phone Book which is just about to release its 2012 edition. And if you want to understand where this industry is headed, check out the TomiAhonen Mobile Forecast 2012-2015
The judgement here must be taken from a users view and not from tech gadget freaks , and from that view the whole story of iPhone 5 is just great . Usability first , in terms of with of the phone ( one hand usage) , battery life , easiness of use ( new connector ) , speed ( LTE , CPU , Graphics abilities judged together with battery life ) , integration with FB and Twitter ( look at the official video !) just outperforms other phones , thats why it will sell like hot cakes. Looking forward to see the navi in action in Europe , could be very dangerous for third party navigation apps.
Posted by: Reinhard Haberfellner | September 12, 2012 at 08:10 PM
Strong brand is a buffer that allows a failure in development. Apple just used the buffer - this device is 2 years old at the date of birth. Strong brand will carry it over Xmas, but after that...the cliff?
Posted by: Leading Analyst | September 12, 2012 at 08:31 PM
Yes, iPhone5 will sell like hot cakes.
It's very thin, made of glass and aluminum, great sensible improvements overall.
If you hold it in your hand, you WILL want to have it. It's available now!
Posted by: JJ | September 12, 2012 at 09:00 PM
People may be disappointed of the no-revolution at today's Apple's keynote, but Apple's strategy actually makes sense :
- improvements little by little is the best way to limit risks, keeping success. See Porsche for example, which improves its 911 little by little, and is still a best-seller even decades after the first model (that's also the leitmotiv of the whole aircraft industry : Airbus, Boeing, Mig, Sukhoi...)
- Apple will sell more Iphone 5 than Samsung and Nokia will sell WP8 because :
* it's available now (next week actually)
* it will be available for all markets (Chinese, Arabic, etc.) as there is no "regionalization" of the soft
* they don't get their current customers upset, as iOS6 is available for older devices... this way they keep their user's trust, and the latter will certainly replace their iPhone with a newer one, now or much later (it doesn't matter when if it's an iPhone)
Posted by: vladkr | September 12, 2012 at 09:03 PM
#apple 5 not impressive at all. Late to the show and dependent on Brand. Watch this space. Enter Nokia Lumia with Windows!
Posted by: MobileVi | September 12, 2012 at 09:18 PM
Yes Iphone 5 will sell like hot cakes mainly because of users like Reinhard Haberfellner. They just see everything what apple makes as perfect.
How I see Iphone 5 = it's just old fashioned. First of all 4" screen is pathetic. All competitors have 4,5 to 4,8" and some have 5+ inches screens. 4" was two or three years ago. Who really cares if it's a bit thinner and lighter, who really cares does your phone waight +-15 grams, nobody! But does people care wheter the screen is 4" or 4,8"(S3) Absolutely! That really affects how you can use your phone.
Of course there are some improvements but nothing super cool. I could never justify myself to buy this phone with that price it will have in Europe.
Posted by: Henri | September 12, 2012 at 09:20 PM
A6 processor is twice as A5 chip?! VOW! - And iPhone has ever been a slow one...
Posted by: JJ | September 12, 2012 at 09:36 PM
Bigger isn't always better when it comes to screens. I've used a Galaxy S3. It is too big. A 5" screen (such as on the Galaxy Note) is downright ridiculous. I can see Apple making the screen a little wider at some point in the future, but they aren't going to be making a "phablet" any time soon, if ever. There's no need to.
Posted by: KPOM | September 13, 2012 at 12:06 AM
Maybe Apple doesn't invest too much on its iPhone to prepare the after-smartphone era, in 5-6 years...
Posted by: vladkr | September 13, 2012 at 02:42 AM
Has everyone already forgotten the RAZR?
Small, thin, and light has always been highly valued by phone owners; back then, it was mainly balanced with battery life. Today, in the smartphone age, it also is balanced with display size.
I doubt Apple will make future iPhone display's any bigger (unless the average person's hands start getting bigger). Apple's priority is easy one-handed use (as they said at the intro and on the promo video).
Posted by: kevin | September 13, 2012 at 02:51 AM
With this iPhone5 announce we can see that the mobile phone company is now defunct (this will mostly be small OEMs making dumbphones) most of the other players are at the mercy of either Android or Microsoft. The companies that will do well are the ones which offer competitive services. Hardware won't matter much and will become saturated (similar to the PC market).
