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August 22, 2012


Sander van der Wal

Samsung not proceeding with Bada and Tizen (delaying patforms in a platform war is very much the same as killing them) and publicly thinking about Windows 8, is very interesting.

It means that Bada and Tizen got no traction and/or Samsung is not able to develop both platforms quickly enough. It is a sign of weakness. I would hate to be a Bada-only software developer right now. (Not that being a Bada-only developer was smart in the first place, and is is why.)


@John Waclawsky

I am not sure we really disagree. I do not say that your point wasn't one of the factors too. I only say this wasn't the only factor but there are more which played a role.

I agree, and so did various judges, that Microsoft is using its desktop monopoly to push compering products to the market with an advantage.competition cannot offer.
I also agree that there deep pockets are essential.
But I do not agree that this two factors alone make a winner. There is more involved otherwise they would always win (when those two factors apply / are applied) what is just not the case.


The playbook is a tablet and not a phone. RIM's core business are mobile phones and.the did not deliver a BB10 phone yet.

Also the playbook is an intermedia state. The reason why there is no BB10 phone yet is that they do not just take whats on the playbook and.put it on a phone. They extend, improve, align that platform to make BB10 a well received and sold device.

That is in contrast to Nokia who has Lumia with there all in one WP7 strategy in the market, available for consumers, since a while now.

> now an even newer OS "real soon now". Sounds a LOT like Nokia.

For Nokia its the second try. The WP7 Lumia was the first try (note that I do not differ between WP 7.5 and 7.8 Lumia here what is important) and it failed horrible. The WP8 Lumia is thr second AND last try. We, those who work in that industry, know how it will end.

RIM so far failed to bring there first try to the market. They may beginning of next year or maybe even later or never.

The result is indeed.the same but the reasons are very different.

> RIM's product is more competitive than Nokias

RIM's product, BB10, is not on the market. That makes.them less competative to just ANY other product that is in the market.

In fact every other.product who sold at least one unit is doing better then RIM cause.till today RIM sold zero BB10 units.

> We tried to show Tomi that marketshare did not mean all he thought it did.

There are two errors I see here. First your intwrpretation of what Tomi wrote is not even close to what he really wrote. Second you try to bring the point on the table that he is wrong to name or explain why. Those both errors are at your side and you need to solve.them. There is not much we can do about it.


> RIM. Their stubborn refusal to accept the fact that a smartphone is more than a corporate device was their downfall.

The coperate section is RIM's core business and thats what they focus on. They are not focused on market share (unlike Android) but.focus.on profit (like Apple to a certain degree).

They are aware of the drawbacks what is why you see the.CEO running around.looking for partners that have a focus on the mass consumer market.

Its just that all that is future and not present or past like with Nokia. The one, Nokia, tried and failed. The other,RIM, did not try (yet) and hence failed (so far). That is the difference.

> That was one of the reasons Nokia became one of, if not THE most trusted brands on the planet. Not any more.

I fully agree. There waa once.the slogan "once a Nokia, always a Nokia" what was.cause you could expect from any of the devices they had a certain quality, certain futures and a certain handling. The usability and polished features where always strong selling points. Nokia understood to keep that from device to device and improve in small steps from there.
Then came Lumia. All was thrown away, usability totaly different, important features missing, incompatible. They broke the contract, lost the trust and people switched to alternates.
Now the slogan became: "Once a Nokia, never again a Nokia". Just ask all thr lost customers and those who are stuck with there outdated, unsupported WP7 Lumia now.

@Sander van der Wal

> delaying patforms in a platform war is very much the same as killing them

No, its not. Delaying platforms is very much like delaying them.

> publicly thinking about Windows 8

Do you have a source? As far as we know the author of the sami-article draw that conclusion by himself.


I think Elop's biggest crime is that he gave Nokia to MS on silver plate without any alternative plan, without way out, without any levers Nokia could use to press MS, i.e. the infamous "no plan B" strategy.

And that wasn't mistake, he did that deliberately.



That article completely lacks sources. The claim that Samsung is dropping Tizen and Bada would be interesting if true, but I don't see why I should take it seriously.

