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« How Microsoft Lost the Future (Updated with Ballmer Quote from Seoul) | Main | Paging Truth Police: No! Windows Phone and Nokia Lumia are NOT outselling iPhone in China. Utter BS story spread by Microsoft propaganda machine »

May 21, 2012

Comments

bjarneh

@Eurofan: yes, and it could ship fast and cheap for developers, that would get the ball rolling, more apps more interest etc. the phones themselves are so good that marketing is just a matter of having them available (which is why they are not available IMO)..

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Illogical, eduardo, So, vladkr, Lee, Vinicius, bjarneh, Eurofan and Jacob

Illogical - very true. The top management will have seen almost immediately that Elop was not fit to run the company. And yes, apart from those, very many from the next layer, the VP level have also left during early Elop tenure. That also means, that it would be very difficult to try to correct the ship rapidly, if most competent top management is gone. Anyone who were to replace Elop, should at least immediately cut out the cancer which is his Microsoft mafia, eliminate all who came with Elop or with a Microsoft background..

eduardo - yes to both haha. I really would love to read that agreement haha, but am guessing it will remain super-secret forever, regardless of whether this alliance survives haha.. Microsoft will have enormous penalties if any confidentiality of that contract is revealed, and I'd guess its a very small circle who have seen it..

So - true about we'll know soon enough (and that I will then call out this Mr van der Whatever-he-was and his silliness). What I really do expect, is 'any day now' breaking story that someone has made a hostile bid for Nokia - then to result in a bidding war against at least Microsoft. Considering how low the share price has fallen already, it dropped below Nokia's balance sheet assets value a year ago and fallen almost another 30% since then.. I am puzzled that nobody is making a move. The point you made about pension funds and obviously Nordic European rules about layoffs, and in the case of Germany with NokiaSiemens Networks perhaps even more strict rules in Germany haha, will also play their part.

vladkr - you are so SO correct about that. It makes ZERO sense at all. Since Nokia was already developing Meltemi, and Meltemi technically, and from its ecosystem, and from Nokia competence, and from software components etc - is a cousin of MeeGo and Maemo - the last thing Nokia would want to do, is to 'kill' the 'parent' of Meltemi. Imagine how much more successful Meltemi would be, if the world had 20 million or 30 million MeeGo users by the time Meltemi launched, and the Nokia developers would have the Qt tools environment to run their migration path from Symbian. But why? I am sure this is the mission of Elop when he came from Microsoft, and when he plotted the Microsoft strategy for Nokia with Ballmer. Ballmer of course wants all rival systems eliminated as soon as possible, including Symbian, Ovi store, MeeGo and Qt. Elop has been doing a good job at it so far. And yes, Elop is not stupid, I do agree with you. This is a carefully planned assassination of all things Nokia. He is the assassin hired by Ballmer, and he is doing it very efficiently. He is not stupid, definitely. But he also has made a ton of short-term tactical mistakes, which says that at least he is not well familiar with the mobile industry or he does't really care..

Lee - sorry, but Apple hasn't done much exciting in the past few weeks, haha

Vinicius - even if Nokia were to go bankrupt or be acquired, it won't instantly turn off the factories and sales. The process will continue and were it to happen that Nokia suddenly collapsed as a company, the prices of the 808 PureViews would fall haha.. But I think its a safe bet that there will be Nokia handsets in the stores regardless of what happens at the corporate level..

bjarneh - on 'evil empire' - I do disagree. Microsoft - in my view - has been the most aggressive in sueing rivals, most arrogant in abusing its market power, most sued by governments, most accused by rivals, and specifically in mobile, has been the kiss of death to partnerships from Sendo to Nortel to Motorola haha... But I do agree that all corporations have a profit motive. That does not in my book make a company 'evil'..

Good point about the bribes and that it is not a sustainable business in consumer electronics. About N9/N950 and MeeGo being competitive. Yes, its an exceptional device (or pair) and OS, and yes, it is still very good now, but it was magical a year ago. Last year the N9 was rated in essentially all reviews better than any other OS than the iPhone, and even in head-to-head reviews against the iPhone, for the first time by ANY phone by any maker, the N9 got often rated 'better' than the iPhone. Not always, not even half the time, but more often than any other phone ever. Last year, it was so far ahead of the game, that Nokia could have created a Razr moment for Nokia, to have a global super hit phone and grow sales, market share, revenues and profits massively. That chance is gone, and the more time goes by, the Samsung Galaxy S3 and iPhone 5 and whatever next will come and eat at the lead the N9 had last year. I don't mean it is obsolete yet, but the massive 'leap' opportunity that Nokia had, is now pretty well gone.

