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« Video of my Keynote in New Zealand on Future of Telecoms | Main | Mobile Services Beyond Messaging? Excellent TNS Global Survey Reveals Tons »

May 03, 2012

Comments

ejvictor

@CN

We are all adults here... and Elops management team has NO credibility in providing forward looking guidance (ie, real numbers) so lets wait for Q2 numbers before we spout off " selling out". Wait maybe he means Lumia is selling out... it's customers by collapsing and not providing a forward migration path, will be crippled by Microsnot to appease carriers, etc?

ejvictor

Skype will make a boat load of $$$ for Microsnot. They are playing catch up to Apple and Google. Skype is the infrastructure for WP8 corporate video conferencing, Xbox for "smart TV" consumer conferencing and skype solves the Roaming dilemna for mobile users. On the corporate side Microsnot can esily show the ROI on VOIP, "Smart TV" ad supported business model, Mobile ad supported and it's the gateway drug to use on smart TV or office use. The fact that it is avaiable for iOSand Android is a problem for Apple and Googlesince it competes with their own products... and a basic problem for carriers since they no onger control what goes into app stores and what users install.

True Microsnot is using Nokia as cannon fodder for the fight... only Nokia users and investors will pay the price.

WonderPug

@CN: "Yes, you missed one thing. Nokia U.S. President says Lumia 900 selling out...“The demand for cyan [phones] is significantly outpacing supply."

The Cyan phone is in stock at Amazon and is currently ranked 17th in sales of subsidized phones. Perhaps this is a sign that Nokia's expectations for sales where astonishing low and that, after adding a tiny bit of supply, the phone is in-stock and is selling in vastly lower quantities than a Blackberry Curve (currently ranked 7th).

Tomi T Ahonen

To all in this thread

I finally had a moment to sit down and write the necessary update blog about the Skype 'controversy' - it is now up. We have the full transcript and link to the full video. I go through every word of what I attributed to Elop, even ran it through Google Translate and find my blog was totally accurate of what Elop said. Then I dig through what all we now learn about Elop, Lumia, Microsoft and Skype. Its spine-chilling stuff.. The Axis of Evil has been born in mobile. Go read how Elop is now threatening the carrier community and make your own judgements about can that ever work in a real world outside of Ballmer's twisted mind.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

So Vatar

My thoughts regarding the Skype thing:

I think buying Skype was a short term defensive move by Microsoft targeted specifically at the U.S. market.
Voice traffic moves away from landlines to cell service and Voip. Especially Google makes inroads with Google Voice, which can be an (almost) 100% replacement for landlines with vastly better functionality at no or marginal costs to the consumer. No, Google is nowhere near to replace land line carriers yet, however there might be an infliction point where consumers in even greater numbers cancel their landlines and rely on cellular and Voip only. While cellular is delivered by the same corporations that control the landlines, broadband connections are a little bit more competitive with cable providers like Comcast competing with the likes of AT&T.
Microsoft had no good offering to compete against Google Voice and Google Talk, which can be delivered easily via Android handsets using either cellular data or WiFi/Broadband. But with Skype they acquired services and a huge user base to be able to compete.

I doubt that MS realized the impact that a Skype purchase might have on their WP plans and in extension their WP hardware partner (Nokia). WP right now needs carrier support to stand a chance, but Skype is a threat to carrier's landline business and will be a threat to their cellular business. For damage control MS and Nokia are looking for ways to address this conflict with carriers, but as other posters point out there are no real good choices right now. The most likely is that carriers get a fee for allowing skype calls via their data networks.

Having a longer term view Skype might be an additional nail in the coffin of legacy carriers (including their cellular business) if traffic moves to IP based services and increased proliferation of WiFi and other broadband types. This is discussed a little in Tomi's latest blog entry and also in the comments (where - which is a first and has never happened before - Baron and I agreed to agree!!!). So in the long run positive for MS, if they play their cards right.

It is just not good in the short and medium term for WP and therefore Nokia.

cycnus

@So Vatar

Aren't you curios why baron if he's not at the Nokia Shareholder meeting could suddenly go aggressive and trying to plant the idea of skype is the future before Nokia/MyNokiaBlog/Tomi drama even start. He even suggesting what Elop said in the meeting.... "skype is come, take it or leave it, you'll be dumb pipe"

I was thinking that baron might be someone from Nokia/Microsoft, he might be elop or balmer.... LOL.

CN

@ejvictor

Apologies for my bad behaviour. Some say here that Finns have bad humour, but proving that wrong using only text as the method of communication doesn't work. Should have known that. ;-)

What made me respond to you was your statement "customers do not see the value of Lumia devices." That, in my opinion, is speculating with what might be true, or maybe then it isn't.

So, Sorry again, I promise to try to behave myself now.

I agree -. and as uou can see in my previous posts - let's wait for Q2 numbers, before calling the day.

