Smartphone Market Shares after Q1 - Its the Digital Jamboree year of Smartphone Bloodbath

Yes, its now Year 3 (Digital Jamboree) of the Smartphone Bloodbath. We have Q1 results, now that each of the four major analyst houses has given their final count of how many smartphones were sold or shipped in the quarter. I report on this blog the overall market share pictures as the most thorough review of the biggest smartphone makers by every measure you could hope for. Here is my review of Q4 and the full year 2011.

The four big analyst houses (Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analytics and Canalys) were remarkably unanimous this time, just over 1.5 million units separated the highest and lowest, so this is as close to a consensus number as the industry tends to see. For Q1 the smartphone industry therefore sold 145.2 million smartphones, down 6% from Q4 of 2011. Note, that I had projected a growth from Christmas season Q4 into the Q1 period with Chinese New Year gift-giving, and even as China had a very strong year in smartphones, the rest of the world seemed to have an exceptional peak in Q4 (at that time sales jumped 30% from Q3) so we did see what could be called a 'correction' for Q1. But yes, 145.2 million is our number.

FIRST THE THREE BIG MARKET SHARE TABLES

Lets see how the smarpthone makers and the operating systems fared in the latest quarter. I will discuss, as usual, each rival and what is happening to their world domination plans in this blog later, and I will add some goodie stats you won't see elsewhere, but lets do the big tables first.

TEN BIGGEST SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS BY UNIT SALES IN Q1 2012

Rank . Maker . . . . . . Units . . . Market Share . . . . Was in Q4 of 2011
1 . . . . Samsung  . . . 44.5 M . . 30.6 % . . . . . . . . ( 22.8 %)
2 . . . . Apple . . . . . . 35.1 M . . 24.2 % . . . . . . . . ( 23.9 %)
3 . . . . Nokia . . . . . . 11.9 M . . . 8.2 % . . . . . . . . ( 12.6 %)
4 . . . . RIM . . . . . . .  11.1 M . . . 7.6 % . . . . . . . . (   9.1 %)
5 . . . . HTC . . . . . . . . 7.9 M . . . 5.4 % . . . . . . . . (   6.1 %)
6 . . . . Sony . . . . . . .  7.3 M . . . 5.0 % . . . . . . . . (  5.8 %)
7 . . . . Huawei  . . . . .  7.0 M . . . 4.8 % . . . . . . . . (  4.8 %)
8 . . . . LG . . . . . . . . . 5.5 M . . . 3.8 % . . . . . . . . (  4.5 %)
9 . . . . Motorola . . . . . 5.1 M . . . 3.5 % . . . . . . . . (  3.4 %)
10 . . . ZTE . . . . . . . .  5.0 M . . . 3.4 % . . . . . . . . (  3.5 %)
Others . . . . . . . . . . .  4.8 M . . . 3.3 % . . . . . . . .  (  3.5 %)
TOTAL  . . . . . . . . . 145.2 M
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates May 16, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

Samsung and Apple account now for more than half of all smartphones sold. Then after those two, its pretty much misery down the line from currently 3rd ranked Nokia down through RIM through HTC through Sony, LG, etc. The Chinese Huawei and ZTE are roughly holding station as is Motorola. This industry seems to be one where only Samsung and Apple have figured out how to be a success. Strange, considering how globally competitive this industry is accross so many major tech brands.

Then lets look at the market shares for the major operating systems for smartphones. Here, as usual, the numbers are not that clear and take some manipulation to force into the same total but we do have the finals that are consistent with the above, and other reported data as best as possible:

BIGGEST SMARTPHONE OPERATING SYSTEMS BY UNIT SALES IN Q1 2012

Rank . OS Platform . . . . . . Units . . . . . Market share  . . Was in Q4 of 2011
1 . . . . Android . . . . . . . . . 80.8 M . . . . 55.6 % . . . . . . . ( 49.0 %)
2 . . . . iOS . . . . . . . . . . . . 35.1 M . . . . 24.2 % . . . . . . . ( 23.9 %)
3 . . . . Blackberry . . . . . . . 11.1 M . . . . . 7.6 % . . . . . . . (  9.1 %)
4 . . . . Symbian . . . . . . . . . 7.9 M . . . . . 5.4 % . . . . . . . ( 11.5 %) 
5 . . . . bada . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 M . . . . . 2.6 % . . . . . . . (   2.3 %)
6 . . . . Windows Phone . . . . 2.3 M . . . . . 1.6 % . . . . . . . (   1.2 %)
7 . . . . MeeGo . . . . . . . . . .  2.2 M . . . . . 1.5 % . . . . . . . (   1.2 %)
8 . . . . Windows Mobile . . . . 0.4 M . . . . . 0.3 % . . . . . . . (   0.4 %)
others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  1.6 M . . . . . 1.1 % . . . . . . . (   1.6 %)
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145.2 M
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates May 16, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

Android has now passed the 50% level and more than half of all smartphones sold globally run on Android. And an astonishing nearly 4 out of 5 smartphones sold run either Android or iOS (79.8% of all new smartphones sold). Symbian has tumbled further now falling from 3rd to fourth. Samsung's bada keeps shining as the strongest of the new platforms, as we await the launch of the first Tizen smartphones later this year. Microsoft's all Windows Phone makers, Nokia, Samsung, HTC, LG etc combined, barely outsold the one MeeGo handset sold by Nokia, the N9. And as many still give the 'Microsoft OS' market share combining Windows Phone and its incompatible older sibling, Windows Mobile - this to me is misleading and distorts the Microsoft picture, I still report the split between the two, so I'll keep the Windows Mobile stat out here for now as it slowly slips into oblivion.

