Who Wants Numbers? Lumia on T-Mobile? Lumia 800 vs Lumia 710? How Many Nokia N9?

So who wants deeper info on Nokia numbers? Its time to do some mathematical modelling again. I like my numbers, they are my buddies. And I don't like it that the big smartphone makers are becoming ever more secretive about their product lines and shipment numbers. But when there are some tidbits of data, and some good analysis, we can get pretty close to the truth. Like I did three months ago with the regional split and other data about the Nokia smartphone sales.

So? Want to know how many Lumia smartphones by Nokia did T-Mobile USA sell? I think we know now. What about the split of Lumia 800 vs Lumia 710? That too. I think we can rather accurately also tell where the Lumia sales happened by Nokia's reporting regions.. And with a bit more digging, some interesting comparisons to Symbian and ... yes, with some assumptions, even MeeGo based N9 sales.

The key bit of data we got, was that the ASP for the Lumia series is 220 Euros (286 US dollars). And we know from Nokia Q1 results the regional sales of total Nokia handsets at 600,000 units, which generated 93 million Euros. We could do a simple equation to solve the price and shipment number for non-Lumia price phones, but actually, that would not be accurate. Because the ASP of 220 Euros is for the Lumia series, ie Lumia 800 and Lumia 710 as they were sold during Q1. And T-Mobile USA only sold the cheaper Lumia 710 model. How to calculate that ASP?

Haha, thats easy. Lets go to a country with no handset subsidies, in the Eurozone, and take the launch prices for both phones. Then use that price ratio, as the ASP's for both the Lumia 710 and Lumia 800. Obviously one needs to be below and one above the 220 Euro price, right? But these will tend to have teh same 'mark up' so their retail price and their wholesale price should be in the same proportion, as the two phones were launched essentially at the same time to the European markets. Haha, a little bit of math and voila! We have the ASP split:

NOKIA LUMIA ASP BY MODEL
Lumia 710 ASP . . . . 172 Euros (224 US dollars)
Lumia 800 ASP . . . . 268 Euros (348 US dollars)
Lumia series ASP . . 220 Euros (286 US dollars) 
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimate from company data, April 2012
This info may be freely shared

Now, when we take the Lumia 710 ASP, and the 93 million Euro total handset revenues earned by Nokia out of the USA, we can easily calculate that Nokia sold 290,000 Lumia 710 smartphones on T-Mobile USA. That leaves 310,000 other Nokia phones left, that generated sales revenues of 43 million Euros. That means we also know, they were clearly smartphones, not dumbphones, because their average price is 140 Euros, slightly above the 43 million that was generated out of the various carriers/operators in the USA selling non-Lumia phones. And as there was no N9 sold in the USA, we know those 310,000 Nokia non-Lumia smartphones were therefore.. Symbian smartphones.

Interesting, isn't it. That even after Elop killed Symbian sales in the USA, and then waited to launch Lumia, now in the first quarter of Lumia sales in the USA, Nokia's 'burning platforms obsolete' Symbian still outsold the Lumia in the USA. 310,000 to 290,000. Interesting.. (This won't last. This current Q2 Nokia will definitely sell far more Lumia in the USA than any last lingering Symbian sales).

Now we have a useful data point. The Lumia USA sales were 290,000. Out of total 2 million Lumia sales in Q1, that means we have 1.71 million more to distribute to Europe and Asia. And those Lumias were on both models, on Lumia 800 and Lumia 710. Did you want to know how those products were split? We can now calculate that. (Remember, I am now adding back the Lumia 710 units also from the USA)

NOKIA LUMIA MODEL SPLIT Q1
Lumia 800 sales Q1 . . . . . 1.24 million
Lumia 710 sales Q1 . . . . . .  760,000 
Total Lumia in Q1 . . . . . . . 2.0 million
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimate from company data, April 2012
This info may be freely shared

Isn't this fun? And now, how about that regional split. For that, I had to do some multidimensional modelling, to get all the numbers to work out across Lumia, non-Lumia smartphone, and dumbphone unit sales, and revenues, to each region and still with the correct totals. As we now have the ASP, I then went back to Q4 data, to calculate also the Q4 regional numbers. I get this split of Lumia region split:

