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« Winners of Summarize Ahonen Contest - Best Tweets shrinking 30,000 word monsterblog about Elop as worst CEO, into 140 characters of one Tweet | Main | Wisdom of the Tweets - another Twittercontest, now guess Lumia Q2 sales »

July 12, 2012

Comments

Louis

"You may not like it, but it is what it is. Only Android, iOS and Windows Phone are gaining share."

@Baron: Throwing WP in there is a bit silly. It's down with the "other" platforms in its absolute numbers, and would be indistinguishable except for Microsoft's willingness to throw money at developers to keep it relevant in the app space.

The basic problem is that iOS disrupted the market with multi-touch, apps, and high end hardware. Android and Sammy disrupted the market with a modern OS that can be just downloaded and aggressive exploitation of Moore's law to bring it to niches where Apple isn't.

iOS is the profit leader and place where important new ideas and business models get validated. Android is the market share leader and is gulping up dumb phone users.

All the others are basically symmetric---by which I mean copies. That means they get new hardware and software last, and the companies backing them need to spend their own money or time to get required apps.

I don't see any of them catching up in the short term. To draw large numbers of users, they'll need something more distinctive. Different colored phones or slightly different gestures/more megapixels isn't going to be enough.

doto

Very good post Mr HCE! I aree with you.

AtTheBottomOfTheHilton

I'd say it's already mission accomplished. Their goal was to kill a competitor and they did it. Meego and Symbian are gone, now Microsoft should focus on securing important assets from Nokia. The assets are mainly patents, IPs and Navteq and with Nokia going bankrupt they can easily get, cheaply as well. Microsoft doesn't need Nokia as OEM, statistics show that Nokia is not selling better than Samsung or HTC, also the Lumia phones is not done by Nokia anyway. Basically manufacturing is secured without Nokia.

The partnership between Microsoft and Nokia is going really bad. I've seen that Nokia blames Microsoft for some bugs in the Lumia phones and that is really a bad sign. When the blame game starts, then you know that it will not work out and no company wants to deal with the problems. Microsoft therefore wants to get out and the best would be to see that Nokia goes bankrupt so that the can secure what is valuable from Nokia.

In practice Microsoft can start to create their own phones but that could be a bad move because that might alienate Samsung and HTC or other OEMs. However, it seems like Steve Ballmer and his MS management has snowed in on Apple, wants to become like Apple and that means that they might go on to create their own HW anyway.

N80 IE

@Baron: you are totally wrong - the Bada is quite a great system (both from a consumer and developer perspective). The App market might not be big but it offers all possible app that I need. The only complaint I had was it didn't do Skype. I have used Iphone, Symbian and Android phones before. Have u used a Bada phone before to make such an assessment?

Tomi T Ahonen

Baron!

(Welcome back). You KNOW the rules. Stick to the topic. That item was NOT ONCE mentioned in this blog article, so of course your comment(s) are removed. Stick to the point, and your comments are welcome. This blog talked about Microsoft Windows Phone, Windows Mobile and Symbian. If you want to discuss other OS's go to the article that deals with those. If you can't play nice, maybe we don't want you here. You've been around this blog for years, you know the rules

Tomi Ahonen

Flavio

Tomi!
You've teached history before it happens!!!(you can use it!)
At this time, I think Nokia is unfixable and there is no way out.
As no one bought RIM, I think no one will even try to buy Nokia.
RIM has nice devices,known from everybody, is smaller, easier, cheaper, etc, etc, etc.
Nokia is a very much bigger difficult problem.
At that moment, Nokia is a very danger huge risky bet.
It's a bad place to any money.
I think it is an unstopable alone death dive, hopeless and without brave angels....
Sorry but I dare you to change:
Don't fire Elop !!!
He must be blamed !!!


Tgee

The number per os doesn't give a good picture of nokia sales for win and it seems that Samsung.and htc are still above nokia in the us market http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/?p=32494

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Tgee

Just on the duelling stats - Nielsen measures installed base, Kantar measures new sales, so Nielsen's stats will have legacy owners of past Windows Phone and Windows Mobile handsets from 2011, 2010, 2009 even.. And the trends in Nielsen support the Kantar view, the two are not in conflict

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Spawn

@HCE

> I don't see how this move benefits Microsoft.

They decided to focus all there resources on Windows 8 and not need to care about WP7 any longer.
Nokia has no write-access to WP7 and so they cannot do themselfs. Microsoft has fixed human resources and they put them all on Windows 8 now rather then wasting any to make Nokia customers happy.
Microsoft benefits with focus, with not having to split there resources, with not having to move money, time and resources from W8 to W7.

