Who Wants Numbers? Lumia on T-Mobile? Lumia 800 vs Lumia 710? How Many Nokia N9?

So who wants deeper info on Nokia numbers? Its time to do some mathematical modelling again. I like my numbers, they are my buddies. And I don't like it that the big smartphone makers are becoming ever more secretive about their product lines and shipment numbers. But when there are some tidbits of data, and some good analysis, we can get pretty close to the truth. Like I did three months ago with the regional split and other data about the Nokia smartphone sales.

So? Want to know how many Lumia smartphones by Nokia did T-Mobile USA sell? I think we know now. What about the split of Lumia 800 vs Lumia 710? That too. I think we can rather accurately also tell where the Lumia sales happened by Nokia's reporting regions.. And with a bit more digging, some interesting comparisons to Symbian and ... yes, with some assumptions, even MeeGo based N9 sales.

The key bit of data we got, was that the ASP for the Lumia series is 220 Euros (286 US dollars). And we know from Nokia Q1 results the regional sales of total Nokia handsets at 600,000 units, which generated 93 million Euros. We could do a simple equation to solve the price and shipment number for non-Lumia price phones, but actually, that would not be accurate. Because the ASP of 220 Euros is for the Lumia series, ie Lumia 800 and Lumia 710 as they were sold during Q1. And T-Mobile USA only sold the cheaper Lumia 710 model. How to calculate that ASP?

Haha, thats easy. Lets go to a country with no handset subsidies, in the Eurozone, and take the launch prices for both phones. Then use that price ratio, as the ASP's for both the Lumia 710 and Lumia 800. Obviously one needs to be below and one above the 220 Euro price, right? But these will tend to have teh same 'mark up' so their retail price and their wholesale price should be in the same proportion, as the two phones were launched essentially at the same time to the European markets. Haha, a little bit of math and voila! We have the ASP split:

NOKIA LUMIA ASP BY MODEL
Lumia 710 ASP . . . . 172 Euros (224 US dollars)
Lumia 800 ASP . . . . 268 Euros (348 US dollars)
Lumia series ASP . . 220 Euros (286 US dollars) 
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimate from company data, April 2012
This info may be freely shared

Now, when we take the Lumia 710 ASP, and the 93 million Euro total handset revenues earned by Nokia out of the USA, we can easily calculate that Nokia sold 290,000 Lumia 710 smartphones on T-Mobile USA. That leaves 310,000 other Nokia phones left, that generated sales revenues of 43 million Euros. That means we also know, they were clearly smartphones, not dumbphones, because their average price is 140 Euros, slightly above the 43 million that was generated out of the various carriers/operators in the USA selling non-Lumia phones. And as there was no N9 sold in the USA, we know those 310,000 Nokia non-Lumia smartphones were therefore.. Symbian smartphones.

Interesting, isn't it. That even after Elop killed Symbian sales in the USA, and then waited to launch Lumia, now in the first quarter of Lumia sales in the USA, Nokia's 'burning platforms obsolete' Symbian still outsold the Lumia in the USA. 310,000 to 290,000. Interesting.. (This won't last. This current Q2 Nokia will definitely sell far more Lumia in the USA than any last lingering Symbian sales).

Now we have a useful data point. The Lumia USA sales were 290,000. Out of total 2 million Lumia sales in Q1, that means we have 1.71 million more to distribute to Europe and Asia. And those Lumias were on both models, on Lumia 800 and Lumia 710. Did you want to know how those products were split? We can now calculate that. (Remember, I am now adding back the Lumia 710 units also from the USA)

NOKIA LUMIA MODEL SPLIT Q1
Lumia 800 sales Q1 . . . . . 1.24 million
Lumia 710 sales Q1 . . . . . .  760,000 
Total Lumia in Q1 . . . . . . . 2.0 million
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimate from company data, April 2012
This info may be freely shared

Isn't this fun? And now, how about that regional split. For that, I had to do some multidimensional modelling, to get all the numbers to work out across Lumia, non-Lumia smartphone, and dumbphone unit sales, and revenues, to each region and still with the correct totals. As we now have the ASP, I then went back to Q4 data, to calculate also the Q4 regional numbers. I get this split of Lumia region split:

