What Happens Now to Nokia Lumia and Windows Phone, After Microsoft Throws Nokia Under the Bus? (Updated)

Last two weeks we've had a lot of disasterous news for Nokia. I reported on 'what we now know' after the Nokia latest profit warning (and Nokia share price fell a Nokia-record 18% in one day). As I was preparing to do an update of the forecast for Nokia's smartphone performance based on all the bad news we heard from that Nokia announcement, came news of the Microsoft tablet - more bad news - and then the second bombshell relating to Nokia: that none of the current Lumia smartphones running Windows Phone will be able to be upgraded to Windows 8. Nokia fell another 11% yesteday on the news.

What does all that mean now? First. That this current April-June Quarter, Q3, is as Nokia already warned us, going to be bad news in Nokia smartphones, both Lumia and Symbian based. What was the N9 project with MeeGo is being closed down, some countries (such as in Finland and Sweden) have already stopped selling the N9 even though it is highly regarded and popular and profitable. The Symbian based award-winning 808 PureView is for some bizarre reason not sold everywhere now, that Nokia is desperate for premium Nokia smarpthone sales and profits - like not in traditionally Nokia strong smartphone market of Australia. When I made my forecast of Nokia market shares, revenues and profits for this year 2012, I did expect the CEO would engage in smart, sensible behavior and try to sell as widely as possible. Now we learn, from the profit warning two weeks ago, that Elop's 'solution' is to increase sales by decreasing sales efforts (!!!). That he will actually shrink his sales efforts. That Nokia will not continue its global sales but rather now focus only on selected key markets. This is exactly how Siemens died in mobile phones. And how Motorola died. And how Palm died. Exactly the same pattern. When your sales stumbles, you start to cut your sales effort. I am reminded of the quote by Paul Harvey: "Marketing executives who stop advertising to save money are like people who stop the clock to save time."

So we knew Q1 was bad. We expected Q2 to be worse. We heard now, that Q2 is even worse than we thought. That was from Nokia profit warning announcement. Then we get the bombshell - about Windows 8. Now we find that the total Lumia line has been Osborned. Not by Elop this time, this time that was done by Ballmer.

THE WINDOWS ASSASSIN

This time it was not Nokia CEO who 'Osborned' the Nokia smartphone line as Nokia new CEO Stephen Elop did with the Elop Effect last year. No. This is something Steve Ballmer specializes in, the serial Osborning of Windows based smartphones. He did it with Windows Mobile by announcing no upgrade path to Windows Phone. At its peak, just before the iPhone, Microsoft had a ton of Windows Mobile smartphone manufacturing partners back then - including 8 of the Top 10 biggest smartphone makers Samsung, LG, SonyEricsson, Motorola, HTC, Palm, Dell and Fujitsu. Microsoft had 12% global market share in smartphones, but then when Ballmer decided to cut the migration path, the partners started to depart and the share dimish. By the time Windows Phone launched in 2010, Windows Mobile share was down to 3%. And even after Nokia was brought in, today the combined market share of Windows Mobile and Windows Phone is down to 2% globally. And now Ballmer says there won't be a migration path for Windows 8 either. Your existing WP7 based smarpthone is an expensive paperweight: you have to buy a new smartphone to enjoy Windows 8 on it - the total Microsoft handset partners team have shrunk to four: Nokia, HTC, Samsung and Huawei. Three of them - Samsung, HTC and Huawei do the majority of their smartphones on Android. And Samsung has not just one, but two of its own smartphone OS platforms as well - bada already in production and Tizen coming out later this year (also with four handset manufacturers already confirmed).

So that pipe-dream of the 'third ecosystem' is fully busted now. Microsoft's smartphone 'play' that once was the second largest OS in the world, is now ranked 6th biggest and sells only 2% of all new smartphones (with share that is still falling). That was before the current line of all Windows Phone based smartphones by all makers, became instantly obsolete this past week. If I was the CEO of any of those companies, I would have learned my lesson by now, and never put most of my eggs in to the Microsoft basket. In fact, like Samsung, if I was a Microsoft partner, I would be frantically building my own OS to replace Microsoft. And if I was Nokia with not one, not two, but three smartphone OS platforms - Symbian, MeeGo and nearly-completed Meltemi - I would certainly keep those well in production to be sure I would not be damaged by the whims of the Ballmer.

BUT WIN 8 IS GREAT

So you liked the Microsoft PR show about Windows 8? You think its a great OS? That it will make great phones and tablets and be an ecosystem with great features and apps etc. This is a totally utterly completely comprehensively irrelevant point. In the PC market, in the videogaming market, in the music player market, etc, it matters how good or bad your device is. It does NOT matter in mobile phones (???). Look at this picture. Which of these lines is Nokia running the 'obsolete' Symbian?



Source: TomiAhonen Consulting based on Company Data
This image may be freely shared 

No. The one that is Nokia - with the 'obsolete' Symbian - is the top line (in blue). Nokia was yes, selling more than the iPhone and all Samsung smartphones combined. Nokia was not declining - when everyone including me the perennial Nokia optimist - admitted that iPhones and Samsung Galaxies were better smartphones than the Symbian based Nokias. The reason Nokia was able to do this, was obviously not that it made 'the best smartphone' but something else - the carrier relationships.

Why did Palm die? It had the second best-rated smartphone this side of the iPhone? It has a superb phone! Palm died because it didn't have the right carrier relationships. Why did Microsoft's Kin phones die in only 6 weeks - a world record - because the originally committed carriers suddenly refused to offer it. In the mobile handset market, it is the carriers who decide. Not who has the biggest 'ecosystem' or who has the most apps or the best phone or the best user interface. If the best phone wins, Apple would not have suddenly doubled USA sales when Verizon came onboard. In mobile, the deciding factor is carrier relations, nothing else. Look at that picture again. Nokia lead over Apple's iPhone had grown - not shrunk - in the two year period. Does that make any sense? I know it doesn't, to those who live in the USA and see only the US market where Nokia was tiny. But Nokia had 77% market share in China - the world's biggest smartphone market where Apple had a pittance and Windows doesn't register on the charts. Nokia (with Symbian) was easily the biggest smartphone maker of India, Africa, Latin America etc. 

(The dotted line is when Elop was hired to join Nokia and here is the Part 2 of that slide to show what I originally used it for, to explain the madness of the Elop Microsoft strategy:)


Source: TomiAhonen Consulting based on Company Data
This image may be freely shared 

FIRST OF THREE SALES BOYCOTTS

I have reported on this blog that the Elop Effect resulted in the 'Osborning' of Nokia smartphones and also that the Burning Platforms memo destroyed resale confidence in the Nokia handset portfolio. The sales collapsed (as we can see from the above picture, strong sustained growth reverses immediately into steep decline, right after the Elop Effect). I said the stores will reject selling Nokia smartphones. That was strongly objected to by some on this blog. Since then Nokia has repeatedly complained that its the retail channel that is the problem. Elop said so at the Shareholders Meeting. He again said so now with the latest profit warning when he said that the Lumia line is a good phone but retail stores do not support the phone sales. I call this a sales boycott. I explained why it happens. The point is now moot, as it has been confirmed by Nokia's own CEO. Yes. there is a retail sales problem, worldwide, that sales retail is reluctant to sell Nokia handsets. That is what I call the Boycott number 1. It started first, in February of 2011, at the Elop Effect. Even Elop himself admits openly, to the Nokia shareholders meeting, that yes, separately he admits his Burning Platforms memo did hurt Nokia smartphone sales. And look at that graph, you see how badly it has caused damage to mostly Symbian based Nokia sales since February of last year.