> no incentive for Lumia customers to stay with the Windows Phone

Its Nokia Lumia and not Microsoft Lumia, not Nokia WinPhone.
Customer bought a Nokia and not a WinPhone. They will remember it was a Nokia and now the know that Nokia arn't the best any longer. Next time the customer will be carefull about Nokia. If it runs Symbian, WP7 or WP8 is not that important.
Microsoft goes on with a whole new product. They do not believe Nokia is going to make it, is surviving long enough, is able to bring anything to the table Microsoft can benefit from. Microsoft has other partners, has its own Surface. Nokia has no alternate, they are doomed.
Customers will try other Microsoft partners. They may not try Nokia again (with the very same productline, Lumia, but WP8) that disappointed them so much.

Not so long there was a famous say here in germany that goes like: Once a Nokia, always a Nokia!
See how its not about S40, not about Symbian, not about WP. Customers do not even know there is a difference beside a different look and feel. It was about Nokia brand. That suffers most. Not WP, not Microsoft. They only stayed where they where before with WP (2-4%) and did not lost, did not destroyed the trust people had in the brand.
> huge negative effect on existing phone sales

> WP phones ... absolutely requires dual core processors to run.

Can you back that statement up with a source? It would be insane to introduce such,a,limitation to Windows 8 and such a limitation would not be cause of technical reasons. Remember that WP8 is using the NT-kernel which never ever had and never ever will get such stupid limitations.
I think it would not take much. Microsoft would just need to spend some resources into making NFC and 2-3 other things optional the Lumia hw does not have and that is all. They do not like to spend any resources to make Nokia's 0.3% customers happy. Microsoft is not going for 0.something percent. They are going for the theird ecosystem, for Android and Apple. Nokia did show they are no help, of not use, are not able to make that happen. Microsoft learns, changed strategy and moves on. Nokia can not. Elop to bind tyem and burned all alternates. Nokia is doomed.

Spawn

@AtTheBottomOfTheHilton

You nailed it. There will be a Surface Phone. Either that or they give up the phone-segment.

@spawn (talking with myself)

Tomi wrote about the Nokia brand. The ex Symbian-ex wrote about it. Those who can remember last year and are not living in the US do remember well that Nokia was present everywhere. Go into a phone-shop and >50% of the products where Nokia.
Beside the brand another reason for that is, that Nokia had a huge segment. Low-end, touchscreen, physical keyboards. phones with camera and camera with phones, small, big, robust, sexy, indoor, outdoor, slim, fluid, pink with yellow points and white with black stripes. Whatever crazy taste you have, Nokia was there to fit it.
Others only,had the same boring, black rectangle only different from there competitors by there own logo they printed on there.

That was also the plan for MeeGo. Flood the market with different models for every taste. N9, N950 where only the first two.

Then came Elop, looks at Apple and decides: Lets do different! Only one model, Lumia, for all!
They are not Apple. They where better (in terms of market share). They gave up, tried ti be like Apple (failed of course) and lost on the way what made them strong. And till today there is only the same Lumia. Boring, poor Nokia that once was so hip.

zlutor

@Tomi: "if Ballmer believed that Nokia can climb out of this with Microsoft, he'd let the Lumia series be upgraded to Windows Phone 8" - it is not so simple...

Current lumias just simply CANNOT BE updated updated to be fully functioning WP8 phones due to hw limitations. There are missing hw components. HW components not supported by current WP7.x.

So either Nokia silently builds the components into current Lumias (getting activated when WP8 update is received) or no meaningfull update.

Since usable chipsets are _really_ limited in case of WP7.x first option is not viable. Long story in short, they screwed it up... :-(

But it was not Ballmer or Elop who made the decision. It is the consequence of early adaptation of WP7.x... Elop and BOD members must have known it...

They try to save their face with WP7.8 - and we will see what it will be in reality...

On the other hand I do not see it as the real problem (WP7.x->WP7.8, no WP8). It happens in desktop world (too). Even with iOS. All new OSs have minimum hw requirement. It is normal. Everybody accepts it.

When Windows7 was announced they immediately started giving free coupons for the ones buying their computers with the 'obsolete' Vista OS thus consumers did not feel themselves cheated. The big difference is in that case the sold hw was capable of running the coming OS...

The real problem is they announced WP8 several months earlier than first capable device is available. Who made this decision and why?