I also published last time the installed base data and have updated that, so here is the latest installed base market shares globally. We have now actually passed the 1 Billion smartphones in use level, hitting 1,013 million or 1.0 Billion smarpthones in use. Lets see how they are split by operating systems:

INSTALLED BASE OF SMARTPHONES BY OPERATING SYSTEM AS OF Q1 2012

Rank . OS Platform . . . . . . Units . . . . . Market share  . . Was in Q4 of 2011
1 . . . . Android . . . . . . . . . 328 M . . . . . 32 % . . . . . . . . ( 27 %)
2 . . . . Symbian . . . . . . . . 299 M . . . . . 30 % . . . . . . . . ( 35 %)
3 . . . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . . . 178 M . . . . . 18 % . . . . . . . . ( 16 %)
4 . . . . Blackberry  . . . . . . 111 M . . . . . 11 % . . . . . . . . ( 12 %)
5 . . . . bada . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 M . . . . .  2 % . . . . . . . . (   1 %)
6 . . . . Windows Mobile . . . . 16 M  . . . .  2 % . . . . . . . . (   2 %)
7 . . . . Windows Phone . . . .   9 M . . . . . 1 % . . . . . . . . (   1 %)
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 M . . . . .  5 % . . . . . . . . (   6 %)
TOTAL Installed Base . . . 1,013 M smartphones in use at end of Q1 2012
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates May 16, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

Obviously Symbian is continuing to crash very hard after last year's Elop Effect. For every gain of Windows Phone unit installed base since Nokia was announced in February 2011, Microsoft Windows Phone has picked up 6.1 Million additional Windows Phone handsets, while Nokia Symbian and Microsoft Windows Mobile have given up in the same period 70 million smartphone customers. I think its a safe bet that this is the most costly customer migration attempt ever, if for ever 11 customers you try to shift to Windows Phone, you lose 10 of those to your competitors. The folks over at Samsung and Apple are mightly happy for those mostly ex Nokia customers they have picked up in the past year.

Thats the big picture. I think the ironically named 'so-called 3rd ecosystem' ie Windows Phone has not yet passed 10 million total installed base, and lingers at 1% even after massive global push by Microsoft and Nokia. Samsung's bada which launched at the same time as Windows Phone, has sold nearly twice as many. Nokia's own MeeGo outsold its Nokia branded Windows Phone smarpthones in its first two quarters that were the same two quarters that Nokia sold its Lumia series on Windows Phone, although that is likely now to end by Q2 as Nokia is now ramping down some of its N9 sales.

INDIVIDUAL MANUFACTURERS BY BRAND

As always, I'll rank the top smartphone makers by their latest quarter performance and give a US school system grade from A being perfect to F being failing, with some commentary of what happened in the Quarter and perhaps some observations of what is going on right now. And we rank these manufacturers and later the operating systems by biggest to smallest.

SAMSUNG - 44.5M smartphones, 30.6% market share, profitable - A+
Last 6 Quarters Market Share: 11% - 13% - 16% - 21% - 23% - 31%

Samsung is on top of its game right now, doing everything perfectly. They took Nokia's 14 year crown as the world's largest handset maker also this Q1 and in smarpthones, they leapfrogged Apple and retook the biggest smartphone maker title that Samsung briefly also held in Q3 of 2011. Now the lead to Apple is so huge, its likely to hold all through the year 2012. The jump in market share from 22.8% in Q4 to 30.6% now was accomplished without a brand new superphone, while Q4 was Apple's first full quarter of selling the iPhone 4S, making this Samsung achievement even more remarkable. Now we have seen the new Galaxy S3 launched and its likely to propel Sammy's top end sales even further. It also keeps pushing solid sales throughout the range including low-end bada smartphones which accounted for 9% of all Samsung branded smartphone sales in Q1. A particularly strong markets for Samsung was China wher it replaced Nokia as the bestselling smartphone maker. China is, as regular readers of this blog know, the world's largest smartphone market now, having passed the USA for that honor. Here is how I split the Samsung smartphones by the operating systems

SAMSUNG SPLIT BY OS IN Q1
Android . . . . . . . . . 90%
bada . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Windows Phone . . . . 1%
Total Samsung . . . . 44.5 M 
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates May 16, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed 

Sammy also reported excellent profits in its handset unit, so this is all peachy. And we have seen the first developer prototype versions of Tizen, the next generation OS that Samsung is now developing with Intel, that Nokia pulled out of its Intel partnership on the MeeGo platform. Tizen is a kind of evolution beyond MeeGo and includes both Linux and HTML5 based elements. We should see first Tizen smartphones coming late in the year, and if Nokia's sexy N9 was any sign of how good a new OS can be, the Tizen smartphones could be something remarkable. But we have to wait and see. In the meanwhile, Samsung hitting on all cylinders, a clear A+ by far the best performance in smartphones this Quarter.

APPLE - 35.1 Million smartphones, 24.2% market share, profitable - B+
Last 6 Quarters Market Share: 16% - 18% - 19% - 14% - 24% - 24%

Apple had a great quarter again. It did see a sequential decline in smartphone sales (compared to Samsung that managed growth from Q4) but as Apple still managed a modest gain in market share, that was still good performance. In other words, Apple declined less than the industry did, so compared to most rivals like HTC, RIM, Nokia, LG, Sony etc Apple did better. But it did not grow unit sales, hence it was not quite the perfect quarter. Apple lost its title as world's largest smartphone maker for the quarter, and unless something really drastic happens, its unlikely Apple can retake that leadership position in any single quarter anymore, and thus Samsung will likely pass Apple this year as the biggest smartphone maker for the full year.

