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« Winners of Summarize Ahonen Contest - Best Tweets shrinking 30,000 word monsterblog about Elop as worst CEO, into 140 characters of one Tweet | Main | Wisdom of the Tweets - another Twittercontest, now guess Lumia Q2 sales »

July 12, 2012



@Spawn, @Rune: "it's not impossible to port WP8 on older devices, but the cost of doing that would be very high and the benefit very little" - that is a technical reason - I can accept it.

Of course, current Lumia users are most probably not so happy. The question whether Nokia was aware it when they selected WP as main platform or not. Did they know it?

If the answer is yes - well, then there must be some questions coming int the next annual meeting of shareholders to Elop. If there will be Nokia and Elop will be the CEO to be asked...

On the other hand I think WP8 devices will be competitive. The sad thing is that Nokia has spent huge amount of money on advertising WP7.x phones and I do not know whether there will be enough money left to finance the big party (WP8 devices)...

Samsung and Huawei has lots of money, for sure...


@So Vatar

> No, I do not make up any numbers, but I read about expectations.

Those expectations are what you should question. Microsoft and Nokia went on a PR war. First it was UK, then US and now China where Lumia is doing well (all proven wrong). Then we had the story Lumia outsells iPhone in China, wrong. Lumia is bestseller on T-Online and yet the german T-Online canceled its plan to offer Lumia in germany. Then the Amazon bestseller stpry and yet Lumia got 0.3% market share. We have the 250% customer.sarisfaction story and yet Lumia has highest return-rates in Nokias history. And so on and on.

Also not forget that the official Ballmer/Elop statement was that Lumia sells BELOW expectations.
They did not say,how mich below, They do not publish numbers. Now we see why and how much below the expectations the Lumia sold.

It becomes clear why Ballmer canceled the Nokia exclusive partnership, why he osborned Lumia so early, why Lumia is sold at ZERO cent today, why the new Nokia chairman now changed the official statement that there is no plan B to there is one and so on and on.

> February 2011 brought a total shift of strategy, a sell off, a wrong and for Nokia incompatible strategy, and a horrible execution by Elop that brought one huge mistake after the other.

Yes, unbelievable. And he is still CEO and has the support to go on!

> Nokia gave away the world in return for 0.3 Mio Lumias sold in the US.

Nokia was an international company. Being the prime example for world fomination, for global thinking and a global focus.
They change that. That was why a non-Finn, a US Microsoftie was selected. That is when the decision was done to shift thar global focus to a US focus.
That Elop then aborted the world is somehow consequent. That he even failed in the US with the strong Microsoft & AT&T partnerships even against other WP7 offers like from the global focused non-US centric Samsung and HTC is ... a sign, a statement, a hammertone.

"In mobile of you focus on the US and ignore the world yoy will fail on both"

> And why are you still pretending that WP8 will be different for you?

Because if not the BOD and Elop would have to admit that they did a.mistake, a huge mistake that killed Nokia, a unique.mistake in history. Who would like to have any of those responsible for that in his company? The carriers of all those who haf and have a say are done, finished. They will keep the course cause they cannot turn around, they themselfs destroyed all bridges they passed. The.will keep on to not lose face, not lose carrier, not lose money.



> Jolla Mobile is not a treath for Nokia

From looking at the Lumia sales even Windows CE is a treath to Nokia.
They killed of MeeGo, well tries, and did not sold N9 in major markets cause it was a threath to Lumia which equals to a threath to Nokia this days.

> or any other major mobile phone vendor.

There is demand and while Jolla may not sell the amount of devices Nokia would have sold (when offered in major makets and not killed before), they will sell them well I am sure.
But at this point in time we can only guess. Maybe they fail cause the product is to different to the N9 and does not fill the/a demand or maybe it will be different but way better and even confince all those that would not have bought a N9?
Nothing is impossible at this point in time.

> It's a small company emplying under 100 persons.

Most big companies startes small. Some even in garages.


> On the other hand I think WP8 devices will be competitive.

