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« What Is Value of Knowing Future - Will your business, industry, career continue as you know it? | Main | Smartphone Markets Shares in 2012, some relevant illustrations to understand the Bloodbath »

June 04, 2012


Henry Sinn


Fantastic. Can't wait to get a copy and have a read...

I note SMS, besides voice, is THE primary and ubiquitous connecting medium - for everyone... [which of course becomes part of the link to interest, consumption / transaction via tiny URLs]

Alex Kerr

Hey Tomi,

Good data thanks. As you know I'm very interested in the rate at which the installed base of featurephones (or baby smartphones as I call them - I think only anything of S30 level can be called a dumbphone! :) ) are replaced with smartphones.

So although I don't disagree with your stats of 2013 1 billion smartphones sold, and 2015 75% of new phones are smartphones, I would ask a couple of questions related to that:

1.) How much of those new smartphones sales are to existing owners of smartphones? A huge amount will be, a very high percentage I think, no? Because we know that people change or upgrade their phones periodically due to contracts and other reasons (what's the average - is it every 2 years?) and we also know they will not go from a smartphone to a featurephone (I assume!?).

2.) When you consider smartphones in 2015 for example, what do you consider the definition of smartphone to be, at least in terms of specific mobile OS being used, or features? The high end S40's are easily to all intents and purposes smartphones now. Do they get included in your figures, or where do you draw the dividing line? If one considers the upcoming S40-based 306 for example ( ), it is very hard to argue it is not fully a smartphone, as one could with current Ashas. In fact I'd make the argument the new ultra-low end Nokia 110, 111, 112 and 113 are smartphones. Baby smartphones, but fully smart nonetheless. They have full multimedia capabilities, apps, full web capability etc. And yet only a few tens of Euros each.
If we ignore all those, are you really saying in effect, in 2015 75% of all new phones will be (more or less) mostly Android and a bit iPhone?



thanks for sharing your post, i imagine in 2020 how many subscribers we will get?

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I would like to thank you for the efforts which you have made in writing this article. Nice to such useful and informative article.

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Can't wait to get a copy and have a read

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In fact I'd make the argument the new ultra-low end Nokia 110, 111, 112 and 113 are smartphones

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The iPhone 5 isn't flawless. The hardware is not really the problem, but a lack of OS improvements. The saying used to be Apple knew what we wanted before we did. The current truth is its customers are much more informed in regards to technology and the industry.

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I value the blog.Really thank you! Great.



That link you posted is more than a year old. The phone is known as Asha 306 nowadays. Its page on Wikipedia seems at the moment to be a venting ground of some unsatisfied Asha series customer (look at the reference section:


LOL, seems I didn't realize this article being over one year old.. Blindly following from the tweets by Tomi :)

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The other day, while I was at work, my cousin stole my apple ipad and tested to see if it can survive a 30 foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My apple ipad is now broken and she has 83 views. I know this is entirely off topic but I had to share it with someone!

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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