My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« Nokia Q2 Results: Bad bad and will be even more bad | Main | If Apple is running away from this strategy, and Samsung growing by opposite strategy, why is Elop trying 'exclusive' carrier strategy for Nokia and Microsoft. He must be mad! »

July 20, 2012

Comments

Spawn

@Baron95

> He has not yet sold NSN.

You can be sure he tried but so far the offers are not good enough. As more time passes and as more Nokia is under pressure to sell themselfs off to survive as more bad will be offers be.

> He has not yet fired the 10s of thousands

He has. 20000 employees. But execution takes time.
He also closed factories, sold off assets including patents and so on.
He is trying to make everything into cash he can in order to stretch the time left till Nokia cannot sell its bills any longer.

> He has not yet completed the switch ... because he has to wait for Windows 8.

And once its clear WP8 failed too for Nokia he has not.comppeted the strategy and waits for WP9. All right.
The plan was to make WP7 the theird ecosystem. WP8 was not even on the horizont.
Also what makes you believe that things will better for Nokia now that they cash problems, have no gigant market share any longer, have a damaged brand, have a fraction of the R&D forces left, have no competative hardware advantage any longer, gave up navteq to competitors for free, have a damaged carrier relationship, gave up lots of there markets and are not any longer preferred partner of Microsoft (that is Microsoft itself now with the Surface strategy)?

> When you see the signs ... then you buy the stock.

At $1? Yes, there is money to make when Nokia is split, patents and other parts are sold in pieces and uninteresting parts are finished. No question.
The Nokia slaughtering will be profitable for some. No question.

@So Vatar

> Nokia's strategy before Elop was to phase out Symbian.

But keep customers while transfering to a new platform. Ideally even increase the number of customers.

> Nokia management was incapable of executing this strategy.

Yes, because Nokia's management (Elop and friends) preferred to put all eggs into the WP7 shredder.
Remember the N9 which was the showcase that the strategy was propper executed? Its just that the strategy changed when Elop and his friends took over.
Remember that the N9 hit market before WP7 Lumia?
Remember that NOW, years later, Nokia still has nothing to offer and still waits but this time for WP8?

> Nokia in its wisdom exchanged a promising strategy with a flopping one, while execution is as awful as it has been for years.

What execution? They are waiting for Microsoft since they jumped onto it. Nothing changed. How to proper execute waiting while not being able to do anything? You can't.

> Contrast that with what a capable management could have done

The whole transformation process was ready. MeeGo was ready to be shipped.
All they would have to do is to press "start". Actually what the did was to press "cancel" and then undo and aborted all the strategy, investment and path Nokia before Elop did heavily invest into to get ready. All those years, all those money, all those resources moved to the trash.
They could have just applied the strategy AND still give WP7 a try. Lumia never was in competition to MeeGo cause it never provided an upgrade-path, formed an ecosystem with Symbian, was under Nokia's control.

Spawn

@KM

> Symbian was dead at that point

It was not. In 2010 Symbian was still the market leader, the mobile OS #1. Even if it lost tiny percentages to competitors they whwre years left to make good money with it and complete the transition strategy.

It reminds me of the richest man ob earth (number #1) who once went into a casino. He has billions on his bank accounts but while looking at the tablets thinks "damn, I lost 5 million last 5 years. I need to do something to stop my downfall!". He sets wverythin he has, all the billions, on red. Black comes. All lost. Friends look at him and shake there heads. But he goes on. He borrows some more millions from friends saying, now I know it will wirk next time! It was the conditions but next time it will be red, trust me! He puts everything on red again (analogy WP8) but we know how that will end, don't we?

> MeeGo ... difficult path ahead

The difference is in the ecosystem, the apps, the developers and partners.
MeeGo would combined its own ecoayatem with the Symbian ecosystem using Qt. All the apps Symbiab had could be ported easily to run on MeeGo and the other way around.
Do not forget that Symbian was and number #1 ecosystem that time for many years. Both platforms could profit from each other. Its the perfect transition-path. More so using that strategy you could still come up with another platform later and integrate that into yout ecosystem too.
As an example there is Qt for Android, Qt for Blackberry, Qt for iphone, there qas even once work going on at Qt for S40.
In contrast what they did was to abort all that. To kill all they had and pick something that was unproven, not under thete control and incompatible with anything there had including there very own mobile OS #1.

Tomi T Ahonen

To all in the thread..

I did a couple of additions to the blog. In the body of the main article, no major changes, but I added 3 pictures to explain the story better. All three have been seen before, but 2 of the 3 needed updates now after Q2 data, so that is why I needed a bit of time.

And at the end, note I posted an 'update' covering 3 stories. The news that Nokia now is feuding with its loyal Symbian developer community, that Elop has announced even more bizarre strategy to ensure Nokia collapse continues, and that the first Android-powered Nokia smartphone is already on the market - there is an Android port to the N9 (by third party programmers, obviously).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

PlatformWasSetOnFire

In addition to AT&T employees, don't forget all those free and/or discounted handsets given to most of Microsoft and Nokia employees (a few more shipments when they buy them for their families) ... these numbers of "shipped" phones won't be there in coming quarters. I know droves of people in Nokia who flash their brand new Lumias ... every employee in Nokia is eligible for 1 and at times 2 free phones under various internal programs/benefits

KrisTross

I moved from latest Belle Symbian to MeeGo based N9 I just don't want to go back.
I feel that I actually want to blame Symbian for the current situation. Instead of fixing Symbian and holding it alive, the only way to survive for Nokia was to go MeeGo.
MeeGo had a future.
Symbian was better to step down where S40 is today.
Today I have more trust in Jolla Mobile.

