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« Mobile Services Beyond Messaging? Excellent TNS Global Survey Reveals Tons | Main | Understanding OTT - Why Carriers dislike BBM, hate iMessage and fear Skype (updated) »

May 09, 2012

Comments

So Vatar

@Tomifan:
I tried to read your comment but I am unable to comprehend what you mean.

I just guess you mean something like this:
1) Tomi picks parts of quotes he likes in order to make a point.
2) Tomi paints it black or white disregarding the wide shades of gray in between.
3) Nokia does not like what Tomi writes or concludes.
4) They say Tomi misquotes but fail to find a "misquoted" quote.
5) They call on him publicly but come out looking stupid in the debate.

Maybe I don't react so strongly to these techniques as I have to endure it every day watching political infights between Dems and Reps, Obama and Romney, NBC and Fox, etc.
No time for intellectual discussion, just looking for soundbites to make the opponent look bad.

I do have a serious question though:
Do you feel Elop has answered the question presented by the shareholder regarding Skype and impact on Nokia in a straight and unambiguous manner? Maybe Elop's double speak is part of the "He said - she said" problem?

Was Elop asked about number of N9 sold? Did he reply? Did he reply in a manner that was clearly understood by people attending the AGM? I don't know, I was not there. But this lack of clear information opens up a huge space for speculation. And I do not think this is in Nokia's best interest.

Spawn

@Peter

> speculations of Skype influence between operator-Nokia relations.

Please read the article again. Especially the question asked and.the answer given by Elop.

> The "Attack" is happening because of the point I was trying to make in my previous comment. It's not about misquoting

Then you seem to read a different article then me.
I mean its not like Tomi build up a thesis about that. There was a question asked that got answered by Elop. You think Elop did not confirm the statement formulated on th question?

Question: Is there a problem with x?
Answer: Yes. We to solve x with y and turn it from a disadvantage to an advantage.

Did you understand it different? Really? Seriously?

@DEKRA

> Nokia's top USA sales guy left a long term successful Nokia sales job 'for personal reasons' after this Skype boycott...
> Nothing but speculation on your end.


So articles like
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-04-20/news/31373992_1_nokia-siemens-networks-stephen-elop-microsoft-s-windows-phone
and the other 135000 that covered the story are also all written by Tomi? I am impressed :)


PlatformWarrior

I think more relevant question in the share holders meeting would have been "why Nokia's strategy is to put all eggs into WP basket while competitors like Samsung invest in Android as well as WP?" I suspect that it is related to Nokia's badly failed chipset strategy i.e. Nokia cannot compete against Samsung in chipsets so it is desperately trying to create a 3rd ecosystem that it could lead by other means than chipsets. Ollila admited himself that Nokia has chosen "high risk strategy with potentially higher profits" but looking at the development in the share price it seems like less and less people in the market believe in that strategy.

Peter

@all

Tomi is correct about skype but under a condition: Nokia/MS do not have a killer phone that every users want to buy so that nokia can overcome operators opposition of skype.

If Nokia promotes Nokia N9 last year, even if nokia supports whole skype integration, it won't be issue for carriers, because n9 would be the coolest smartphone at that time which would overcome operators opposition of skype.

Unfortunately Lumia 900 is a disaster as Tomi revealed: looks cool in shop, turns into disaster at home within one week.

why operators bother to touch lumia series not to mention the pending skype stuff ?!

Nokia's plight in Q1 is greatly aggragated by the returned lumia phones and lumia warranty repair cost.

The more lumia sold, the more loss nokia is incurring. Now the Noth Amecia Head of Nokia Chris Weber has to promote Nokia 808 pureview which he just declared "won't come to usa weeks ago".


Nokia whole boards and new chairman know it well, however, they continue claiming it is the right team right strategy right product.

Yeah, right things for WS short sellers for sure and even right things to dismantle nokia for sure. Thats exactly road to certain death as Tomi portrayed.

It is time to bring all board members into justice if they do not promote nokia n9/n950 in all markets.


Regards,
Peter

Spawn

@Peter

> Nokia whole boards and new chairman knows it well, however, they continue claiming it is the right team right strategy right product.

Yes, they are aware that the Windows Phone srategy is failing but they will keep the course.

The problem is those of responsibily. A failing strategy is not uncommon and usually its in max the CEO being responsible and changed. Not in this case.
The whole board did multiple huge mistakes that will have bad effects on Noki for years if it survives at all.
The huge mistake is NOT the windows phone strategy. Its a mistake but not the reason for the current situation.
The reason for the current situation and the huge mistake was to kill the cash-cow, that was Symbian.
Nokia made all its money with Symbiab ob so called Featurephones. It was decreasong but could have still bring enough cash in to finance a new strategy.
That was a board-decision. Killing the cash-cow before there the new strategy was even in place. Long before.
That was not only not needed but os going to kill now. Elop and the board killed Nokoas cash-cow and burned all bridges down to ever turn back.
I repeat: this was not needed. They could just have put Symbian and Meego on hold, investing only the peanuts needed to keep them alive and give the Windows Phone strategy a try.
Hell, Samsung has 3 os's too and all 3 are actively improved and pushed and not in a cheap hold-and-keep-alive mode.
But no, Nokia killed and burned all its other platforms down so it can never ever return.
As Elop sayed it: There is no plan B.