@WonderPug

If you have followed Amazon, you must have seen how positions change rapidly. Every hour. So, I can't make any conclusions based on those lists and Tomi has commanded us not to refer to Amazon anyway - after which he does it himself, and still, at this very moment, has the errorneous statement on Amazon reducing the price of Lumia...

zlutor

@Baron: "You clearly do not understand the concept of net value" - if you say so. I'm not an expert in evaluating companies. I have no clue what Nokia, Navteq, NSN or even Siemens worth in real life - but you are clearly wrong when you evaluate NSN's value to zero.

See e.g. http://www.trefis.com/stock/nok/articles/60337/nokias-worth-9-given-new-guidance-12-if-turnaround-succeeds/2011-05-31. Maybe not reliable but...

"the cost to shut it down and fire the 40,000+ people that need to be fired" - man, I'm really happy you are not the CEO of this company... :-)
Do you really think after cutting 50%+ of its workforce any company will still be able to run its operation?

It is not a cable packing company, man, where people has to know that green cables to be paired with red ones and blue ones with the yellows. Have you checked how many people is working for Ericsson/Huawei? They are not just 'design company', you know... :-)

"In any event, the NSN joint venture does NOT own the IP" - are you really sure? What about IPRs filed after the merge? Are they 'given back' to Nokia or Siemens? I guess not... What about the portfolio acquired with Motorola Wireless? So, you are wrong, NSN has its own IP portfolio being _really_ valuable in its domain...

NSN produces huge amount of IPR 'day-by-day' because of - surprising you - people works hard there and are innovative (even outside Silicon Valley). See what awards they got in e.g. MWC, 2012. See the inventions in RAN, their position in LTE, etc. The company is improving its position. It is still 2nd/3rd biggest telco vendor - and you evaluate it to ZERO? Well, you know...

"My view, that the the IP portfolio is worth $4B and NSN is ZERO, or your view that NSN is worth a lot ($7B+) meaning the rest on Nokia is worth ZERO" - what if the reality is somewhere in between? Both of Nokia nd NSN has some value? ;-)

I have no clue what those portfolios worth nowadays. There are tons of essential patents owned by Nokia and by NSN as well...

What I was complaining to you is you seems to hate NSN with passion, value it to nothing and constantly pissing off its people. It think it is neither correct nor fair. That's it. Nothing more, nothing less...

Tomi T Ahonen

I'll try to fit in a few comments. You guys have such a long multi-thread discussion, in many cases it doesn't seem useful for me now to respond to the early stuff.

But on 4 May - zlutor - the N9 outsell Lumia stuff. That is now ending. I already projected near even sales for Q1 and am rather certain for Q2 Lumia is outselling N9. As Elop hasn't released N950 and isn't supporting N9 and in some markets they now are withdrawing the N9, that door is now closing. My gut says its related to Ollila departure, now that he's gone, Elop can do the last killings that he always wanted. So long MeeGo ! I hope to see your children thrive from Korea in the form of Tizen

4 May - NoName - haha, very good point about low morale and corresponding low productivity. There just was a survey released yesterday, the annual what is best company to work for, in Finland. Nokia had always ruled that list for the past decade. No more. In 2011 it fell from number 1. To where? Not 2, 3 or 4. Fell all the way to 5th..

4 May - CN - in Finland it is perfectly possible to have severely under-performing sales for a given Nokia device, and still be a bestseller. There is no competition. The launch peak of any new phone will be big, and then the few big tech and telcoms companies all get the latest Nokia for their staffs.. A totally meaningless market if you want to consider European or global sales. But as to a verified reseller boycott - of all places, in Finland, it is a very bad sign indeed that this happens even in Finland. You don't have to trust those sources, I have nothing better, I trust them. It is 100% consistent with the data I find elsewhere, but if some or many Finnish stores refuse to sell Lumia while having it displayed in the store - that is PROOF that there are problems in the reseller channel. That is regardless of whether it is a small country or large country. Then we need evidence from other countries to see if its a global pattern. And we have half a dozen countries verified it already. So there.

May 4 - Daniel - there was a question about N9 yes, and Elop's answer is somewhat explained on one of the blogs that I saw. I have a ton of relevant Nokia news to report, some from the Shareholders' Meeting, many from other news. But the N9 answer is very muddled and seems deliberately unclear by Elop, as if he's hiding something.

May 4 - voit - asked about can I tell when the day comes that Nokia can no longer be saved. I probably cannot tell close to the date, say within a week, but hopefully within a month. We are VERY rapidly approaching that point in time. A very huge part of the window of opportunity to save Nokia is the current handset environment for which the N9 and N950 are competitive. The moment Galaxy S3 and iPhone 5 hit the streets, the MeeGo side is ended. Not that they couldn't sell any, only that they would need significant upgrades to be competitive, takes time, and that Nokia doesn't have. Now the 808 Pureview news is similarly bad, like N9 originally, 808 won't be sold in all strong Nokia markets.. That hastens the end point.

