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July 23, 2012



Question to Tomi: When did Samsung pass Nokia in dumbphones?

Samsung delivered 95 million phones in Q2 2012, of which ~50 million was smartphones. So they delivered less than 50 million dumbphones.

Nokia delivered over 70 million dumbphones in Q2.

So Nokia is still the clear leader in dumbphones


It is very hard to spot the winning strategy behind the moves Nokia has made in the last 18 months. Also, when sensing Nokia's best interest, and not Microsoft's, it is hard to have a positive gut feeling about the same strategic decisions.

Not seeing any reasonable plan, one opts for conspiracy theories:-) Which company collects where Nokia drops? Samsung. Which country now controls near 100% of future-proof mobile OSes? USA. Where and when did the competition meet to devise their Elop weapon of mass destruction?


I don't get it. If Nokia's previous strategy with carriers was so bad, what choice do they have but to change it? Nokia can't rely on carriers who aren't going to push WP, who instead will only wait to see if it takes off first. By restricting carriers, the other carriers can't "wait and see". A carrier has to commit up front to push WP8. Elop is hoping that at least one of them will bet on WP8 enough to want exclusivity.

I think that one carrier agreeing to push WP8 even if no one buys it, is better for Nokia than WP8 available on all carriers, with no one pushing it, and no one buying it.

They gotta push on that turd till it makes a splash.


Nokia's not a mass market company. Microsoft shut that down. They only killed a competitor, they never took over its abilities. They killed it.

Using Nokia to make WPs was never intended at full Nokia strength. Yes, they hoped that killing Nokia's user base would free up some market space for WP (even for some reason thinking that Nokia users would remain loyal to the dead company's name and migrate to WP). But no, MS didn't intend to use Nokia as a company to build WP... instead they build WP in China and Argentina while closing Nokia's factories.

So it doesn't matter what the old Nokia did, or how big it was. That is dead now. WP with Nokia is once again "a startup", trying yet again to make an entry into the market. MS wanted to kill Nokia's market share more than it really expected to migrate them to WP.


I wrote way back in Jan 2011 about Palm's refusal to sell their phones in other markets/carriers:

It didn't work for Palm nor will it work for Nokia.


He is just being honest the way he sees it. Nokia, has made so many mistakes being at least five years ahead of your rivals in terms of technology and just like msft with the CE, they threw their lead away. People get fired for less nowadays, getting rid of Symbian and Meego was their undoing at Nokia, Elop, should not take all the blame just like at HP, the board of directors are just on a different Planet, lacking what technologies are required and needed in smartphones. The Nokia 808, showed what Nokia can do, plus other prototype phones from them but once again they just keep missing the Boat.

I am sure there are quite a few smart people at Nokia but will not be given the voice to turn the company around. WP7 Lumia's are still for sale when wp8 will arrive a in few months, not allowing current Mobile 6 and wp7 customers to be able to upgrade their OS via ROM, is even more unforgivable, some of these people signed two yr contracts. Clearly Elop, and his gang have not been reading Peter Drucker's books or maybe they have and just ignored the point of the business, which is to find a customer!


Unfortunately, I am afraid there is only one thing left to do about Nokia.
Cry for what was one of the greatest most admired company in the world.


Isn't this just a way of putting a happy face on Nokia having trouble getting distribution deals?



> Nokia is still the clear leader in dumbphones

Look into the future a bit when Android goes future down to the low-end segment when more powerful hardware like the PI becomes cheaper and more Android JB like optimizations are done.
S40 cannot compete forever like it is now. It needs investment, a refresh, an update.
That was the goal of Meltimi which was short before release. There was/is plenty time left to defend in the low-cost dumbphone segment. Not any longer. Elop killed it off.
Now its just a matter of time till Android but also Bada (Samsung DOES invest into Bade, Tizen may become Bada 3.0 or, as it looks, the plan is to bring both closer together) take over that segment too.
I think it will go fast. Much faster now that Elop works proactive on demaging carrier-relationships, on moving Nokia out of markets, on shutting down sales and R&D, on bleeding cash.
When Elop wrote his burning memo he explicit included the low-end segment. Its all on its way anf Nokia is losing huge, also in that segment.


> If Nokia's previous strategy with carriers was so bad, what choice do they have but to change it?

They could do the same they did in China what actually resulted in grow for Nokia!
Offer alternates to WP based Lumia using the same hardware. That also would allow them to get the hardware inventory (those 200 mio $) sold rather then throwing it into the trash.
Just look. Android does alrwady work very good on the N9! No long development needed, they could bring it to market tomorrow. Also they have Symbian running on Lumia hardware made long ago for China Mobile.
All the would need to do is to sell! But no, Elop prefers to lose money before he does offer any alyernate to WP7 Lumia to the market.

> I think that one carrier agreeing to push WP8 even if no one buys it, is better for Nokia than WP8 available on all carriers, with no one pushing it, and no one buying it

The situation does not change. I doubt any larget carrier would be fine to only offer Lumia and no other WP8 device (like from Samsung and HTC) and no iphone and no Android devices.
So either they find a super small carrier or will have the dame competition on the one carrier they had before on all carriers.
No, it does not make any sense. Not even from a 180 degree angle. Its just stupid.

> They gotta push on that turd till it makes a splash.

Till it makes a splash and the Nokia ship is sunk?
They need to sell lot devices to have market share. They need to make profit with that else they are out of cash.
I think neither of both is possible with that sucide-strategy.



Who cares if Samsung ever passes Nokia in dumbphones? I doubt they will (while Nokia is alive, at least). I'm sure they're not trying to. They're trying to push smartphones, not dumbphones, after all. The real point is that Samsung has permanently passed Nokia in *phones*. Samsung's only plausible challengers om that front are the Shenzen gang and they have a decent ways to go (especially at the high-end).

Dick Maelstrom

A picture paints a thousand words:


Thank you Dick, I love Elop's face on this one


I would write to the Government and President of Findland

Maybe they can creat some noise in Finnish mass media at least?

Mr. T

> Elop wants Nokia's market share to shrink? He wants Nokia's share price to fall further?

YES - I believe this man has only one true vision - that is to prepare Nokia for manufacturing Microsoft products only so that Microsoft can buy the company for a very low price. And what will Elop gain from this? Well, he will be a true company (=Microsoft) man and eventually become the CEO of Microsoft when Ballmer retires.

Sounds crazy, more like a bad conspiracy theory by Microsoft, but it is the only imaginable reason for what Elop has done.


Elop is Nokia's Gorbachev


Significantly, Apple "missed" today, as well, and they don't have any new carrier launches next quarter, so we'll likely see a further deterioration in Apple's smartphone share until October. Likely Samsung's Galaxy SIII will benefit, but it does open the window (if only a crack) for Nokia to announce new products. Let's see if they take advantage of it.

Robert Atkins

Symbian, gone! Meego, gone! Now Meltemi, gone!
M$ has accomplished its goals of eliminating all competing Nokia OS's.

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