One. This sales retail problem is real, it was caused by Elop, he admits he caused it. And two, the problem is systematic. Therefore three, it cannot be fixed by cosmetic things like a new phone handset or an update to the software or some nice apps in the app store or cutting prices. The problem is systematic. It is against Nokia. Note, it does not hit other Windows based manufacturers, but it obviously hits hard Nokia's Symbian based smartphone sales and even Nokia's featurephones.

SECOND BOYCOTT CAUSED BY SKYPE

Then there is the second boycott. I reported on this blog that the carriers have revolted against Microsoft after it bought Skype one year ago, and carriers put all Windows based smartphones into sales boycott. That has since been independently verified by various US based news outlets from California to Boston to New York City. We got final confirmation from Nokia CEO Stephen Elop who admitted to the Nokia Shareholders Meeting that yes, carriers don't like Skype 'of course' and that some carriers have taken the step to even refuse to sell any Windows Phone based smarthpones, explicitly because Microsoft owns Skype. Not my words, Elop's. This point is beyond any argument - Nokia's CEO tells openly that yes, there are carriers reluctant to sell Windows Phone handsets because of Microsoft owning Skype (and he even explains to Nokia shareholders the revenue loss logic behind that reasoning). This is so well known, Elop uses the words 'of course'. Read the full Elop quote and see the video.

And this was not just hitting Nokia Lumia smartphone sales, it was hitting all brands of smartphones running Windows. Elop explained further, that for more than a year, Microsoft had tried to negotiate with the carriers to get some resolution about the Skype issue - with kind threats like 'Skype will come in any case' (not really helpful) and that after a year of such 'persuasion' there were exactly zero carriers who had taken Microsoft's offer.

Understand, this is NOT about which smartphone has or doesn't have Skype on it (we've had Skype on many smartphones for years) and the current Lumia line doesn't come with Skype on it. This is about Microsoft now owning the hated Skype and being able to bankroll the biggest threat to the existence of mobile operators/carriers. I have explained why carriers hate Skype - and why Microsoft ownership of Skype is the issue, not that some smartphone has it or not. That is no longer the issue because we have heard from the horse's mouth: Elop admits this is the cause of some carriers/operators even refusing to sell any Windows based phones.

So this Second Boycott is not about Nokia, it is explicitly aimed at Microsoft but any manufacturer who makes Windows phones will be hurt by it, including Nokia obviously. Elop openly admits this problem to Nokia shareholders. The same was echoed by Dell when they said they are quitting Windows and also by HTC why they were shifting from Windows Phone to Android, etc. LG and SonyEricsson had echoed similar themes why they were shifting away from Windows - who wants to make phones that the stores refuse to sell? They happily sell Android. And again, this is not what I am 'claiming' - Nokia CEO confessed to the Nokia Shareholder Meeting that yes, its because of Skype that Windows Phone smarthpone sales are suffering.

Because of the Anti-Microsoft boycott, the Windows Phone partnership has seen LG, SonyEricsson and Dell quit Windows Phone totally (in favor of Android) and HTC and Samsung reduce their Windows offering in favor of more Android. Before the Anti-Microsoft boycott, Microsoft's combined Windows market share of Windows Mobile and Windows Phone was 3%. That collapsed to under 1% by the time Nokia's first Lumia phones launched. And again, this is not my conjecture, this was verified by Nokia CEO talking to the Nokia shareholders, yes, the carriers hate Skype and because of Microsoft now owning Skype, are reluctant to sell Windows based smartphones. This was before Skype was integrated into the Windows smarpthones.

The anti-Microsoft boycott, what I call now boycott number 2, is real. It has been confirmed by Nokia and its been listed as a cause why some Windows partners have quit selling Windows based smarpthones and switched over to Android. This is a systematic problem of Windows and Microsoft. It cannot be fixed with a new operating system or some pretty new tiles on new phones. This problem is real today, it will only get worse with Windows 8, when Skype is fully integrated to the PC, tablets (and smartphones). I am not saying there will be no sales of Windows 8 based smartphones - but that because there is already a crippling sales boycott that after one year of Microsoft 'negotations' (aka threats and bullying) has not been ended, this problem will be far worse in Windows 8.

THIRD BOYCOTT NOW DUE TO NO UPGRADE

So now we get the Windows 8 news. No upgrade for any current Windows Phone based smartphones by any manufacturer, to Windows 8. The total Nokia Lumia line is instantly Osborned, not by Elop, but this time, by Ballmer. Anyone who bought a Lumia will seem like a total fool to any knowledgable friends. The carriers who sold Lumia (and Samsung, HTC etc Windows Phone handsets) will be blamed for selling an obsolete product - there will be record returns and tons of complaints, especially from all who are now on two year contracts. Those customers will demand to be released from those contracts. 

This means that the current stock of all four Lumia phones is instantly undesirable. What we thought that Nokia profitability and average prices were falling, will be far worse. Now these obsolete phones have to be sold for pennies on the dollar.


UPDATE 27 June - wow that didn't take long. One of my Twitter followers, Jose Galvez @xoj_21 sent me update from Amazon that the Lumia 900 which originally had Amazon list price of $499.99 US dollars - is now sold.. wait for it.. for one cent !! For one penny !! I was wrong! Lumia didn't crash so badly it would sell for pennies on the dollar. It sells for one fifth of one penny on the dollar. From 500 dollars to one penny. This is murder on Lumia and the Nokia reputation. (Thanks Jose for finding the link)


The carriers will demand to return their existing stock and refuse to accept delivery of placed orders. The mere transport costs of handling the returns will add massively to Nokia's costs now in late Q2 and into Q3. This means yes, further big losses beyond the profit warning.

Any carrier/operator or handset retailer who has Nokia Lumia in stock, will try to return it to Nokia. Then if not, they will sell it at huge discounts. That means, that in all markets where Lumia is sold, the prices collapse. That hurts all Nokia brand sales, including Symbian and MeeGo based smartphones and including featurephones. Who is willing to pay 100 dollars for a mid-priced Nokia branded featurephone/cameraphone if there is a brand new Nokia Lumia for 25 dollars in the basket in the same store, on fire sale. All Nokia prices are now collapsing, in all markets where Lumia had launched - bearing in mind, a collapsing Lumia price in your competitor store, will hurt your sales even if you do not offer Lumia yourself.

Any carrier or operator or retailer who had signed up to Lumia but hasn't yet started its sales, will immediately stop and refuse delivery. The biggest carriers/operators will try to muscle all kinds of concessions and refunds from Nokia further damaging Nokia's profitability.

Am I imagining things? No. This is the immediate response from T-Mobile (as per TamsPPC): Because there is no upgrade to Windows 8, while T-Mobile had originally committed to sell the Lumia 900 in Germany and did advertise it already, it now will not do so. No Lumia 900 to be sold by T-Mo in Germany. Note, T-Mobile is Germany's biggest operator/carrier and Germany is the headquarters for the T-Mobile group, one of the world's 20 largest mobile carrier/operator groups for example the parent of USA's T-Mobile. If this is what T-Mo does and says so in public, you can bet your bottom dollar it ain't the only one.

WHEN YOU HAVE 3 ALTERNATIVES

So we see Stephen Elop and his 'management style'. What did Motorola or LG do when Windows Mobile sales tanked? What did HTC and Samsung do when Windows Phone did not sell well. What did Dell and Sony do when they noticed Windows Phone has a carrier boycott? All of those smartphone makers had an alternative, in every case at least Android. All of them - of course - shifted away from the platform that was having problems in retail, and shifted to the platform(s) that didn't have a problem.

