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« Brief Commentary on Today's Nokia Bad News Day (updated 3x) | Main | News Update Only, Blogs Coming Soon »

June 15, 2012



@Tomi and everyone else:

My biggest fear regarding nokia is that it will die... not because a great company is gone, but because their patent pool. What will happen with it if nokia really dies? Someome will buy it and will use it for his own favour advantage. And now imagine what Apple or Microsoft could do with the biggest and most important patent pool for mobile products.

So, if MS buys the patents = ALL phones will be more expensive (samsung, apple, everything that can make mobile phone call) because MS wants to make money.

But, imagine if Apple, and this would be the worst case scenario, buys the pool. They would try to sue everybody to banish everything that hasnt an apple on it.

everybody should think about the situation if apple buys the patent pool of nokia. remember when steve jobs said about android that he hates it so much that he would start a nuclear war to destroy android and everything around it!? With that pool apple could do it and would be successfull.

And then, everybody HAS to buy an apple to communicate with his friends...

I know that this is far from present, but i think that it is a situation that could become true in the future...

Leading Analyst

Kenny, N9,

I said "1st use experience". Just count how many clicks do you need in order to fully sync to Google's online services (Gmail, Address book and calendar synced). Please write here what steps you had to do. Tech savvy users are able to get around these things, but they are a minority. Even Symbian does it better, for this specific use case. And I have used N900 as my primary device for 1.5 years - it was a kick-ass device. All it would have needed is some fine tuning a global portrait mode.

I have also used Lumias 710,800 and now 900. They offer a very nice user experience with extremely low learning curve, and the 1st use feel is great. Enter my Google credentials and I am ready to go. Sure, WP has a lot of restrictions but for me the positives beat the downsides by far - in that sense they are similar to iPhone. Simplistic, maybe overly so, but all the most common use case scenarios work beautifully.


Kunitoki, get a grip, 40000 people out of work == 40000 families minus one income (+ all the subcon, second and third tier employees who will lose their jobs also due to this), this is no laughing matter, no one "deserves" this.
My beef is with the quitters, the current and ex-employees who give up on Nokia, cut and run, leave, constantly whining, without even trying to fix things from the inside.
It's too easy to run, no "Sisu" in that is there.
Tomi Ahonen, I don't count you in with the quitters, you left many years ago, but you still love Nokia and are still trying to save it. Your attitude, and that of the many people who aren't quitters, people who (often even though they are effectively fired) are still working their ass off every day to save Nokia, those people i respect deeply.
I only fear that their (i guess in full disclosure i should write: our) numbers are so diluted by now that we have lost critical mass.


@Leading Analyst:
thanks for telling who pays your salary-- through your answer about Lumia and WP7!!!

maybe you cant see the humour-- but LTOMATA is quite a nice guy-- among the most down to earth guys.
I'm Asian and having met him-- I'll say he is a great guy.


Nokia has truly been "Smoked by Windows Phone" :/


well said non-quitter.

also, the previous post that board of directors asked him to implement xxx strategy...

to me that shows how disconnected the BOD are with the reality of today's tech industry.

today almost anything can work-- provided you are willing to react fast-- if it's about a strategy being dictated annually... and a CEO being supported to implement BOD's strategy... even at the cost of losing their entire senior management and skilled workforce...
then it's craziness.

Would love to read more on that-- either from Tomi or from any of the readers who knows more.

awesome analogy and title-- comparing to Titanic Deckchairs the current situation of Swedish company buy while dumping people and profitable product lines.



"Location-based services (the worst-performing mobile service category of all time) suddenly into a 'winner' ? Wow, give me some of that crack cocaine you are smoking Mr Elop. So just as we hear Apple adding its mapping stuff to the iOS with TomTom, you can somehow now suddenly turn the loss-maker into a profit engine? Wow, cool? Happy that you were able to tell us this magic dust and how it works, Mr Delusional."

