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June 08, 2012

Comments

Tizzy

Nokians won't know what hit them if Samsung takes them over. I've worked for both companies -- the corporate culture in Nokia is so relaxed -- reasonable working hours, regular breaks -- Samsung, on the other hand, has a killer work environment. Long days, obedience to superiors -- what a shock to the system that would be.

KPOM

@AtTheBottomOfTheHilton, the GM bailout was very controversial here, but it was done during the middle of the financial crisis. It wasn't done to thwart foreign investors (indeed, the best parts of Chrysler were basically handed to Fiat with almost no risk and all reward), but rather to prop up a big union worker base in Detroit. I'd have preferred a traditional bankruptcy myself.

So Vatar

The Finnish government won't get involved and they should not.
Nokia has no value as ongoing concern, although some parts could be valuable to someone.
Nokia is on its way to liquidation if not bought out. There losses are unsustainable, they are bleeding cash, their strategy is laughable and their results prove it.

If there will be a buy out hinges solely on status and value of patents Nokis still has under their full control. If most is signed away as some web sites claim, then it is game over. Sure, there will be shareholder law suits, but there will be no money left to give back to shareholders after a few more months with the existing board and Elop on the steering wheel.

If there is still a valuable patent portfolio, then a bidding war may start. If and when is everyone's guess.

The problem all of us here have is that we do not know the status of Nokia's remaining IP. Some patents were signed away, yes, but was it the major and most relevant portion? We just don't know, and third tier websites like seeking alpha, fools, or forbes blogs are proven to have no clue.

Derp

Symbian is dead, there will be no resurrection, the engineers are now Accenture employees and the offices where the technical work was done are being wound down. All that's happening now is 'knowledge transfer' where decades of experience is being 'copied and pasted' into the mind of developers in low-cost countries. There will be no more innovation on this platform because the skills are no longer in the company. Also, I don't see anyone wanting to work for Nokia again because the wages are poor, the workplace is unbelievably bureaucratic and if you wish to advance your career, or have your opinion count, you need to be based in Finland. Not an attractive proposition for most people.

NoNameRequired

Samsung and Apple are not likely take-over candidates, since their massive dominance in the industry would trigger regulatory antitrust issues. Google probably has the same problem now after the Motorola acquisition.

As many have mentioned, it seems that Nokia is now full of poison pills for any take-over candidate. For that reason, many are probably watching the class action lawsuit and Google's antitrust lawsuit very closely, to see what comes out from discoveries in these lawsuits. Once they are known, the true cost-benefit of a hostile take-over can be estimated.

My best bet is that either a private equity firm will buy it, split it up and offer all the interesting parts to whoever wants them, or Microsoft will do it.

pharazon

How about the anti-trust legislation of Nokia-Samsung merger? I think a such monopoly would need approval from the EU (not US though).

Similarly Apple-Nokia merger would probably hit anti-trust procedures.

Tomi fantasises about ex-Nokia Managers taking over, I can't see that happening (they are too poor :)

Actually the original reason of Nokia's downfall started already 12 years ago when they grew too big and started to manage the company like a factory (or maybe they have always done that). Unfortunately it's not the way how a software company should be run. It worked well for NSN and dumb phones when they were mostly hardware, but since 2007 the phones have been about software. Nokia is not a software company. Thus there is low value in the organization & skill left inhouse. The Nokia management has never knewn how to run a software company up to this date.

Read the manage from above. The bloated 100 000 employee Nokia organization model is having 25 managers for 1 employee. There is a lot of efficiency in that :) Nokia has outsources all other competences except management and architecture. They are in the business of management (should move in selling management consultancy to other bloated corporations). The excess management layer leads into a political organization - and thus ex-Nokia managers who have lost in the politics game, and are thus wrathful.

Tomi has a point in the value of the hardware business. I can't see any future in Nokia's software, what ever the platform. Thus the most probable buyer will be a big investment banker who can accumulate 10B$. In the days of financial crisis, I can't see anybody but the Chinese to have sufficient funds to reward the risk.

The (bidding) game is on!

SamKB

Tomi, thank you for mentioning my 101 Shortcomings of Windows Phone. The list has been updated with 20 bonus shortcomings to make a total of 121. All disputed items have been resolved and the list is to the best of my knowledge accurate. The original list had some disputes because some manufacturers made special provisions, there were updates which corrected some of the flaws and some were not written clearly. The list can be accessed here:

http://my-symbian.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=392155#392155

eduard0

Anybody know how much cash Nokia has, and how fast it is burning it?