WP8 devices may competative but will the new Lumia be against other WP8 competition? I have my doubts.
I also have my doubts they could compete against a Microsoft Windows Phone. I think it is clear by now that Microsoft is working on an own WP8 phone device.
I think Nokia has not much left (cash, R&D, marketing, customers, partners, products) to differ, to compete.

> Samsung and Huawei has lots of money, for sure...

and Samsung knows how to use that money effectively.

There WinPhones would very likely sell better even without marketing then any Nokia WP8 Lumia like it was the case with WP7 already. Also lets not forget HTC.


Actually, I am thinking... What if Jolla is Nokia's way out of the MS partnership? It's a no-risk undertaking:
1) Let leaving employees build phones based on Meego/Mer. That way it is not Nokia building the phones, so not violating their contract with MS.
2) Support them without spending too many resources
3a) If they do not succeed, not much harm done. Just a start-up that failed
3b) If they do succeed, there is Nokia's Plan B.
3c) Or if Nokia goes under before success is determined, Jolla can go ahead on its own.

Tomi T Ahonen

Just about the Nielsen numbers and analysis

Hi all, I wanted to comment just on the Nielsen (and ComScore) numbers. Remember Nielsen (and ComScore) measure a different thing, they measure installed base. So for example HTC based smartphones using Windows Phone have been around for 2 years, and when Nielsen measures now how many people have them, its no surprise they come out ahead of Nokia's Lumia. That doesn't mean Lumia currently is necessarily selling less than HTC, it is a historical consequence of installed base. There can be analysis of changes in installed base, which is more complex and imprecise.

What we DO know, from Nielsen (and ComScore) is the new sales of Nokia Lumia series, because that was only introduced this Spring. So the cumulative Windows Phone on Nokia installed base numbers are consistent with the sales of Lumia in the past 4-5 months or so, since T-Mobile launched the first Lumia in the USA. So in a rare case, Nielsen 'installed base' numbers for Nokia Lumia happen to coincide with total sales as well. But we can't accurately compare those numbers to the installed base of say Symbian or HTC Windows Phone or other numbers over the past years..

Please do keep the discussions going, I will return with some specific direct comments too, soon.

Tomi Ahonen :-)


@Spawn: "WP8 devices may competative but will the new Lumia be against other WP8 competition? I have my doubts" - any reason? If they will do not do anything but use the golden design of N9 with proper screen resolution, decent chipset - it will be O.K. I guess...

Unfortunately it might not be any better than the ones from Samsung, etc. In that case it will be a tough competition. Samsung will have all the profit of Android wold and it can start bloodbath any time with pressured prices on WP8 front...

We will see...


Breaking news! :-)

"Jolla Ltd. and China’s Largest Smartphone Retail Chain D.Phone Sign Product Sales Agreement" - What!?!?!

Chinas largest anything signs contract with a startup having no real product?!?
Because they "see potential in them". Just because they promised to deliver MeeGo devices?!?

OMG. What could have Nokia achieved there... :-(


Asymco assesses based on data from Nielsen and comScore that there have been only 330000 (yes, 330 thousand) Lumias sold in the US.


Another evidence of the fact that Microsoft does not get developers in this fast changing world is this blog post by Toshl guys (myself used to be a team member there):

I do admit that Nokia isnt perfect either, especially if the app uses mix of Symbian and QT, plus the QA requirements change without any prior notice (especially in the Maemo/Meego story), but they are still a lot better than MS Wp7 stuff. Plus, download figures of Toshl Symbian VS N9 VS Wp7 speak for themselves.



"Update: Nielsen has contacted us to make it clear they do not support multiplying their numbers with Comscore numbers, saying they measure subtly different elements of the phone market. While the math appear reasonable they therefore do not feel the 300,000 number is accurate."

Read what Tomi says at 06:45.


Hi folks, greetz to Tomi...
My comment about
Interesting is that 2 sources with different "measurement system" got same results... So, Lumia is sold in US (at all) in 300K pieces... which brings us to other amazing data: Nokia & MS spent 450$ on marketing for each unit, to sell Lumia for - 50$.
Unbelievable. It looks that it is MS that is shaking, not just Lumia...