Eurofan - haha, N9-808 wow, that would be monster..

Jacob - I have said before, it is pretty irrelevant. In Finland Nokia is one of biggest tech users of mobile services, all Nokia staff now getting Lumias, they have 'unlimited' data. Also many at Elisa, Sonera and DNA will have Lumias, and again, they have no limits on their use. The premium handset market in Finland is dramatically distorted by the fact that most high tech companies in Finland are in telecoms and closely related to Nokia.. But yeah, I know, Statcounter measures that. It is not in any way comparable to ANY other country for Nokia performance haha..

Keep the comments coming

Tomi Ahonen :-)

John

Very true @bjarneh. The N9 is just so good device I had to buy one just to keep in case Nokia ends up bankrupt & MeeGo finally dies. The device is one of the only device that can save Nokia only if stupid elop would make it available worldwide.

Still possible to get it in Finland though but not as widely available as you would expect for a great

Spawn

@bjarneh

> Microsoft ... are hardly an evil empire compared to the other players,

None of the other players is on war, does apply such tactics, was conformed by highest courts to act illegal, fights such dirty fights (browsers, document formats, compatibility and standards).
Sure all companies like $ just like all people. But most companies go for that while trying to preserve a good public image, follow minimal etics and try to look not evil.
Microsoft does not care. My believe is that the monopoly-experience made them arogant. They forget about the importance to play nice for succees cause within there monopoly they where no need to play nice.

Spawn

@Eurofan

> With the pureview camera module, a super N9 would outsell all other $1000 smartphones in 2013 world wide, I'm sure.

I am not sure. The N9 is the most competative device Nokia ever produced but in its current form anything Nokia does has no future. Partners and developers know that. Nokia cannot any longer build an own platform, an own ecosystem. Its to late.

Last year they had strong partners like Intel, Asus. They had cash, market-share, partners, talented and high motivated employees, trust. Today there is not much left.

A Meego/Symbian strategy would stop the downfall. But it would not anf cannot bring Nokia back to where it was once not so long ago.

Its to late.

John

@baron95, another uber fanboy :D

Kenny

Tomi, the Nokia/MS info war can be seen first hand at the Amazon site. Out of 336 user reviews of Lumia 900 at Amazon, an incredible 296 (88%) gave it 5-stars and 94% gave it 4 or 5 stars. You have to wonder whether they are MS or Nokia employees.The fact that the Lumia 900 got 336 reviews is itself suspicious when other models in the list only have double digit numbers of review. And this is for a phone which encountered such embarassing problems that Nokia had to give a rebate of $100 to placate customers.

The Lumia 900 continue to suffer from a whole host of defects such as inability of wi-fi to coexist with LTE, poor battery life, vibration rattle, purple tint display, sticky capacitive buttons, phone hangs after a call, self-reboot, camera unable to focus, pink spot in photos, slow screen response, terrible echos during calls, battery sudden drain with heat, dropped calls, etc. Many users exchange their phone 2-3 times which must be terrible on Nokia's bottom line.

American and Canadian Lumia users also have a special problem with legally unlocked Lumia 900. WP7.5 has no way to customize MMS settings for each Carrier which all dumb phones can do. To correct this oversight Microsoft released a "network setup app" but this app is not available in the N. American market. Hence these users cannot send or receive MMS for theur legally unlocked phones if they change Carrier. Nokia is aware of this problem but they are having a problem getting MS to release the app in N. America. Too bad, Nokia's fate is now in Microsoft's hands.

Lasko

Nokia now becoming Microsoft in terms of business strategies acutally is a _huge_ burden for Nokia. The Bochum disaster (http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,528713,00.html) already caused a serious damage to Nokias reputation in Europes biggest markets and if now will out that they are faking numbers, having paid writers and artifical wars with sceptical reviewers - and this ridiculous Nokia Army thing - Nokias remaining reputation just hits rock-bottom.

