Wisdom of the Tweets - another Twittercontest, now guess Lumia Q2 sales

Hi readers. You may be interested in a Twittercontest I am running now, I just announced it. Guess the exact number of Nokia Lumia smartphone sales using the Windows Phone OS up to the nearest one decimal point. Winner gets an ebook.

So yes, go to Twitter, send me a Tweet - to @tomiahonen - with the Lumia sales number you expect for Nokia to report tomorrow 19 July in the Q2 quarterly results (and/or in its related Conference Call to analysts).

If Nokia is not giving the exact number of Lumia sold in Q2, but rather gives a cumulative number since launch, then we shall use the 2.6 Million previous total sales through Q1 and subtract that from the new total. So if Nokia now says 4.7M, we subtract 2.6M to get 2.1M sales for Q2. And for the purposes of this contest, if Nokia only talks 'shipments' we shall use that as a synonym for 'sales' even though we know its not the same thing, eh..

What is in it for the winner? One of my ebooks of his or her choice, ie the TomiAhonen Almanac, the TomiAhonen Phone Book, or one of my 3 Pearls volumes, Vol 1: Mobile Advertising, Vol 2: Mobile Social Networking, or Pearls Vol 3: Mobile Money. You can see all my books (ebooks, printed books and reports) at this link: Tomi Books.

If you want some background info and don't intimately remember the Lumia sales figures and market share context, here are the two previous quarters in full smartphone market share picture. Year 2011 fourth quarter Q4 smartphone market shares including Lumia sales are here: Q4 in Electric Boogaloo. And the numbers for Q1 of this year, 2012 are here including Lumia in Q1 results for Digital Jamboree.

We will not limit the entries to 'first come-first served' so we will accept multiple entries of the same number of millions, but each entrant on Twitter may only enter one guess. I will count your first guess. We close the contest 1 hour before Nokia announces tomorrow on 19 July.

Also please note, if Nokia does not release any official Lumia sales or shipments number during 19 July in its Q2 results or the related Conference Call, then we cannot know for sure, and this contest will end without a winner. But as Nokia did announce the Lumia sales number for Q4 (sort of) and for Q1, we can expect it to do so also tomorrow as all the world eyes are on the Lumianumber.

About 'fudging'. Its quite possible Nokia will try to fudge the Lumia numbers, not being very precise. So for the purposes of this contest, we will take any number Nokia actually announces as real, so if it says 'over 5 million cumulative' we take that as 5.0M (and then subtract the previous 2.6M). But if Nokia fudges the other way, saying 'under' a number, like 'nearly 3M this quarter' then we will take it 100,000 under that number, so if they say 'under 3M' then we use the number of 2.9M for the purposes of this contest.

I will show all the submitted guesses here when the contest has closed, about an hour before Nokia announces its Q2 results. Good luck!

PS - Do NOT post your entries here on this blog! They will be ignored. We run this contest on Twitter, ok?

Comments

[peter]

you should to spare out your text because it's hard to read. see you on twitter!

[Tomi T Ahonen]

peter, there is some problem at Typepad today, obviously normally I do that. Cheers

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[n900lover]

I think the problem is nokia releases the numbers in "sort of" way. So if they say more than three millions, is it 3.1 or 3.2?

[vladkr]

And, are the Free/promotional phones included in the sales?

I bet they will say "We sold a lot of Lumia, less than expected, but still a lot more than HTC and Samsung". Is it correct, or do you really need precise figures Nokia won't ever give ?

[vladkr]

Another contest you can organize :

When will Nokia share reach the 1 Euro line?

I think tomorrow it will be close, but not 1 Euro yet... maybe in one or two months

[Bloodymirova]

If we are to believe this graph here:

http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Q2-2012-US-Smartphone-manufacturers-share-updated.png

There still are 3 times more Nokia Symbian devices than Nokia Lumia devices in the US (0.9% vs 0.3%). Keeping in mind that Symbian has been around for much longer this is not so shocking. The kicker here is that after the most expensive marketing campaign in mobile phone history and giving away phones for free, the Lumia line (in the market for over a quarter) has gained...0.3% market share. They aren't even the biggest WP7 device provider - Samsung is.

Having in mind they sacrificed their entire existing and thriving market (screwing many Symbian devs in the process and killing off a huge ecosystem) this is beyond horrid.

So, I'd say, around 3mln devices, and I think that's even too optimistic.

[zlutor]

So, the number is: 4 million...
http://www.results.nokia.com/results/Nokia_results2012Q2e.pdf

[Kenny]

Is the 4 million sold a cumulative figure for Q1 and Q2 or just for Q2?

[Zoro]

Just Q2。。。

[peter]

finally not so bad but it's still bad.

[vladkr]

What's interesting is how much they earned with that.

Maybe they sold (or gave for free) 4M Lumias, but overall, they sold less smart devices than in Q1 (and of course than Q2 2011).

Anyway, this time Elop was good at communicating, as he managed to present catastrophic results as "not that bad", mainly thanks to NSN (he once wanted to get rid of) and few "industrial-prostitution" (selling assets to MS for ridiculous prices)

[zlutor]

@vladkr: Hah, the good, old NSN... :-)

Many friends here frequently claims it worth nothing and (finally) it is able to contribute to the top line...
On the other hand there are lots of thing to be improved there a9as well) before we can be happy. But step-by-step it gets better...

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