Big Bloated Billions Blog - The Preview to Mobile Stats in Year 2012 (plus freebie gift)

Lets look at the big numbers we can expect this year in mobile. And it seems they all are Billions now, when we look at this industry. I find the growth astonishing, and I am not surprised if many of our readers here on this blog feel the same.

Fifteen years ago, when I first spoke at an international telecoms conference, mobile was the little brother of telecoms and had 200 million users, compared to 1 Billion fixed landline telecoms users. When I was writing the manuscript of my first book, mobile had not reached 1 Billion users and ten years ago in 2002, when that book was released, this industry passed the Billion subscriber milestone.

At the time this Communities Dominate blog was launched around my fourth book in 2005, mobile reached the 2 Billion active subscriptions level. By the end of the decade, by 2010 mobile had passed every other technology in its number of users, with 5 Billion active users (or more precisely, active subscriptions) and today in April 2012, mobile has 6 Billion. For a planet of 7 Billion people, it is now only a matter of time, when will the number of mobile phone subscriptions pass the total population of the planet (counted as humans alive, from babies to great grandparents; not like most other technology measure their adoption rates as for example household penetration rates or penetration by adult users etc).

So when will that happen? I am sure many industry analysts will celebrate the 7 Billionth mobile phone subscriber this year and shortly thereafter, cheer that mobile now has more active subscribers than humans alive on the planet. I don't think it will happen this year, but that we will reach that milestone by Spring of 2013. But it is such a fantastic achievement - never in humankind has any kind of technology come close to this level of universal adoption level - it will be broadly celebrated late this year, sometime around November we can probably expect the first who jump that gun.

In reality it doesn't matter if the world has 6.9 Billion mobile subscriptions in use by end of December 2012, or 7.1 Billion. It will be close enough. Mobile will very soon thereabouts reach an unbelievable, until very recently implausible milestone - that there are more active mobile phone subscriptions in use worldwide than humans alive. And yes, obviously a 'subscription' is not the same as 'human user' as some of those mobile subscriptions are machine-to-machine subscriptions (reading our electricity meter for example). The number of 7 Billion subscriptions does not equal 7 Billion actual mobile phone handsets (many people increasingly have two or three or four SIM cards they use on one phone). The number of handsets in use is far less than the total subscriber count.

And the actual 'unique user' count of mobile users is even lesser than that, as obviously many of us as 'one unique user' may walk around with two phones (such as the classic Blackberry from work but iPhone as personal phone) or even three mobile subscriptions (adding the iPad or netbook or the 3G data dongle for the laptop).

6.9 BILLION SUBSCRIPTIONS

So yes, my official forecast for end of year 2012 says we end the year with 6.9 Billion mobile phone subscriptions for a population of just over 7 Billion people. And I think we will see the cross-over happening in the Spring of 2013. But the industry will probably celebrate the 7 Billionth user level during late 2012. Don't be surprised.

What does that mean in terms of actual mobile phone handsets in use? I forecast that this year 2012 will end with 5.4 Billion handsets in use worldwide (up from 4.8 Billion in use at the start of the year). That is a lot of digital pocketable computing power. Most of those handsets are still obviously 'dumbphones' but even then, most of those are cameraphones with color screens, full HTML capable web browsers, are Java capable and support all our standard industry tech like SMS and MMS. We'll talk about those later in this blog, as well as the smartphone migration rate.

The 6.9 Billion mobile subscriptions include multiple subscriptions. I was the expert who first identified this phenomenon and my consultancy TomiAhonen Consulting has been giving the best estimates of the ratio of unique users and multiple subscriptions globally and regionally. The unique user count had passed 4 Billion individuals by the start of this year. How many unique users will we have by the end of the year? 4.3 Billion. The actual 'no bullshit' number for true unique mobile phone users globally will be 61% of the planet. Thats essentially everybody over the age of 9 in the Industrialized World, plus 56% of the population living in the Emerging World. For real! That is a phenomenal number. We are truly abridging the digital divide with mobile. This year, not in accounting gimmick terms, but in absolute concrete terms, the Emerging World population will reach the point where across its whole population, over half will have a mobile phone and at least one active mobile account. Even there, obviously, there will still be regional differences, China, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia will have far higher mobile phone penetration rates than Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Bolivia and Somalia, but nonetheless, the mobile technology is now fulfilling the promise of digital connectivity for the whole planet.