Its quite naive to believe that such things will remain unnoticed and be sure that media will pick up this stories soon - especially now when mentioned on your blog. Bittersweet irony that exactly this bullying strategy on the part of Nokia/Microsoft has put world largest spotlight on your blog and is now the driving force behind the spread of such news.

But this is just another proof that Elop (and in first place Ballmer) have no whatsoever clue how business works outside of sheltered workshops powered by monopoly.

People already hate Microsoft, and they hate Windows. If they now start hating Nokia too just close the doors and turn out the lights because that's it.

"Shame on you, Nokia!". There is nothing to add to this.

JD!

As per cnet, existing Lumia phones (including flagship L900) cannot be upgraded to Windows8. http://www.cnet.com.au/would-you-buy-a-phone-if-you-couldnt-update-it-339338353.htm

This is worst for any company.

QtFan

I don't think Nokia will be bought any time soon. Because Microsoft is already happy plundering and controlling Nokia and most likely fear of government intervention(before and after the acquisition).

And WinPho did really get 7% market share of China! *
* of sold devices of China Telecom of the chosen 4 week period including only +USD200,00 :P

AsianAnalyst

Looking at the StatCounter GlobalStats, the only place where Windows Mobile recorded meaningful increase in use after Lumia lunch was Finland. Could anyone find any other country where Lumia actually sales? Base on these status, looks like Q2 reporting will be total disaster for NOK. NOK and Microsoft employees are probably the only buyers. Base on StatCounter, Windows Mobile has 0.95% market share in USA. SEC should investigate NOK and Microsoft for all the false comments on Lumia sales.

CN

@AsianAnalyst

No, WP (not WM) sells in Finland only, you are right. And while Finland adds about 100k subscriptions (not subscribers) quarterly and not all those are WP devices, we can assume the 2Q Lumia sales be about 10-50k, maximum. Globally. Leading WP product(?), Lumia is available in 51 markets (~countries), on 130 Operators. But, it is selling only through DNA, Elisa, Sonera and few smaller MVNO's in Finland. Not a lot, but anyway.

SEC also need to investigate Operators' statements. TMO US "quite pleased" and AT&T "exceeding expectation" needs to be looked at. China Telecom's ranking lists are false too. And customer reviews at Amazon... Well well...

Tomi's forecast on 4 Million Lumia's in 2Q12? Dream on.

Ivan

Please, stop citing Eldar Murtazin, it's damaging your credibility. He is well know jerk in Russia and his reputation is quite bad, especially his analytical side...

vladkr

Ivan, be constructive, please give concrete examples of cases when E.Murtazin was wrong (and no answer like "there are so many it would take years to quote" will be accepted, that would be too easy).

And about the fact he's "well known jerk" in Russia... most people there don't even know him.

bjarneh

@John: i totally agree, placing the white and black N9 in shop windows would be enough to create a buzz, no need for fake consumer reviews on amazon etc.


@Tomi: you are right about the N9 and it's ability to become a game changer has passed in some parts of the world, but Nokia is somewhat different than other brands; they truly have loyal customers. i know, since my brother is one of them. he's always had a Nokia phone (since 95/96) and he swore never to switch, but recently his boss bought him an iPhone to get better video (he's a journalist) when he covers small stories etc. now he's never going back to Nokia, he's completely amazed by the iPhone, i don't think he's alone, Nokia needs to amaze those loyal followers before it's too late.


@Tomi: there are parts of the world were Nokia still rule; i was recently in Venezuela and the only brands i saw there was Nokia and Blackberry, no Samsung or iPhone to be seen either on the street or in the shops. there are probably more countries (like that) were Nokia has a stronghold, and people could be amazed by the N9/N950. they would be much less likely to buy an iPhone or android phones if they already had N9/N950 "experience".

note: the android user experience is choppy, even on serious hardware like tablets. the symbian touch experience is also poor, but the meego experience is excellent, it's similar to the iOS (this is important, it's the difference between touch-guestures and "magic")


@Tomi, @Spawn: Microsoft and their wrongdoings.

i agree 100% about what you guys say about Microsoft, they have abused their power in many ways, i'm just saying the any other company furtunate to be in the same position would have done exactly the same. i've worked with free software for a while, so i'm not saying good things about Microsoft here, but i'll try to provide a couple of examples.