LUMIA SALES BY REGION . . Q1 2012 . . . . . Q4 2011
Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,600,000 . . . .  550,000
APAC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100,000 . . . . .  50,000
North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290,000
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,000,000 . . . . . 600,000
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimate from company data, April 2012
This info may be freely shared

Now, what of MeeGo and the N9? I don't have any data point to get a firm grip, not on the unit sales, not on the ASP, and not on the revenues. But first, we have seen that Elop hates MeeGo and has been going out of his way to discredit that OS and the related phones. Several of his Nokia chiefs for the MeeGo project have resigned in protest. So, we can be pretty sure, that still in Q1, MeeGo has outsold Lumia. The math was pretty easy to calculate out of the Q4 results, the estimate of between 1.5 million and 2 million MeeGo sales for Q4, and my official estimate is, as regular readers know, the mid-point of that, at 1.75 million. I find it funny, that now Nokia did not provide that guidance about Symbian sales to help calculate out the MeeGo sales haha. But yes, I think its a relatively safe bet, that MeeGo still outsold Lumia, else Elop would have been all over the press celebrating how his darling Windows Phone is crushing Nokia's own MeeGo. Lets be very conservative about this, lets call it at just over the Lumia level, at 2.2 million. It would only be 26% growth from the previous Quarter, whereas Lumia sales more than tripled. Bear in mind, the N9 is highly rated and endorsed, while Lumia is receiving at best 'mixed results' and has the highest return rates ever seen by a Nokia phone. So if Lumia was growing, its pretty safe to assume also N9 grew, at least a bit. And lets keep again these estimates very conservative.

Then we need an ASP. I used the same method as with the Lumia, using Eurozone prices from markets with no subsidies, and I get the ASP of 331 Euros (430 US dollars) for the N9. Now we have enough data to populate a really complex multidimensional optimization model, which yields our Lumia, N9, Symbian and dumbphone sales by units sold and total revenues per Nokia reporting region. Out of that, I get these splits for the N9 sales (again, I went back to calculate the same data also for Q4, using the 1.75 million sales level)

NOKIA N9 UNIT SALES . . Q1 2012 . . . . Q4 2011
Europe N9 sales  . . . . . . . 900,000 . . . .  700,000 
MEA N9 sales . . . . . . . . . 100,000 . . . . .  50,000
China N9 sales  . . . . . . . . 800,000 . . . . . 800,000
APAC N9 sales . . . . . . . . 100,000 . . . . . 100.000
LatAm N9 sales . . . . . . . . 300,000 . . . . . 100.000
TOTAL N9 SALES . . . . . 2,200,000 . . .  1,750,000
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimate from company data, April 2012
This info may be freely shared

Thats what I found for you.. I think the Symbian and dumbphone sales are really not that exciting anymore, both falling severely in every market haha.. But these are really rare hard-to-find numbers and I'm confident these are accurate to about plus/minus 5% for the Lumia numbers and about plus/minus 10% for these N9 MeeGo numbers.

Then a few notes on the near future. I was pretty darn accurate calling Q1 sales for Lumia at 2 million when I did this type of analysis three months ago. Now, for Q2, I think we see the Lumia sequential growth continue in Europe and the T-Mobile sales will also grow. Asia Pacific does not seem to have much of any traction for Lumia. Then we add the AT&T sales of the Lumia 900 with the 'zero dollar' price with the refund offer. I think 1 million AT&T sales would be reasonable. The rest of the world would be trivial on top of that. I think the rough number would be about 4 million Lumia sales for Q2. Remember this is totally pathetic for Nokia, who on their previous new platform launch, with Symbian S^3 and the N8 flagship, did 4 million in the first Quarter. Now when the market has grown to 60% bigger, and with the biggest marketing push ever seen by Nokia, they take three Quarters to reach 4 million? Thats lame.