LUMIA SALES BY REGION . . Q1 2012 . . . . . Q4 2011
Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,600,000 . . . .  550,000
APAC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100,000 . . . . .  50,000
North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290,000
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,000,000 . . . . . 600,000
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimate from company data, April 2012
This info may be freely shared

Now, what of MeeGo and the N9? I don't have any data point to get a firm grip, not on the unit sales, not on the ASP, and not on the revenues. But first, we have seen that Elop hates MeeGo and has been going out of his way to discredit that OS and the related phones. Several of his Nokia chiefs for the MeeGo project have resigned in protest. So, we can be pretty sure, that still in Q1, MeeGo has outsold Lumia. The math was pretty easy to calculate out of the Q4 results, the estimate of between 1.5 million and 2 million MeeGo sales for Q4, and my official estimate is, as regular readers know, the mid-point of that, at 1.75 million. I find it funny, that now Nokia did not provide that guidance about Symbian sales to help calculate out the MeeGo sales haha. But yes, I think its a relatively safe bet, that MeeGo still outsold Lumia, else Elop would have been all over the press celebrating how his darling Windows Phone is crushing Nokia's own MeeGo. Lets be very conservative about this, lets call it at just over the Lumia level, at 2.2 million. It would only be 26% growth from the previous Quarter, whereas Lumia sales more than tripled. Bear in mind, the N9 is highly rated and endorsed, while Lumia is receiving at best 'mixed results' and has the highest return rates ever seen by a Nokia phone. So if Lumia was growing, its pretty safe to assume also N9 grew, at least a bit. And lets keep again these estimates very conservative.

Then we need an ASP. I used the same method as with the Lumia, using Eurozone prices from markets with no subsidies, and I get the ASP of 331 Euros (430 US dollars) for the N9. Now we have enough data to populate a really complex multidimensional optimization model, which yields our Lumia, N9, Symbian and dumbphone sales by units sold and total revenues per Nokia reporting region. Out of that, I get these splits for the N9 sales (again, I went back to calculate the same data also for Q4, using the 1.75 million sales level)

NOKIA N9 UNIT SALES . . Q1 2012 . . . . Q4 2011
Europe N9 sales  . . . . . . . 900,000 . . . .  700,000 
MEA N9 sales . . . . . . . . . 100,000 . . . . .  50,000
China N9 sales  . . . . . . . . 800,000 . . . . . 800,000
APAC N9 sales . . . . . . . . 100,000 . . . . . 100.000
LatAm N9 sales . . . . . . . . 300,000 . . . . . 100.000
TOTAL N9 SALES . . . . . 2,200,000 . . .  1,750,000
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimate from company data, April 2012
This info may be freely shared

Thats what I found for you.. I think the Symbian and dumbphone sales are really not that exciting anymore, both falling severely in every market haha.. But these are really rare hard-to-find numbers and I'm confident these are accurate to about plus/minus 5% for the Lumia numbers and about plus/minus 10% for these N9 MeeGo numbers.

Then a few notes on the near future. I was pretty darn accurate calling Q1 sales for Lumia at 2 million when I did this type of analysis three months ago. Now, for Q2, I think we see the Lumia sequential growth continue in Europe and the T-Mobile sales will also grow. Asia Pacific does not seem to have much of any traction for Lumia. Then we add the AT&T sales of the Lumia 900 with the 'zero dollar' price with the refund offer. I think 1 million AT&T sales would be reasonable. The rest of the world would be trivial on top of that. I think the rough number would be about 4 million Lumia sales for Q2. Remember this is totally pathetic for Nokia, who on their previous new platform launch, with Symbian S^3 and the N8 flagship, did 4 million in the first Quarter. Now when the market has grown to 60% bigger, and with the biggest marketing push ever seen by Nokia, they take three Quarters to reach 4 million? Thats lame.

As to the N9 and MeeGo, unless the management wises up really fast, that will be it. N9 could be a world-winner but if they wait until Samsung Galaxy 3 and iPhone 5 are out, the N9 will no longer be the hot phone. The time is running out for Nokia's MeeGo Miracle. But it bugs me, when the evidence clearly suggests it is even outselling the Lumia series still 2 quarters from the launch of both, where Nokia CEO has given the N9 no support, and it is expelled to the remote corners of the planet.