Still, its early going, we have to see how great the next iPhone model will be. And like I have been saying, if Apple were to split its new product launches to two per year, not just one, and introduce a lower-cost 'Nano' version of the iPhone - that could jump Apple sales significantly back into the scale of what Samsung is doing now. Still, Apple sells nearly one in four of every smartphone sold on the planet - this is far more than I ever predicted Apple could achieve and by some measures Apple is rated the third largest handset maker too (my stats say Apple is ranked 4th, behind Chinese ZTE, but who cares, third or fourth biggest, Apple has passed past masters such as Motorola and LG in making mass market dumbphones). 

And Apple did it making only premium-priced iPhone smartphones. Very good performance indeed. And by those who measure revenues and profits, obviously Apple takes the lion's share of all profits generated by the handset industry (only I won't bother discussing those issues here, this is not a blog about stock prices or wall street evaluations. As long as a company is profitable, it is viable as a long-term competitor, and beyond that, how big the profits are, is not of concern to this blog. We look at the installed base and platforms, focusing on the developers in this industry). Apple slighly fell unit sales but still picked up some market share, and doing all this very profitably, Apple earns a B+ for Q1 of 2012 in the Digital Jamboree.

NOKIA - 11.9 Million smartphones, 8.2% market share, loss-making - F
Last 6 Quarters Market Share: 29% - 24% - 16% - 14% - 13% - 8%

Nokia is dying before our eyes. One year ago at this time, Nokia was still the world's largest smartphone maker and highly profitable. Just before the Elop Effect ie 15 months ago the last quarter for which we had the data, Nokia was literally bigger than Apple and Samsung combined, with a massive 29% market share, growing unit sales, growing revenues, growing average prices and massively growing profits, under its new leadership of Stephen Elop. Since then we had the Elop Effect and even Stephen Elop admitted to the Nokia Shareholders' Meeting now two weeks ago, that yes, his Burning Platforms memo did hurt Symbian sales. How badly? Symbian sold 35% of all smartphones sold in the world in the last quarter before his moronic memo. Today? Symbian sells 5.4% of all smartphones in the world! The Burning Platforms memo did a lot of damage, some of the most obvious, was to scare away Nokia Symbian partners such as NTT DoCoMo, Fujitsu, Sharp and Panasonic etc, helping collapse Symbian sales. They all have since shifted to Android of course, no doubt the Google management team send nice bottles of Champagne to Elop's disgruntled execs to cheer them up.

From 35% to 5.4% in 15 months? When calculated as a percentage loss, that is a collapse of 85% of your customer base in just over one year. Was that recovered to Nokia's Windows Phone platform? No. Nokia's total Windows Phone sales on the Lumia brand in Q1 was 2.0 million units which had 1.5% market share. So Nokia trades 29.6% Symbian market share loss for 1.5% of Windows Phone market share gain, under Elop? This is a world record in management failure. In fact, while Elop has refused to support his hot new OS and handsets, still in Q1, the orphaned Nokia N9 on the MeeGo platform outsold all Nokia Lumia handsets, yes 2.2 million to 2.0 million. And even as the N9 wins global recognition like the industrial design oscars, the D&AD awards beating out not just Lumia smartphones but even the iPad 2, what does Elop do with the N9? He still refuses to sell it in most market and is discontinuing it now in some, like in Finland and Sweden. But at least there are some tiny breakthroughs. We hear that the N9 will after all, be quietly sold in the USA, at last. Six months too late, and without a carrier subsidy deal, but still.

So one year ago Nokia was as big as Samsung and Apple combined. Now Nokia is only one third the size of Apple and yes, one quarter the size of Samsung in smartphones! A total comprehensive collapse. Nokia's own market share excluding other Symbian partners was 29% before the Elop Effect - and remember, Nokia was growing sales, not declining at the time - which then fell to 24%, 16%, 14%, 13% and now is at 8%. I was the most accurate forecaster to predict those levels - some crazy 'experts' actually promised over 20% market shares for Nokia and to be as high as 28%. Now the collapse continues. Nokia has already warned that Q2 will be worse than Q1. We see latest market share data from such early indicators as ComScore and Kantar Worldpanel and several local stats from China to India to the Middle East and find that Nokia continues to crash. I project Nokia total smartphone market share ends at 3% for the end of this year, and if Nokia continues on the suicidal Windows Phone strategy, it will hit 1% by summer of 2013 as Microsoft shifts to Windows 8, that will be comprehensively rejected by the carrier community, as I have explained on this blog, and something, again, that CEO Stephen Elop admitted to the Nokia Shareholders' Meeting two weeks ago (answering 'of course' to a question asking if it was true that Nokia carrier/operator distributors were reluctant to sell Nokia Lumia not because it has Skype - it does not (yet) - but because Skype is owned by Microsoft). So currently Nokia's Symbian/MeeGo/Windows Phone split is like this:


NOKIA SMARTPHONE SPLIT BY OS IN Q1
 - 65% of Nokia branded smartphones still are sold running Symbian.
 - 18% are running MeeGo and
 - 17% are running Windows Phone.
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates May 16, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

We have now heard that yes, it was the carriers who insisted on prolonging Symbian sales - and like I said, they would go through Nokia's Board to force Elop's hand - as reported by Lucian Armasu at the Android Authority - yes, carriers are now restless about Windows Phone and want Nokia to offer alternatives, both MeeGo and Symbian Belle, such as the highly praised 808 Pureview cameraphone. Reversing yet again another Elop idiotic edict, from last year when he suddenly said Nokia would no more sell Symbian in the USA, now they are bringing the 808 Pureview to the US market as well. 

Meanwhile we hear of the 101 faults with Windows Phone, and that resellers are refusing to sell it, and the Lumia owners are generating Nokia-record level returns being extremely dissatisfied with the devices. One of Nokia's branded store chains is abandoning the Nokia brand altogether while Nokia slashes Lumia prices globally to try to pump up some sales.