SMARTPHONES PASS 1B IN USE

Then lets look at those smartphones. Last year more smartphones were sold than personal computers of any kind including all desktops, laptops, netbooks and tablet PCs like the iPad, combined. And the margin was not even close. Smartphones sold 486 million units. If you think that was a lot, note that smartphone shipments grew 62% from just a year before! This year I am projecting 745 million new smartphones sold.

First, in terms of technology, the smartphone will become the second most widely sold consumer electronics ever, when measured in annual sales. Far ahead of digital cameras or PCs or TVs or DVD players or videogaming consoles etc. What is ranked number 1? Dumbphones of course (which sell more than 1.1 Billion units this year, when combined, all kinds of handsets will sell at least 1.8 Billion units, and might reach 2 Billion sold this year, actually).

At this point, when we await Q1 final shipment numbers, the smartphone migration rate of all phones sold, is nearing one third (it was 30% in Q4 of 2011). By the end of the year over 40% of all new handsets sold will be smartphones and next year, 2013, half of all new phones sold will be smartphones.

This year the mobile industry will sell about 745 million smartphones. That is a lot of pocket computers and high-power 3G internet devices and cameraphones. Note, first, that it means the smartphone industry will sell about twice as many smartphones as the traditional computer industry sells any other type of computer including the rapidly growing iPad and tablet PC sales. The computer industry itself now counts smartphones as 'real computers' (don't argue this point with me, that train left the station years ago. All six of the biggest traditional PC makers, Dell, HP, Lenovo, Acer, Apple and Toshiba - all say that a smartphone is a real computer). And thus, when counting total 'computer sales' this year 2 out of every 3 computers sold will be - a smartphone. That is massive. Samsung is the world's biggest computer maker and Apple the second biggest, both powered by their smartphone units, not their traditional PC units.

Secondly we will pass the Billion smartphones in use milestone. That will be passed during the late spring or early summer already, as we were at 900 million smartphones in use by the end of 2011 and we will end this year with more than 1.2 Billion smartphones in use worldwide. The installed base is now shifting away from Symbian to Android, with iPhone growing strongly and Blackberry receeding. Windows Mobile continues to be irrelevant in the big picture as does Windows Phone. Of the installed base of smartphones, the Android, Symbian, iPhone and Blackberry quarter control over 93% of the total global installed base. Samsung's bada comes in fifth, ahead of the two Microsoft platforms (including the one Microsoft and Nokia keep trying to sell as 'the third ecosystem' ie Windows Phone which in reality currently is still the 7th ecosystem in smartphones).

At 1.2 Billion smartphones, this year smartphones will close the gap but not quite catch the global installed based of personal computers. That will happen next year, when the world will reach 2 Billion smartphones in use...

MOBILE INDUSTRY 1.4 TRILLION DOLLARS

So then lets go from the mere Billions to the Terrifying Trillions. Yes, mobile was the fastest industry ever to grow from zero dollars to one Trillion dollars in annual revenues - and did it in 29 years, by far the fatest industry ever to grow to that rare class of giant global industries (other giant global Trillion-dollar industries include automobiles, petroleum, banking, construction, military spending, food etc; and most 'high tech' and media industries are nowhere near yet the Trillion dollar level like television, computers, the internet, music, gaming, movies, print, advertising etc). How is the mobile industry growing now? We grew from 2010 to 2011 at a rate of 10% and reached 1.3 Trillion dollars worldwide. This year the mobile industry will easily pass 1.4 Trillion dollars in annual revenues.

Where is the money? Most is not in the handsets haha, its in our voice calls and messages and internet access etc. 1.1 Trillion dollars of the mobile industry revenues will be generated by the services side, or the 'traffic' side of the industry. Voice services will be roughly flat and the past profit engine and cash cow, SMS text messaging will see its growth slowing - while still growing revenues. Total mobile messaging will pass 200 Billion dollars of service revenues this year, of which SMS will still form a lion's share at over 130 Billion dollars worldwide. The second biggest mobile messaging revenue generator will continue to be MMS, increasingly the darling of the media industries rushing to capitalize on the mobile bonanza. MMS will pass 44 Billion dollars in annual revenues this year.