As to the N9 and MeeGo, unless the management wises up really fast, that will be it. N9 could be a world-winner but if they wait until Samsung Galaxy 3 and iPhone 5 are out, the N9 will no longer be the hot phone. The time is running out for Nokia's MeeGo Miracle. But it bugs me, when the evidence clearly suggests it is even outselling the Lumia series still 2 quarters from the launch of both, where Nokia CEO has given the N9 no support, and it is expelled to the remote corners of the planet.

UPDATE May 1 - I have now updated my forecast for Nokia smartphone market share development (was 29% a year ago, crashed to 8% now. I say will fall to 3% by year end. And before you say Tomi is totally nuts, remember my forecasts for Nokia end of 2011 and Nokia now Q1 were the most accurate in the industry, actually by a wide margin too. Read the new projection for this year 2012 and also revenues, average prices profit/loss and the Windows Phone OS ecosystem market projections at Nokia Market Share Projection to End of 2012.

And for those who may want to know 'all the numbers' about the handset industry, consider the TomiAhonen Phone Book. If you buy the 2010 edition, you will get the 2012 edition also, for no extra charge, when it is released later this year. Or if you want the stats and numbers on the overall mobile industry, check out the TomiAhonen Almanac 2012.

Comments

[Sander van der Wal]

@Timmy

Look at the areas list Tomi posted. If you have a problem with the numbers, complain to him, not to me, as the numbers are his, not mine.

@P
Lee williams is one of the people who got Nokia into this situation in the first place.

[Mush]

N9 still is the best phone Nokia has to offer, I'm just considering buying one myself. Yes, there is not much applications for it, but it has Angry Birds! (Where is Angry Birds for Windows Phone?) And very nice multitasking, which might come to Windows Phone in the next few years :-P

[Jack1059]

I agree Tomi. Nokia will be reduced to a shadow of its former self before the WP7 strategy gets enough traction, if it ever does. Most issues I find with people assessing Nokia (other than yourself) is that they focus entirely on sales figures within the US. Nokia was a mobile phone manufacturer with a truly global reach, except in the US. They simply sold phones everywhere. And offered services in more languages than any other manufacturer. And now Elop has them focused strictly on the US market and MS. Refusing to sell a phone that people want is another jaw dropping mismanagement exercise. Throw all that development cash into the toilet to protect your pet project. Crazy. How this clown still has a job based on share price, market share, sales, is astonishing.

[CN]

@Jack1059

To me it looks like it's Tomi who takes examples from US and e.g. Finland, with somewhat questionable claims on sales boycotts etc. And in response, Tomi gets feedback from many people, arguing his analysis is not necessarily a correct one.

Then again, many people agree with Tomi's view, many don't. You do, I don't. I respect your opinion, you do the same for the one who disagree with you.

Nokia still is global manufacturer with a global reach - with this pace they'll deliver 300-400 million phones all over the World, nothing's changed in that respect. Yes, volumes have come down, but it's still a lot.

I feel US is on top of the discussions due to Nokia's bad history there and now when there is potentially a bit of light at the end of the tunnel, it's only natural there is some enthusiasm, both pro Nokia as well as against them. Secondly, it's US where LTE happens big time (~60% of LTE subs today), along with huge smart phone business. Add the fact that it's Apple's and Google's home turf, so not a surprise it has big focus.

[vladkr]

@Prakriti: Hi... sorry, I don't use Twitter, I'm not modern enough (and I also limit my use of internet to leave some room to enjoy life)...

Anyway, apparently disinformation war continues...

UK will get their Lumia 900 with 2 weeks delay because of "Overwhelming" US demand. I thought that was because of connection problems that have to be solved before, but why not...

I'm sure that with a little financial effort, at Compal they're able to manufacture and ship enough L900 for the UK on time, just like Foxconn did with the iPhone and the iPad.

I can't prove that Tomi's numbers are right or wrong... but what I see for sure, is that Nokia's financial situation is really ugly, nobody can deny this, and even Nokia's CEO can't (cf his reaction about the "mixing" lumia results).