I could go on and on about Nokia, pay attention to this time, we are witnessing a world record in management failure, of any industry ever. Nokia has collapsed and is making so severe losses, it will be gone before you know it. At least gone as the company we once knew. What becomes of Nokia? My guess is that Microsoft will buy it or pump billions into it to keep it afloat, just so Microsoft can prolong the inevitable decline of the Windows mobile strategy - which just five years ago held 12% global market share in smartphones. Now Windows Phone has.. 1.6%. Even Windows Mobile was able to do better than that, Microsoft's previous OS had 5% before Windows Phone launched, in 2010... Anyway, keep an eye on Nokia. This is a sad tale that will be repeated ad nauseum in business legends, the most incompetent executive of any industry ever, who swapped 29% dominating market position making huge profits and growing strongly, for the 8% Nokia has now, and 3% by end of year, making ever bigger losses in its smartphone unit...  Nokia is on a Certain Road to Death. How to grade Nokia? The market fell 6% from Q4. Nokia fell .. 39% in just three months! This is the biggest fall I've ever seen in any one Quarter. Yes. Last year 2011 Stephen Elop traded growing Nokia smartphone sales for the biggest collapse ever seen in this industry in a period of one year. Now he is not satisfied with that world record, he now adds to it, by producing the worst quarter ever witnessed in smartphones in any 3 month period. Is he done? Nokia's profit warning and all signs suggest Nokia's Q2 will be even worse.. Sorry. What was the score? Fell unit sales, fell market share, made even bigger losses. Unfortunately I can't give a score worse than an F, but I'd like to give an F- (F-Minus) or actually an F - - - - - (F Minus, Minus, Minus, Minus)

RIM - 11.1 Million smartphones, 7.6% market share, loss-making - D-
Last 6 Quarters Market Share: 14% - 14% - 12% - 9% - 9% - 8%

The Blackberry maker is seeing a see-saw period, it is up slighly in some quarters like it was in Q1 and Q4 of last year, but then its down again, like it was in Q2 and Q3 of last year, and once again now, in Q1 of this year. Blackberries do sell but in ever weaker numbers. Its market share has tumbled almost in linear fashion from its peak in Q3 of 2009 when RIM had 21% of the global market share to the 15% it had a year later and 9% it had by Q3 of 2011. Now today Blackberries only account for 7.6% of all smartphones sold globally. In unit terms, actually RIM has had modest growth over the period, but the global smartphone market has exploded and Blackberry has not been able to capitalize on that massive opportunity. RIM has stayed stagnant. Hence its market share is now in single digits and headed to oblivion. I could argue there is some silver lining if there was profits being made, but RIM lost all that too and now generates a loss. So yes, there is yet another 'saviour of the year' coming from RIM, this time it is the Blackberry 10 operating system, but will it come in time and is it good enough. I have severe doubts. Currently, RIM's performance of declining sales, declining market share and loss-making gives it a D-. The only reason I cannot give RIM an F, is that I am grading on a curve. To rate RIM's pitiful performance as bad a Nokia's would be far too kind to the horrid world-record failure Quarter that Nokia has just reported. So RIM gets a D-

HTC - 7.9 Million smartphones, 5.4% market share, profitable - C
Last 6 Quarters Market Share: 9% - 10% - 11% - 10% - 6% - 5%

HTC is providing a large volume of well-received Android smartphones (the second biggest Android provider behind Samsung) and also sells Windows Phone based smartphones but is not able to capture the success that Samsung has been able to on mostly the same platforms. HTC has actually a longer history on both platforms so it should technically know them better than Samsung does.. But yes, HTC which had reported essentially an unbroken streak of sequential growth in smartphone unit sales up to Q3 of last year, suddenly turned into declines and now we see the second consecutive drop in sales, falling 17% from the Christmas Quarter to Q1, and 7.9 million smartphones sold. HTC's market share is down to 5.4%, a level it has not seen since mid 2009. HTC is still profitable, so this is not all bad but HTC has to recover and find its winning ways again. I grade the HTC performance in Q1 as a C

SONY - 7.3 Million smartphones, 5.0% market share, loss-making - D
Last 6 Quarters Market Share: 5% - 5% - 5% - 6% - 6% - 5%

Sony got rid of its partner, Ericsson and now goes it alone in smartphones. This is a genuine transition stage and Sony can be forgiven for stumbling somewhat in the transition. But it did see sales tumble a lot from 9 million smartphones and 6% market share to 7.3 million and 5%. This, while the company slipped into loss-making again. Sony is likely to be the first of the legacy handset makers to complete the migration from dumbphones to smartphones, and is past 90% migration rate already. That is good, but Sony has to restore its profitability and then stabilize the downward sales trend and become a viable global competitor again. I grade Sony at a D.

HUAWEI - 7.0 Million smartphones, 4.8% market share, profitable - B
Last 6 Quarters Market Share: 3% - 3% - 4% - 5% - 5% - 5%

Huawei does not report quarterly numbers like most Western companies, it reports annual numbers and then gives occasional tidbits of data. But Huawei is growing strongly and capitalizing on the lower-end market opportunities in the industry, in China and in many parts of the Emerging World economies. My 7.0 Million number is a projection as its Huawei's market share but consistent with recent Huawei performance and also consistent with the overall industry totals. It might be off a couple of hundred thousand one way or another but currently its unlikely Huawei had passed Sony yet, and it is far bigger than the next in line, LG. Note, Huawei has also passed the half-point where more of its phones sold are now smartphones than dumbphones. I grade Huawei's steady sales performance and profitable business as a B.