UPDATE May 1 - I have now updated my forecast for Nokia smartphone market share development (was 29% a year ago, crashed to 8% now. I say will fall to 3% by year end. And before you say Tomi is totally nuts, remember my forecasts for Nokia end of 2011 and Nokia now Q1 were the most accurate in the industry, actually by a wide margin too. Read the new projection for this year 2012 and also revenues, average prices profit/loss and the Windows Phone OS ecosystem market projections at Nokia Market Share Projection to End of 2012.

And for those who may want to know 'all the numbers' about the handset industry, consider the TomiAhonen Phone Book. If you buy the 2010 edition, you will get the 2012 edition also, for no extra charge, when it is released later this year. Or if you want the stats and numbers on the overall mobile industry, check out the TomiAhonen Almanac 2012.

Comments

[Sander van der Wal]

What's wrong with these figures for Lumia? 300% growth in Europe, 200% in APAC. Selling in less area's than the N9 and selling only 10% less. The N9 has a similar growth rate in Latin America and MEA, but with much lower volumes. Growth in other regions is tiny. Lumia isn't growing as fast as the original iPhone, but the difference is small, not an order of magnitude.

Much to early to call this a fail, or a succes.

Also, remember that an SDK for iPhone took a year to materialize. Developers are waiting to see whether it will continue to grow. If it does it will attract more developers.

[DS]

I'm afraid it's way too late for stock N9 to make a difference. I've looked at my country local ebay equivalent and you can easily encounter barely used N9s at unbelievable prices (say $200-$250 range). The EOL announcement has killed its desirability and seeing Lumia ads everywhere worn off its novelty and design uniqueness factor. The hardware will be laughable when Galaxy S3 shows up next week.
Nokia could try to move some of them but I don't believe they could fully compensate for Lumia failure. On the other hand some cash is better than no cash, but unless they have HW running Maemo that matches GS 3 or One S and has 41mpx goodness, I don't know.

[huohuoho]

LOL @ N9 selling over 2 milli. How can it be if Nokia hasn't even produced that many N9s??

[Timo Koola]

Nokia reported numbers are channel sales i.e. reconditioned phones would not be part of that 600k figure? Also, wouldn't most Symbian phones on storeshelves be anyway reported as sell-in already earlierly?

@vladkr thanks, I was in no way implying Lumias would be hit phones in Canada. Even if numbers were horrible they would probably be more than 20k?

[vladkr]

You're welcome Timo;

I just tried to give the most objective facts I could. I live in one of Canadian provinces, which is not really the image of the whole Canada.

I know there was some excitement in Europe at Lumia's launch in Europe, but I haven't seen anything similar here (maybe because main media companies own Telus and Rogers competitors).

So it's very complicated to get any precise figures about what's happening at Nokia.

I'm not even sure that official data is 100% true (there is always a way to trick numbers, by delaying payment for instance, many companies do that)

[Prakriti]

@vladkr:
thanks for posting the links and reply.

Here are more recent articles you'll like:
1. Elop says 'Multiple cores just waste battery life'
http://www.phonearena.com/news/Stephen-Elop-says-dual--quad-core-phones-just-waste-battery-life_id28048
2. Elop says 'Nokia is no longer in the Danger Zone'
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/elop-nokia-no-longer-in-the-danger-zone-2012-02-13

My last comment was largely sarcastic-- because I am shocked Nokia seems dying and Finland will lose thousands of jobs first in job cuts etc-- and hardly anybody is trying to raise awareness in a organized way.

There is just nothing like that.... and that's something that makes me wonder-- that either it's not as bad as it looks to us all OR there is maybe something more to the story

[vladkr]

@Prakriti:
Wow, that was quite subtle (or I was quite naive), so I haven't guessed it was sarcasm, sorry. Well done anyway

Many of us see the fire, and want to call the fire squad, but apparently no one has a proper phone to do so, and we just watch Nokia burning/sinking.