So besides what Tomi tells us, there are facts. Is the WP only strategy a success? Clearly not!

Many will tell me to wait next year, when Nokia and WP8 will kick everybody's ass... Soviet Union officials used to say the same about their country until it was financially ruined and collapsed.

How many billions and jobs have to be lost for the situation considered as being critical at Nokia?

[cycnus]

@Tomi (and Baron95)

Great news:
http://crave.cnet.co.uk/mobiles/nokias-windows-phone-bear-hug-is-choking-the-mighty-finn-50007750/

@vladkr

It's a marketing strategy that Elop use to say the lumia sales is great, and you should get it... It's a fake!!!!

[elm70]

@vladkr:

Nokia capitalization is less then 10B Euro now. So no more then 10B can be lost now from Nokia.
In 2008 at peak, Nokia had almost 100B Euro capitalization, this give you the sense of what OPK and Elop manage do destroy.
Yes, in absolute term OPK did destroy more then Elop, but in percentage nobody could have done better the Elop, -70%

About people that can lose job, this is in the order of 100k, 60k direct employee of Nokia, plus similar for NSN

I think in few quarters, NSN numbers will be looking much better then Nokia numbers

Tchuss

e_lm_70

ps: While Nokia is sinking, I would not exclude that Ballmer will try to approach Samsung for promote his OS, this will be the final deadly hit from Microsoft-Elop to Nokia

pps: Jorma is incredible, he is still supporting Elop, even when all evidence show that Elop is bringing quickly into bankrupt Nokia

[DS]

@elm - tesco may be selling overpriced N9 but you can easily buy one online with much reasonable price http://www.ceneo.pl/13448036 (1$ = 1pln/3,16)

[vladkr]

I just had a look at some Canadian providers' offers - videotron, Fido, Rogers, Telus - Symbian seems to be still popular. There are even relatively recent models (for a symbian) such as the 500 for example.

[CN]

@elm70

60k NSN employees can lose their jobs, due to Nokia's challenges? Wow, I've heard numerous arguments about figures and reasons concerning NSN, but nothing like this.

I'd like to hear why you think that way.

[Junk]

Samsung has already wp7 phones. So what's so special in Nokia havine Wp7? Nothing. Don't you forget that Samusung has enormous R&D capability related to all areas of hardware production needed for handsets. Nokia does not have access to that luxury.

You don't seem to accept this, but Wp7 looks like a handicap's dumbphone, ADHD-kids toy with glaring colourful tiles.

Symbian was shit, but it did not have the same deadlock wibe to it like Microsoft. Do not underestimate psychology of consumer electronics.

2 new emails? No no no...I have tens of new emails. I have dozens of accounts that Wp7 email-app does not allow me to configure. Bing - Shit. Zune - Shit. Skype - Dead Shit. Google search is handicapped. Microsoft hates biggest and most popular infrastructure maker so it is mischievous towards Google apps.

And finally, you nokia engineers seem so thick in the head..you have read your RF-manuals, highschool mathematics and think you are all that. No.... you are just pale stupid looking finno-ugrian apes coming stinking to work while you have read your electronics data books until past midnight... then wanking to internet P£$€ !

[elm70]

@CN

Nokia is controlling NSN board.
NSN CEO has took a hard step on requesting 17k head cut out of 59k head count.
It is almost 1 of 3 had to go.
Full NSN location have been wiped out in Germany, strangely also where they had an important customer location (in Munich is located the HQ of T.O2 Germany)
Yes, the acting of Elop is putting Nokia on verge of bankrupt, the acting of NSN CEO is stressing NSN survival possibility.
On paper NSN was always around break even, Nokia Network was generating profit before be transformed in NSN.
During the merge the Network division from 20k Head did jump to 60k Head, but acquired business from Siemens was less then what Nokia Network was having ... so head cut was needed in the past, acting in the rush now it is extremely "dangerous" ... and again a sign of having one of the worst CEO on the market, the absolute worst CEO of history is Elop in Nokia, the second worst is NSN CEO from India.