Peter

Tomifan,

"which is really weird as you claim it only applies to Nokia (S40, S60, MeeGo, WP7) and not to any other manufacturer that is making Windows Phones"

1. other manufacturers do not sleep with microsoft.
2. other manufacturers do not bully and arrogant like Steven Elop to carriers and end consumers.
3. other manufacturers do have overwhelming products to overcome the opposition of carriers to skype.

obviously you simply have no reasoning logic. you need to stop your comments cause your brain is severely damaged and stay in infant age for ever.


Peter

TheOneThatGotAway

Well I believe it is dificult to read Elops answer anybit different than he confirms the premise for the question posed, he even states that the disadvantage could be changed to an advantage.
Like i wrote in my previous posts today, it is quite evident that to make any business out an 8.5 billion USD Skype investment, you need a business model that taps into the operator revenue stream.
When Nokia bought Navteq at 8.1 billion USD, the maps service was a paid service. That along with envisioned location based services justified the investment.
Now when Nokia Drive is simply a constituent of the ecosystem supporting sales with no fee's, the Navteq asset has fallen considerably in value. With a total market cap for Nokia at roughly 12 billion USD there is only room for a very low single digit asset value of Navteq.
All in all Skype needs to generate an amount of money that can only come from voice/video calls - that revenue needs to be taken from operators where else ?

TheOneThatGotAway

@Baron
So what you are saying is that Microsoft made an 8.5 billion USD fuck-up ?

P

@Baron95

Whatsap is one single application, they don't have monopoly on desktops creating operating systems, databases, development applications, business applications etc.

Other companies don't like companies that are so strong that they can dictate what others should do, companies like competition and they like to be able to choose instead of being stuck.

I don't think that skype is the main problem for Microsoft/Nokia, it is the combination and that Microsoft owns the PC market.

ejvictor

Always like a good Baron-ism(though I'm getting concerned about the quality of the analysis). Chicken and egg, what came first skype or Facetime? Skype or Gtalk? Thank god Silicon valley created alternatives to that Euro trash software and a proper American company finally bought them ;)

As it has been pointed out here, if Mr. Elops answer were to be read by Joe Average on stupid street, I'm sure, not knowing who Mr.Elop is, they would think he runs either Microsoft or Skype, not Nokia, a totally idependent party that has partnered with Skype(pre-MS0) longer then any other mobile device provider and never suffered setbacks.

Also it is insulting that Mr.Elop thinks VOIP is "comming" - it has been here since the late 90's and integrated into Nokia devices since the N95 (Don't you wish he used nokia devices before he joined the firm)... but then againg this is the CEO of a technology company that thinks dual cores are a wast of batteries.

cycnus

@TheOneThatGotAway

...Now when Nokia Drive is simply a constituent of the ecosystem supporting sales with no fee's,
...the Navteq asset has fallen considerably in value. With a total market cap for Nokia
...at roughly 12 billion USD there is only room for a very low single digit asset
...value of Navteq.

No it's not.
Because when Nokia use Navteq asset for 'free', it pays to the bleeding on it subsidiary.
(i.e if Navteq were in profit let say US$ 100 million that contribute to nokia earning, after nokia drive free, it's bleeding US$100 million. In reality nokia pay US$ 200 million to boost their devices sales #.

furthermore, when nokia use navteq asset for free, doesn't mean the data have no value at all.
Third party such as google map and others still pay nokia for using the navteq data.

Bob Shaw

The carriers are getting disrupted by VoIP technology. The boycott of Windows Phones by the carriers is not going to solve the problems of the carriers. The VoIP technology will find its own way to get to the customers who want it despite the obstacle from the carriers. No firm or industry has ever succeeded in fighting technology and there is no reason why carriers would have a different outcome fighting VoIP.

It makes more sense for the carriers to accept that VoIP is for real and start thinking in terms of how best to create a revenue stream out of VoIP rather than fight it. Some carriers have already started working in this direction and more will follow after some initial resistance. Nokia and Microsoft should just hold on as whatever resistance to Skype is not going to last too long.

Hoista

Skype is inevitable is not just bullying. Put into a wider perspective it's really disruptive messaging and calling services are inevitable and Micro soft need to be involved in this disruption as a key part of their platform strategy. Whether that's facetime, iMessage, Whatsapp, Line or the other multitude of services sprouting up, the operators are being disrupted.

The dislike Skype the most because they are the oldest, biggest, cross platform (iMessage and Facetime are not) have the most active users and most mature product line.

Put simply, it is inevitable, but Elop failed to mention why it is inevitable and Tomi interpreted it as a a 'bullying' stance, rather than a disruption in progress whether MS do it or not, someone will do it. Hence why Telefonica is developing apps within this area to try to keep control of their subscribers.