CEO

Selling NSN will be very unwise move. It is the only thing that keeps Nokia still afloat. Losing NSN seals the fate of Nokia very quickly.

NSN is the vital connection to the infrastructure of mobile communications, without it Nokia is just a polycarbonate cover maker.

I guess many don't understand the synergies of having an infrastructure maker connected to the handset maker. There are many. It is the ecosystem, it brings in leverage.

Revenues from NSN are healthy. Money from Nokia handset sales are now sick, infected money. Money from hands that have leprosy. Money from hands that have only couple of fingers left.

Sander van der Wal

@Spawn

Symbian was dead the moment Nokia bought Qt an announced it would be put on top of Symbian an Maemo.

A strategy that could have worked very welll, leveraging Noka's number one position if and only if Nokia was smart enough to execute that strategy properly and quickly.

But they were not smart enough, they fiddled while their platforms were catching fire, it took them way to long to properly integrate Qt in their entiere business and in the meantime developers discovered that iPhone made them ten times as much money. Think 2009, 2010.

When iPhone became available in greater numbers in 2010 it was over for them in Europe.

zlutor

@Baron95: "Mobile handsets are now mobile computers, and to succeed as a mobile computer the skills and competencies are completely different. There are NO SYNERGIES whatsoever in building a mobile network and creating a great UI, great app developers support, a great integrated browser, a great music/video/book/entertainment ecosystem. None"

I tend to disagree - on having no synergies.

Yes, mobile handsets are mobile computers. Or, mobile content consumers/producers, I would say. People/applications want bandwidth and they want to be on-line, reachable instantly 'all-the-time'.

Do you have any idea what does it demand from the mobile networks? Do you see no synergies here? Smartphones generate HUGE demands to the networks - both on control and user plane - and device makers have to cooperate with network vendors to coop with these issues...

Operators tends to support true e2e solution (true end-to-end, from people to people) if they get real benefit out of it...

Of course, if a device is so 'killer' that operators must sell it to their consumers, it might not count. But if you think about mass-market where there is still huge amount of money, this little advantage may make the difference between failure or success. For some devices and for the telco equipment vendor as well...

Dan

"So what did Elop tell us about this catastrophy. He said that Nokia will continue with the Lumia strategy. He said that even as Windows Phone 8 comes, Elop will be not just supporting - but selling these current Osborned-and-instantly-obsolete four Lumia smartphones! Wot?"

Just a quick note, he's got to carry on. There are warehouses full of Lumias which need selling. He can't put WP8 on them as it won't support WP7's hardware so he's got to carry on running into the ground with WP7.

He might be able to turn them into model Ts like China Mobile has but that would costly and admitting failure, instead he's got to carry on regardless until the board kick him out by which time it'll probably be too late for Nokia as a company.

Dan

@JK: I don't know if Finland have legal means to hold Elop or the board accountable but the government has refused to bail Nokia out.

Sid

@Tomi , I am really wondering if India is under APAC? because its very fast growing market and may be 2nd biggest after China. But you numbers seem to be too low for APAC.
I think you need to check those again.

Fabio Correa

Very sad news, transcription below:

http://lists.qt-project.org/pipermail/development/2012-August/005468.html

lorn.potter at nokia.com lorn.potter at nokia.com
Subject: [Development] state of Qt's Australia office
Wed Aug 1 05:10:43 CEST 2012

Hi all,

We have received word that the Brisbane Australia office, consisting of the teams working on Qt3D, QtDeclarative, QtMultimedia, QtSensors, and QtSystems modules, as well as the CI/QA team for Qt, [and QtLocation], will be shut down. Our last day is August 31.

The individual developers still retain their status within the Qt Project. Whether they choose to remain working on Qt is up to them. Personally, I will continue is possible because I still have plans/research I want to do.

Except for the CI hardware. which still has employment in the EU.

so… anyone hiring?

google

What is surprising and worrying is that the Finnish Govt/parliament does not take an interest on this case. It does not hold even one enquiry to find out what went wrong in their largest and flagship company. Many Finnish people loosing their jobs not to mention pension schemes and local governments funds going to waste. There are many questions that Finnish people would like answers to for example why close manufacturing in Finland but move it to Argentina. If mistakes were made by Elops predecessors let him tell the parliamentary enquiry.

china manufacturing

This is why the Finnish Givernment and Parliament need to investigate Nokia board to get to the bottom of what has happened. Finnish people deserve to know why their community has been hit thus, loss of employment, pensions and local authorities put at risk.

Recaptcha OCR

I simply could not depart your web site before suggesting tjat I actually loved the standard info an indkvidual supply in your visitors? Is going to be back ofen to heck up on neew posts

The comments to this entry are closed.

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati