Who Wants Numbers? Lumia on T-Mobile? Lumia 800 vs Lumia 710? How Many Nokia N9?

So who wants deeper info on Nokia numbers? Its time to do some mathematical modelling again. I like my numbers, they are my buddies. And I don't like it that the big smartphone makers are becoming ever more secretive about their product lines and shipment numbers. But when there are some tidbits of data, and some good analysis, we can get pretty close to the truth. Like I did three months ago with the regional split and other data about the Nokia smartphone sales.

So? Want to know how many Lumia smartphones by Nokia did T-Mobile USA sell? I think we know now. What about the split of Lumia 800 vs Lumia 710? That too. I think we can rather accurately also tell where the Lumia sales happened by Nokia's reporting regions.. And with a bit more digging, some interesting comparisons to Symbian and ... yes, with some assumptions, even MeeGo based N9 sales.

The key bit of data we got, was that the ASP for the Lumia series is 220 Euros (286 US dollars). And we know from Nokia Q1 results the regional sales of total Nokia handsets at 600,000 units, which generated 93 million Euros. We could do a simple equation to solve the price and shipment number for non-Lumia price phones, but actually, that would not be accurate. Because the ASP of 220 Euros is for the Lumia series, ie Lumia 800 and Lumia 710 as they were sold during Q1. And T-Mobile USA only sold the cheaper Lumia 710 model. How to calculate that ASP?

Haha, thats easy. Lets go to a country with no handset subsidies, in the Eurozone, and take the launch prices for both phones. Then use that price ratio, as the ASP's for both the Lumia 710 and Lumia 800. Obviously one needs to be below and one above the 220 Euro price, right? But these will tend to have teh same 'mark up' so their retail price and their wholesale price should be in the same proportion, as the two phones were launched essentially at the same time to the European markets. Haha, a little bit of math and voila! We have the ASP split:

NOKIA LUMIA ASP BY MODEL
Lumia 710 ASP . . . . 172 Euros (224 US dollars)
Lumia 800 ASP . . . . 268 Euros (348 US dollars)
Lumia series ASP . . 220 Euros (286 US dollars) 
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimate from company data, April 2012
This info may be freely shared

Now, when we take the Lumia 710 ASP, and the 93 million Euro total handset revenues earned by Nokia out of the USA, we can easily calculate that Nokia sold 290,000 Lumia 710 smartphones on T-Mobile USA. That leaves 310,000 other Nokia phones left, that generated sales revenues of 43 million Euros. That means we also know, they were clearly smartphones, not dumbphones, because their average price is 140 Euros, slightly above the 43 million that was generated out of the various carriers/operators in the USA selling non-Lumia phones. And as there was no N9 sold in the USA, we know those 310,000 Nokia non-Lumia smartphones were therefore.. Symbian smartphones.

Interesting, isn't it. That even after Elop killed Symbian sales in the USA, and then waited to launch Lumia, now in the first quarter of Lumia sales in the USA, Nokia's 'burning platforms obsolete' Symbian still outsold the Lumia in the USA. 310,000 to 290,000. Interesting.. (This won't last. This current Q2 Nokia will definitely sell far more Lumia in the USA than any last lingering Symbian sales).

Now we have a useful data point. The Lumia USA sales were 290,000. Out of total 2 million Lumia sales in Q1, that means we have 1.71 million more to distribute to Europe and Asia. And those Lumias were on both models, on Lumia 800 and Lumia 710. Did you want to know how those products were split? We can now calculate that. (Remember, I am now adding back the Lumia 710 units also from the USA)

NOKIA LUMIA MODEL SPLIT Q1
Lumia 800 sales Q1 . . . . . 1.24 million
Lumia 710 sales Q1 . . . . . .  760,000 
Total Lumia in Q1 . . . . . . . 2.0 million
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimate from company data, April 2012
This info may be freely shared

Isn't this fun? And now, how about that regional split. For that, I had to do some multidimensional modelling, to get all the numbers to work out across Lumia, non-Lumia smartphone, and dumbphone unit sales, and revenues, to each region and still with the correct totals. As we now have the ASP, I then went back to Q4 data, to calculate also the Q4 regional numbers. I get this split of Lumia region split:

LUMIA SALES BY REGION . . Q1 2012 . . . . . Q4 2011
Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,600,000 . . . .  550,000
APAC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100,000 . . . . .  50,000
North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290,000
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,000,000 . . . . . 600,000
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimate from company data, April 2012
This info may be freely shared