And Elop has not one, not two, but three smartphone options. He can right now sell tons of smartphones on Symbian - like China Mobile the world's largest mobile operator/carrier (that is like 7 times AT&T haha, did you get that - SEVEN times AT&T). They said no to Lumia, they have the equivalent to the Lumia 800, as the Nokia 801T, which runs on Symbian - and has a 4 inch touch screen, 8 mp camera, WiFi, 3G, NFC (and TV tuner). If your customers don't want the 800 Lumia, give them the 801T. Or the 808 PureView etc, running Symbian.

And not just that, what of MeeGo? Is not obsolete and Osborned by Microsoft. The smart CEO would immediately react to the Microsoft announcement by recommitting to MeeGo - the most loved OS ever made by Nokia - the N9 running MeeGo is the only smartphone ever made by Nokia that has consistently been rated as good as - or get this - better than the iPhone. The N9 won the D&AD Award for Design beating not just the Lumias but beating the iPad 2. Who does that? Wins a design award ahead of Apple? What moron CEO doesn't celebrate this award and flood the world market with this superb device?

And its sister smarpthone, the N950, also running MeeGo. Not Osborned either. Why not launch the N950 now, while there is still interest in the MeeGo OS, and as a gimmick, promise to bring Android compatibility to MeeGo (they are both running the same Linux base) so suddenly most Android apps will be compatible with these two MeeGo devices? If the Nokia CEO was really concerned about Nokia's best interests, that is what he'd do now, when Microsoft pulls the rug under the Windows Phone platform.

Any sensible CEO over at Sony or LG or Samsung or HTC or Dell would have no qualms about doing that. In fact they have all done that. Why is Elop afraid? Because he is beholden to Microsoft, he was never honestly pursuing Nokia's best interest after all.

And that third option for Nokia is Meltemi. Elop just announced that he is firing the Meltemi staff. He hasn't done it yet, it was only announced. Since this Microsoft bombshell now destroys pretty much all of Nokia's plans to expand Lumia to low-cost smartphone markets and poisons those carrier relationships - there is sitll time to reverse the decision to fire the Meltemi staff - the Meltemi OS is nearly finished! Why not finish it now, rush those low-cost smartphones to the market (use the Lumia 610 model for example but issue it with the new Meltemi software) and Nokia would have a low-cost OS option where Windows 8 is not fit for it. There is still time. Any sensible CEO would do that, once being burned by Microsoft.

At this stage, if the retail channel refuses to sell the smartphones running Windows, then its time to say thanks and switch. For RIM it would be a long and costly shift away from the Blackberry OS, because there is nothing else. If they wanted to switch, say to Android, it would take 18 months. But at Nokia they have two alternate OS platforms currently in production! Why not sell those phones now, everywhere? And as Windows is clearly a pointless platform, end that development path. Who cares what the costs of breaking that deal is, with Microsoft. Clearly Microsoft doesn't care one bit about its 'strategic partner' Nokia's interests. Let them sue you, pay back the 750 million dollars of marketing support and end the dead end of the Windows path. As I wrote previously, the Windows path is a Certain Road to Death. That was before this deliberate Osborning of the Lumia line by Microsoft.

PS - if T-Mobile in Germany refuses to sell the Lumia 900 - give them the N9 !!! The N9 was never sold in Germany but so loved by the German press, Der Stern wrote only a couple of months ago, the N9 is so good, Germans should travel to other countries to buy it !!! The N9 looks like the Lumia 900 - because the Lumia 900 is based on the N9. The N9 is a better phone - beats it in side-by-side tests. The N9 doesn't have the 101 problems that Windows Phone has. The N9 is much more like a Nokia phone, so current Nokia owners will find it familiar where Lumia often seems odd to Nokia users. And the N9 has features the Lumia 900 doesn't, like NFC. Hey, Elop - if you don't now offer T-Mobile the N9 - you ARE a criminal and should be fired, sued, investigated, barred from corporate office, and tarred and feathered. Oh, PSPS, also release the N950 now everywhere !!!!

SO WHAT HAPPENS

I was the most accurate forecaster of how badly the Elop Effect will damage Nokia sales last year. I hit the end-of-year market share and again this Q1 market share within one percentage point. Since then, I also gave my forecast for now, this year 2012 Nokia market shares by Quarter. That has now again been destroyed, so yes, I will have to revise (and thus downgrade) my forecasts for this year 2012. But yes, I predicted Nokia would end in Q4 of 2012 with 3% market share in smartphones (it was 33% when Elop took over less than two years ago). Now that number will need to be downgraded. I will return with those numbers as soon as I have them.

If you thought you knew how bad Nokia will be this year - with globally collapsing sales, two reseller boycotts, one directly hitting Nokia due to the Elop Effect, and the other aimed at Microsoft but hitting Nokia's new Windows and Lumia strategy - and that all pushed Nokia's smarpthone unit from strong profits to big losses last year, and worsening losses now - that all got worse. Now there are THREE boycotts all hitting Nokia, one on all things Nokia (due to Burning Platforms and Elop Effect). One due to Windows due to Skype. And now the third, courtesy of Ballmer's Osborning of the Lumia line with no upgrade to Windows 8.

Nokia smartphone market share was collapsing. The speed of the Nokia collapse is now increasing. Nokia's handset unit is generating a loss. Those losses will now get bigger. Nokia's market share was in freefall in smartphones and dumbphones. That was before Elop's emergency measures of 'increasing sales by reducing sales'. That means Nokia's market shares will shrink even faster. The Nokia brand is badly burned by the past year, this latest Lumia upgrade disaster burns Nokia's brand even worse and causes even more of traditionally loyal Nokia carrier partners to bail.

The Lumia line is now dead and cannot be resurrected. Even if Nokia were to try to reuse the Lumia line with Windows 8, it will be badly damaged branding, and Nokia is better off creating a totally new brand (how expensive is that?). The most expensive handset launch of all time has been a total fiasco, mismanaged from day one by incompetent CEO Stephen Elop. The Lumia handsets will be laughing stocks and sit in discount bins in stores, polluting the Nokia brand.

I can see why there are rumors of Microsoft branded smartphones, following the Microsoft tablet. These rumors further support the idea that Microsoft itself sees the Nokia project as having failed. Which smart CEO of which carrier or operator will ever trust Stephen Elop, or Microsoft, or Steve Ballmer ever again. Why would they ever allow Windows Phone based smartphones to jeopardize their customer relationships? Especially when there is a highly desirable Android alternative, and the iPhone, and soon this Autumn coming the Tizen OS from Intel and Samsung, with already four handset suppliers committed to it. The Windows dream of smartphones is now dying and money thrown by Nokia into this bottomless pit is money wasted.

When the previous CEO Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo saw one quarter of Nokia corporation making a loss (but not the handset unit) and the Nokia share price had fallen 55% in a three year period - he was fired. At that time Nokia's handset market share was over 30%, Nokia's smartphone market share was 33% and both featurephones and smartphones units were profitable. In the first 5 months that Elop was in charge, when he was executing the older Nokia strategy with smartphones (Symbian to MeeGo transition strategy) the Nokia share price had grown 11% and the unit sales, average sales prices, revenues - and profits - in smartphones were growing! Nokia's smartphone unit was highly profitable.

Since February 2011, when Elop announced his Microsoft strategy, the Nokia share price has fallen by 80%, the market share in smartphones has fallen to 8%, and not just the handsets units, but all of Nokia is now generating a loss. Elop promises bigger losses to come. He botched the announcement of his strategy - he admits that. Microsoft torpedoed the viability of the Microsoft strategy with the Skype purchase, we cannot blame Elop for that, but it ended the dream. The first Lumia phones were each rushed and faulty, the costliest marketing launch of any handsets ever was a failure. Now we see Microsoft stabs Nokia in the back with no upgrade path to Windows 8. Its time to admit the Windows strategy was a failure and end it. And this experiment of a sweet-talking serial liar as a CEO should be ended. Elop truly needs to be fired, so Nokia could recover any semblance of credibility in its primary customer base - the carrier community. And what are Nokia shareholders waiting for? Share price fall of 55% in three years killed OPK's career. Now Elop has destroyed 80% in 16 months, less than half that time. Fire the Microsoft Muppet!

