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« A Few Thoughts about Microsoft's Tablet PC, the Surface | Main | Revised Nokia 2012 Market Share Projections, Revenues, Profits ASPs by Quarter »

June 26, 2012

Comments

P

@ExNokian

You should read this because it is spot on - http://www.mobile-review.com/articles/2012/birulki-176-en.shtml

Tomi T Ahonen

More comments

Hi Ryan, Spawn, Jaakris, peter, Sander, Ryan, Zlutor and elm

Ryan - good points. The Nokia top exec departures were a very troubling sign and I commented on it often. This Windows 8 madness is one obvious case of where any sane Nokia exec would have had problems (as with the Burning Platforms memo, the non-sales of N950, the limited sales of N9, the Osborning of MeeGo, the orphaning of Qt etc etc etc and now the end of Meltemi)

Very good points about the early buyers of Lumia who will now be ashamed of it. And yes, of the logistics problems - Nokia didn't use to have this problem, now it can't even solve it because many of those experts have been fired

Spawn - I did mention it, but we haven't gotten definite confirmation - and I don't much trust the 'official denials' haha. I think the Surface tablet is certain proof Microsoft has no qualms anymore about competing directly with hardware rivals. I read today that HP is now thinking of ending its Windows 8 based tablet due to Microsoft's Surface. Which do you think would sell more? The world's largest PC maker or the company who has never yet sold one PC? I think this damage by Microsoft will be bigger in the long run than Ballmer sees - but its typical Ballmer, he is not a strategic thinker at all.

Jaakris - thank you for the long comment in Finnish from comment left at Kauppalehti. Very good points. I will deal with them separately. Thank you Jaakris and if I understood correctly that this was not you, but comments by a friend of yours, please send my best regards to your friend. He or she is truly welcome to come here at CDB and leave comments here also in Finnish, we would love to hear and discuss further!

peter - ouch! that must be a world record from $499.99 to $0.01 in what, eleven weeks.

Sander - good point too, but its the word-of-mouth matter (what we wrote about in CDB the book haha). So these early first hundreds of thousands and even early millions of Lumia owners - they will be the extreme fanatic who either utterly loves Microsoft/Windows or loves Nokia. They have now been burned and many who have been so fiercely loyal and loving, will easily turn to hatered and anger. Many who trusted Elop and Nokia (and Micrsoft) will now feel utterly burned and backstabbed and some will become very vocal critics. That is literally poisoning the only well left of Nokia smartphones good will that Nokia had left.

cygnus - haha, exactly!

Ryan - also very good points. The sales store rep is the final key to the damage. The existing view of Nokia Lumia and Windows smartphones was bad, at the retail store sales level. This story reinforces the bad view, it makes the 'suspicion' of Nokia Lumia being a bad choice 'confirmed' in the minds of the sales reps. They will not want to make the mistake of selling another undesirable Windows phone again - and will steer their customers asking for Lumia or Windows - to select Android or iPhone instead.

zlutor - good point. This was not a problem created by Elop, this is something Microsoft does habitually just by not caring about its channel and partners, by being the Evil Empire. Sadly, it seems to be that Elop knew of this, and did nothing. That means Elop was also in with the hoax and has duped loyal Nokia customers into buying an obsolete product

elm - we totally agree and you remember I was here calling for Elop to be fired - and you were there with me agreeing to it, one year ago. Why is the Nokia Board delaying the obvious?

Thank you all, keep the comments coming

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Just on the long comment from Jaakris

Thank you very much! Excellent points. I tend to agree with it all. I'll select a few to comment here in English to our readers

2 - yes, if any Nokia exec has a habit of causing damage to Nokia share value when he or she opens his or her mouth, that exec must be moved to a non-visible position (or fired). Totally agree. Look at Elop and whenever he opens his mouth, the Nokia share price crashes. Some of the most painful were about the N9 and MeeGo

3 - excellent point. We should be told, is there a clause in Windows Phone marketing that forbids Nokia from promoting its own MeeGo, N9 and N950 smartphones.

8 - so true! if you develop a platform and don't market it, that is the costliest possible option (MeeGo, Meltemi). Nokia should at least attempt to market these fully and let the market decide which platform it wants, as they were ready to launch

10 - so true also! if the operators do not want Skype, then don't force it down their throats! Make Nokia phones with adaptations without Skype to satisfy the operators (and yes! this kind of customization could well be done with software and handset optimizing talent from Finland)

13 - Nokia payments (Nokia Money). Agree totally, unfortunately that project was also just sold

14 - brilliant point - if Nokia is to fire staff, then prepare orderly 'life boats' of various Nokia units like N9, Meltemi, Asha etc - where Nokia keeps minority ownership, removes a whole unit, sets it up as an independent to continue in the ecosystem. Definitely the N9 (and N950) with MeeGo would have life beyond today, and definitely Meltemi based low-cost smartphones would have life in Africa, India etc, and if Nokia supported these, Nokia could reduce headcount while still helping the industry and keeping a piece of the potential if that turns out to be a winner.

20 - haha lovely thought - bring Nokia management to public square to face public, take the boos and be thrown rotten eggs - to get catharsis and cleansing. This could also be done on YouTube or Facebook. Make the Nokia management take responsibility in public - and apologise.

22 - excellent point about price wars (futile) and that one should not blindly follow Apple. There is big demand to other form factors, even 'old' phones with big buttons, in Emerging World markets and in places where manual labor is done etc.