Dared

@LeBase,

Tizen has taken so long as MeeGo's app environment is based on Qt, whereas Tizen is HTML5 - so the code needed to be rewritten

Also, Nokia made all it's money from its Symbian based phones. Not just that, but it's new Pureview tech runs on Symbian, not WP. If they were still using Symbian they could get that tech out a lot faster, rather than spend the time to make WP compatible with it

RobDK

I have read several articles mentioning unfinanced pension commitments in Nokia's pension fund, and that the money owed here is larger than the current cash reserves. Hence the junk status on Nokia's debt papers. Does anyone have any better knowledge?

If there is a pension problem, then that would explain the lack of interest in taking over, or liquidating Nokia....

Kenny

The Pureview 808 has gone on sale but in a very low key manner. Its price is set higher than Lumia 800. Nokia is only selling in limited quantities and it does not want to promote this phone for fear it will compete with Lumia. Never has a company acted with such fear towards its own product. If the Lumia is truly a good product why not let it compete on a level playing field with N9 and Pureview? Or does Nokia think it can shaft an inferior product down consumers' throats?

Rosita S. Kirk

Nokia has really fallen into trouble nowadays, due to its reluctance to change. They forget the idea that the world keeps change all the time. Hope they could learn a lot through this failure.

TheOneThatGotAway

Tommy misses one important aspect on Intel.
Intel owns Infineon whose chipsets have for years been in by far the largest part of Nokia's dumb phones.
By letting Nokia slip to other suitors, Intel risks loosing a lot of business.
Before Elop, the relationship between Intel and Nokia were very close/strategic.

Nokia's footprint has been so large, that disentangling old supplier relations due to a collaps of Nokia, essentially disrupts alot of the component supplier business as well.

pingpong

NSN is 50/50 co-owned bei Nokia and Siemens: Any buyer of Nokia would have to settle with Siemens about NSN- and a settlement would not be about cash alone, as Siemens cannot risk another Benq disaster. So I bet NSN is the reason why no one has tried to buy Nokia so far.

anobserver

I believe that the smartphone unit is the _least_ interesting for a potential buyer -- except for very few choice pickings like camera technology and Pureview patents. Not even Microsoft will bother about it.

This is because of
a) the turmoil and demoralization during the Elop epoch;
b) the disorganization brought by constant changes in strategy and the associated internal fiefdoms (Maemo, Meego, S90, Symbian, WP);
c) the loss of corporate know-how (in particular, but not only, of Symbian developers to Accenture);
d) the stranglehold imposed by arrangements with Microsoft.

The smartphone unit is in complete disarray; in contrast, the feature phone division is comparatively in good shape, has its factories churning out products, and could be reorientated by a clever and decided acquirer. Navteq is interesting in itself, and NSN reorganized (with lots of streamlining and pruning) by a Huawei, ZTE, or Cisco.

J.O. Aho

@Dared:
I don't think Nokia has the possibility to make WP compatible with their hardware, but it's the other way around that Nokia has to make the hardware WP compatible.
If I don't mistake, MS was talking about getting the PureViews camera supported sometime in 2013.
The specs of WP phones are always the same, it's not like with Android that you will see a lot different hardware for the same version of Android.

John

I dont know how it will go with Nokia. But are Windows Phone bad? If look at the app development it seems to work very fine:
http://allaboutwindowsphone.com/news/item/14960_100000_apps_published_to_Windo.php

Can Nokia last to Windows Phone Apollo, they will compete with the hardware to:
http://www.concept-phones.com/nokia/nokia-lumia-evolution-runs-windows-phone-apollo-pretty/
http://www.gsmarena.com/microsoft_to_unveil_windows_phone_apollo_on_june_20-news-4339.php

Would Microsoft give up the smartphone market if it get more important than the PC?
http://bizmology.hoovers.com/2012/03/29/smartphone-shipments-grow-may-outpace-windows-pc-sales-by-2016/

Well, maybe I am wrong but I dont think so. If Microsoft abandon Nokia who else will the make a deal with?

eduardo

The Register claims Microsoft looked at buying Nokia, but decided not to, at least for now

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/06/11/microsoft_nokia_merger/

Sturmmann

Samsung is also a telecommunication network equipment manufacturer. I think that NSN would be useful for Samsung.

anobserver

All those speculations are a bit overblown -- and already stale, as Samsung officially denied interest in acquiring Nokia:

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/11/us-samsung-nokia-idINBRE85A0AN20120611

The comments to this entry are closed.

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