Like I tweeted when I first heard about this, when you sleep with Microsoft you soon become both Micro and Soft. We should have learned from the past disasters of 'partnering' with Microsoft in mobile, like Sendo, Motorola, Palm, Nortel, LG etc. Yes, Nokia is a dead man walking. But again, the news only keep getting worse. I did not think the news could get any worse, but again, last week, they did. 

(Update 27 June) I have just added my revised (downgraded) forecast by quarter of Nokia smartphone sales in 2012 including Lumia specific sales, plus average sales prices, revenues and Nokia profitability. See the disaster expressed in numbers here: Revised Nokia 2012 Forecast for smartphones.

Comments

[Spawn]

There is another past detail from potential interest I did not read about yet.

Samsung and Meego.

Did you know that back then Samsung was about to jump onto Meego? There where various talks going on very early in the process. Samsung was included and giving hints they would support Meego when it comes out.

What I know is that Samsung did not contribute resources early in the process. But that both, Nokia and Samsung, where in talks about coperation to spread Meego, grow the eco-system. From what I know inside of Nokia a coperation with Samsung wasnt seen as thread cause Samsung would head a different direction not building up a S40, Symbian, Meego bridge, not targeting low end with Meego at all.

Nokia, Samsung, Intel, Dell and all the others. Meego could have hit the market like a bomb.

[RyanZA]

Remember over the last few months all the Nokia execs who have fired/left?
Nokia would have gotten news of the WP8 plan around then. It's clear now that all of the top talent execs could not agree with the plan, so Elop had to fire them.

Why as Meltemi killed now, right before the WP8 release?
If Nokia has an option to go with Meltemi for the new few months until WP8 comes out, Nokia might have actually taken that option regardless of Elop. So Elop did the obvious thing and quickly killed it before the announcement, making it very difficult for anybody to continue the project in the next month and make it miss the soon to be reached launch date.

Elop has clearly and deliberately thrown any possible plan to save Nokia under the bus to try and ensure that Nokia will stick to WP even when it is clear it has failed... Luckily CEOs are never charged with crimes or Elop would be off to jail. I'm sure he has gotten a guaranteed job offer back in Microsoft in the event Nokia goes under, as well as a handsome guaranteed bonus for all this.. Maybe one of these new $7.5mil portable islands for him to retire on.

@vijay
Hahahahahahahaahahah *breath* hahaha. What a joke...

@Sander van der Wal
It's a huge problem. You need to understand the type of person purchasing a Windows Phone. They are doing it as an alternative to Apple and likely for social reasons. By making their choice a joke (Haw haw, you can't upgrade!), you are actually turning your very fanbase into your enemy. Anybody who just bought a new Lumia is going to be very negative about Windows Phone in the future. These are the same people who will be asked by others "Hey, did you see the new Windows Phone? You have a Windows Phone, should I get one?". Obvious answer there - will lead ANOTHER boycott effect for Windows Phone 8...

"In logistics, a field Nokia is said to be very good at, this is not a very hard problem to solve"

And Nokia has already FIRED all of the people who are experts at logistics. They're the same people who saw the obvious logistical failure of the Windows Phone strategy. They are all gone now. This is the result...

[Spawn]

@Tomi

Did you maybe miss the part about Microsoft opening with Surface the option to do there own phones too? In your last blog you at least announced it for this blog. I think it would be of interest to name the 2 possible options Nokia still has. Be sold or be finally killed by its partner.

[Jaakris]

Nokia reformatation, my thesis.

This is mainly written in finnish due to my friend had mild brain stroke recently and it is meant for Tomi for getting another ideas and he has permission to use it anywhere.
Tomi is also fluent in writing, I am not.
My friend has very deep knowledge about Nokia even he I do work them anymore.
He could save Nokia single handily one hand tied at his bakc as a CEO, I guess :)
Discussion is copied from finnish Kauppalehti at:
http://keskustelu.kauppalehti.fi/5/i/keskustelu/thread.jspa?threadID=210982&tstart=0

Saa kommentoida, koostaa, puhtaaksikirjoittaa, koostaa, puhua kielillä, postittaa muualle, niin ja nauraa kanssani :)
(Kirjoitettu mobiililaitteessa sairaana ollessa, antanette anteeksi aloittelijavirheet siis)

1. Se, joka kieltää teesieni todellisuuden, olkoon tuomittu ja kirottu osaketappioihin, eli turskaan.
Tämä pelko ja kauhu riittää jo yksinään (vaietaksemme muusta) valmistamaan kiirastulen vaivan, koska se on varsin lähellä epätoivon tuskaa,
mutta pelastus on lähellä sillä jokaisella osakkeenomistajalla,jos hänen katumuksensa on todellinen ja sijoitustähtäin pitkä,
sillä täydellinen anteeksianto rangaistuksesta on tuleva, osakekurssi on vielä nouseva. Ole siis uskossasi luja, Nokian omistaja !

2. Opetettakoon Nokian viestinnälle, että jos tietyt puhujat aiheuttavat kurssilaskua refleksinomaisesti, ko. puhuja vaihdetaan toisiin, paremmin viestiviin henkilöihin,
joille osakkeenomistajat ja asiakkaat eivät jo ole negatiivisesti ehdollistuneet.Antikristukset ja Antijobsit (Eflop) siis sivuun viestinnästä ja mielellään päätöksenteosta myös ;)
Yhtiökokous sinkauttakoon täydellä syyllä pannaiskun niitä vastaan, jotka Nokian vahingoksi punovat kaikenlaisia konnankoukkuja,lauttoja puheissaan polttelevat
sekä tietoja pimittelevät että isojen kivien takana Nokian aarteita myynnistä pois tahallaan piilottelevat.

3. Nokian "aarteistoa", josta toimiva uusi viestintä jakaa tietoa, ei ole kansalle kyllin tarkoin selvitetty ja tehty tunnetuksi. Onko sitä aarteistoa oikeasti muuta kuin N9?
Opetettakoon Nokian pääjohtajalle (Eflopille) että kun epävarmuus ruokkii epävarmuutta, aiheuttaa suoranaista kurssipaniikkia,
sitten täytyy laittaa muu viestintäkykyinen henkilö laitetaan selvittämään julkisuudelle heti mm.MS sopimuksen sisältö, onko Nokiaa kielletty muiden kuin Windows puhelinten
myynnistä ja miksi Nokia N9 Meego myynti keskeytettiin (tarkat myyntiluvut auki)
ja miksi uutta N9/N900/N950 Maemo puhelinta ei ole enää markkinoilla. Ja mitä Nokia tekee ja realistinen tiekartta esiin. Ei enää löysässä hirressä.
Kurssilasku on keskeytettävä ja heti. Please, no more disconnecting investors :)

4.Opetettakoon johtamisesta se että innovaatio ja motivaatio ei elä pitkään viemällä visionäärit saunan taakse ammuttavaksi ja heittämällä mahdollisuudet tunkiolle (N9, Meltemi)
ennenkuin niitä on edes oikeasti myyty näyttämällä niitä käytännössä EI-johtajien toimesta. Uutta Jobsia ei heti tule. Viekää laitteet harrastajille ja käyttäjille testattavaksi.
Uusi positiivinen nousu ja myynnin uudelleenkäynnistäminen alkaa luomalla uskoa omaan brändiin ja osaamiseen ensin entisten asiakkaiden ja omistajien parissa, nöyrästi.