Microsoft: uses their IE to push Netscape down the stairs
Google: uses gmail.com/google.com (this site works better with Chrome etc) to push Firefox/IE/Opera down the stairs

Microsoft: total lock-in with office formats and portability issues
Apple: total lock-in with appstore and portability issues

Microsoft: cheats on their taxes
Apple/Gooble: does the exact same thing (double Irish, offshore accounts etc)

Microsoft: writes fake reviews on all sorts of websites for their products
Everyone else: does exactly the same


the list is endless, all companies does whatever it takes to win. Microsoft is different for a single reason, they have been exposed to a much larger extent than other companies, this does not make them worse IMO.

vladkr

@Tomi

In your answer to Bjarmeh, you made a point, which is more important than the Skype issue to me.

Microsoft is arrogant, that's a fact, and I think it's the main problem, Skype being an excuse. Carriers didn't like WinCE, WM and WP even before Microsoft bought Skype. Now they have it, it makes things worse, but the biggest problem is MS image.
People use Windows because they have to... mainly at work, and at home, well, unless you can pay $1000 minimum for a mac, you'll buy a PC with Windows (entry price about $300). That doesn't mean people like it, many are those who complain about unreliability, viruses, and so on...

Just like in Soviet Union didn't buy Ladas because they were good, they bought it because they had no choice (except the happy few who could import cars)

Windows = Lada; Some like it, many don't... justified or not, it has clearly a bad reputation.

In the other hand, Nokia would be more SAAB, but in much better selling; I compare those two because of their respective engineer's creativity; remember Nokia 3650 with its round keyboard, the 6800 with it's compact/ergonomic QWERTY keyboard, the scroll wheel of the 7110... even Pureview technology.

Unfortunately, there are chances Microsoft will put Nokia where GM put SAAB... too bad!

CIO

Nokia is bankrupt; here's why:
- Pending massive costs associated with future layoffs at Nokia (my very optimistic estimate is around 4 billion Euro?),
- Massive costs associated with NSN failure including pending layoffs (2 billion Euro?),
- Pension fund costs (1 billion Euro?)
- Pending tablet failure (1 billion Euro?)
Now just add up cash Nokia will burn each Q due to failed Windows Phone strategy (1B euro / Q?) with falling Symbian sales and bankruptcy is guaranteed. It is also unlikely that anyone will acquire Nokia. Google/Apple or Microsoft would only be interested in patents and certainly would not like to deal with closing Nokia factories, dealing with thousands of NSN employees (especially unions) and various other liabilities. This is the same reason why they couldn't sell NSN despite being desperate. Sorry to say, but Nokia is already gone. It's sad to watch. Tomi's strategy to save Nokia could probably help to recover this company up to last month, but now it is too late and everything will pretty much end on July 19, unless they'll take WorldCom path.

Arjun

@CIO just look at this "Nokia Could Jump 40% By 2014"!:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/608661-nokia-could-jump-40-by-2014

Let me quote for you "I have faith in Nokia's management, and expect this stock to trade between $4 and $5 by late 2013.".

Can't beat faith! Other NOK predictions of similar quality:
- 15/02/2012 Barclays Capital: PT $8
- 05/01/2012 Credit Suisse: PT $7.72
- 26/10/2011 Northland Securities: PT $10
- 28/01/2011 Morgan Keegan: PT $11.50

Current NYSE:NOK price: $2.91

vladkr

@Tomifan:
as usual, title and content are two different things. Who can tell what paper Ballmer, Elop and the others signed? Who can tell what will Nokia become by the end of 2012? Will Elop resign this year?...

- Have you noticed that 2012 is not finished yet?

- signing deals (what E.Murtazin claimed) and announcing them officially, as the title of the article suggests are two different things.

Sure, E.Murtazin made mistakes, and I think in his this week's article about WP for example, he's wrong, however most of time, he appeared to be right.

Ark-kun

>Sixthly, Samsung is China's bestselling smartphone. And Samsung is diminishing Windows Phone sales and models.
>Seventhly, HTC is the other big Windows Phone maker? They are expressly witnessing a declining market share in China right now, this Spring.

Samsung is a smartphone?
Does samsung or Android has anything to do with WP7 vs. iPhone in Chine?

I think that you are not only dumb, but stoned.

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