LG - 5.5 Million smartphone sales, 3.8% market share, profitable - C+
Last 6 Quarters Market Share: 5% - 5% - 5% - 5% - 5% - 4% 

LG seems now to have turned a corner. Like just about anyone before it, when a handset maker jumps into bed with Microsoft, it usually goes from highly profitable to higly loss-making (and many have gone bankrupt in that process, bled dry by the Evil Empire). Now LG has stated its not bothering with Windows Phone, it will focus its smartphones on Android. LG is still well behind the rivals in migrating its handset unit from dumbphones to smartphones (only a third LG branded phones sold are smartphones currently). But as LG has returned to profit-making, now the company is healthy once again, and can pursue now better growth and success in this industry. I grade the LG Quarter with a C+

MOTOROLA - 5.1 Million smarpthones sold, 3.5% market share, profitable - B-
Last 6 Quarters Market Share: 5% - 4% - 4% - 4% - 3% - 4%

Motorola is also on the mend, under Google's leadership. They have stabilized the boat, are no longer generating huge losses, and the damage to smartphone unit sales has also stalled. They kept pace with the industry so unit sales fell slightly, but Motorola held market share and thus earns a B-

ZTE - 5.0 Million smartphones, 3.4% market share, B
Last 6 Quarters Market Share: 2% - 2% - 3% - 3% - 4% - 3%

Another Chinese brand showing steady pace, ZTE does solid quarters, nice sales, roughly on par with industry and holding its market share. They are profitable so I grade ZTE at a B.

OPERATING SYSTEMS GRADED

Thats our Top 10 biggest smartphone manufacturers right there. Now lets turn to look at the operating system providers in the same way, from largest to smallest OS:

ANDROID - 80.8 Million smartphones, 55.6% market share, A
Last 6 Quarters Market Share: 24% - 32% - 40% - 47% - 49% - 56%

Google's Android is now the dominating platform, selling literally more smarpthones than all other smartphone operating system makers, combined. Android has now in Q1 passed the 50% milestone and powers almost 56 out of every 100 smartphones globally. While the industry shrunk 6% in the past 3 months, Android grew 6%, efffectively doing 12% better growth than the industry. Note also, that for the first time ever, Android is now more than twice as big as its nearest rival, iOS. A very VERY strong performance by the market leader, when everybody else targets you. Android is of course thriving in part due to the success of Samsung, its top dog. I will offer the Android market share split also later in this blog posting (see at the bottom of this blog article for split of Android makers) But yes, I grade Android in the Digital Jamboree with a solid A.

iOS - 35.1 Million smartphones, 24.2 market share, B+
Last 6 Quarters Market Share: 16% - 18% - 19% - 14% - 24% - 24%

Apple's iOS had a good quarter but didn't keep pace with Android growth. Apple's iOS actually slightly lost sales from Q4 but less than the industry declined, so iOS did pick up a bit of market share. Note, like all OS platforms, I only count the smartphone part of the OS, so I don't include tablets and other devices, not for iOS, not for Blackberry, or Android, or Windows etc...So specifically with iOS, the full addressable ecosystem is significantly bigger with the other iOS powered devices, but in smartphones, Apple's iPhone operating system holds strong second place selling almost a quarter of smartphones worldwide. I grade Apple in operating systems at a B+

BLACKBERRY - 11.1 Million smartphones, 7.6% market share, C
Last 6 Quarters Market Share: 14% - 14% - 12% - 9% - 9% - 8%

The RIM owned Blackberry OS was once considered by Nokia to replace its Symbian (RIM said they weren't interested) and about a year later, last summer, it emerged that Nokia and Microsoft had then considered buying troubled RIM. There is always interest about the Canadian Blackberry maker. Now it is in the news, having retaken third ranking in smartphone OS new sales, as Symbian falls below Blackberry. This is quite telling, that the third-bestselling smartphone OS platform globally, has only under 8% market share. Yes, its a difficult place, the Digital Jamboree. I grade Blackberry OS with a C.

SYMBIAN - 7.9 Million smartphones, 5.4% market share, F
Last 6 Quarters Market Share: 35% - 26% - 17% - 15% - 11% - 5%

The Symbian market share is in free-fall, ever since the Elop Effect. I am not going to suggest Symbian was fully competitive and modern, but if you look at for example the 101 faults of the Windows Phone OS platform, and recall that Symbian does most of those things natively and has done for years already, it does remind you that there are more than one type of human and smartphones are used for very varying needs, not just touch-screen web surfing on ultra-slick iPhones. Symbian used to sell 77% of China, over 60% of India and over 80% of African smartphones. And the phone of the event award at the world's biggest telecoms event held in Barcelona two months ago, awarded the Nokia 808 Pureview as the best phone of the event. Powered by.. Symbian, yes. Even now there is life in that old dog, abilities that Nokia and Microsoft both say, they cannot do on Windows Phone today, what is standard on that 808 Pureview. Symbian could have had a gentle controlled ramp-down, powering millions of smartphones sold in China, India, Africa, etc - where Nokia's Ovi Store and Symbian based apps exist in local languages and supported by carrier-billing. Now all that is collapsing thanks to Elop Effect. Like I said, Nokia CEO Stephen Elop himself admits, he did cause Symbian sales losses with his moronic Burning Platforms memo, the costliest management memo of all time. Symbian had 35% just over a year ago. It is now down to 5.4%. Never in the history of technology, has there been a 'platform' in any industry, not in video recorders, not in personal computers, not in gaming consoles, not in smartphones, or anything else. Never has there been any platform that was the market leader, to see it lose 85% of its customers in just 15 months. We have witnessed a world record in destruction of a market leader. Assassinated by CEO Stephen Elop - he now even admits to this murder, when talking to Nokia shareholders. If you were bigger than all your rivals, and then destroy that market to go from 35% to 5% in 15 months, that is pathetic. To call this the world record in management failure is to understate how big the damage has been.