5. Opetettakoon Nokialle käyttöjärjestelmistä se tärkein asia että Asiakas VALITSEE sen loppupeleissä. En minä, et sinä, ei Eflop yksin. Myynti=suosio. Tulos tai ulos.
Jos Android nyt vaan myy, Nokian täytyy yksinkertaisesti tuoda myös sellainen malli(sto) myyntiin edes kokeeksi,
vaikka ostamalla se suoraan Samsungilta vain lyömällä oman badge siihen muutamilla Nokia softalisukkeilla kuten navigaatiolla varustettuna.
Se Pitäisi Nokian hengissä ainakin siihen asti kunnes "omat" käyttöjärjestelmät ja ekosysteemit atraktiiviset taas. Asiassa ei ole enää erottautumis-stigmaa,
jos Nokia kartat saadaan kaikkiin Windows puhelimiin jo. Androida ei ole edes kokeiltu jotta nähtäisiin lopettaisiko se kurssisyöksyn !
Ennakkotilauskyseilyilla tai Alien Dalvik porttauksen avulla jos ei muuten Android kysynnän kartoitus järjestyisi alle 6 kk sisään, jos vain halutaan.
Jos kurssinousu mahdollistuu ja rahoitusasema paranee samalla, eikä se kuittaisi kevyesti Android kokeilun kustannukset, eikö totta ?
Ei kaikkia munia yhteen kortiin. Monilankainen köysi ei katkea, Windows/Android/N9/Symbian jakavat kuorman ja markkinaosuuden, kunnes "unified mobile OS" vuonna 2016 jälkeen.

6 Opetettakoon vielä ekosysteemeistä se että ne eivät ole määrättyjä homogeenisia nurmikoita vaan monimuotoisia niittyjä, joissa eri kasvit kilvoittelevat vapaasti auringosta.
Antaa hyönteisten eli sovelluskehittäjien levittää vaikutteita vapaasti eri niittyjen kesken.Se vie oman aikansa, siksi Nokia tuo kohdan 5 ratkaisun markkinoille kokeeksi.
Käyttöjärjestelmillä on oikeus omaan elämään. Lopulta on yhdentekevää millä "skinillä" multimedia tai tieto välitetään, rauta kuolee, softa jää, softasta nousee uusi pää
ja se on selain eli mitään erityisiä appseja ei välttämättä tarvita.

7. Opetettakoon selaimista se että että datamääräoptimoitu, Nokian pilvessä toimiva antivirus/antiphishing/flash/java/privacy selaimelle olisi tarvetta johon on integroitu
turvallinen antispam email, Nokia share (sugarsync), Nokia store, kotisivukehityskone, lastpass salasanahallinta, sosiaalinen media (dolphin, elgg jne.) ja hakuagentit
kuten searchpage. Kaikki tehdään stabiililta Firefox pohjalta jos ei muuten one size fits all ratkaisu ja jäädytetään se 2v, muuta ei tarvita ja käyttäjät ostavat.

8. Opetettakoon tuotteista se että ne pitää tuoda markkinoille, tuomatta jättäminen se vasta maksaa, ei saa koskaan panostuksia takaisin (Nokia N9, Meltemi)
Opetettakoon suunnittelijalle että kopioimalla muita ei menesty, vain erottautumalla ja tuomalla tuote markkinoille myyntiin asti, kaikki muu on turhaa.
Hyvällä syyllä sanomme, että Nokian aarteet ovat piilotetut isojen kivien alle.

9. Opetettakoon visionääreille se että pitää rohkeasti kokeilla, tuoda Meltemi ja kypsempi N9/N900/N950 markkinoille päivitettynä Firefoxilla uudestaan
(softavalikoima kypsempi nyt, jotkut vaan pitävät N9 kuvakkeista ja näppäimistöistä tiilien sijaan)

10. Opetettakoon Nokialle operaattoreista se että jos operaattori ei halua Skypea tai jotain ominaisuutta Nokiaansa, ei sitten hitossa laiteta Skypeä Nokiaan mukaan
ko. operaattorille toimitettavissa puhelimissa. Räätälöintiä voisi yhä tehdä Suomessa muuten.

11. Fair Nokia for fair people.
Fair work ethics phone. No suicides, reporting number of new "white" babies born at the Nokia factory this month ;)
Hintoja siis korotetaan ja sitä perustellaan valmistuksella Suomessa sekä että raudan mahdollistamat softapäivitykset annetaan ilmaiseksi 3 v ajan aikuisten oikeasti.
Fairness on myös yksityisyyden kunnioittaminen, ei vakoiluohjelmia tai takaportteja, ei mainosjäljittäjiä. Nokia antaa sinulle musiikkia 30% enempi kuin Apple, joka vetää
iTunesisa välistä. Nokia Music uudelleenlanseeraus levy-yhtiöiden kanssa kimpassa, pienempi välistäveto %.

12.Nokia supports swap. Eli eriväriset vaihtokuoret, vaihto/usblisäakut, käyttöjärjestelmän vaihto/päivitys automaatti, esim. Alien Dalvik N9/N900 johdannaisiin.
Nokia Windows puhelimet vaihdetaan uusiin W8/Apollo puhelimiin hyvityshinnalla, no questions asked tietyn ajan puitteissa, jos 7.8 köhii.

13.Nokia payments / NFC. Visa yms. ideariiheen ja yhteinen standardi, Nokian oma pankki kuluttajille esim. Deutsche Bankin kanssa.
Myös pankkitilittömät asiakkaat, mikromaksut.Seuraava miljardi eli köyhät ovat Nokian aarre, vielä jos pidetään kiirettä.

14. Opetettakoon rekrytoijille ja saneeraajille että pidetään avainosaajista kiinni eikä irtisanota heitä, jolloin kilpailijat eivät saa heitä leipiinsä,
jos työntekijöistä on kuitenkin päästävä eroon ja jos osaajat luulevat pystyvänsä itse paremmin, erotettakoon heille omat osakeyhtiöt taikka pelastusveneet,
joissa emo-Nokialle jää iso omistus ja annetaan aloitusvaroja ja patentit käyttöön, mistä on se etu ettei tietopääoma menetetä ulos liian halvalla hinnalla.
Tuloksena kasvuyksiköitä automaattisesti ? Orderly abandon of the ship-> Nokia pelastusveneet yksikkönimiltä N9, Meltemi, Asha jne.

15. Opetettakoon organisaatiolle se jos asiat pilkkoo pienempiin osiin mikään asia ei ole erityisen vaikea, annetaan joille pikku osastoille itsenäinen asema
ja mahdollisuus vallankumoukseen, perustetaan "pelastusveneosastot" tyyliin N9 / N900 / N950 ympärille, tiettyyn päivään mennessä (esim 6 kk) tietyllä summalla
myyntikelpoinen ehdotus tuotantoon, taataan työrauha/työllisyys ja myyntisaatavuus vuoden, jos ei myy irtisanotaan KAIKKI ko. chapterin työntekijät ja myyntihenkilöt pois,
aloittaen johtajista (jotka viedään saunan taakse nokkospenkkiin uimaan)

16. Opetettakoon työntekijöille että he voivat itse tehdä vallankumouksen sisältäpäin, jos johtajat ovat väärässä,
jatkamalla työn ohessa esim. N9, Meltemin, N900/950 kehitystä ja TUODA uudet versiot myyntiin,
ja jos se kielletään kohdassa 14, he voivat aina perustaa yrityksen vaikka veroparatiisiin puhtaalta pöydältä emoyhtiön siipien alla tai siirtyä kilpailijalle.