Mark Wilcox

@Spawn You completely missed my point. If you've seen my writing elsewhere on this subject then you'll know that I believe Elop's strategic and comms errors are responsible for accelerating Nokia's decline and that he should be fired (and most of the board along with him).

What I'm arguing against here is that Tomi seems to be implying that Elop is responsible for Microsoft's failure with Windows Phone as well. Nokia have made the improvements to WP7 (e.g. maps and navigation) that were within their power in the timeframe they had - the execution there has been much faster than most of Nokia's other software efforts.

Microsoft is failing with Windows Phone because they have built a product the market doesn't want at the moment - nothing Nokia could have done to change that. Can't possibly be Elop's fault.

The odd conception that Microsoft should retain the market share from Windows Mobile to Windows Phone, or that Nokia should be able to migrate customers from Symbian to Windows Phone when the new platform is so completely different (higher average cost of devices, fewer features & radically different UX) is the only thing that makes there seem to be a story here. The reality is simply Nokia managed to increase Windows Phone market share from where it was by going "all in" but only by a tiny fraction of what was hoped for.



I never had a whole lot of trust for Nokia. The Maemo 1-4 devices (Nokia 700, N800, N810 tablets) didn't get a lot of updates, and none of my Nokia dumbphones got any updates. Maybe it's because I live in the planet's backwaters, where Symbian is uncommon and iPhones are innovative.

But when we bought the Maemo 1-4 devices, we knew that they were not the finished "mass-market" product. I waited so long for that product, so I hate Elop for killing the N9. Since the new Nokia is Elop run rampant, I therefore hate Nokia, too.

Tomasz R.

Windows Phone 7 had too many limitations to be successful on a high-end smartphone market. Like support for only one, small screen resolution, or support for only a single core processor. Windows 8 doesn't solve this problem, it just puts the limit bars higher, but not enough to be competitive in the near future.

Android is much better here, as they allow to produce whatever the manufacturer wishes - any screen resolution and size, number of cores etc.

Nexus S


For an article without sources it got quite some traction:

Well, I am inclined to believe it's true. There are no new Bada devices released since IFA last year and none announced. And looking at how much you can find about Tizen's "open" development on the web, I sincerely doubt it will play any major role in the war of ecosystems even in 2013


All is not just Elop's fault as he's strongly backed (by the board, by MS, by some other people I don't know).

It's interesting to read this article from 2008, which shows Elop's reputation is not new (and it doesn't even mention Boston Chicken disaster) :


Microsoft's problem is their success. And that's not a compliment. They've succeeded by being very cutthroat nasty businessmen. Not by virtue of a good product competing as fairly as possible in the marketplace. In computing they've sued, bought patents, destroyed competition and dictated terms / contracts to the oems. Now they're taking that same approach in the mobile game. And as you've rightly pointed out, carriers can and will tell you to go take a leap if you don't play nice with them. For Microsoft, and the current ms crowd now in control of nokia, they simply brought that mindset with them. And its killing them. They can't and won't ever eat humble pie on this. They believe they're #1 and I'm sure are stunned as to why the masses aren't flocking to them and their fantastic best in class mobile OS. It must be someone elses fault, because they will never believe its theirs.


"Microsoft has already started production of its own tablets, it will do its own smartphones next."

Interesting prediction. Any idea when it would be coming out?

But in any case, I don't think it could succeed. Microsoft has little experience in designing mobile hardware, and the telecoms hate the company with a passion.


@Mark Wilcox

> I believe Elop's strategic and comms errors are responsible for accelerating Nokia's decline

But that, his strategy decisions, are not responsible for the Lumia disaster result?
If thats your argumentation then we indeed disagree.

> arguing against ... Elop is responsible for Microsoft's failure with Windows Phone

He was and is responsible for the Nokia Lumia product. He is responsible that Nokia lost so many customers and was able to convert so less of them from Symbian to Lumia.