If Nokia had somehow been able to exchange 1 for 1 the existing Symbian market share for Windows Phone (and/or MeeGo) market share, then yes, it would make sense. But no. Nokia and Microsoft, separately had 38% market share before the Elop Effect. They now have a combined 7% for Symbian and Windows Phone combined. (And they are headed to 3% by year-end) This totally validates that joke, that two turkeys do not make an eagle. This is total abjunct failure. Yes. Nokia rates an F for Symbian in the past quarter.

BADA - 3.8 Million sales, 2.6% market share, B+
Last 6 Quarters Market Share: 1% - 1% - 2% - 2% - 2% - 3%

Samsung's bada stays mostly below the radar, doesn't make much noise, but keeps increasing sales steadily. They now sell nearly 4 million smartphones per quarter and have amassed an installed base of nearly 17 million smartphones in use. As Samsung has done this as a side-line project, while their flagship has been on Android, and with Samsung also offering Windows Phone devices, it is quite remarkable. What is extraordinary, is that Microsoft's Windows Phone launched at the same time, with half a dozen manufacturers, now adding Nokia even, and powered by the biggest marketing push of any OS ever, Microsoft's Windows Phone still only sells about half the level of bada. Astonishing. And good job Samsung. Now lets see how this knowhow and ecosystem transfers to the Tizen OS that is coming later this year. I grade bada a steady good B+

WINDOWS PHONE - 2.3 Million sales, 1.6% market share, C 
Last 6 Quarters Market Share: 2% - 1% - 1% - 1% - 1% - 2%

Microsoft is still ashamed to break out the split of Windows Mobile vs Windows Phone, which tells us they are still unhappy with the level of Windows Phone sales and try to spin the story talking of all Windows smartphone sales instead. But we do have some insights into some markets and can calculate out roughly the Windows Mobile sales. So I get total Windows Phone sales at 2.3 Million, of which 2.0 Million were Nokia Lumia sales and 300,000 were all other Windows Phone sales by Samsung, HTC and others. I also counted 400,000 Windows Mobile sales so if you see a number of roughly 3 Million Windows OS smartphones and roughly 2% market share, that is consistent with these numbers but it includes that market spin by Microsoft to try to count Windows Mobile sales into the Windows Phone numbers. As we know, Windows Mobile is not compatible with Windows Phone, so that is an artificial number. Oh, and the rumor mill is busily demanding Microsoft (and Nokia) to commit to whether current Windows Phone based smartphones, especially the new Lumia phones by Nokia, are able to be upgraded to Windows 8 OS. As Microsoft is reluctant to confirm this (as is Nokia), I think the safe bet is that they current smartphones are not going to be able to be upgraded. Its yet another gripe to add to the long list if 101 faults in the Windows Phone platform. But lets be fair, Windows Phone had seen declining sales for almost every quarter since launch, that was finally reversed now in Q1 with Nokia Lumia sales appearing in some numbers. So Windows Phone is growing now (from a very miniscule base level) and that is something. (See below for full split of Windows Phone manufacturer shares). Even as that sales growth is achieved by essentially bribing sales staff, and showering buyers with Xbox 360 videogaming boxes and super quality stereo headsets, etc, as well as severe price cuts throughout the Lumia range, there is clear measurable growth in Windows Phone, finally, 18 months after launch. So I grade Windows Phone at a C

MEEGO - 2.2 Million smartphone sales, 1.5% market share B+
Last 2 Quarters Market Share: 1% - 2%

Nokia's orphaned MeeGo OS is shining where nobody pays any attention. The N9 won the industry award for best design in the UK by the D&AD awards (kind of 'Oscars' for designers) beating the Lumia 800 and the iPad 2 - but the N9 is not even sold in the UK. The German newsmagazine Der Stern loved the N9 so much, it urged German buyers to travel to other countries to buy it, but Nokia refuses to release the N9 in Germany. This is the phone that could have saved Nokia, and MeeGo the OS has, sadly, even another smartphone not as a prototype, but being currently manufactured by Nokia in small numbers, called the N950 (its like a QWERTY slider variant to the N9). And Elop refuses to let that be sold anywhere. While carriers globally hate the Windows Phone based Lumia - and customers return it at record rates - and yes, it has those famous 101 failures - and Nokia's CEO himself admits carriers are not selling Lumia because Nokia's partner Microsoft now owns Skype, something the carriers fear as an existential threat to their business. This is not something I claim - it has now been verified by Nokia CEO that yes, 'of course' it is true that some operators are not selling Lumia because Microsoft owns Skype. While Nokia forces undesirable Lumia smartphones down the operators' throats, there looms the saviour in the wings, the N9 and N950, running MeeGo, that could have been the Razr for Nokia. Motorola recovered from 14% market share to 25% in fifteen months powered by the Razr. Nokia could have seen the same with the N9, as the N9 and MeeGo have had the strongest positive reviews of any Nokia phone ever released. But Elop refuses to sell the N9 in many of Nokia's best markets like the UK and Germany; and refuses to sell the N950 anywhere. Even so, in the obscure markets where the N9 is available, globally both in Q4 and now in Q1, the one N9 smartphone running MeeGo outsold all Lumia based Windows Phones made by Nokia. No wonder Elop refuses to reveal the N9 numbers, even when asked about it point-blank. At least there is some good news, that the N9 is now (quietly) being released to the US market. Lets cheer for small gains. But yes, how is the orphaned MeeGo doing, in its last moments? It bravely still outsells the total Lumia line by my analysis, and for that alone, MeeGo earns a B+

WINDOWS MOBILE - 400,000 smartphones, 0.3% market share - D
Last 6 Quarters Market Share: 3% - 2% - 1% - 1% - 0% - 0%

Windows Mobile refuses to die. It is dwindling before our eyes, but still small numbers do sell. It will soon be gone.