17. Opetettakoon käyttäjälle kunnollisella paperisella ohjekirjalla ja youtube videoin kuinka Nokia viestintä käytetään ja mitä sillä voi tehdä käytännön esimerkein.
Koottakoon Google docsiin käyttäjien omia ohjekirjoja ja siitä kootaan sitten yksi täydellinen ohjekirja suosion eli latausten mukaan.

18. Nokia improvement opportunity window
Internetiin paikka johon kuka tahansa voi käydä jättämässä parannusehdotuksensa, omat teesinsä kuin Nokia nostetaan ylös katuojasta.
Tästä voisi avata vaikka ketjun Nokian uudet ominaisuudet, ehdotuksia. Lyhyitä esityksiä, linkkejä omaan materiaaliin nettisivuilla.
Idea ja ohjelmistokilpailuja järjestettävä, ns. referenssiohjelmia muutamia saatava eri alueille.
Jopa Ubuntu ja Tizen porttaukset olisivat mahdollisuuksia nekin, toimeen ryhdytään sitten kun 1 miljoona ennakkotilausta saatu periaatteella. Joka kivi käännetään tarvittaessa.

19. How about positivity among Nokia investors and users ?
Älköön kukaan enää "Vahva Osta Nokialle XX" ketjuun paskaa kirjoittako. Vaan siirtykää Nokian uskon puhdistus ketjuun tekemään hyviä tekoja, te luterilaiset veljet :)
Väärät profeetat palstoilta poistukoon, he jotka saarnaavat negatiivista Nokiaa ja siitä sairasta tyydytystä saavat, siihen aikaansa tuhlaavat, salamat otsaan heille heti,
he ovat näet kouluampujien ja perhesurmaajien henkisiä veljiä, luoja heitä auttakoon kun kansaa massapsykoosiin saatanallisesti viettelevät ja siten kurssia työajalla rommailevat.
Eli lopetaankos plis valitus ja voivottelu myös internet sijoitus yms. palstoilla:Jokainen tehköön mitä pystyy omalta osaltaan, perehtyy käyttöohjeisiin,
ostaa jopa uuden N9/N900 yms. puhelimen ennakkoluulottomasti, kertoo palstalle mitä haluaa, Nokia seuratkoon palstoja ja tuokoon parannukset markkinoille ripeästi.
Opetettakoon kaikille että negatiivinen ajattelu johtaa negatiiviseen kehitykseen ja positiivinen toiminta positiiviseen toimintaan, ennen pitkää.

20. Nokia cleansing opportunity. Venting the anger out of the system.
Johtajat jotka viedään julkiselle paikalle esim. Areenalle että jokainen työntekijä tai osakkenomistaja voi buuata tai heittää keittämättömillä kananmunilla,
siis. katharsis mahdollisuus kaikille luotava ilman että likapyykki pestään julkisesti. Käytännössä Facebook sivu tai anonyymisivu käy yhtälailla myös.
Anteeksipyyntö ja tämän jälkeen palataan töihin. Ei vaivata ennenkuin on valmista ja uusi hyvä esittelijä kohdan 2 mukaisesti tuo uutta (vanhaa) markkinoille. Työrauha.

21. Opetettakoon yleisölle se sovelluksista se että jatkossa internetissä sosiaaliset mediat, html5 ja flash tuki mahdollistavat jatkossa kenen tahansa tuottaa ja käyttää
multimediaa itse maksamatta siitä, jos ei halua, mutta se edellyttää Nokia viestintä (huom ei matkapuhelin sanaa enää) joka mahdollistaa freewaren käytön ja yksityisyydensuojan.
Käyttöjärjestelmästä ja kojetaulusta (skinistä) se ei jää kiinni. Käyttöjärjestelmät eivät suoranaisesti vanhene yhdessä kvartaalissa, ne kehittyvät luonnollisesti
asiakkaiden ja kulloisenkin raudan ehdoilla kunnes vuonna 2016 voidaan saavuttaa unified mobile os, olkoon se nyt esim. Windows mobile tai jokin muu 2-3 vaihtoehdosta.

22. Opetettakoon tuotehinnoittelijoille että hintakilpailulla on vain yksi suunta, alas, ELLEI hintaa voida perustella esim. Applen palvonnalla tai tuomalla
markkinoille selkeästi eroava (esim. uber-retro) puhelin tai Nokia fair ajattelu tai hybridilaitteet.
Hintoja voidaan korottaa jos perustellaan siirtämällä valmistus takaisin Suomeen sekä tuomalla uudelleen markkinoille Nokia fair mallisto.
Myös isolle perus retropuhelimelle (tiilelle, lankulle, simpukalle) naurettavan pitkällä käyttöajalla ja seikkaperäisellä käyttöohjeella sekä isolla antennilla
että näppäimistöllä (ei doro, isolle heterosormelle kuitenkin) voisi olla kysyntää."lapio" peruspuhelin valtaisalla käyttöajalla anyone ?
Jos ollaan vanhentuneita, ollaanpa sitten tosi överisti ja tuodaan esim. 3131 myyntiin uudestaan cityman konseptilla, N9,N900/N950 myös 2x akkukapasiteetilla
Pitää toimia kuin junan vessa, kaikki tarpeeton ja huono pois. Laatu, ei ominaisuuksien määrä. bluetooth ja usb vaan oltava mukana kuten audioplugi.

23. Opetettakoon Nokian radiokanavamiehille että digitaalisissa SOFI 05 & SOFI 06 häipymäsimulaattoreissa lisättäköön 10-12 dB polkuvaimennus GSM/3G tyyppihyväksyntäprofiileihin
ja huomataan "yllättäen" että Nokian RF olisi kohta kertaluokkaa kilpailijoita parempia BER/FER, nykykäytäntö on jumittunut vaatimattomalle vuoden 2005 haastetasolle
ja entisistä T&K pääkallopaikoista tullut hiton neuvotteluhuonehotelleja, taas kokous tai koulutus luurit päässä. Ennen riitti kun kertoi kouralliselle ihmisiä, nyt porukka
vaihtuu ja soppa sirpaloituu koko ajan vaan, homma on monimutkaistunut kaikille.Lopetetaan myös ulkoistukset osaamattomille Intialaisille, joille liioittelu ja sähkökatkot yms. ovat ominaisia.Hyvä kun osaavat RF-liittimet kiristää oikein jne.
Radiokanavamiehille riittänee töitä, sitten niille voidaan antaa kenkää, kun käyttölatenssit / radiot ovat riittävän hyviä taas 10 vuodeksi eteenpäin.
Rautahommia ei pidä tehdä vain siksi että rakastaa järjestelmien kokoamista ja tuotekehitystä tehdään hyllyyn ja kipataan tunkiolle timantteja (N9,meltemi) tuhkien mukana.
Enempää on pitkän uran ja salassapitosopimusten takia pysty sanomaan vaikka en ole Nokialla töissä.

24. On tunnustettava, että Suomi ei selviydy ilman Nokian työntekijöitä Suomessa, alihankkijat ja alan itseluottamus menee Nokian mukana. Rauta out, softa in toki.
Jos Suomesta tulee vain alkutuottaja, kaivosten ja metalliteollisuuden maa GDP -3% ? Euron hajoamisessa skenaariossa GDP -11% ?
Nokialle on annettava sille kuuluva oikea arvo itse omassa elämässä ja yhteiskunnassa, mutta sitä ei tule tukipaapoa, pärjätköön omillaan kun ei Suomeen veroja enää maksa.