@Andraz, great article from Toshl. It is truly kafkaesk, as so many bigger companies are... ;-)

Ralph P. Jones

Maybe due to it's reluctant to change, Nokia nowadays takes a smaller and smaller part in the market. From it I learned a lot, the most important is to keep change.


Put this under "wild speculation"...

maybe a prototype from before they signed with MS?



You clearly don't understand that the USA is the largest smartphone market by value in the world. You clearly don't understand that the vast majority of apps and Internet/Cloud services that make smartphones truly useful are in the USA.


Aaaaah, Baron95 is definitely back :)


seriously Baron95, sometimes, when I read your comments, it feels like watching US TV-shows of the 80s.


Are you people seriously buying this 50% price reduction on Lumia? Do you really think any mobile device is sold for the upfront on a 1-3 year contract summing up in even 2000USD??
You know people, here in Finland you can buy any iPhone, Galaxy S III or Lumia for NO MONEY at all. You only agree to pay your operator 30-60€ every month for the next few years... So I guess Apple, Samsung and Nokia are that desperate they give their phones for free in Finland.


@maximum jee jee
> How it suddenly got so important to gain market share in US that you SELL YOUR SOUL AND ENDANGER THE WHOLE FUTURE OF THE COMPANY.

To quote Nokia's head of sale Chris Weber from August 2011: "The reality is if we are not successful with Windows Phone, it doesn't matter what we do (elsewhere)." He further added "North America is a priority for Nokia (...) because it is a key market for Microsoft."



Just for your information : World GDP=$69,659,626M vs US GDP=$15,094,025M
15/69 = about 21%, not 50% as you claim... even if you add Canada, you'll reach barely 24%.

Anyway, that's not the main point. Do you really think the rest of the world can't live with US consumers?

Most European car manufacturers do... many service providers / industries do.

Let's talk about Mobile industry, as it's the main subject after all.

Are US an important market? Sure they are, just like China, India, Europe
Are US the most important market? I don't think so.

What are the Largest mobile network operators in the World ?
1 - China Mobile
2 - Vodafone (UK)
3 - Telenor (Norway)
4 - Airtel (India)
5 - America Movil (Mexico)
Where are the United-States ?

let me see... ah, here it is : Verizon, 18th place (45% owned by UK Vodafone by the way) and it's 6 times smaller than China Mobile.

So companies like Fly, Huawei and some other mobile phone manufacturers make "happy" results without the US.

And finally, about Silicon Valley: the only reason why it's still a pole in mobile technology, is because few companies' owners (Apple, Google) decided it's a nice place to live (and they're absolutely right).

But, in reality, engineers/specialists at Google, Apple, Samsung (oh, this one isn't Silicon Valley based!) come from all over the world, have subsidiaries with specialists all over the world, and manufacture... in Asia... for... Asian customers (mainly).

So Silicon Valley is just a luxury mail-box.

Some red necks used to think the same about automotive industry : "Detroit rules"... no Detroit used to rule. Same with Silicon Valley.

Apple/Microsoft without Asian suppliers are nothing. Google-Android without Samsung, HTC... is nothing

The balance isn't in the North American side any more. Face it.


So you want to deal with Data-traffic?

Have a look at Cisco analysis and forecasts :

It's quite obvious biggest traffic is in Europe and Asia.

AT&T has LTE, cool ! France has a train able to reach 574kph (357mph) but I can assure you that no one in France travels in a train at such speeds, as I can tell you no one in the US (or Canada) reaches 40MB/s with their mobile (most can't even reach such speed at home).

Roger's HSPA+ network for example in Canada is more than 3 times slower than MTS' network in Russia for example, wherever you are in a city centre or in a suburb (I would also add that Russia/France have unlimited plans, which don't exist in Canada).

There is absolutely no figure showing any North-American leadership, appart the fact they were the first to put a "LTE" sticker on the phones they sell.

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