So its time to do the update for the 2011 final numbers of computer sales, when all types of computing devices are included. So I mean when we count traditional mainframes and servers, the PCs we know and love from desktops to laptops and netbooks, onto tablet PCs like the iPad, and the smartphones, as well as that lingering PDA market which is still typified by the iPod Touch. (We do not add basic 'dumbphones' nor gaming platforms or DVD players etc as these are not considered to be true computers, even as in many cases of featurephones, we could install some apps and games). So this is the new normal, when all devices that are fairly considered computers - devices that users can reprogram, in other words, that the devices have their own OS and users can install apps.
By this definition - and please readers do remember, all major PC makers have already accepted that smartphones are indeed computers, so don't bother to argue about that oldfashioned view that a smartphone would not be a proper computer, we do reach dizzying heights - the total computer market hit 950 million units sold last year. The computer market as thus defined, grew a massive 47% in just one year from 646 million units in 2010, and this growth was all driven by huge growth in smartphones and tablets, the legacy PC market was stagnant. And also just so you know, the 60 million unit tablet-market is projected by many analysts to pass 100 million in size this year, so yes, tablets are roughly one seventh the size of smartphones - yes, the smartphone market alone is 7 times bigger than the tablet market..
So lets look at this computer industry as thus defined. It splits up this way in the year 2011: 50% of all computers sold were smartphones, 37% traditional PCs (of which now a majority are laptops not desktops), 6% were tablet PCs like the iPad, 5% were PDAs like the iPod Touch, and 1% were servers. And yes, obviously four out of five computers sold today is a portable computer. No wonder Apple calls itself a mobile company (and congrats to Apple BTW for becoming most valuable company of all time and also generating the biggest profits - that was all after Apple decided to shift from the legacy PC market to the mobile market). So how does the 2011 global computer market look? Can you spell Apple? Look at this:
LARGEST COMPUTER MAKERS WHEN SMARTPHONES & TABLETS INCLUDED
Rank (was) . . Brand . . . . . . Units 2011 . . . Market Share 2011
1 (1) . . . . . . . Apple . . . . . . 195.5 M . . . . . 21%
2 (8) . . . . . . . Samsung . . . 104.9 M . . . . . 11%
3 (2) . . . . . . . Nokia . . . . . . 77.3 M . . . . . . 8%
4 (3) . . . . . . . HP . . . . . . . . 64.5 M . . . . . . 7%
5 (4) . . . . . . . RIM . . . . . . . . 54.5 M . . . . . . 6%
6 (7) . . . . . . . Lenovo . . . . . . 49.9 M . . . . . . 5%
7 (6) . . . . . . . Dell . . . . . . . . 46.6 M . . . . . . 5%
8 (9) . . . . . . . HTC . . . . . . . . 44.6 M . . . . . . 5%
9 (5) . . . . . . . Acer . . . . . . . . 41.3 M . . . . . . 4%
10 (-) . . . . . . Sony . . . . . . . . 31.8 M . . . . . . 3%
. . . . . . . . . . Others . . . . . . 240.1 M . . . . . 25%
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 950.0 M
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting from company and industry data, August 2012
This data and this table may be freely shared
So there you have it. Apple has grown its lead massively from last year when it took the number 1 position from Nokia. Samsung also has grown from 8th ranking to 2nd. And for the first time the Top 3 are all by manufacturers whose primary product on this chart is.. a smartphone. In fact every 'traditional' PC maker has fallen down in the rankings.
And what of HP? Just tumbling down on the rankings? Once Hewlett-Packard was clearly the biggest computer maker, not anymore. And sadly, HP had the keys to this future too, when it bought Palm but then with the new CEO carousel, they lost track of their future and today, HP falling down yet another notch on this list. And as a new service, lets also do a rough estimate of the market shares by operating system:
LARGEST OPERATING SYSTEMS OF COMPUTERS WHEN SMARTPHONES & TABLETS INCLUDED
Rank . . Brand . . . . . . Units 2011 . . . Market Share 2011
1 . . . . . Windows . . . . 291 M . . . . . . 31%
2 . . . . . Android . . . . . 218 M . . . . . . 23%
3 . . . . . iOS . . . . . . . . 196 M . . . . . . 21%
4 . . . . . Symbian . . . . . 81 M . . . . . . . 9%
5 . . . . . Blackberry . . . 55 M . . . . . . . 6%
. . . . . . Others . . . . . . 110 M . . . . . . 12%
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . 950 M
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting from company and industry data, August 2012
This data and this table may be freely shared
And yes, you can see the catastrophy that faces Microsoft, who once had over 80% of the computer market and also had 12% market share in smartphones with Windows Mobile. Microsoft could have been well poised to survive this transition into the newest computing era if it had nurtured its broad coalition to provide Windows based smartphones (which included Samsung, Sony, Motorola, LG, Dell, Lenovo etc and in 2011, Nokia too). But now on the smartphone side, Windows Phone is down to 3% market share (and falling, with Nokia the partner utterly failing with this OS) so Microsoft is stuck watching the diminishing share of the legacy computer market, where Android and iOS divvy-up the future markets of smartphones and tablets.. No wonder Microsoft threw Nokia under the bus. (And no, Windows Phone 8 will not help in smartphones, Windows 8 will be able to extend Microsoft's life in that diminishing slice which is the traditional PC market, but it will be Android and iOS who rule smartphones and tablets, and next year, Windows Phone 8 will be happy to hit the 3% market share it held in smartphones this past Q2). I have already said, that we will soon see Android outselling all Windows devices, the trend is unstoppable, inevitable.