The non-messaging premium data services on mobile will continue to be the strongest growing sector, and grow from 139 Billion dollars last year to over 245 Billion dollars this year. If you think that is smartphone apps, think again. Last year only 12 Billion dollars (7% of the non-messaging data revenues) came from the apps, and most of that was not the type of 'app store' consumer apps you and I may buy. Most apps revenue still last year was enterprise/corporate apps. The consumer app sector generated only 5 Billion dollars. That will grow strongly this year, I project over 8 Billion in consumer apps and the total smartphone app space to pass 16 Billion dollars (half still out of enterprise/corporate apps). But this is the side-show, the vast majority - 230 Billion dollars - 15 times bigger than all apps reveues - will come from the services side of non-messaging premium data on mobile.

20 BILLION IN MAD

And it won't be advertising either. Mobile advertising will grow very strongly in 2012, and reach 20 Billion dollars in total value by the end of this year. That may sound very impressive for some industries that are deeply dependent on advertising like newspapers, radio and the internet; but mobile does not 'need' advertising. It is a pure gravy bonus revenue stream, like ads are to cinema. Mobile data (including messaging) earns 445 Billion dollars this year !!! And advertising will account for... 4.5% of that income. Yes, less than one twentieth of the total revenues of the mobile data industry comes from advertising. This is why carriers/operators don't much care about focusing on mobile ads, and it is outside ad platforms like Google, InMobi and OutThereMedia who tend to do most of the advertising services for the industry.

USERS

So lets then look at those users we have. What will the normal person do on their mobile in 2012? I reported here last year that we have passed the point where the primary use of a mobile 'phone' is no longer voice calls, it is now mobile messaging. The most used form of mobile messaging is SMS, which will grow its user base from the 5.0 Billion it had at the start of this year, to more than 5.6 Billion at the end of this year. The growth rate is slowing as heavy users are shifting their usage to more optimized messaging platfroms like WhatsApp, iMessage, Blackberry Messenger and MXit etc. Still, SMS will be the most used digital service on the planet this year.

Second most used mobile service, will be voice calls, which will grow its user base from 4.9 Billion to 5.4 Billion. Voice call use is also slowing as rival voice services are starting to spread, in particular Skype on smartphones with unlimited data plans, and/or using WiFi hotspots to bypass the costs of the voice calls on the cellular network, especially on international calls.

The cameraphone feature is on most phones, but in terms of active users, as the cameras keep getting better, ever more people will shift their daily camera use from stand-alone digital cameras and camcorders to the cameraphone. The total active user base of the camera on a phone will pass 4.5 Billion users this year.

What of those mobile ads? How many of us will be pestered by ads on our phones? That number keeps growing, and will grow from the 3.4 Billion it was at the start of the year to 4.4 Billion at the end of this year. Do bear in mind, the world has 4.0 Billion total FM radio receivers in use globally (most of those are in the Industrialized World where the number of FM radios far exceeds the human population) and not all FM radio channels broadcast advertising. There are about 2.0 Billion internet users. Televisions number 1.9 Billion. Newspapers sell under 450 million daily circulations. So in terms of which mass media reaches the most broad audience, mobile now totally towers over all other mass media as an advertising channel, not just by theoretical reach of installed base, but of actual consumers who receive ads on their phones.

Then how many send or receive MMS? That number still keeps growing, and reaches 3.0 Billion humans on the planet in 2012. MMS is the second most widely used messaging platform on the planet, 1.5 times bigger than email, 3 times bigger than Facebook by reach.

Then what of news? The number of people who receive news and alerts on their phones grows from 1.8 Billion at the start of the year to 2.3 Billion at the end of this year. That means that if you deliver news and alerts, only through mobile you can reach the pockets of 33% of the population of the planet. CNN and other 24 hour news can only reach about 1.4 Billion TV sets connected to cable/satellite/digital systems. Newspapers only sell under 450 million papers daily.

And of those 'internet users' we have two numbers again. We have the 'real internet' user number which is growing steadily, powered mostly by smartphone adoption and all-you-can-eat data plans. Even though some analysts still report that the cross-over point is yet to come (silly, as IBM and Nokia have already told us years ago the cross-over point has already happened). That number globally reaches 1.6 Billion at the end of this year, when the total internet user number will be something like 2.3 Billion perhaps. Of course many who use their smartphone to access the 'real internet' will also use a personal computer or netbook or tablet PC to acces the internet, so many of these users will use both types of devices.