Tchuss

e_lm_70

ps: I think is more easily that NSN get acquired, so from then 40k survived, other 20k will lose the job in the acquisition.
Nokia is not looking to get acquired by anybody, so 60k people can be jobless soon. Total is back to 100k : 60k Nokia + 40k in NSN.
As Baron95 would said ... 100k of dead wood :-(
I see 2 total incompetent CEO, more then 100k of dead wood (AKA unfortunate people)

[CN]

@elm70

Thanks for a nice try. Your opinions on what's the role of NSN in this bigger picture of Nokia, are naturally something I can't challenge. Those I respect even though not necessarily agree with. The other statements, you intend to present as facts are on the other hand something I can question. Not only due to number of mistakes you have stated.

To start with, NSN is not reducing 17k from 59k. At the end of 2011, NSN was 73k and it will reduce 17k plus more through divestments. Munich will not be closed, that information has been in the news as well.

Secondly, you seem to see a tight connection between Nokia and NSN and I can tell you it's not as strong as you probably think. You may have seen it in the news that soon NSN should stand on it's own, without Nokia playing any role that even today is relatively small one.

[Cervisia]

@Louis: "A pink Lumia for girls has been announced, showing that Elop understands segmentation"
Unfortunately, he doesn't understand that that segment also wants glitter:
http://www.kyocera.co.jp/prdct/telecom/consumer/101k/design/

[elm70]

@CN

Interesting, official Q4 Nokia report state 71825 employees .. in Q1 2012: 70483
In fact from a different and more reliable source, I got 59k ... now it is already down to 57k.

Official NSN message was to close Munich, then they come out with a Plan B, still the message was clear, dear customer in Munich, NSN can't care less of you ...

The tight connection between Nokia and NSN, it is the main fact, if NSN make money or lose money, this has a direct impact on the Nokia balance, not on Siemens. Siemens was happy to drop 40k "dead wood", that most of them have a 3 years salary cost for get fired.

Tchuss

e_lm_70

ps: The memo from 11.2 from eFlop is the best example of how to destroy a company. The announce to cut 17k people in a single shot, is the 2nd best example to scare the customers, and NSN sell to few customers that expect years of support ... not a mass of consumer, that may be happy to own an obsolete N9 or N8 (obsolete since it will not have any future) ... actually you can replace obsolete, with vintage, and you have can sell antique, people pay extra for get something rare and antique ;-)

[CN]

@elm70

OK. I thought we talked about your claim (?) that NSN is suffering due to Nokia's challenges. Maybe not.

I feel, NSN will reduce staff due to it's own problems, not because of what's going on in Nokia.

[elm70]

@CN

Yes, NSN is controlled by Nokia, and since Nokia start to lose money, Nokia did forced to take drastic action inside NSN, they need to hurry now to sell it or make it profitable ... out of this it came the 17k cut, that is a bit out of the blue ... act in a rush, it is not the best working mode, especially for weak CEO like Elop and the Indian one.

Tchuss

e_lm_70

[CN]

@elm70

Fair enough. What would I know, having Telenokia, Nokia Telecommunications, Nokia Networks and NSN paid my salary for over 20 years... ;-)

[elm70]

@CN

I hope you are not one of the 17k that will have to go.
But be part of a falling company, having be part of the excellence in the past, must be sad anyhow

Tchuss

e_lm_70

[CN]

@elm70

I never said I'm still with NSN. But I have been with them long enough and close enough to the top that I can tell you that whatever happens to Nokia, it will not play a role in NSN's future. NSN has it's own strategic focus shift ongoing and hearing about their recent reasonably good wins, I feel their customers still have the trust.

Yep, excellent it was (wasn't the entire industry?), but if I blamed only the merger, I'd take a very simplistic view - similar approach I can see in these blogs: people try to find out why Nokia is in this shape, present their findings as absolute facts, what happened and why and most importantly a somewhat premature funeral of Nokia. I just can't imagine how many people need to go underground should Nokia succeed.

Sad? Not really. A needed change - and an unfortunate one for some people - likely to give positive results. Just like with Nokia.