Posted by: TDC_123 | September 13, 2012 at 05:06 AM
i think its not gotta sell that much
specs are very.. 2011, its not a innovating phone.
there not a single feature that make it stand out off the rest.
and samsung lg, htc, even nokia have better phones.
its not bad, but it have no reason to pick it up unless u are locked to apple ecosystem
Posted by: jo | September 13, 2012 at 05:23 AM
Several mobile phone vendors have collapsed due to lack of innovation, and profiting on their old concepts for too long. With Apple the situation is a bit different and a lot better due to the ecosystem - one who has purchased Apple compatible gear or apps is less likely to make the switch.
It is most interesting to see how click whores (like Tomi) react on this launch. For Nokia it seems nothing is enough at launch. Apple is now testing with how little they can get away with.
The competition has now excellent opportunity to stretch even further ahead of iP5 in terms of innovation and technology. Lets see how they use the given 12 months.
Posted by: Leading Analyst | September 13, 2012 at 05:58 AM
"Neat trick, kind of Apple-ish."
Thanks ;)
http://blogs.sonymobile.com/products/2011/11/03/amazing-3d-and-2d-panorama-pictures-with-your-xperia%E2%84%A2-phone/
Posted by: Troed Sångberg | September 13, 2012 at 07:56 AM
Well, the new IPhone is disappointing, to say the least. As a developer, although I'm a Linux and MeeGo Fan, I'm much more excited about the prospects of Nokia an WP8.
I've been diving into Win Metro lately, and I think Microsoft got something there. Combine that with Nokia's services (maps, etc.), I think they might have a winning combination after all.
Posted by: fritz | September 13, 2012 at 08:13 AM
@ExNokian
Yes, we had a panorama software even on Nokia N90. But, it was unstable pain in the ass (it's slightly better now) when you have to follow the frames and move carefully as you're told to by your phone. I can be wrong, but it seems that Apple iPanorama is much more smoother and user friendly. (Well, I can be wrong here. It's only first impression).
@kevin
Moto RAZR is thin, yes, you can even shave with it. But it's flat and huge in your hand. It's not one-hand-use-friendly as the phone should be.
If your needs is close to 5" screen, may be it's better to consider a tablet?
Posted by: Naikon | September 13, 2012 at 08:26 AM
@fritz
If you are going to astroturf at least work with your template a little more to spice things up. Must have seen your comment with exactly the same talking points in exactly the same order on at least half a dozen websites now.
One gets a definite impression that MS + Nokia marketing head hunted the best and the brightest from the (former) Iraqi Ministry of Information.
Posted by: DB | September 13, 2012 at 10:32 AM
Panorama delivers 28MP pics. Wow! 28 MP! Wait a second...most of the smartphones out there have panoramic apps and it works simply by smartly merging photos across the panorama. Let's see 7MP (the approx. output at 16:9 format) x 4 = 28MP. Wow...that's true innovation. Just don't tell my primary school math teacher!
I do wonder if the large install base of current IPhone 4S owners will jump at a chance to upgrade. For me, the changes are very incremental.
Posted by: Stoli89 | September 13, 2012 at 11:51 AM
The details are what the iPhone 5 gets right. It has the first Cortex A15 processor, which is faster and more power efficient than the Cortex A9 designs out there right now. From what I've read the screen is gorgeous and the most striking feature is how light this phone is given that it bests the 4S in just about every way. Apple will sell a lot of these. As far as the smartphone market, I think we've hit a plateau until something really radical, like foldable screens, are viable on a mass scale. What will the Galaxy SIV bring besides a faster processor, perhaps better battery life, and maybe some minor cosmetic changes? Likely not much that a casual user will actually notice.
What's interesting is how favorably a lot of "tech geeks" are seeing the Lumia 920. Tomi's comments notwithstanding, I think the Lumia 920 was impressive from a hardware standpoint. It needs to be, since Nokia is fighting for survival. If it were running Android 4.1, it would sell like hotcakes. But it isn't. That's its biggest problem.
Posted by: KPOM | September 13, 2012 at 12:22 PM
Microsoft does a better job of panoramas with their Photosynth application and it's available for Windows Phone AND iPhone!
Posted by: Poifan | September 13, 2012 at 03:03 PM