But that is the misleading number. The relevant number is 'browsing-based content and services' ie the 'mobile internet'. That includes of course the 'real internet' but also any other HTML and WAP based services such as carrier billing (ie WAP billing) for app downloads etc. The actual number of 'mobile internet users' or browsing users on mobile is far bigger and continues to grow, powered very strongly by mobile as the first internet device for many in the Emerging World. The mobile internet user number grows from the 1.8 Billion it was at the start of 2012, to 2.1 Billion by the end of this year.

 

AND NOW - A VERY SPECIAL GIFT

 

And I am ready to announce a very special gift. I have been publishing the TomiAhonen Almanac every year now for many years to celebrate the industry stats and numbers, and to provide a low-cost statistical compendium of the mobile industry. I've been selling the Almanac at 9.99 Euros and released the new edition in early February of every year. For those who really need the numbers, it is a very cost-effective statistical volume, which I also formated for the small screen so you can read it off your iPhone or smartphone screen and keep all the industry numbers in your pocket.

The info in such an annual Almanac will become out of date very rapidly in this industry. So obviously, I can't sell last year's Almanac or the ones from years gone by. I often hear from people whose primary interest is not mobile, but are curious about it; or people who really do not have a budget, for whom even 9.99 Euros is a large amount of money (students, for example) who are still hungry for recent and valid data.

For them, and all of my reades, I have decided now to make my older Almanac a totally free edition. I won't release "last year's edition" but I will make the 2 year old edition available for instant download now, where the license is fully free to use and free to share. The data is obviously two years old. It is enough to give you scale of the industry, it can be supplemented with the various updated data on my blog like in this blog posting. But obviously, if you need to plan a real business, you should be able to afford to buy a 9.99 Euro eBook with all this year's data fully up-to-date.

But yes, if you don't need the exact current data, and only need recent data and are more interested in the overall scale and data from two years ago is not irrelevant to you, I can now offer the TomiAhonen Almanac 2010 as a totally free eBook edition. Please go to Lulu.com and download yours today and save on your smartphone and share with all your friends. If you do then feel you want the latest data, you can go to my website to buy the current edition TomiAhonen Almanac 2012 for 9.99 Euros.

 

Comments

[cycnus]

2 billion handset for 4 billion unique user
wow

do people change their watch or wired phone or maybe television this often?

[vladkr]

Hi Tomi,

I have three questions and one remark:

1- Do your numbers include prepaid-plans users (ie. Drug dealers, mafia, pirates, intelligence agencies who use dozens of phones per persons just as examples, as all these quoted categories won't add 1B users) ?

2- Do you think international intelligence/security agencies can still cope with this amount of communications to monitor?

3- is there a future of TV on smartphones (then increasing significantly data traffic)?

Then the remark: That's somehow strange to think that people have better and easier access to mobile phones than to water and/or food; what a strange world we live in, don't we?

[vladkr]

2nd remark:

France thinks of using 14 digits phone numbers (for mobile phones) by 2014 as there seems to be too much demand for available numbers.

For information, France's population is 66 Millions.

[S]

"I can now offer the TomiAhonen Almanac 2010 as a totally free eBook edition. Please go to Lulu.com and download yours today and save on your smartphone and share with all your friends."

Wow, this was unexpected, Tomi, I'm certain you know that free download is not about signing up to some obscure website, that uses an awful preview only to threat its visitors.

Besides, you do suggest people to download the book and save it on a mobile phone and the book is the ancient one. It still has old-fashioned, hardcoded PAGES.

Any chance you could reissue the book using mobile-friendly format and website that allows free download?

BTW, if you don't feel like doing that for Almanac 2010 (for whatever reasons you may have), Almanac 2009 or even earlier would be just as fine.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi cygnus, vladkr, S

cygnus - yep. The average replacement cycle for all phones has been shrinking and for smartphones is even shorter, and shrinking. But remember, the average is skewed by those ultranerds who want to show off a new phone every quarter or even every month (yes, they exist).

vladkr - yes, includes prepaid of course, most of the world's subscriptions are prepaid. International security can rather easily deal with this volume, as most of the data and traffic is not encrypted. It was the spy stuff with heavy encryption that required all those expensive supercomputers in the Cold War period haha

TV on smartphones is a weak proposition. We do like the always accessable video if it corresponds strongly with the TV schedule (most mobile phone TV does not, there are invariably your favorite programs that are not shown, due to various licencing issues). but even then, we prefer to watch TV on our plasma screen TV and we don't want to pay for mobile TV services. but television-related mobile services are a huge growth business, starting with TV-voting via SMS