Spawn

@spawn (again, to much voices in my head - haha(c) Tomi)

Another point I need to paint in that discussion:

When Elop commanded others to find matching words to put his mindset into a manifest that became later the burning platform memo, he wrote...
... that by the end of 2011 there will only be one MeeGo phone (typical lie igoring the 950) and made that,one of the arguments why Nokia is burning.

That implies he is going to change that, no? But what happened?
AFTER the N9 came to market the Lumia came too. A exact copy of the N9. And up to 2013 there is only that single model!
Even every of Muenchhausen's stories contained more truth then what Elop makes up.
As Nokia-employee I would have a hard time following such a leader while he jumps of platforms and taies the whole Nokia lemmings with him.
"Lets jump! When we hit ground everything will be better!" Elop, the suicide General.

denmike

The Nielsen 2012Q2 US numbers are also out now:

http://www.engadget.com/2012/07/12/nielsen-has-android-near-52-percent-of-us-smartphone-share-in-q2/

What I find interesting is the minuscule WP7 market share. It's less than half of Windows Mobile - an OS with absolutely no support anymore. It should be very easy to get those users to switch to your new WP7 platform - if it was any good. Even a dead platform such as Palm/WebOS is only outperformed by WP7 with a factor of 2. Absolutely amazing!

Assuming that the Nokia move into WP7 was an attempt to penetrate the US market this can also only be seen as a failure, as they only have 23% of the US WP7 market.

OTOH I'm astonished that a single company can still hold 1/3 of the market with less than a handful of products.

Spawn

@zlutor

> Current lumias just simply CANNOT BE updated updated ... due to hw limitations

Disable NFC in Windows 8 and be fine. Remember that the same Windows 8 is running on desktops which have no NFC either. Its already possible to disable certain parts, replacr them with others or plug in new functionality, support different hardware with Windows 8.
Arguing that cannot be done with phones while it can be done with the very same system on tablets and desktops is a pure excuse.

> chipsets

Lumia uses Qualcomm chipsets. Qualcomm was one of thr first who supported Windows 8.
Source: https://developer.qualcomm.com/mobile-development/mobile-platforms/windows-8-rt

> But it was not Ballmer or Elop who made the decision.

It was no Elop who made that decision. That is correct. It was Ballmer. He osborned Nokia.
Seems osborning Nokia's product-lines becomes a trend. Every CEO should have done that at least once in his carrier!

> Elop and BOD members must have known it...

They very likely got the news via mainstream-press same time like all of us.
Ballmer just does not care about his ex-partner, his ex-soldier Elop any longer. He does not need to. Nokia has nothing worth of interest left. Carrion eaters are waiting to pick up what remains (patents).

> They try to save their face with WP7.8

That WP 7.8 comes was in the contract. Microsoft announced early that therr will be at least 2 major updates for WP7, 7.5 and 7.8.

> It happens in desktop world (too).

No, it does not. Every Windows version is compatible to the old one. Win95 to DOS and Win31 ... Windows 8 to Windows 7.
Microsoft is the prime example of backwards-compatibility in our industrie. No other ever did manage to do that so long.

> Even with iOS

No. All iphojes receive at least 2 years long support, get the newest iOS. Same with OSX.

doto

@AtTheBottomOfTheHilton you say Nokia will go under, but... I am on the stock market for 20 years, and i know that if tabloid wrote in May: NOKIA goes bankrupt, and the same told me my aunt, the future will be totally different...
NOKIA is the most widely used mobile platform in the world, their asset are too cheap to let everybody stay calm.

peter

@tomi,

finland don't care about Nokia's future, but Europe?? I think it's a bad sign for our economy. All smartphones will be supplied by U.S/Asia: Apple, Samsung, HTC, Google etc.
I hope Europe will do something because we'll be foreign's slaves. Sagem/Alcatel/Ericsson/Philips has failed into their strategy. We have to do something (or try) to be independant from Apple, Samsung, HTC, Google etc.

What do you think?

AI

In Q2 2012 Nokia WP7 phone has got 0.3% market share in US:
http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/?p=32494

Is it good or bad?

Both Samsung and HTC got 0.5% market share with their WP7 phones.

aikoN

It feels more and more like the right way for Nokia was to push MeeGo for top handsets, polishing it more, adding even more eye-candy. Supporting Symbian for a while (I mean just supporting or downgrading it for low-end handsets)

Carl

I must say I have difficulties to call friends and business partners in Finland, because everyone seems to be using this Lumia junk.

Mad

I'm already looking forward to watch the horror next Thursday, might even throw Nokia funeral party.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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