25. Opetettakoon Nokian ostohuhuilijoille Nokia osakesäännöt lunastusmääräyksineen ja että Nokian palasten yhteinen reaaliarvo joka ylittää nykyisen osakekurssin reilusti,
sentimentti ja johdon viestintätaidot ovat vain syvältä ja se näkyy kurssissa. Älköön kukaan ei ostako Nokiaan velaksi tai vivulla, sama toki pätee fyysiseen kultaan.
Älköön kukaan lainatko osakkeita shorttaajille taikka myykö Nokia jos ei ole pakko. Jokainen tehköön päätöksensä itse jos osaa itse ajatella tai sitten lukee tämän ketjun
että lamppu alkaa pään päällä syttymään taas ihan itse.

26.Muistutettakoon Nokian historiikin kirjoittajalle vuonna 2016 se että kun edelliset 25 teesiä huomioitiin käytännössä Nokialla ja osakkeenomistajien parissa,
kurssilasku pysähtyi kesällä 2012 1.5 euron paikkeille ja kurssi sitten 5 kertaistui vuoteen 2016 juhannukseen mennessä, tämä siis valuutta/markkinahäiriöistä huolimatta,
suhteessa kultaan joka oli $2100/oz silloin negatiivisten bondikorkojen takia, koska valtio saattoi lainata rahaa "vapaan markkinatalouden" kustannuksella.
Nokiasta tuli ensin pienempi holdingyhtiö, osastot astuivat hallitusti pelastusveneisiin, osa niistä selviytyi myrskystä osa ei, ei mennyt koko lautta sentään merenpohjaan,
kun pelastusveneet saatiin takaisin satamaan, niitä koottiin uusia Nokia, jonka helmenä oli yllättäen NSN, jonka oppivat tukiasemat säästivät operaattoreiden rahoja
siinä kuin Nokian muista erottuvat viestimet tulivat muotiin takaisin toimintaherkkyytensä, varmuuteensa ja toiminta-aikansa ansiosta. Ohutnäppikset kuten tableteissa kokivat renesanssin.
Nokia palasi vahvuuksiinsa ja kannattavuuteen omilla ehdoillaan, otti B-suunnitelman käyttöön (Meltemi/Meego/Maemo uudelleen) Windows ohjelmistokehityksen rinnalle,
eli teki niitä rinta rinnan 6kk ajan, kuuntelemalla operaattoreita ja asiakkaita, tekemällä päätökset itsenäisesti tulojen saamiseksi, vaikka tiukille veti
lopulta kuluttajien luottamus Nokiaan palautui ja Suomalaiset Nokian osakkeenomistajat tekivät taas miljardi-tilin Nokialla !
Nokiaan pitää uskoa ja tehdä tarvittavat työt, oma osuutenssa, muuten pitää suosiolla poistua takavasemmalle imemään peukaloa osakkeensa liian halvalla myyneenä. Moni on jo näin tehnyt, et onneksi sinä.
Nokia myy yhä enempi kuin Samsung ja Apple yhdessä !
Joten ei muuta kuin Nokialla voittoja tekemään 2016 viimeistään...

[peter]

Nokia Lumia 900 is now a 0,01$ on amazon
http://www.amazon.com/Nokia-Lumia-Windows-Phone-Cyan/dp/B007P5NNDE/ref=zg_bs_2422313011_6

You Save: $499.98 (99%)

non Wp8 upgrade has been hurt dramatically nokia's lumias...

[Sander van der Wal]

@RyanZA

Even if you are right, then it still will not matter, as the number of dissatisfied users will be tiny compared to the total size of the market. But most people don't care that much. Maybe 10.000 people will tell 100.000 friends to stay away from Lumia. Big deal. If Nokia needs that 100.000 extra sales they are completely dead right now.

You do not need thousands of people to work out these logistics problems. Less than a hundred. Nowadays the needed computations are done by computers in a short while, not by people with mechanical desk calculators.

[cycnus]

@Sander van der Wal

20million+ unsatisfied WM user told 10 friend = 200 million+ stay away from lumia
50million+ unsatisfied Symbian user told 10 friend = 500Million+ stay away from lumia
1 million ex-sendo, ex-nokia, ex-novel, ex-netscape, etc. told 100 friend = 100Million+

total 800Million+ stay away from lumia...
and yes, microsoft need that user...

[RyanZA]

@Sander van der Wal

cycnus is correct. But even if he wasn't, those 10K people can write comments to blogs, they can be referred to by big players such as Engadget. When WP8 phone is released and Engadget and others publish reviews, there will be a big paragraph about how previous WP buyers were unable to upgrade their phones. The whole reviews tone will probably be set by it. Store employees at the retail chains will know all about it, and they will tell people coming in to buy a Nokia phone.

"Hey, you don't want one of those.. Nokia phones don't get upgrades and (insert excuses)! Here, take one of these store special Android devices full of our special Sprint adverts that I will get a large commission for selling to you as Sprint is sharing the revenue!"

http://developer.sprint.com/dynamicContent/place-your-ad/

And the customer is all too happy to listen to this as they know there is some truth there as they saw a mention of this issue in their local newspaper a few months back... There are always ripple effects when destroying your brand.

[zlutor]

The sad thing is Nokia has almost nothing to do with this upgrade problem still they will be blamed by the customers/sales people/bloggers...

They had no option but build phones based on restricted HW platform supported by WP7.5.
No deviation to be future proof was/is allowed - even though they probably knew this issue for months now...

[elm70]

@ExNokia

Tomi is since June 9 2011 saying that Elop should be fired.

Since that time Nokia declined in sales and in market value.

Plus Elop made further incredible management mistakes. His 11.2 Memo + Strategy announce was already enough for send him to share a jail with Madoff, instead he has been allowed to make the 14.6 new disaster ... just in time for kill the rumours and intention of acquisition coming from Asia.

Tchuss

e_lm_70

[elm70]

@ExNokian

Sorry, I don't share your point of view.
I'm reading Tomi since a while, I was shouting on 11.2.2011 when the madness of Elop was revealed to the world from the CES with Ballmer. That day Nokia made around 20% market capitalization lost (a record for just announce a new strategy) and it started a continuous downhill of Nokia stocks price, it was 8.48 before 11.2 announce, it is 1.7 as we speak.
On 11.2.11 Tomi did wrote how wrong was the decision of Elop.
On 9.6.11 Tomi repeat that Elop should be fired. (This was the blogs that I found time ago, while I was googleing who also share my view that Elop should be fired)
Sales and market value of Nokia did collapse since 11.2, the decision that was looking wrong by investor community on the 11.2.2011, it has been proven wrong by Nokia balance in Q1 2012.
Tomi prediction of Nokia sale collapse have been quite accurate.
Now, I don't understand which point you are trying to make.
If Nokia is doing bad, it is not the fault of Tomi. Actually Tomi did his best for try to wake up some people in order to protect Nokia from the criminal: Elop
Tchuss

e_lm_70

[RyanZA]

@ExNokian

I'd have agreed with you last year, but with this current Lumia fiasco and huge layoffs and desperate attempts to deny Nokia a 'Plan B', it's clear that Elop is intentionally trying to force Nokia to follow WP or starve (looks like it will starve). So given that, and that Nokia started to really lose value instead of only stumbling before the Feb 11 Elop memo, and that Elop had access to all of the figures and plans, it's very very difficult to see Nokias fast failure as anything but Elop's fault...

ie. The problems Nokia had before Feb 11 were very fixable and it would have been very difficult to see Nokia not being a large player in phones. If Elop did nothing, most carriers would still be pushing very cheap Symbian devices today with heavy carrier integration, etc. Because of Elop and WP and his memo, those carriers all left Nokia and now Nokia isn't even a player anymore.