Ok, will post these comments, will return later with more

Tomi Ahonen :-)

maxim

Good afternoon misters! I would like to tell that Stephen Elop should be DISMISSED URGENTLY WITH the SHAME FROM the POST of the PRESIDENT of the Nokia COMPANY! to choose on board of directors the new head of Nokia! not successful decisions connected with Windows phone 7 should be closed! As it is necessary to revive OS MeeGo! this platform can compete to iPhone!!!

Tomi T Ahonen

More replies around May 4 to selected comments only

Steve thanks, have updated it

Eurofan - I hear you and I really wish also that we could have full transcript of total meeting. But, I do sense Elop is a slippery fish who does few real slip-ups. It is his own career at stake, not just his strategy, he would be very difficult to pin down on anything. And he will have well-rehearsed responses to any tricky issues like Meego. Obviously he could have just given the number. And if its true, that Lumia outsells MeeGo, why would he not give the number, he has already given us the Lumia number. It would set the matter to a close. I think he therefore knows N9 sales were bigger than Lumia in the first two quarters and thus he had a deliberately muddled answer. But I obviously do not know...

Great insight on Elizabeth Nelson. So one more member to the Elop mafia.

Valdkr - haha, Vertu goes Android.. obviously. Good point!

Eurofan - thanks and we agree and thanks and now it seems Elop is on an assassination hunt to wipe out N9. Its already removed from some country sales. i think it was Ollila that kept N9 in play and Elop had been waiting to kill it off. Seems to be happening now. Sad. So so so sad. And did you see a few days ago Samsung released a prototype Tizen mock-up with very early beta Tizen software.. The Nokia that might have been. so so sad. (really loved the Microsoft mermaids, lovely metaphor haha)

CN - I reported what was in the news. A dozen major press reported the price was dropped. I don't now remember anymore where it was. I think the point is pretty well moot by now.

Perttu - thanks for the comment. Just so you know, the price differential is usually not 'real' under most cases (not with Lumia 900 because of the extra cash back due to the production problems). So Americans do pay about the same 550 Euros but they are forced to pay it as part of a 2 year contract. But it does seem unfair that they get the phones so cheaply. In reality they pay the same price as Finns do (plus/minus 10% with currency fluctuations etc)

Ritva - what a wonderfully silly comment, thanks. I'll let you remain here even though I know its total bullshit

Ok, now ending, will return with more soon

Tomi Ahonen :-)

MIKE

All of you must be Americans, who really know if AAPL fall from the trees, your country will continue to fall and lots of you will be unemployed...NOKIA WILL OVER COME ALL THE BULL CRAP..

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Jonathan

why did Nokia invest in another huge factory in Vietnam when their existing factories in China and India could very well cater for the low demand? Another wrong move by Elop?

Greg@Travel Finland

Thanks Tomi for posting

Firstly all investors should remember that we freely boughjt stocks in Nokia
The Finnish Government has said they will not help or get involved
ASo that leaves management and feelings to spur the giant on.
Microsoft have been looking at the books of Nokia and Sansung were thought to be interested..However Samsung are committed to their android platyform
So Samsung do not wish to fo back to Symbian
That leaes Microsoft!
The Nokia Lumia is promoted,at least to me 3 months ago in Gigantti,Helsinki
Though I believe it was a catastrophic mistake to go the windows platform and not attempt to go android,Microsoft may well be the"Night on the White Horse"
I have used Nokia phones for 25 years and I am not eready to give them up

This lawsuit is equal to squabbling in the ranks.Now stock holders should add pressure to remove the bad CEO
Nokia can and will be great again,with a new more focused direction

fred

Elop has stabbed Nokia repeatedly killing off anything and everything that is or might be profitable. Nokia is now gasping its last while the shareholders stand around like startled and inactive sheep waiting for the slaughter to be over.
How the hell you can turn a massively profitable company into a basket case and be allowed to keep your job I fail to understand.
How you can do it without the personal belief in your actions to buy the shares no one else wants with the massive salary and enormous bonuses the shareholders are allowing you to take for this catastrophic failure I don't know.
Why Elop won't do the only sensible thing and leave is beyond me.

The company he joined was massive, a little slow, needed some serious remodeling in its marketing department and a genuine change in the way it managed projects. What it didn't need was some idiot killing off its profitable S60 business with a stupid statement - the phones were not being sold but were still accounting for a growing number of phone shipments even if a lower market share. The old S40 phones were still selling as good quality devices to people who wanted to make phone calls and now they are poor quality Chinese junk. The possibilities for a new phone have recently been killed dead. Putting all your eggs in your neighbours basket might be a good idea if your neighbour is not punch drunk, hamfisted and known to be careless.

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