Now, what of MeeGo and the N9? I don't have any data point to get a firm grip, not on the unit sales, not on the ASP, and not on the revenues. But first, we have seen that Elop hates MeeGo and has been going out of his way to discredit that OS and the related phones. Several of his Nokia chiefs for the MeeGo project have resigned in protest. So, we can be pretty sure, that still in Q1, MeeGo has outsold Lumia. The math was pretty easy to calculate out of the Q4 results, the estimate of between 1.5 million and 2 million MeeGo sales for Q4, and my official estimate is, as regular readers know, the mid-point of that, at 1.75 million. I find it funny, that now Nokia did not provide that guidance about Symbian sales to help calculate out the MeeGo sales haha. But yes, I think its a relatively safe bet, that MeeGo still outsold Lumia, else Elop would have been all over the press celebrating how his darling Windows Phone is crushing Nokia's own MeeGo. Lets be very conservative about this, lets call it at just over the Lumia level, at 2.2 million. It would only be 26% growth from the previous Quarter, whereas Lumia sales more than tripled. Bear in mind, the N9 is highly rated and endorsed, while Lumia is receiving at best 'mixed results' and has the highest return rates ever seen by a Nokia phone. So if Lumia was growing, its pretty safe to assume also N9 grew, at least a bit. And lets keep again these estimates very conservative.

Then we need an ASP. I used the same method as with the Lumia, using Eurozone prices from markets with no subsidies, and I get the ASP of 331 Euros (430 US dollars) for the N9. Now we have enough data to populate a really complex multidimensional optimization model, which yields our Lumia, N9, Symbian and dumbphone sales by units sold and total revenues per Nokia reporting region. Out of that, I get these splits for the N9 sales (again, I went back to calculate the same data also for Q4, using the 1.75 million sales level)

NOKIA N9 UNIT SALES . . Q1 2012 . . . . Q4 2011
Europe N9 sales  . . . . . . . 900,000 . . . .  700,000 
MEA N9 sales . . . . . . . . . 100,000 . . . . .  50,000
China N9 sales  . . . . . . . . 800,000 . . . . . 800,000
APAC N9 sales . . . . . . . . 100,000 . . . . . 100.000
LatAm N9 sales . . . . . . . . 300,000 . . . . . 100.000
TOTAL N9 SALES . . . . . 2,200,000 . . .  1,750,000
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimate from company data, April 2012
This info may be freely shared

Thats what I found for you.. I think the Symbian and dumbphone sales are really not that exciting anymore, both falling severely in every market haha.. But these are really rare hard-to-find numbers and I'm confident these are accurate to about plus/minus 5% for the Lumia numbers and about plus/minus 10% for these N9 MeeGo numbers.

Then a few notes on the near future. I was pretty darn accurate calling Q1 sales for Lumia at 2 million when I did this type of analysis three months ago. Now, for Q2, I think we see the Lumia sequential growth continue in Europe and the T-Mobile sales will also grow. Asia Pacific does not seem to have much of any traction for Lumia. Then we add the AT&T sales of the Lumia 900 with the 'zero dollar' price with the refund offer. I think 1 million AT&T sales would be reasonable. The rest of the world would be trivial on top of that. I think the rough number would be about 4 million Lumia sales for Q2. Remember this is totally pathetic for Nokia, who on their previous new platform launch, with Symbian S^3 and the N8 flagship, did 4 million in the first Quarter. Now when the market has grown to 60% bigger, and with the biggest marketing push ever seen by Nokia, they take three Quarters to reach 4 million? Thats lame.

As to the N9 and MeeGo, unless the management wises up really fast, that will be it. N9 could be a world-winner but if they wait until Samsung Galaxy 3 and iPhone 5 are out, the N9 will no longer be the hot phone. The time is running out for Nokia's MeeGo Miracle. But it bugs me, when the evidence clearly suggests it is even outselling the Lumia series still 2 quarters from the launch of both, where Nokia CEO has given the N9 no support, and it is expelled to the remote corners of the planet.

UPDATE May 1 - I have now updated my forecast for Nokia smartphone market share development (was 29% a year ago, crashed to 8% now. I say will fall to 3% by year end. And before you say Tomi is totally nuts, remember my forecasts for Nokia end of 2011 and Nokia now Q1 were the most accurate in the industry, actually by a wide margin too. Read the new projection for this year 2012 and also revenues, average prices profit/loss and the Windows Phone OS ecosystem market projections at Nokia Market Share Projection to End of 2012.