Elop was meant to turn Nokia around and improve it, not speed it up by stabbing it with Microsoft till it bled to death... Just about any other CEO (even a rock that did nothing) would have been a major improvement.

[Sander van der Wal]

@cygnus

"20million+ unsatisfied WM user told 10 friend = 200 million+ stay away from lumia
50million+ unsatisfied Symbian user told 10 friend = 500Million+ stay away from lumia"

WM and Symbian collapsed because the competition was *way* better. Their friends have been told two years ago. All their friends bough an iPhone or an Android two years ago, and these people are now upgrading to there second device.

The idea that these people are now telling their friends Lumia is rubbish because they used to be WM or Symbian users in the previous decade is ridiculous.

[Walt French]

@vijay: When you post a long list of “facts,” it's good to be sure the FIRST one is correct. You can slip in the disinformation/propaganda later.

So your comment that FaceTime/Siri don't work on iPhone 4 is wrong in that FaceTime absolutely works on the iPhone4:

“Which Apple products support FaceTime?
To use FaceTime, you need one of the following Apple products:

iPhone 4 or later
iPad 2 or later
iPod touch (4th generation)
Mac with Mac OS X v10.6.6 or later”

You lost credibility the moment you opened your mouth, and over a mostly irrelevant point.

[Walt French]

Tomi, you make the point that Nokia has utterly poisoned its wells. If the Board dismissed Elop this evening and put you in charge of the selection committee for his replacement, who could restore Nokia at this point?

To be sure, there have been some hideous mistakes; some are inexplicable. For instance, Elop did not/was not able to INSIST that Lumia designs be capable of upgrade to WP8 (either thru original over-provisioning the hardware or extra software work by Microsoft).

But these mistakes are atop a global sea change in the cellphone business. You blame Palm's implosion on bad carrier relationships, but Palm had already slipped from the leading provider into “also-ran” status when the under-powered Pre was offered (late) against AT&T's and Verizon's heavy commitments to their own branding of Apple and Android phones.

More, your “carriers dictate” model does nothing to explain the parallel collapse of BlackBerry's business. RIM's relationship to carriers remains strong not despite, but BECAUSE of its BBM messaging that looks like a popular bypass for overpriced SMS plans. Still, the company's over-reliance on obsolete software is surely killing it. Surely, Nokia's troubles are IN PART due to the fact that customer expectations have shifted rapidly, and Nokia's products were NOT ready for 2011, 2012 and beyond.

(A recent US review of the PureView 808: incredible photos; Symbian, the reason not to buy it.)

It really is quite the shame: Nokia has had incredible engineering talent but didn't build a business; rather, it built multiple businesses, each with great parts (retail; cameras; Qt; …) that didn't add up to a force strong enough to compete against new entrants.

[PhoneBoy]

Something else no one has noted here: if Nokia (and Microsoft) were truly serious about addressing the US market, why restrict yourself to GSM only, thus only making yourself available to roughly half the addressable market in the US? (CDMA is at least 50% of the market)

[CN]

@PhoneBoy

I guess you refer to AT&T and TMO being the only ones currently having Lumia's in their portfolio?

Well, if Verizon, Sprint, Metro and Others don't want to have Lumia's, there's not a lot Nokia or MS can do about it.

Then again, both GSM- and cdma-camps are moving towards LTE, so eventually they all are more or less the same, not saying that legacy technology support can disappear just like that - it'll take years to have customer moved to LTE or even HSPA/EV-DO.

On the other hand, AT&T, TMO and now Verizon as well have committed to WP8, so that alone is just over 70% of US subscriber market.

Sprint and Metro are known to deploy their own LTE networks as we speak, Metro has taken it into commercial use already. Having cdma- and LTE engines in Lumia is not an issue whatsoever, so should WP8 be OK and Nokia have devices that please the markets, I'd say that access to 90%+ US markets is there.

[elm70]

@ ExNokia

I see Tomi blog "Undesirable at Any Price? What happened to Nokia, who invented the smartphone" ... actually it is not very critical with Nokia, but yes, nobody ever denies that Nokia with OPK was not doing perfectly.

OPK had been kicked out due to bad performance ... But not even Tomi would have expected a so bad strategy and execution from Elop.

Actually in the blog "Return of the Jedi: Nokia can be saved, here is the how" he indicate Elop as good candidate for turn around Nokia

Tchuss

e_lm_70

[Tochi]

What the usually well informed Tomi has missed in all of this is that Window Phone 7 developers may also be thrown under the bus here as were those of Win Mobile 6.5.

The fabled magic cloud compiler that promises to convert all Windows Phone 7 apps to WP8 is apparently without a track record.

As a software developer, I know for sure that magic compilation is usually quite a fantasy, the developer has to get involved - at least, an auto converted app has to be tested. Lets wait and see how Microsoft delivers on this magic tool.

Please follow the link below for more details

http://www.i-programmer.info/professional-programmer/i-programmer/4402-the-astonishing-tale-of-wp8-compiling-100000-apps.html

[HCE]

@vijay

> 1. do you know that Facetime and Siri DO NOT WORK on IPhone 3,3G,3GS, and 4 ?

OK. Some features don't work but the important thing is that many new features do and most apps written for iOS 5 will work on the iPhone 3GS and 4. BTW - iOS 5 will not work at all on the 3G but that is fine since the iPhone 3G was introduced in 2008.

> 2. do you expect a phone without a camera to take photos after an OS upgrade ?

So - your point is what exactly? If the old model is missing a hardware feature then sure, any new software feature that works with that hardware feature will not work on the old phone.

> 3. did you hear of wp7.8 ?

If WP 7.8 could run WP 8 apps then we would have less of a problem.

> 4. do you know that except Samsung, none of the other android phones are profitable ?

Well, no one is bleeding market share like Nokia has been and Nokia's market share loss will become worse now that Ballmer has seen fit to knife Nokia in the back.

> 5. did you ever hear about commodity devices and downward price spiral ?

I didn't know that the Lumia 900 was supposed to be a commodity device.

> 6. do you know that a painted rock with a sony or apple written on it would sell, but that a nokia written on a gold tablet cannot sell in US ?

Nokia didn't sell because it never established good relationships with carriers in the US. Anyway, the US is not the issue here. Nokia's problems are world-wide. Actually, the US may have been one of the brighter spots for the Lumia line.

> 7. do you know that android 2.3.x share is 65% and android 4.x is 7% ?

Yes - this is a problem with Android. Uptake of a new Android version is slow. It will take a fair bit of time before Android 4 is adopted - but it will be. In the end, most flagship phones will get a 4.x upgrade. The Lumia 900 will never be upgraded to WP8 or later version.

Also - please note that Android gets repeatedly dinged for this and Google and the OEMs have acknowledged that this is a problem. However Android is in a much better market position than WP and such issues will not have an overly deleterious effect on their market share. Not so for WP.

> 8. do you know that wp8 has 18months guaranteed upgrades period ?

It is reasonable to expect that any phone coming should be upgradable to new OS versions coming out in the next 18-24 months. Anything beyond that is a bonus. Had the Lumia 900 been upgradable to WP8 but not to later releases, that may have been borderline acceptable. However, if a phone released a few months ago is already obsolete - then that is completely unacceptable.

> 9. do you know that a phone lifetime is 10. do you know that a phone is no longer a phone but a computer ?

Which is why we have a problem. Nobody cared about the OS on their old feature phone. Today, the name of the game is apps and current WP phones not getting WP8 upgrades means that they will not be able to run any of the apps created for WP8. If a computer cannot run programs, its usefulness is greatly diminished.

- HCE