My only hope now is that former Nokia talents will group, and create a future leader.

another good, but long reading:
http://crave.cnet.co.uk/mobiles/nokias-windows-phone-bear-hug-is-choking-the-mighty-finn-50007750/

[ejvictor]

Milton, Milton, Milton.... you're new here, seem to be from America and have never even seen an N9 - possibly even a Symbian phone. 1) Find out what QT is. 2)Try other OS's and ecosystems. At this point would you like ketchup or mustard?

[ejvictor]

Everything you need to know about Elop's hate for the N9 in one article.

http://conversations.nokia.com/2012/04/25/sharp-design-is-pencilled-in-by-dad-judges/

Poor Ian (author) probably doesn't want to loose his job, but this article is a triumph of corporate assasination. For your consideration;
1) Headline- no mention of N9
2) N9's photo 3rd down is story.
3) N9's category mis-quoted in story.
4) N9 winner of more advanced category-interactive design mentioned as an "also won".
5) No mention that N9 beat iPad2.

How much does Elop hate the N9.... If Job's were alive (RIP) and the iPhone won this every human on the planet would know this and the stock price would have shot up 4 points. :)

[karlim]

Some pretty cool ideas and food for thought here. And the exercise to duplicate your results, following the way you arrived to them, was certainly an interesting one, even if I failed. As I said earlier- not too good myself with modeling, Excel and stuff. Some observations from it:

Any way I tried to come to it - it seems that the initial thing you did was taking original Lumia launch prices for 800/710 EUR420/270. Add them up and divide by 2. Then use the 1.55 ratio on Eur 220 ASP arriving at your real ASP.

Problem is-ASPs are calculated on real life sales and on real numbers of devices sold. Your whole model assumes 50/50 split between Lumia 800 and 710. How real is that? Possible. Certainly. But just as possible as 40/60, 60/40, 30/70, 70/30 splits and many more in-between. And all the modeling later falls apart if you got that first assumption wrong.

Now moving to U.S sales. And adding the assumption that Nokia sold N710 to T-Mo U.S at the same price it sold it to a carrier in Hong-Kong or Philippines. Which is a rather major assumption too. How you arrived to 290K number, can't figure it out. Did my modelling on my own - and got 5 equally valid numbers for Lumia 710 at 172 Euro ASP, depending on how many of those 0.6M devices sold in North America were Lumias on T-Mobile:

Lumia No. 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Lumia Revs. 17.2 34.4 51.6 68.8 86
Non Lumia revs 75.8 58.6 41.4 24.2 7
Non Lumia volumes 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

Total US revenues 93 93 93 93 93
Non Lumia ASP 151.6 146.5 138 121 70

All possible.

But we do also have “unpolluted” Nokia U.S sales/unit numbers without any Lumia for the last few years. In every Nokia quarterly report. Divide U.S revenues by units sold up to Q1 - and you get an "unpolluted" Nokia U.S device ASP. Which was at a pretty steady 105 Euro in Q3 and Q4 2011, before the first Lumia shipped in U.S

In Q1 2012 ASP jumped to Eur154. And I have seen no reasons to think why non Lumia ASP should have changed radically in Q1. So most of that ASP jump must have come from Lumia 710. Based on that assumption - T-Mobile is much more likely to have sold somewhere between 400 000 and 500 000 Lumia 710s, then 300K...

If I ignore the fact that all those Nos are for North America, which includes Canada too, at least. Not sure where Mexico fits in in Nokia breakdowns.

If we do include Canada - where Lumia 800 shipped in early February on Rogers, and 710 in early March on TElus - ther is no way to tell.

Well, modeling things get even worse for me for all the stuff later.

[karlim]

And that's even before we get to those N9 numbers you refer as fact. Based mostly on so flimsy a source as a comment on allaboutsymbian.com website. A wrong and debunked comment, by aas owner Rafe Bladford himself. But I did post the details quite a few times already - not that you did try to even check it, and see if your numbers are indeed correct. Well, won't go into those details again. Will just repost from previous thread:

Tomi's reference to N9 sales indeed comes from a source. The question is about reliability of that source. Which was 1 or 2 commenters on AllAboutSymbian.com. And a comment that was absolutely wrong on assumptions the commenter made, and that was refuted by original author/AAS owner Rafe Blandford and other commenters. And if you have to rely on that kind of source to make your case, and then you start presenting it as a fact... Sorry, but that will be uber lame for any run of the mill blogger. For a guy who is #1 mobile influencer in mobile "according to Forbes", multiple books author yayda yada yada - it is just sad.