26 - lovely thought also, that if Nokia were to wisen up now, to reintroduce its MeeGo and Meltemi platforms to run parallel with Windows - and let the carriers/operators and markets and consumers decide what they want - the result is pretty obvious and Nokia can come back. The writer thinks that by 2016 by this strategy Nokia could be bigger than Apple or Samsung once again in smartphones (Tomi coment - this was more likely three months ago, I am very afraid the timing is past by now)

Very very good comments. If you can, take the whole long comment and post into Google Translate and read. All 26 points are very good, some very technicial, some very strategic. All of them valid, and all ones I would support and agree with. Thank you Jaakris for reposting that from Kauppalehti and our best regards to your friend! He must have a deep love for Nokia as do many also here at CDB who post comments here

Tomi Ahonen :-)

CN

And get a SGSIII from TMO Germany too. 1 Euro only. Must be another World Record of such low price for a device that sells like hell.

And I hope, with this, you all understand what's behind this 1 cent Lumia. If such low price is a bad thing for Nokia, maybe you explain me why it might not be so bad for Samsung?

anti

Regarding the update from June 27th from Tomi, I still want the "fire sell" 1 cent Lumia 900 from Amazon WITHOUT CONTRACT!!!

Someone please enlighten me if it's true or only a lie or miss understanding?

CN

@anti

Without contract? In your dreams.

It's very same as what TMO Germany offers. SGS at 1 Euro, with a 24 month contract.

It is just that in this blog, Lumia at 1 cent is a disaster, but SGS at 1 Euro is not. These guys will repeate it over and over again, how dramatic it is that the price of Lumia is so low and never will they tell us in loud that they do understand what this is about. See, these guys don't want to admit that they have been somewhat stupid. Just like the example on launching in Easter when shops are closed.

Think about it, we needed Eldar to say it out loud until these guys figured out how it was actually a planned move from Nokia and MS. :-) You don't really think that they don't have a calendar in their hands when planning a launch?

Earendil Star

Yeah, MS, Nokia & AT&T lauched the Lumia 900 on Easter Day, when most shops were closed. On purpose. It was a planned move.

The reason? They did not want people to discover right away that their new phone was a brick.
Or maybe they just did not want to engage in the "we have sold XXX devices on the first week" battle.
Well, if you have less than 2% of market share and your competitors 80% it is understandable.

The Lumia was supposed to sell at 200$ plus two year contract.

Ooops. Then, after the network bug was discovered, it was put at zero (with contract). Mmmh. Wonder why...!
Flagship? What flagship? It's already obsolete. The future is WP8, guys...
Yeah, that WP8 whose sibling W8 crashed when IE10 was launched by Sinofski.
I feel better now. Despite these new smartphones and tablets, we won't be missing the nice old buggy world MS likes to offer us.

YesWeCan

About Easter Day launch... IF it was a planned move, those people tried to be too smart and read too much into consumer behavior (in fact they were imbeciles that should be fired right away, fired, tarred, and featheread and possibly lynched). It was a disaster. It caused Lumia to be forgotten already the next monday. Those people are very stupid, very arrogant, alienated from the reality of marketing.

"They tried to be smart... but they were just a bunch of idiots" (punchline) HaHa!

Earendil Star

@ ExNokian, ooops, sorry, I heard so many times MS saying the Lumia was a flagship that I forgot it launched at only 99$, the level usually found on low-end, entry level phones (not me saying this, it's a quote from Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyclay/2012/04/11/nokia-finds-glitch-in-new-lumia-900-now-offering-phone-for-free/).

Again, was this low price tag related to WP7 being a stopgap OS and Lumias no flagships (they were underspec'd since inception, despite the propaganda), or just a marketing jimmick from a wannabe phone OS supplier? I do not know. In any case, a disaster, just as the supposedly intentional (?) Easter Day launch.

Kudos to all those consumers who chose better alternatives and were not caught in this WP7 already obsolete thing.

Ah, I checked your site. Could not see any comments. Looks like a parody of Tomi's blog. Who's behind it? Lol.

Cheap Laptop Computers

Nokia with Windows Phone combines the best in stylish hardware with the best in stylish software.Windows Phone is a mobile operating system developed by Microsoft, and is the successor to its Windows Mobile platform

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cycnus

If this platform/OS sell more than WP7/8
http://blog.gsmarena.com/alcatel-and-zte-to-manufacture-first-boot-2-gecko-phones/

Balmer, Belfiore and Elop need to be fired

zlutor

@cycnus: can Boot2Gecko be behind Nokia Air?

http://www.engadget.com/2012/06/25/nokia-air-promo-surfaces-teases-what-could-have-been/

Now it is official that there is plan B - surprise, surprise -, Meltemi has been canned, Firefox announced its new OS, major network operators supports it...

Conteo heats up... :-)

elm70

@ zlutor

The video on YouTube can mean all and nothing.
You can assume that Nokia is now going for the Plan B.
Or you can assume there was a Pland B (we don't know how old is this video), and after Plan B has been erased on 14.6 ... somebody intentionally leaked it ... as personal CV for get a new job .. this video show how cool was the work done in Nokia, so these people can point it out as reference in their CV ;-)

Tchuss

e_lm_70

ps: After 14.6 ... I believe if there was any doubt that there is no Plan B ... it has been confirmed ... there is no Plan B ... Nokia is just a arm of Microsoft for promote Windows Phones

elm70

Shoocking NEWS:

How good is selling Lumia 900 in US via AT&T ?

Look at here : http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-US-monthly-201106-201207

In May 2012 , WP got a peak of 1.09%
In June was declining to 1.02%
And July is going more down : 0.94%

For not be able to keep on GS stats count a percentage of only 1% in the "in use" market ...
It means new sales are less then 1%

That's a TOTAL DISASTER for Windows Phone.

No wonder WP8 has no back compatibility, there is no need to keep back compatibility with the "NOTHING" : less then 1% Mobile OS

Tchuss

e_lm_70

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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