More access to mobile than water, electricity yes, even homes. The handset penetration among homeless adults is very high in USA for example - partly as charities find that it is a very useful way to help the homeless, to give them basic connectivity and digital services via mobile. Bizarre industry yes, but people vote with their wallets, they truly find the connectivity via mobile that useful, they will select mobile. Just last month there were news stories from India where homeowners would rather have a mobile phone than install an indoor toilet to their home for example.. Bizarre but true. The 14 digit phone number is eventually necessary as we extend mobile connectivity to non-humans like our pets, our cars, our home robots, our household gadgets, etc etc etc

S - I am but one man. The total downloads of the Almanac are in modest numbers. It is not really worth my while to spend the time to try to reformat it to various ebook readers etc, its not Harry Potter haha.. Its a technical book to support experts in this industry. I trust the value of the tables and charts and writing makes it worth having. If not, its just a file, easy to delete haha.. At least now you can see the full edition also before buying the current version. And I do like to give something to my readers, even though I can't give the current Almanac for free

Thank you for the comments

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Louis]

@Tomi What you're saying here correlates well with this GigaOM report http://gigaom.com/mobile/as-mobile-data-zooms-voice-sms-revenues-slow/

Together these essentially say that Skype was probably a bargain for Microsoft at the price they paid. (Contra to most commentary at the time.)

Why are you so negative on it in your Elop-related blogs?

[Louis]

@Baron Post-paid subscriptions probably can't last as a business model over the long term. Data connectivity is a commodity product that is more naturally sold that way.

The US carriers use incompatibility and local monopolies (so much for the capitalistic US) to oversell their networks. However, even there, the resulting inefficient allocation might start to cause problems. There are already signs. http://gigaom.com/broadband/whos-eating-up-atts-data-capacity-its-not-new-customers/

[vladkr]

Thank you for your answer Tomi.

So if most of the traffic isn't encrypted, isn't it a bit risky to use it as a wallet, ID, to declare taxes, etc. ?

Maybe connections will be encrypted then for those uses, but that will demand a lot of processing power... maybe I should create a server rental company...

Anyway, do you think that despite this high growth in mobile technology, there is a chance of limiting spectrum uses (thanks to 4+Gs) ?

Right now, 700, 800, 850, 900, 1800, 1900, 2100, 2600 MHz (and maybe I forgot some) bands are used by mobile phones only. Isn't that's huge? It's also a problem of radio-pollution (how are we supposed to get any message from space if there is that much noise in our planet?).

[cycnus]

@Vladkr

This is my insight on your question.

Honestly I don't really know how the american carrier manage their network, but I know the way in a country that frequency is shared between several operator.

First, if one area is crowded, the carrier need to create more zone in that area so that it could serve more customer.
example. downtown area
population density 10x higher than outskirt, 100x higher than suburb.
if in suburb area the BTS is 4 km radius (area = 4^2 pi = 16pi = 50.3km2), then in that downtown area it should be around 0.5km2, which is around 400m radius. With this strategy the same amount of area that were more crowded doesn't need more bands.
There were other strategy, for example, most of the BTS have 3 120 degree directional antena (6 antena facing 3 direction), if the carrier want to improve the number of customer they can serve in 1 area, they could use smaller degree, let say 60 degree with the same radius. with this alone, they could manage to serve double the amount of user.

Two,
In united states, the government need to create a block of frequency like in europe and asia. So, create an 8 block of 800MHz/900MHz/...../2100MHz. With this strategy government only give 1 operator 1 block in 1 spectrum. Therefore for example T-Mobile would have 1 block in 800MHz, 1 block in 900MHz, 1 block in 1800MHz, 1 block in 1900MHz, and also all the other carrier.
So, what the purpose of this??? So, there won't be a phone that were not compatible with some carrier. and it would create a more equal opportunity for all carrier and user. and it would also prevent some carrier to lock some user.

[vladkr]

@cygnus:
Thank your for your answer.
To me, it's not just a problem of population and its density. Its a problem of frequency spectrum.

The problem is that each new technology or new generation (GSM, UMTS, LTE...) adds new spectra... and there are less and less available as the old ones (850/900 for example) are still in use, so we begin to face problems with that:

LTE frequencies have to be squeezed between DCS/PCS, radar frequencies and other systems (not to mention Wifi, remote keys, etc.)... what frequencies will be left for the 5G?

I think mobile technologies' future and EMC (electro-magnetic compatibility) issues will provide engineers with more and more headaches.