The RESULT of HIS failure is that WP7 failed too cause Lumia was there last hope.
Its true, and I think neither me or Tomi argue against, that WP7 failed to get significant market share before Nokia jumped in. So, yes, Microsoft failed long before. But the point here is that Nokia was going to change that. There, Elop's, promise was "WP7 is going to be the 3th ecosystem with us". Elop and Ballmer did stand at that stage and promised exactly that to happen CAUSE of the NokiaSoft partnership.

That was what Nokia had to offer, put on the table. The possibility to turn around the WP7 story.
Please remember what Elop and Ballmer say. WP7 qas a failure cause noone else focused on it 100%. Nokia would do and hence.would succeed where others failed. That was the whole point of the burning platform memo, of aborting Symbian and.MeeGo and.putting all eggs into the WP7 Lumia basket.

Sure Microsoft jumped on that offer. WP7 was failed at that time and Nokia's Elop promised to turn around the story, make it a success.
Nokia's Elop destroyed all alternate ways Nokia had and did bind the survival of Nokia on the success (or failure) of that promise to make WP7 a success.
Nokia's Elop was very clear in that either there succeed or Nokia is gone. "There is no plan B".

That Nokia failed to turn around the WP7 story was Elops failure. That is why Nokia is in all those problems now.
Microsoft lost money. There WP7 was a failure and Nokia did not change it. For Microsoft not much was lost cause of Nokia BUT thet could have win something, they don't. Nokia is near dead now cause of that, Elop's, two central failures to 1) bot be able to turn around WP7 and 2) bet everytging the survival and health of Nokia, onto being able to turn around WP7.

> Nokia have made the improvements ... that were within their power in the timeframe they had - the execution there has been much faster

And there you made the point why Elop is responsible for the WP7 Lumia failure yourself.

They got WP7 from Microsoft and where supposed to improve it, make a product customers would love and sell ot to lots of customers.
They, Nokia's Elop, failed on improving it and execution to make it a well selling product. This was Nokia's part of the deal, this was what they promised to Microsoft and.there stack-holders and they (Nokia!) failed.

Your argument for the failure are timespan and execution time? This are both things that whwre decided and applied in Nokia, not in Microsoft. If time and execution was the problem, and yes it certainly was ONE of tge problems, then you delay, optimize execution, improve or do whatever to nake the final Nokia(!) product a success. This was 100% Elop's decision, on his table to plan, decide and execute. Microsoft had NOTHING to do with that part of the story.

> Microsoft is failing with Windows Phone because they have built a product the market doesn't want at the moment - nothing Nokia could have done to change that.

But that is exactly what they (Nokia) was supposed to do, what they promised to do.

Why to do think Bokia even tried AFTER WP7 was in the markwt and proven to have failed already for a while?
Because Elop promised they can make it a success. That was his offer to Microsoft, that was and still is his stand when asked about WP7 Lumia.

Elop did see the software, he and his team tested Lumia prototypes long before they came to the market. It was Nokia's decision that yes, Lumia is ready and customers will buy it. They decided to bring it to the market NOW, not polish future, not address problems, add better art work, improve, etc. No, it qas.ready for prime time. Elop's decision. Now it turns out it wasn't. Now you yourself say that the product was not ready. Who is responsible for Lumia being that bad? Nokia, Elop. Its there product.


@Nexus S

The failure of bada and Tizen would not be a surprise. I don't think Intel has ever led a successful project to make a consumer Linux device. They were so close to pulling it off with Meego, if it weren't for those meddling Microsoft guys.

But, no, the blogosphere's echo chamber does not count as validation. Eldar Murtazin's analysis looks interesting, but it's not proof.

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I tend not to write many comments, but I browsed a few remarks here Communities Dominate Brands: When 2 plus 2 equals less than 2. Thats right,not less than 4, I meant less than 2. The Microsoft Point of View to the Nokia dead-end. I actually do have a couple of questions for you if you don't mind. Is it just me or does it look as if like some of the comments come across like they are written by brain dead folks? :-P And, if you are writing on additional sites, I would like to follow you. Would you list of the complete urls of your social community sites like your Facebook page, twitter feed, or linkedin profile?

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