Here is Tomi's "reliable sources" about : http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/news/item/14122_Nokia_Q4_2011-in_the_heart_of_.php#comment-421364228

And one of rebuttals:
http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/news/item/14122_Nokia_Q4_2011-in_the_heart_of_.php#comment-421726142

[Timmy]

@Sander
Lumia selling in less areas then N9? Are you aware of the areas where N9/Lumia are sold? Do I really need to google and copy+paste the list? As german i had to spend significant time and energy myself do just give Nokia my money by buying one. It took 2 weeks till the N9 finally arrived at my home. That was cleaely the most difficult process ever to buy a phone here in the capitol city of europes biggest market.

[Timmy]

@huohuoho
Not representative but here in germany I already saw lots of people with a N9 but no single one with a Lumia. Maybe because we are a high-tech city with lots of developers? Maybe because it is not easy to buy Lumias either since most shops here do not even offee them? Dont know but I do know that it seems to be more or less equally hard here to get a Lumia or N9 and yet N9 seems to sell much better. Maybe different in the US or china. Hard to guess.

[Spawn]

When Nokias Elop aborted Meego he also aborted a whole productline that was about to be released. Tablets.
Nokia was working on Meego Tablets. There where even offocial releases of Meego for Tablets. It seems that unlike with Meego phone there was no contract that forced Nokia to bring at least one device to market. So the tablet got killed short before it was ready.

Till today Nokia does not offer a tablet cause Windows Phone cannot run om tablets. Now taken the success tablets like the iPas have up to today in the market I do not understand why Nokia aborted that productline without any alternate, after the investment was done and short before it was ready for the market. It makes no sense.

[elm70]

Just a little news that goes in the direction of Tomi:
http://www.tesco.pl/sklepy/extra/telefony/nokia.php
Yes, Tesco Poland is not selling any Lumia from Nokia, and the N9 is also discounted now, but 2500 PLN, is well over 500 EUR, not sure anybody in a poor country like Poland, in a cheap shop like Tesco is going to buy a N9 ...

Tchuss

e_lm_70

[KimiRäkä]

NO WAY that N9 has been produced that many units! 2 mil. N9 unit costs 190 € to make no way Nokia has put 400 million into making a PASSING PRODUCT NEVER TO BE RETURNED TO AGAIN !!

-- ALERT -- ALERT -- REALITY DISTORTION FIELD IMMINENT -- ALERT -- ALERT -- START WARP ENGINES AND MAKE TURN -- ALERT

[Edward Bonney]

I wonder about the lack of traction in Asia. There is not much in the way of hard numbers coming out of Asia. Lumia is the second best selling phone after iphone in the third largest telecom operator in China - even third is something given the number of subscribers involved. Also the blown away by Nokia campaign seems on the face of things to be successful in India with Samsung complaining about unfair marketing. Also I wonder how pureview will affect the sales figures although it is just going on sale in May. But maybe I am indulging in wishful thinking here.

In any case Tomi is a pretty bitter guy it seems to me and while I can take on board his arguments about the N9 and Elop and so on, I think it is too late for Nokia to reverse its course and it is better to see this through to the end whatever it may be. AT&T and Verizon have a stake in seeing that Nokia succeeds and so those Microsoft so that gives Nokia an advantage.

[bhakumar]

My son bought an N9. I said why you bought a product that is ceased. He cursed me. We'll see who is right!

[Prakriti]

@vladkr:
thanks for the reply-- BTW, whats your twitter ID ? can you reply this with your twitter ID as "web site url" ?

[P]

Very good interview
http://crave.cnet.co.uk/mobiles/nokias-windows-phone-bear-hug-is-choking-the-mighty-finn-50007750/
* 'Elop has no overarching vision for Nokia'
* 'He sold the deal as Windows Phone or nothing -- it wasn't'
* 'Symbian was Nokia's cash-cow -- Elop sacrificed it'
* 'Android is not the answer'
* 'Today's Lumia phones have stacks of shortcomings'
* 'Nokia is Finland, and Finland is Nokia'