SOME MORE STATS FOR THE SEVERE PROPELLERHEADS

Thats the review of the big smartphone manufacturers and operating systems. I will add a few specific data items here to the end, lets do the Android and Windows Phone splits:

ANDROID MAKERS IN Q1
Samsung  . . . . . . 50%
HTC . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Sony . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Huawei  . . . . . . . . 9%
LG . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Motorola . . . . . . . . 6%
ZTE . . . . . . . . . . .  6%
Others . . . . . . . . .  3%
Total Android . . . . 80.8 Million
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates May 16, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

WINDOWS PHONE MAKERS IN Q1
Nokia  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87%
Samsung . . . . . . . . . . . .  9%
HTC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Total Windows Phone . . 2.3 Million
(Note above does not include 400,000 Windows Mobile smartphones sold in Q1)
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates May 16, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

One Plug - if you are interested in the handset industry stats more deeply than this blog, don't forget my TomiAhonen Phone Book 2010. That volume has over 90 tables and charts of handset industry stats. And now I have a special offer - I will be releasing the 2012 edition of the Phone Book late this Summer or early Autumn (there was no 2011 edition, the 2010 is the current edition). If you buy the 2010 edition of the Phone Book now, you will receive both it and the 2012 Phone Book for the same low price of only 9.99 Euros. If you don't know what the Phone Book data looks like it is similar to the Almanac - you can download the 2010 edition of the TomiAhonen Almanac 2010 for free and no registration etc, at Lulu.com. Its an unrestrictred pdf file formatted for the small screen and has over 90 tables and charts about the mobile industry, including one chapter about handsets. Get yours now, it has a ton of useful stats and data, even as its a bit older. You can see the table of contents and buy the new edition of the Almanac here - TomiAhonen Almanac 2012 edition at 9.99 Euros. And you can see the table of contents and ordering info of the TomiAhonen Phone Book 2010 edition here.

Comments

[So Vatar]

Tomi,
can you provide some background how you arrived at WP and MeeGo numbers for Q1? I understand we are looking at the minor leagues here (WP sales numbers are almost a rounding error compared to Android), but I can't find anywhere a conclusive report that shows WP sales in Q1 and MeeGo sales in Q1.
Of course I'd like to see MeeGo as comparatively successful (I use an N9 and I am very satisfied with the device), but it is hard to believe that in Q1 almost as many Nokia N9s were sold as handsets running WP (sold by Samsung, HTC, and Nokia).

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi So

Follow the link, there is the blog I explain why my guesstimate says that still in Q1 MeeGo outsold Nokia branded Windows Phone Lumia units (but clearly did not outsell all of Windows Phone by all makers). I think judging by how aggressively Elop has tried to kill and discredit MeeGo, that he has been unable to provide an actual number, is near certainty that up to Q1 MeeGo did outsell Lumia. I expect that to change now in Q2 and no doubt, we'll hear that from Nokia in Q2 results.

Cheers

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[vladkr]

Hi Tomi
Looking at these figures, can we can Nokia to become #4, just under RIM for Q2 ?

As Salo factory doesn't manufacture anything any more, and as the other surviving Nokia factories are busy with Asha, 1XX and 2XX and other low cost products, where will the N9 be manufactured ?

Actually, will they be manufactured, or is it just the stock that is being sold in the US (by the way, N9 was available in North America since the beginning through independent resellers)?

About carriers' demand for Symbian products, it seems confirmed by a fact I noticed and shared here some time ago; not only Canadian carriers keep on selling symbian phones, they offer even recent ones (such as videotron for instance.)

P.S. I finally found a demo Lumia 900 nearby; I can't tell if it's good or not, as it was put right next to a Galaxy Note and a Galaxy S2, which have way better screens (and made the Nokia almost invisible)... that's quite a bad way to promote the Lumia.

[Earendil Star]

Tomi, thanks for the update.

Looks like RIM is going to overtake Nokia in Q2. Ooops...

I start being really impressed by THT Elop's performance. I believe it must be unmatched in the history on any company since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution.

Congrats, Stevie!

[fritz]

I'm a software developer, using Qt for Embedded Linux. I would love to buy the N950, but unfortunately this Microsoft mole refuses to sell me one. What can you say. The whole thing smells like plot by some big american investors. I wish someone would stop this canadian bastard and his gang. But unfortunately it looks like the case is lost. R.I.P. Nokia.

[Eduardo]

This is interesting:

"In pressure from European customers, Nokia’s board pressured CEO Steven Elop to back down and commit to further development in Belle. The company now has charted out Belle devices for at least the next three years. Belle platform development is also being spearheaded by software consulting giant Accenture."

www.phonenews.com/nokia-selling-n9-united-states-20341/

So maybe the BOD is finally coming to its senses, but I am guessing it is too late to save the company

[Kenny]

No, it's not true that the N9 is being quietly sold in the U.S. officially by Nokia. Fry is just bringing in the N9 on their own just as Amazon and Expansys have been doing all along. This means there will be no Nokia U.S. warranty for the N9. Fry appears to be bringing in the N9 as closing down sales as they used to do with other end of line products. Still, the price of US$599 shows the high value they put on the N9.

[AsianAnalyst]

Meanwhile, NYSE:NOK is currently trading at $2.80, fresh new 52-week low and back to the September, 1996 price.

[bjarneh]

i'm sad to say that the N9 is basically discontinued as of now; the source which says the N9 is begin sold in the US is clearly interpreting the facts in a biased way. there is no evidence to support US sales of this (great) phone.

[Pappy]

According to the bible, Egypt had ten plagues.
Water turned to blood, invasion of frogs, lice and locust-invasion etc...

For Finland - all that was needed was Elop.