Tomi, with respect, you are so totally wrong, it proves again that you have no clue about LBS business at all, do you know what and how much Google, Microsoft and Apple are investing their money these days? Location based services! (2D/3D Mapping, navigation). Please see only from automotive industry point of view or just think about the combination of AR and LBS, man, you have no clue at all. The way you are thinking is so 90s and only from operator perspetive. Wake up! The world is changing and moving faster than you can imagine!


@Leading Analyst, at this moment I'm sure you were talking about the N900 and not the N9...

acounts-> add -> google -> user+pass - and its done including picasa all the mail calendar etc...and you can do exactly the same for ....
skype - exchange server - facebook - twitter - nokia acount - aol - caldav - dropbox - flickr - icq - msn - and many others.

simple and its 3 simple obvious steps that Im sure you have to do any ware.


You very well know Nokia lost critical mass/structure one year ago.
Nokia was build up as an extemely fast growing company, taking in competence widely spread geographically even within Finland.
Many things in Nokia has worked and been 'fixed' due to personal networks in spite of relentless reorgs.
The wild restructuring with site focus that Elop executed together with the first heavy cuts, destroyed that and rendered the company incapable of operating efficiently. Elop shuffles org like it is SW modules and his ever failing LT (same people shuffling chairs but making same mistakes)had largely little clue how things really functioned in practice. In any cased they had been efficiently subdued not to raise voice. Hence Elop manages blind and without experience - of course he will fail in execution - he has only himself to blane.
Sure especially Symbian was overweight and over time had to be replaced. Sure there was abundant fragmentation and inefficient decision paths. Still you need to resolve this in a manner that allows operation despite that adding to 'the overhead'.
WP strategy was not a fail, Elop execution was and M$'s inherent inability to act as a true partner added to the misery.
I am sincerely saddened to see Nokia in this terminally ill state and hope the death struggle will be swift and merciful.


Thanks Tomi for the wonderful insights and analysis/predictions. This is my first comment on your site.
I was there in one of the halls when the burning platform announcement was made in Bangalore and most people walked out even before Q&A had started. Nobody expected this move. I regard myself stable and strong with over 14 yrs in the industry, but even I felt sick at the end of the announcement. I also hear many ex-symbian folks have even quit or moved out of Accenture now. I too left. The smarter ones left Nokia within weeks after the burning platform memo. They foresaw this coming. They predicted this. You predicted this. But the CEO, the board, many of the analysts and even IDC/Gartner predictions did not.

ps: Wonder if they ever issue apologies on past bad predictions ...


"even IDC/Gartner predictions did not"

Ha. Have they ever predicted anything right?

"Wonder if they ever issue apologies on past bad predictions ... "

Of course not. They need to sell more of the same.

Elop is a bloody flop

Time to die, Nokia. Pull the plug on the life support, stop all treatment and enter palliative care.

It is 'succeed or die' for Nokia, observers say after cuts

You should have known better than to let that vampire Elop suck the life force out of you.


I have always wondered how investors saw major cuts as a positive indicator.
All major cuts like the recent one in Nokia and the one a year earlier sends a shockwave through an organization that takes time to overcome. Meanwhile performance is significantly reduced and middle/higher management spends most of their time in internal bloody fights and organizing the pieces. Especially a second big cut within a year destroys all employee trust in management and renders employees in a defensive fight for individual survival or pure apathy.
Managing like this leaves no room for quick improvements as it leaves the company temporarily unmanageable. In addition it destroys the opportunity for leveraging on any type of success/recover.
Essentially this is pissing in your pants to keep warm type of management. It might bring a short warming feeling, but you have soiled yourself and will soon freeze even more.
A second big cut shortly after the first not only demonstrates an utter incompetence from the CEO it also is a tell taile sign that you have lost the overview and you are in true panic.
There is only one thong the BOD can do in a situation like this. Replace the CEO with a new to restore a minimum of control and to demonstrate their ability to act in the interest of the shareholders. Secondly com to a conclusion of whether the company is terminal ill or not. If yes, immediately start discussions with buyers for the individual parts to salvage the maximum value for shareholders.
What is not permissible for the BOD in this situation, is to be passive. In this situation, an acting and responsible BOD needs to regain control and that starts by nominating a new CEO to replace the one that has objectively lost control.