I also agree with you that will also be a problem for the captive end-user.

[cycnus]

@vladkr,

i believe the carrier/government re-cycle the frequency
for example, in indonesia
GSM have 2 frequency 1800 & 900
CDMA have 2 frequency 800 & 1900

because CDMA is not successfull, and all carrier were bleeding and almost die
the government squeze all carrier into 800MHz and set the 1900MHz for 3G.
(again, because Indonesia is different from USA, moving frequency were easier).
and I heard that one of the GSM frequency is being emptied now for 3G.
so in Indonesia 3G might be 900MHz & 1900MHz or 1800MHz and 1900MHz.

[Louis]

@Baron: All your examples are government monopolies for a reason. The correct analogy is gasoline.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Baron, Louis, vladkr, Tomifan and cygnus

Baron - in very rough terms, three fourths of planet is now on prepaid accounts, but postpaid / contract accounts tend to have far higher ARPU so my gut says revenue wise about half and half. Your assumption of smartphones on post-paid holds mainly only in those markets where handsets are subsidised, otherwise it doesn't matter so in terms of total smartphones sold globally, a little more than half would fit that pattern, in the rest of the world, there are plenty of smartphones sold on prepaid accounts, or on postpaid accounts with no 2 year contractual commitment.

Louis - yeah the numbers are very solid across the major analysts who report on these things. Chetan Sharma's 2012 forecast came with very similar numbers too. As to Skype, did MS overpay or underpay, that is a topic not for this blog, this is explicitly not a mergers and acquisitions or wall street blog. I don't want that frivolous debate here about whose share price is worth what today and yesterday and tomorrow (we make exceptions on specific blog articles and companies when something really significant happens in the industry). But Skype is the ultimate red flag to the carrier/operator community. They will never let Microsoft (and/or Nokia) into their playground with Skype. Nokia CEO just yesterday admitted at the Nokia annual shareholder meeting that the Skype boycott is so severe, many carriers refused to carry any Lumia phones because of Skype - and Skype isn't even part of Windows Phone in its current form, but will be in Windows 8. So for the mobile aspirations of Microsoft, Skype is the death-nail. Microsoft will never become the 3rd ecosystem in mobile, because they own Skype. I have written a whole blog about just that point. But for Microsoft, its main business obviously is not mobile, its the desktop and they lost the internet battle to Google. Skype is a good way to extend the desktop space and reclaim a bigger piece of the internet pie. That is why MS will not give up Skype. They will end up winning the battle but losing the war.

vladkr - first on encryption - we can of course add encryption on top of the transmission layer, so that is not precluded. But in the native form, there isn't one. Note that 3G networks use CDMA which was a 'near unbreakable' military communication technology so in terms of attempting to crack it, haha, even supercomputers today can't crack basic CDMA ie 3G on CDMA2000 EV-DO or WCDMA/UMTS and their evolution paths.

Then on spectrum. There is international mismatch, where given frequencies are not uniformly available. The ITU and national regulators have tried to free up spectrum for mobile ie 'refarming' but its slow going and each country has its own issues and for the industry, they need major standardized blocks of spectrum to make the equipment development worth it. No, I don't think there is anywhere near the required spectrum, we're running out fast and there will be bottlenecks into pretend 4G and real 4G and beyond that to 4.5G sometime mid next decade haha

Tomifan - good point. I do mean by actively used phones, that it is both a handset and subscription currently in use, I did not mean handsets that are rotated haha, it would increase the total number of handsets far above the subscription population, as most of us have at least one older handset in reserve just in case the current one is broken or lost etc...

cygnus - very good detailed response thanks!

Keep the discussion going, will return with more replies

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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[Pieter Streicher]

Hi Tomi

There are 6.9 billion subscriptions and 5 billion sms users (start 2012).

There are 4 billion unique users. I assume then the 5 billion sms users are actually 5 billion subscriptions that use sms?

Am I correct to state that there are 2.9 billion unique sms users ( 4 x ( 5 / 6.9 ) )?

Regards
Pieter

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[smsala]

Thanks your for your answer.
To me, it's not just a problem of population and its density. Its a problem of frequency spectrum.

[smsala]

thank you

[Rahul Sharma]

Hi, Awesome post. Estimaton of data is always vary according to it. SMS users were increases day by day as density of population is increases.Its a revolutionary growth in mobile users after 2012.