If you arrived to this blog from the PC industry and didn't know the smartphone side is already bigger, here is the breakdown of just the smartphone sector, for the full year 2011 market shares.
About this blog, please don't bother to write if you are one of those luddites who still thinks like a caveman that the smartphone is for some reason 'not a proper computer'. We had those arguments years ago, go back to the cave you came from, I will delete all comments now in 2012 who waste the time of my readers attempting to argue that a smartphone is not a computer. We passed the point when each of the biggest PC makers, Dell, HP, Lenovo, Acer, Asus, Toshiba and Apple - have all said in public that yes, a smartphone is a computer. Don't bring that tired old argument to this blog, I won't have it anymore.
But, as I have been reporting on this phenomenon, if you want to see last year's chart, it is here. And honestly, as the big computer makers have all already agreed that a smartphone is a computer, then why can't we have some of the big analyst houses like Gartner, IDC etc who report on that data individually, give us also the comprehensive count for this whole industry? Isn't it about time?
You may freely share this info and write about it and use the chart if you want.
One plug, for those who are interested in deeper numbers on the handset industry, not just smartphones but also the 'dumbphones' parts, including market shares, operating systems, average prices, feature sets, installed bases etc etc etc, please look at the TomiAhonen Phone Book, the 2012 edition is almost ready, so the special offer to get two for one, is about to end, hurry to get your set now. See full table of contents and more info at TomiAhonen Phone Book 2012.
Just to be clear, I suggested 'average' values because I think 'top computer makers list' should be valued by how much 'computing value' they delivered to customers.
Thus ranking should satisfy following:
1) if one vendor sells same number of same type devices as other vendor, it should be counted equal, regardless if one vendor was able to get more revenue due to better brand, marketing etc. Example, if IBM sell 100K servers and HP sell 100k servers, but IBM get 50% more revenue, I consider them equal. Or if Apple sell 10M phones, Samsung sell 10M phones, but Apple has 50% more revenue AND 70% more profit, I still consider them same from point of 'top computer makers' - they all made same 'amount of computer value' for us , customers
2) but if one vendor sells one smartphone and other vendor sells one server, I do not consider them equal, since vendor that sold server delivered more 'computing value' to customer
It is easy to see that counting units sold nicely satisfy #1, and thus I always prefer seeing comparisons in sold units of smartphones, as opposed to revenuer or even worse, profits.
But its easy to see that #2 is NOT satisfied by number of units, and is better satisfied by revenues - although revenues fail at #1.
Therefore BEST approach, that satisfy both criteria, is to define average value for specific class of device, and then multiply number of units sold by those average value numbers. Device classes are more or less obvious, Tomi mentioned them in article, and I also listed them in previous post: smartphones, tablets, notebooks, desktops, servers, mainframes. In future you could add 'Smart TV' after tablets etc.
By using industry wide average number, if Apple sold 10M smartphones, Samsung sold 12M smartphones and IBM sold 100k servers, and average industry values are 200$ per smartphone, 100k$ per server, then you rank IBM as first with 10B$, Samsung as 2nd with 2.4B$ and Apple as 3rd with 2B$. Numbers are imaginary and incorrect, and just used for example.
Posted by: lost | September 04, 2012 at 12:05 PM
Tomi et al.:
From a recent Wall Street Journal article: "Despite the difficulties, Finns have continued to buy into Nokia's stock. Finns—both private individuals and institutions—owned 24% of Nokia's total share capital at the end of June this year, up from 16% before Mr. Elop announced his new strategy in early 2011."
Posted by: Eurofan | September 04, 2012 at 09:54 PM
The iPhone 5 isn't flawless. The hardware is not really the problem, but a lack of OS improvements. The saying used to be Apple knew what we wanted before we did. The current truth is its customers are much more informed in regards to technology and the industry.
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