You cannot turn a turkey into eagle, right?

I see the current Nokia programmers as turkeys..they have the C++ and Symbian knowledge but they don't have the Web 2.0. knowledge, Mashup knowledge, Angry birds knowledge, Facebook knowledge, Twitter knowledge.... They don't understand Concurrency, Cloud services, Location Based Services, Virtualization...

But those people who know about those current technologies are out there! Nokia must get those people to work for Nokia to make it the Biggest of All once again!


@Mikko: Have they ever predicted anything right?

Apparently not:

That's why I'm so surprised by reaction of press: how many articles discussed IDC's crazy prediction AND at least recalled previous bogus predictions?

THIS is why newspapers are dying: Internet made it easy to compare current "news" with old "news" and the result shows that newspapers publish rubbish under guise of news... which raises the question: why should I pay for this disinformation if I need to then go and reverify everything anyway?


A couple of weeks ago I predicted Nokia has a life expectancy of max eight weeks...

I think I was dead on!

I guess now it is two weeks left... Upholstery is being chopped and rest is sold!


IP and Patents.
Nokia will continue to buy up businesses that provide them with IP and/or Patents.
The company is dying so this sort of thing won't make much of a difference in the end except for one thing:
The long foreseen and expected buy out of Nokia will yield MS a treasure trove of Patents that will keep their coffers full from licensing deals for years to come.

That the Lumia 900 is the only identified Mobile Handset in Nokia's existing product line-up that will be able to be upgraded to WP8 sounds the death knoll on sales of their lower sized/specced WP7 handsets.
It's not enough that they kill off Symbian, MeeGo and Meltemi, they also are happy to kill sales of their own WP handsets which should have been future proofed, if only as a result of very close relationship that the MS Deal should have provided.

In the meantime, the likes of Samsung and HTC are pumping serious cash into Tizen as their Google "buffer" OS and if OpenMobile's ACL brings the goods to the table, they will be shipping handsets compatible with an existing ecosystem/market, that requires little or no further investment on their part.

Microsoft = MS = "Mobile Sclerosis"
Bringing atrophy to competition in the mobile arena through the slow degeneration of growth and development and using secondary infections (did someone say Elop?) to harm their hosts...

Robert Atkins

When Apple Computer was doing poorly in the '90's, the BOD fired Steven Jobs. Steven Frickin' Jobs, one of the Founders of the company! It may not have been best decision, but they had the balls to do what they deemed proper to save the business.
Where is that attitude on Nokia BOD? Elop founded Nothing, he is import from the Evil Empire, and has been responsible for near total destruction of Nokia. And the BOD is sitting on their hands watching their boy bring shame and unemployment to Finland and Nokia.
This is so irrational, there must be unknown forces behind the scenes that is compelling the Board to let Elop continue w. his agenda.
I think Tomi nailed it in earlier blog - Elop is either Criminal or Insane. Either way, why is he still in that job?


@ Robert Atkins

I agree. There is something fishy in the Board of Directors that they continue to allow this go on and on - it is worth of criminal investigation, but the participants have done nothing. However, the same could be asked from the share holders, especially those who wished Nokia to join forces with Microsoft have probably taken quite a hit on their shares. Why no actions from their side?

Unless, these share holders also have shares in other mobile companies and have been able to write off their losses in Nokia with the growth of others?


Robert Atkins: "When Apple Computer was doing poorly in the '90's, the BOD fired Steven Jobs."

Jobs left Apple in 1985 and returned in 1997.

But yes, unless Elop gets the boot very soon, there's something fishy going on with the Nokia board. Obviously Elop had their support in putting all eggs in the Windows Phone basket, and I suppose it's only logical that the board would give the new strategy a chance to show some results before they change CEOs again. Arguably enough of the results are now in, and it's not working, but the trouble is that the company has been driven past the point of return in the process. The board must have approved of the killing of Meltemi, too. Maybe the speed change in the smartphone market genuinely played a trick on the BOD? Stranger things have happened (to more competent people, I might say).

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