[Sammy]

It's probably Fry's own decision to bring in the N9 to U.S. Prices of N9 have been cut elsewhere like closing down sales. But the news that the PureView 808 will be officially sold in the U.S. is true and confirmed by Endgadget.

Here we can see the different treatment between the PureView 808 and N9. Nokia's original intention was not the sell the 808 in U.S. After hearing the cries of interest from U.S. consumers they relented. Why did they ignore the even louder cries of interest for the N9? Because the 808 is basically a monster camera with phone capabilities running outdated Symbian and it will not compete with Lumia. But if Nokia sells the N9 alongside the Lumia 900 it will probably eat the Lumia 900 for lunch.

But a sale is still a sale for Nokia so why the discrimination? Unless there is a Microsoft mole making the decision.

[Sander van der Wal]

If you are providing these figures for developers too, you should add iPad (and iPod touch) sales, or at the very least have those next to smartphone-only sales. iOS being on those devices too is a big part of what makes iOS attractive to developers. There are also niceties like iOS users willing to spend money on software (unlike some other well-known mobile OS starting with an A), but in this context total platform usage would alady be excellent.

Regarding the destruction of the Symbian user base, I would not assume Symbian users are a priori loyal. They would move to a better smartphone like a shot, and that is what has happened.

And about a new lease of life for Symbian: unless there is a new commitment from Nokia to support the platform indefenitely, it will not change much in third party developers supporting it. Learning a platform take time and the costs of learning need to be recovered during the lifetime of the platform. Three years is nothing, a platform is either supported forever, or it is dead. Whether reviving Symbian is going to work is still a massive gamble, there are opportunity costs.

[Ralph Lauren outlet]

a platform is either supported forever, or it is dead. Whether reviving Symbian is going to work is still a massive gamble, there are opportunity costs.

[parastar]

In practice support for a platform is one thing only, i.e. bringing new models.

[cycnus]

@Sander van der Wal,

.... Regarding the destruction of the Symbian user base, I would not assume Symbian users
.... are a priori loyal. They would move to a better smartphone like a shot, and that is
.... what has happened.

I was also wondering about this.
Before the Elop 2-11 stupid memo, Tomi said that OS doesn't really matter, which mean Nokia brand is the one that the user after.

But it turn out, that most symbian user change to Android/Samsung.
Is it because Samsung is second best in symbian user opinion, and with the boycott on nokia, samsung gain?
Is it because user don't choose their phone, but buy the one that were offered by the sales counter.
Or is it because symbian user were microsoft hatter (just like me)?

@Pasaster,

It would be funny if the new symbian model would beat Lumia series sell.

[Michael Elling (@Infostack)]

It would be interesting to compare smartphone share with desktop/laptop share to see if there is much difference. The former are in relatively constricted/oligopolistic markets, while the latter are part of "open, competitive" markets. There is a natural power law that you might also refer to known as Zipf's law that may well be at play here. The smartphone market development has some definite parallels to the development of automobiles. http://bit.ly/JQybBk

[JD!]

I wonder why smartest OS is languishing down there at 2%???

[Elop Destroyed Nokia...Who you gonna call ???]

I am going to launch a ten store covert intel, where I eavesdrop salesmen & customer interaction and take notes whether Nokia is recommended or not by the salesmen.

I will come back and report the results.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi vladkr, Earendil, fritz, Eduardo and Kenny

vladkr - yeah, there seems to be a race between RIM and Nokia on who falls faster haha. Nokia is falling at faster rate, but started higher, so its not sure yet. I am expecting it to be close in Q2 and likely Nokia fallen behind RIM but I have better visibility to Nokia's major markets (here in Asia) than RIM's (North America)...

Earendil - yes, its true and what truly stuns me, is that there is so little reporting on the comprehensive collapse of Nokia. If this happened to Toyota in cars or Sony in TVs or HP in PCs or ExxonMobil in petroleum or Coca Cola in drinks, we'd have massive headline stories in the big business papers and magazines daily. But smartphones are still seen as a tiny near-irrelevant niche tech market where companies come and companies go haha.. But it will be increasingly in the news as the corporate Nokia suffers in the process.

fritz - I hear you and yes, it smells to high heaven, as they say. It also seems worse by the day on whether there can be any recovery even.

Eduardo - thanks, yes thats a very enlightening passage but also, like you say, it seems way too late now and the actions by the clearly reluctant Elop are obvious. He is not going along merrily to a better healthier Nokia. Because Nokia currently still has 2 MeeGo based devices that are still today (before iPhone 5) seen as highly competitive and desirable, and as they are Nokia manufactured devices in contrast with much of the Lumia line, which is subcontracted to Compal of Taiwan, and as MeeGo OS requires no royalty payments, there is almost nothing stopping Nokia from rushing the N9 and N950 to the market, try to sell as many millions now, while the Lumia line is suffering, to have something good to sell to Nokia customers this time. But no. He refuses. Even after the awards won like in the UK etc. That is lunacy in my book. And if Elop 'promises' some more Symbian Belle devices like the 808 PureView, that is small peanuts, while he pushes the Lumia line. I do see minor evidence of the carriers pressuring Nokia via the Board, and some even less evidence of it reaching Elop, but its not enough.

Kenny - thanks for the clarification. So its not even that bit of silver lining that we maybe hoped for. Clearly Elop wants to kill off the N9 and MeeGo as soon as he possibly can. And I sense that after Ollila retired as Chairman, now Elop has even more of a free hand to do what damage he feels like..

Thank you everybody for the comments, keep the discussion going, I'll return with more replies shortly

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[vladkr]

Some little more reading; English translation of the "Microsoft Windows Phone 7 : reasons for failure" with MS' answer to it :

http://www.mobile-review.com/articles/2012/wp7-1-en.shtml