And for those who may want to know 'all the numbers' about the handset industry, consider the TomiAhonen Phone Book. If you buy the 2010 edition, you will get the 2012 edition also, for no extra charge, when it is released later this year. Or if you want the stats and numbers on the overall mobile industry, check out the TomiAhonen Almanac 2012.

Comments

[KuntaKinte]

MicroNokia's relationship is as unhealthy as sugar pimp's relationship to a college girl.

Iraq War, Iraq WMD-lie, 9/11 conspiracy, Nokia-Microsoft partnership....

Only during recent years I have learned how stupid the masses are and how easy it is to feed them with lies and play with their complexes.

Symbian was a relic, but it was nevertheless a brand with such attributes that it had a market niche.

Nokia is now with Wp7 just another boring handset maker with inferior hardware.

Nokia, go to hell with your max 4.3" display and tired live tiles ..it's just boring!

[kkk]

I have been using many handsets and as a handset onwer, who owns Sharp SH01-D , Nokia N9 and iPhone 4S. I must say that using Nokia N9 makes me always smile. The swipe UI is simply wonderful. All these phones are excellent, btu there is just something in N9 which I like. When it comes to SH01-D I must say it's excellent, but I feel android still needs some polish how it works....it's not always that intuitive althrough I find custom Sharp UI better than non-modified Os.
When it comes to iOS it needs some rewamp, it's beginning to feel old.... as iOS is "organic os" from design perspective it needs to improve it's looks to look.

P.s I think that steve jobs would have loved nokia n9 as steve jobs was minimalist (no buttons at all). If steve Jobs would have been healthy enough to see Nokia N9 I think he might have blatantly stolen some ideas from it....

[Mush]

@TomiFan: No you don't see that, by reading just my one question. Thank you for the answer though! I didn't know if there is AB for Windows Phone and I couldn't find it by lil googling. Instead I found news about AB creators' initial decision (which was reversed soon) not to port Angry Birds Space to WP and that made me wonder whether there are older AB versions for WP.

@Junk: Uh-oh, you really write some disgusting slander of Nokia engineers... are you proud of your words?

I am not a Nokia employee but I have had dealings with the company and I can tell you there are some very smart and compenent engineers in the company. For me it seems Nokia's core problem has been (and still is?) the management. There is not much the engineers can do if the management thinks that certain areas are not important, like user experience, UI, touch screen (in the past), 3rd party applications, software quality, etc.

[cycnus]

@TomiFan

Where is the angry bird SPACE in WP???

Note: Angry bird Space were build with OpenGL that were compatible with iOS&Android&Symbian&Meego in which WP7 did not support. WP7 have different kind of 3D tech. Therefore Rovio decide not to support WP7 and said it out loud in the interview....

But then.... Microsoft or nokia pour some money into rovio, and rovio revert their statement.

[vladkr]

@Tomifan: Windows Vista works very well too... the first 3 months...

[cycnus]

@Tomifan,

That because Tomi don't want to repeat an answer. You should read before post policy...
about N9 number, tomi already answer in that thread. Read it.

if you follow tomi twitter you'll know that tomi is not lying on the couch watching tv everyday.

and seeing on how tomi can predict the sales number of lumia better than lots of other analyst that were from big company, you should really give credit to tomi, and not question his every moves.

[Auriculares Beats]

Lumia failure. On the other hand some cash is better than no cash, but unless they have

[mobile accessories]

Oh Tomi, when Samsung comes up with the Q1 results, could you please make a division between Samsung sales (How many Android, how many Bada, especially how many ICS and how many devices using outdated Android that will never be upgradeable)? Those numbers would be interesting and I would love to give you some positive feedback even once. ;-)

[jedibeeftrix]

my N9 came from Finland, cheers Elop. ;)

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[Anssi Tervonen]

Just asking: Why do you use the 140 EUR ASP for non-Lumia sales in US although the ASP had been 107 EUR in Q4/2011 and 117 EUR in Q1/2011? I would even argue that it is less than that because Lumia's replaced some of the Symbian smartphones rather than dumbphones. Well, with the 110 EUR ASP for non-Lumia phones I'll get 165,000 non-Lumias, which leaves about 435,000 Lumias. Also there were some Lumia 800s floting around in entertainment bundles and such so maybe 400,000 might be closer :). What do you think?

[Nokia Lumia 900 Black]

Having read this I believed it was extremely enlightening. I appreciate you spending some time and effort to put this informative article together. I once again find myself spending a lot of time both reading and posting comments. But so what, it was still worth it!