Earendil Star

Tomi, I think what vladkr says is correct.

Nokia's PR machine is focusing on the Skype issue because, for them, it is probably the less damaging part of the story.

This is a war of communication, and what is being employed here is another tactict to keep eyes away from the real issues.

And communication has been used very shrewdly by THT Elop: just take the "Burning Platform" BS memo.
Its real aim was to create a greatly exaggerated sense of urgency, to induce people to jump on the WP leaking boat.
It was like screaming "on fire", with no fire, to have people jump on a boat they would never had stepped on otherwise.

To counter this, I think you should highlight in your twitter debate and other communications, all the other misgivings of Nokia's WP strategy.

This is what I believe would render their fog curtain useless.

In any case, and always, thanks for your insight.

Earendil Star

95 % nonesense, your posts are always a good laugh. Keep posting!

The difference between the iPhone and WP, is that consumers love the iPhone. As for WP, they avoid it like lice.

Carriers pay Apple to be able to sell the iPhone, while MS pays carriers to (pretend) they support WP.

iPhone is the market leader, WP is a statistical rounding error.

Sad for your employer, good for us consumers. But it's reality, the one thing you do not seem to be able to grasp.

Ah, incidentally, just to expose some more of your nonesense, remember that the mobile revolution is underpinned by ARM.
And, sorry, no, it's not from silicon valley. It's from the UK...

Franz

Baron95, obviously there is room for more than one business model in the market. I agree that operators most likely dislike certain aspects of doing business with Apple but since there is such a strong consumer demand for the iPhone, most of them have still come to the conclusion that they make better business WITH Apple than without. After all, it's a free world, so "hate" is maybe a strong word. Nokia was in a very similar position some ten years ago.

The real question right now is who needs WP to succeed, besides Microsoft and Nokia? The consumer pull seems very weak, with iOS and Android providing all the choice they need. Same could be said for developers. Operators seem to see things in a similar light, for the time being, with the possible exception of AT&T. Besides, I believe that the smartphone boom have weakened the operators position significantly and they control an decreasing amount of what really matters in mobile today. In many ways they have been reduced to handset retailers that sells coverage and dataplans who simply cannot afford to not sell what their customers want.
We are then finally left with the handset makers, of which most are committed to Android. While they too would love to be able to differentiate themselves from the competition in a more meaningful way than hardware, the reality is that WP offers very few such opportunities for anyone else than Nokia. Besides, why would they push an OS where one of their competitors already have a priviledged position? Better then to push their own thing, like BB or Bada.

Ultimately Nokia (and WP) need to get out of this negative spiral somehow but the question is how much room to navigate Nokia still has? They are bleeding market share and cash at an alarming pace and the means to make WP a credible platform in mobile is increasingly lying in the hands of Microsoft.

In my eyes it is incredible that Elop seem comfortable with losing 1B per quarter when the company has something like 50,000 employees to build maybe 10 handsets per year. There should be tons and tons of fat to lose there after all the good years, to at least buy them another year or so. One thing is clear; when the forensics will investigate this crash in a year or two, they won't find any skid marks.

togga

@Tomi
Excellent article, really an eye-opener. Having seen what Microsoft did on the PC-side as an developer, all the conclusions, strategies and bullying just falls natural. My guess is that there are plenty of developers that has embraced Nokia platforms because of their open strategies which enables them to be creative and innovative, a fun place to work. Pretty much all of them is aware of the PC situation where you have to wear Microsofts straight-jacket and be put in line in order to reach customers. They are likely to flee the scene like the orchs in Moria when the balrog arrives (Lord of The Rings scene).

@vladkr
I am not a MBA either but one theory why Mr Elop early shows all cards is that he is used to manage in a monopoly-like situation, where the customers have little choise but to sooner or later buy what he's throwing at them. The purpose should be to calm the users (and indirectly third part developers) down and sit still in the boat as the grass will become green on this side of the fence eventually.

(tip: do a search on "power evangelism" by "James Plamondon" and have a good read).

RedSun

I'd like a more in-depth analysis why people avoid Nokia WP phones?

For me it is that Nokia is so boring user experience, I know their slow update pace, expensive price of handsets and accessories, boring and bloated software, arrogance towards end-user, carrier a#¤-kissing...

As for lifestyle statement, Windows and Nokia phone are telling me that I am getting slower, stagnated, older, boring ...

Give your take !!

joel

@Tomifan,

can you make your opinion/conclusion clearly?
and please, don't be so excited.

it's true that the operators don't like Skype.
Tomi gave facts, logic and his conclusion and i agree with him but want to hear yours also.

Kime

What will Nokia autopsy reveal when it collapses in 2012?

I guess:

LOTS OF FAT (130 000 workers)

SEDATIVES (BOD's sleeping like babies, new DOB is incompetent, tired and knocked out)

STIMULANTS (Nokia PR department working in overdrive, spinning lies and fantasies about success of LUMIA line)

POISON (MS contract and TROJAN CHICKEN plan)


All in all, the patients body is full of poisons.


USEABLE ORGANS: DONATED.

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